Full Slate Breakdown for MLB DFS 6/6:
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My Take on a Consistent MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start an MLB slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target, but gives you a holistic look at the slate as well. Breaking down pitching also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the MLB Carnage Report this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the three pitchers that jumped out to me at first glance, good or bad.
- Mitch Keller
- James Paxton
- Bryce Elder
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Minnesota Twins @ Tampa Bay Rays (-178)
Pitchers:
Twins – Louie Varland
Rays – Zach Eflin
Rundown:
This game opened with a total of 8. The Rays, while being the best team in baseball, have been cool in June so far. Varland could be a sneaky upside play but it’s so tough to pick on this TB squad. Wander just keeps producing and will be one of my favorite plays. Eflin gets MIN at a time where the team’s best players are all struggling. Probably a pretty nice upside spot for him as the Ks should be there in this one.
MIN 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Donovan Solano, Christian Vazquez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .175 against RHPs.
TB 5-star plays: Wander Franco
4-star plays: Francisco Mejia
GPP Note: Team ISO of .200 against RHPs.
Kansas City Royals @ Miami Marlins (-165)
Pitchers:
Royals – Zack Greinke
Marlins – Jesus Luzardo
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. These two teams saw some runs touch the plate last night but I don’t think we see the same tonight. I know that’s tough to say considering it’s Greinke but he faces such a weak MIA lineup against RHPs. Arraez just keeps hitting and is sitting at .399 over 2 months into the season. Luzardo is capable of being absolutely dominant but he’s also known to fall apart in the 4th/5th and leave us wonder what could have been.
KC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Bobby Witt, Nick Pratto
GPP Note: Team ISO of .161 against LHPs.
MIA 5-star plays: Luis Arraez
4-star plays: Bryan De La Cruz
GPP Note: Team ISO of .136 against RHPs.
St Louis Cardinals @ Texas Rangers (-145)
Pitchers:
Cardinals – Matthew Liberatore
Rangers – Dane Dunning
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9.5. I love the Rangers against LHPs. There’s just something about them that they seem to just get it done, despite having more team power against RHPs. Liberatore has looked solid this time around at the MLB level but this match-up isn’t great for him. Dunning is looking really solid while the Cardinals offense has hit the struggle bus, again. Josh Jung is on my Dinger short list for tonight.
STL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Nolan Arenado
GPP Note: Team ISO of .172 against LHPs.
TEX 5-star plays: Josh Jung
4-star plays: Jonah Heim, Ezequiel Duran
GPP Note: Team ISO of .170 against LHPs.
Baltimore Orioles @ Milwaukee Brewers (-135)
Pitchers:
Orioles – Kyle Gibson
Brewers – Freddy Peralta
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. Both teams are coming in on a little swoon offensively so we might look at both SPs. I know the Orioles lineup is a bit more dangerous but Peralta is the more electric SP of the two. Gibson should be somewhat safe but it’s the upside of Peralta that intrigues me, especially with him pitching at home. I keep waiting for Tellez to wake back up but I just can’t count on it happening right now.
BAL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Adley Rutschman
GPP Note: Team ISO of .165 against RHPs.
MIL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Christian Yelich, Andruw Monasterio
GPP Note: Team ISO of .155 against RHPs.
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Chicago Cubs @ Los Angeles Angels (-125)
Pitchers:
Cubs – Hayden Wesneski
Angels – Tyler Anderson
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9.5. I am kind of intrigued by Wesneski because of how strong he has been against RHBs. The Angels don’t offer a ton of LHB upside in their lineup so I think of the two SPs here, he has the sneakiest upside. Ohtani could absolutely destroy him though. The Cubs have a path to crushing Anderson with RHBs but Wisdom has been ice cold. He has had success against Anderson so maybe he wakes up.
CHC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Patrick Wisdom, Dansby Swanson
GPP Note: Team ISO of .179 against LHPs.
LAA 5-star plays: Shohei Ohtani
4-star plays: Mike Trout, Mickey Moniak
GPP Note: Team ISO of .170 against RHPs.
Arizona Diamondbacks (-155) @ Washington Nationals
Pitchers:
Diamondbacks – Tommy Henry
Nationals – Jake Irvin
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9.5. Give me my D’Backs (I have adopted them as one of my favorite DFS stacks this season). I know the wind is blowing in for this one but the total is attractive and I love the upside of this ARI lineup from a power/speed standpoint. I always play Lane Thomas against LHPs while Ruiz is rolling at the plate over the last week. Henry is coming off of an elite performance and while I generally hate chasing that kind of showing, I think he’s in line to be solid tonight.
ARI 5-star plays: Corbin Carroll
4-star plays: Jake McCarthy, Ketel Marte
GPP Note: Team ISO of .177 against RHPs.
WSH 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Lane Thomas, Keibert Ruiz
GPP Note: Team ISO of .133 against LHPs.
Chicago White Sox @ New York Yankees (-165)
Pitchers:
White Sox – Lucas Giolito
Yankees – Clarke Schmidt
Rundown:
This game opened with a total of 8.5. I want to go out on a limb here and say that Benintendi will hit his first HR of the season tonight. Wow, that felt really dirty to type. The Yankees’ power could come into play here as Giolito loves pitching up in the zone. We could see a ton of easy fly outs or we could see the Yankees hit 4 HRs tonight. Both options are definitely on the table. I prefer to go with the hitters in this spot against Giolito.
CWS 5-star plays: Andrew Benintendi
4-star plays: Andrew Vaugh, Jake Burger
GPP Note: Team ISO of just .140 against RHPs.
NYY 5-star plays: Aaron Judge
4-star plays: Jake Bauers, Giancarlo Stanton
GPP Note: Team ISO of .186 against RHPs.
Detroit Tigers @ Philadelphia Phillies (-178)
Pitchers:
Tigers – Tyler Alexander/Garrett Hill
Phillies – Taijuan Walker
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9.5. I generally like to pick on Walker but we just can’t do it today. The Tigers offense is so booty and they are struggling mightily at the moment. The Phillies bats should be in a great spot if Hill is 100% the long-reliever. I think we see Harper pick up a couple of extra-base hits tonight while Schwarber could bring us a double-dong performance since it is June, after all.
DET 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Nick Maton, Spencer Torkelson
GPP Note: Team ISO of .117 against RHPs.
PHI 5-star plays: Bryce Harper
4-star plays: Nick Castellanos, Kyle Schwarber
GPP Note: Team ISO of .154 against RHPs (G.Hill).
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New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves (-170)
Pitchers:
Mets – Carlos Carrasco
Braves – Bryce Elder
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9.5. The Mets offense has been struggling recently and Elder is leading the NL in ERA. I was shocked to see a 9.5 total with how much they have been struggling. Elder has been hit harder by RHBs this season so I guess there’s a route to NYM success. Things definitely do not lineup to be in Carrasco’s favor in this spot. I know some of the Braves lineup has hit a bit of a swoon but there’s so much power in this lineup.
NYM 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Starling Marte, Mark Canha
GPP Note: Team ISO of .148 against RHPs.
ATL 5-star plays: Ronald Acuna, Matt Olson
4-star plays: Eddie Rosario, Ozzie Albies
GPP Note: Team ISO of .186 against RHPs.
Oakland Athletics @ Pittsburgh Pirates (-285)
Pitchers:
A’s – James Kaprielian
Pirates – Mitch Keller
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. Not an overly exciting game other than Keller being super chalky. He has shown some issues the last couple of starts but he’s a massive favorite against the worst team in baseball, potentially in history. I think PIT could be an under the radar option but I am not sure how I want to stack them in this spot. LHBs have done far more damage to Kaprielian than RHBs have at this point.
OAK 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Ryan Noda
GPP Note: Team ISO of .124 against RHPs.
PIT 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Ji Hwan Bae, Ke’Bryan Hayes
GPP Note: Team ISO of .165 against RHPs.
Los Angeles Dodgers (-190) @ Cincinnati Reds
Pitchers:
Dodgers – Tony Gonsolin
Reds – Luke Weaver
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 10.5. We get the huge announcement today that Elly de la Cruz is getting called up for his MLB debut. I would assume he’s in the lineup immediately. The issue I have is that Gonsolin has been more of a reverse splits guy. Elly is going to be super popular at min price on DK. The Dodgers are in such a great spot against Weaver as I have to jump off of my recent Weaver love train.
LAD 5-star plays: Mookie Betts
4-star plays: Freddie Freeman, JD Martinez (might move to a 5-Star)
GPP Note: Team ISO of .209 against RHPs.
CIN 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Spencer Steer, Elly de la Cruz
GPP Note: Team ISO of .133 against RHPs.
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Houston Astros @ Toronto Blue Jays (-135)
Pitchers:
Astros – Hunter Brown
Blue Jays – Kevin Gausman
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. This is such an interesting game with 2 of the highest priced SPs on the slate. Brown has been a pretty strong reverse splits guy this season which doesn’t align well for this match-up given the RH power that TOR offers. Gausman was lit up by HOU earlier this season but he’s been an absolute animal at home so far. I think he gets it done tonight after Manoah looked like a pile of shit last night (and for nearly the entire season so far).
HOU 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Kyle Tucker, Alex Bregman
GPP Note: Team ISO of .145 against RHPs.
TOR 5-star plays: Bo Bichette
4-star plays: Vlad Guerrero Jr
GPP Note: Team ISO of .166 against RHPs.
San Francisco Giants (-140) @ Colorado Rockies
Pitchers:
Giants – John Brebbia/Sean Manaea
Rockies – Dinelson Lamet
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 11.5. I know there is some potential weather in COL but I also know that the wind is expected to be blowing out to CF. I don’t mind considering Manaea as the long man but this just might not be the spot to take a shot with him. With the wind and the pitchers on the mound, I think we could see some HRs in this spot. I am curious to see what the SF lineup looks like against Lamet.
SF 5-star plays: Michael Conforto
4-star plays: Mike Yastrzemski
GPP Note: Team ISO of .183 against RHPs.
COL 5-star plays: Randal Grichuk
4-star plays: Jurickson Profar
GPP Note: Team ISO of .128 against LHPs.
Boston Red Sox @ Cleveland Guardians (EVEN)
Pitchers:
Red Sox – James Paxton
Guardians – Shane Bieber
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. The weather in this one screams pitching but Bieber just hasn’t been all that elite this season. Paxton faces a team with a lower K rate but they have had some big K games this season. The Guardians have hit just 10 HRs against LHPs this season. Those 10 HRs have come in approx. 610 PAs. Yeah, they don’t have a whole lot of power in the lineup. Give me James Paxton tonight.
BOS 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Rafael Devers, Jarren Duran
GPP Note: Team ISO of .174 against RHPs.
CLE 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Andres Gimenez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .128 against LHPs.
Seattle Mariners @ San Diego Padres (-135)
Pitchers:
Mariners – Logan Gilbert
Padres – Joe Musgrove
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. This game feels like it has a wide range of outcomes. I understand that the most likely outcome is a strong pitchers duel but I also believe we could see both SPs out by inning 4 and 12 runs on the board in the 7th. Musgrove has been hit harder by RHBs and the Mariners have a number of dangerous ones. Gilbert has been solid all season but struggled recently and some of SD is starting to finally heat up, led by the resurgent Gary Sanchez?
SEA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Julio Rodriguez, Ty France
GPP Note: Team ISO of .146 against RHPs.
SD 5-star plays: Gary Sanchez
4-star plays: Manny Machado, Juan Soto
GPP Note: Team ISO of .150 against RHPs.
Stacks of the Day: Main Slate
- Los Angeles Dodgers
- Atlanta Braves
- Arizona Diamondbacks
MLB Dinger of the Day – JD Martinez, Dodgers
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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