Full Slate Breakdown for MLB DFS 6/7:
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My Take on a Consistent MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start an MLB slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target, but gives you a holistic look at the slate as well. Breaking down pitching also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the MLB Carnage Report this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the three pitchers that jumped out to me at first glance, good or bad.
- Zack Wheeler
- Tanner Bibee
- Jon Gray
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Minnesota Twins @ Tampa Bay Rays (-130)
Pitchers:
Twins – Pablo Lopez
Rays – Shawn Armstrong/Cooper Criswell
Rundown:
This game opened with a total of 8.5. The Twins are leading baseball in strikeout rate but will that come into play against Armstrong/Criswell? I am not sure but what I do know is that MIN is struggling offensively and just lost Buxton to the IL. Lopez needs to get straightened out but it’s not going to come against TB, is it? Wander is my leader for AL MVP and I would expect him to steal bases when he reaches tonight.
MIN 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Donovan Solano, Michael Taylor
GPP Note: Team ISO of .173 against RHPs.
TB 5-star plays: Wander Franco
4-star plays: Yandy Diaz
GPP Note: Team ISO of .201 against RHPs.
Kansas City Royals @ Miami Marlins (-178)
Pitchers:
Royals – Jordan Lyles
Marlins – Edward Cabrera
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. I actually think there’s some sneaky upside in this game, mostly from the MIA side. Arraez is on a hitting tear right now while De La Cruz is adding to it and Wendle has woken up. Cabrera is an electric arm with plenty of upside. I think that Witt is an interesting option against him as Cabrera has been hit harder by RHBs at this point in the season. Another multi-hit game for Arraez?
KC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Bobby Witt, Nick Pratto
GPP Note: Team ISO of .150 against RHPs.
MIA 5-star plays: Luis Arraez
4-star plays: Bryan De La Cruz, Joey Wendle
GPP Note: Team ISO of .136 against RHPs.
St Louis Cardinals @ Texas Rangers (-145)
Pitchers:
Cardinals – Jack Flaherty
Rangers – Jon Gray
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. Right back on the Texas bandwagon tonight! I still believe that Flaherty is broken and it’s mostly due to his own mentality at this point. Gray is somebody I reluctantly play but tonight I am going with a little more confidence than reluctance. He’s been very solid since getting hit by that line drive and the STL offense is struggling overall. At some point STL will wake up but it might take a shake-up before that happens.
STL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Nolan Arenado, Nolan Gorman
GPP Note: Team ISO of .175 against RHPs.
TEX 5-star plays: Marcus Semien
4-star plays: Nathaniel Lowe, Corey Seager
GPP Note: Team ISO of .187 against RHPs.
Baltimore Orioles @ Milwaukee Brewers (-145)
Pitchers:
Orioles – Dean Kremer
Brewers – Corbin Burnes
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. Burnes has been dominant against LHBs despite not being his dominant self much of the season so far. That tells us a lot for tonight as BAL’s best bats will be hitting from the left side. The RHBs are struggling for BAL at the moment. The more that I look at the numbers, the more I believe that Burnes ends up as the top option tonight. May what have I done to myself? Tellez will wake up and hit an HR this week.
BAL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Austin Hays
GPP Note: Team ISO of .166 against RHPs.
MIL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Christian Yelich, Rowdy Tellez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .154 against RHPs.
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Chicago Cubs @ Los Angeles Angels (-145)
Pitchers:
Cubs – Jameson Taillon
Angels – Jaime Barria
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9.5. Barria allowed just 1 earned run in ALL of May at the MLB level. He has 6 Ks in each of his last 2 starts that went 5 innings. Maybe he gets us 6 innings but I wouldn’t be shocked by him going 4-5 yet again. Ohtani HR’d last night like I thought would happen and now he faces an SP that he has multiple HRs against in a limited sample. We could see some HRs from the Angels in general tonight.
CHC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Matt Mervis
GPP Note: Team ISO of .145 against RHPs.
LAA 5-star plays: Shohei Ohtani
4-star plays: Mike Trout, Hunter Renfroe
GPP Note: Team ISO of .172 against RHPs.
Arizona Diamondbacks (-125) @ Washington Nationals
Pitchers:
Diamondbacks – Zach Davies
Nationals – Patrick Corbin
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9.5. There’s a chance that WSH does some damage but they don’t have a lineup that I am pumped to stack. I much prefer the ARI side even if Corbin has been average this season. Marte feels like he’s in a great spot and I will gladly plug in Walker in a number of my builds. I don’t mind including Carroll or McCarthy in an LvL spot because of their speed upside.
ARI 5-star plays: Ketel Marte
4-star plays: Christian Walker, Evan Longoria
GPP Note: Team ISO of .160 against LHPs.
WSH 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jeimer Candelario, Keibert Ruiz
GPP Note: Team ISO of .123 against RHPs.
Chicago White Sox @ New York Yankees (-120)
Pitchers:
White Sox – Lance Lynn
Yankees – Randy Vasquez
Rundown:
This game opened with a total of 8.5. We honestly might lose this game from the slate tonight. I have seen images and had discussions with people in the New York area and there are a ton of questions about the air quality from the Wildfires in Canada. If we get this game to go tonight, Vasquez is very intriguing as he is still the stone minimum on DK. The White Sox offense just isn’t getting it done right now. Lynn could get lit up but Judge going on the IL hurts this NY lineup way too damn much.
CWS 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Tim Anderson, Jake Burger
GPP Note: Team ISO of just .141 against RHPs.
NYY 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jake Bauers, Anthony Rizzo
GPP Note: Team ISO of .185 against RHPs.
Detroit Tigers @ Philadelphia Phillies (-250)
Pitchers:
Tigers – Reese Olson
Phillies – Zack Wheeler
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. Honestly, I am shocked the Phillies aren’t a -300 or greater favorite in this one. Detroit is back to struggling and Wheeler can be as dominant as just about any SP in baseball. Full fade on the Tigers bats for me which means I might as well lock Wheeler in 100% for the early slate of action. Schwarber is heating up so at this point we should expect a double-dong today.
DET 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: NONE
GPP Note: Team ISO of .115 against RHPs.
PHI 5-star plays: Kyle Schwarber
4-star plays: Nick Castellanos, Trea Turner
GPP Note: Team ISO of .153 against RHPs.
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New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves (-125)
Pitchers:
Mets – Max Scherzer
Braves – Charlie Morton
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9.5. I am really torn on this game as I love targeting ATL bats, especially at home but Scherzer has been excellent since returning from his suspension. I do know that he can give up HRs and that’s always in play but do I really want to go heavy on bats against him? Morton hasn’t been as sharp at home this season but the overall NYM roster is struggling at the plate right now.
NYM 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jeff McNeil, Pete Alonso
GPP Note: Team ISO of .150 against RHPs.
ATL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Ronald Acuna, Ozzie Albies
GPP Note: Team ISO of .186 against RHPs.
Oakland Athletics @ Pittsburgh Pirates (-190)
Pitchers:
A’s – Hogan Harris
Pirates – Roansy Contreras
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. This is an extreme island game today as it starts rather shortly. The A’s bats woke up against Mitch Keller last night so maybe they go on a little streak and get it done today? The best way to attack him is with LHBs. Harris has given up a bunch of runs in a short period of time but hasn’t been hit very well, which is weird. He does have a walk issue that might be contributing to that.
OAK 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Ryan Noda, Jace Peterson
GPP Note: Team ISO of .131 against RHPs.
PIT 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Andrew McCutchen, Ke’Bryan Hayes
GPP Note: Team ISO of .165 against RHPs.
Los Angeles Dodgers (-160) @ Cincinnati Reds
Pitchers:
Dodgers – Noah Syndergaard
Reds – Brandon Williamson
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 11. I expect both teams to be very popular in this spot. Williamson has looked solid but he has a walk issue and then HRs can follow. This Dodgers squad is definitely capable of taking advantage of both issues. Syndergaard has looked like trash and has come out in interviews talking about how he wishes he could figure out how to get back to what he was. His confidence is shaken at this point and this CIN lineup is very confident right now.
LAD 5-star plays: Mookie Betts
4-star plays: Will Smith, JD Martinez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .242 against LHPs.
CIN 5-star plays: Elly De La Cruz
4-star plays: Spencer Steer, Jake Fraley
GPP Note: Team ISO of .130 against RHPs.
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Houston Astros @ Toronto Blue Jays (-160)
Pitchers:
Astros – Ronel Blanco
Blue Jays – Chris Bassitt
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. The Astros are swinging it with some power over the last week but Bassitt has been strong and he dominated them in Houston earlier this season. I could see the match-up going either way, to be honest. Blanco looked solid in his first start last week but he has been crushed by RHBs this season and we know that TOR has plenty of RH power to throw at him.
HOU 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Yordan Alvarez, Alex Bregman
GPP Note: Team ISO of .145 against RHPs.
TOR 5-star plays: Bo Bichette
4-star plays: Vlad Guerrero Jr, George Springer
GPP Note: Team ISO of .169 against RHPs.
San Francisco Giants (-210) @ Colorado Rockies
Pitchers:
Giants – Logan Webb
Rockies – Connor Seabold
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 11. Coors was Coors last night and we could see it again for the Giants. They are a dangerous team against RHPs even if they do have some swing and miss in them. Webb has allowed just 2 HRs in 33.1 innings of work at Coors in his career. Those numbers make him an interesting GPP option for us against a weak COL lineup. I am not sure if I will get there but I’m intrigued.
SF 5-star plays: Lamonte Wade
4-star plays: JD Davis, Thairo Estrada
GPP Note: Team ISO of .185 against RHPs.
COL 5-star plays: Charlie Blackmon
4-star plays: Ryan McMahon
GPP Note: Team ISO of .149 against RHPs.
Boston Red Sox @ Cleveland Guardians (-140)
Pitchers:
Red Sox – Kutter Crawford
Guardians – Tanner Bibee
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. The weather in CLE is very beneficial for pitching, again tonight. Bibee feels like a guy that we should be heavy on as he’s been hit harder by RHBs than LHBs but the best BOS bats are LH’d. Crawford could surprise some but I am not sure how deep he’s going to go into the game, so that’s a worry for me. CLE has the fewest HRs in ALL of baseball so the lineup shouldn’t scare you away from him.
BOS 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Rafael Devers, Masataka Yoshida
GPP Note: Team ISO of .173 against RHPs.
CLE 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Andres Gimenez, Josh Naylor
GPP Note: Team ISO of .111 against RHPs.
Seattle Mariners @ San Diego Padres (-115)
Pitchers:
Mariners – George Kirby
Padres – Michael Wacha
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. Another, somewhat, island game on this slate. It’s the only afternoon game of the day so we are probably targeting it as a showdown rather than on an actual slate. Both SPs are very much in play but I probably trust Wacha slightly more with Kirby being the GPP upside play. There is a TON of BvP to love for the Mariners so that’s really interesting but they haven’t been swinging it great. Both teams have been underwhelming against RHPs.
SEA 5-star plays: Teoscar Hernandez
4-star plays: Julio Rodriguez, Ty France
GPP Note: Team ISO of .148 against RHPs.
SD 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Fernando Tatis, Rougned Odor
GPP Note: Team ISO of .149 against RHPs.
Stacks of the Day: Main Slate
- Los Angeles Dodgers
- Cincinnati Reds
- Arizona Diamondbacks
MLB Dinger of the Day – Kyle Schwarber, Phillies
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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