Hello again everybody, and welcome to today’s MLB Full Count breakdown! I’m nilly and I run the carnage report and DraftKings tiers tools. I also coach NASCAR, so be sure to check us out every weekend over there, too. We get three early games followed by a 12-game main slate for this final Friday in June. That may not be as many as some other big slates, but hey, we can still have fun with it. There’s a lot to cover, so let’s get to it!
A look at pitchers
We have quite the variety of options today, though it’s not all for the good. Nearly half of the starters today have recent SIERAs north of 4.5, so we could see plenty of fireworks to get us ready for the 4th. On the flip side, seven starters carry KSCOREs that are above the 500 mark, so we should be able to find some comfort for cash games. One such pitcher is a bottom-dollar one who will face the soft Oakland offense, so perhaps he’ll be a popular tournament option. As always be sure to check out the coach’s notes page to see who they are most interested in.
Early games
Cleveland Guardians at Chicago Cubs
We’ll kick things off with the Guardians and Cubs, with Quantrill and Steele on the mound. We get a reasonable 8.5 total for this one, with the Cubbies being the favored group. If both starters continue with how they’ve been trending recently, that will likely come to fruition.
Guardians 4.5 star plays – Ramirez
Guardians 3.5 star plays – Bell/Rosario
GPP note – Steele is coming in with some good momentum and isn’t allowing a whole lot of power, so cherry picking the right bats will be vital.
Cubs 4.5 star plays – Suzuki/Hoerner
Cubs 4 star plays – Happ/Bellinger
GPP note – Quantrill is going the opposite way of Steele, as his strikeouts are on the decline while his allowed power is on the rise.
San Diego Padres at Cincinnati Reds
Next up we have the Padres and Reds, with Lugo and Ashcraft to get the start. This 11.0 total feels like a mini-Coors game, so hopefully the rain will stay away. As usual, be sure to keep an eye on the skies in case things turn for the worse.
Padres 5 star plays – Soto/Tatis
Padres 4 star plays – Machado/Bogaerts, Kim
GPP note – Ashcraft is allowing tons to both sides of the plate and carries a low strikeout rate, so it’s all systems go here.
Reds 4.5 star plays – De La Cruz, Fraley
Reds 4 star plays – India/McLain
GPP note – Lugo is allowing some power to lefties but has been strict to righties, so traditional splits may work best here.
Washington Nationals at Philadelphia Phillies
Gray and the Nationals will take on Sanchez and the Phillies next, and with them we have a 9.0 total. The home team is once again favored here, and seeing as they’ll get a shot at Gray and the soft Washington offense, that shouldn’t be much of a surprise.
Nationals 4 star plays – Thomas
Nationals 3.5 star plays – Candelario
GPP note – Lefties are getting more power out of Sanchez than righties, so don’t be afraid to give them a shot.
Phillies 5 star plays – Harper
Phillies 4 star plays – Schwarber, Castellanos/Turner, Marsh
GPP note – Gray allows good xwOBA to both sides and extra power to righties.
Main slate
Milwaukee Brewers at Pittsburgh Pirates
We’ll switch over to the main now, starting with the Brewers and Pirates. Peralta and Bido will get the start here, and Vegas is giving them an 8.5 total to start out with. I don’t mind some contrarian action here, as I could see the Pirates pulling an upset here.
Brewers 4.5 star plays – Yelich
Brewers 3.5 star plays – Tellez/Winker
GPP note – Bido can be pretty tough considering where his salary is at, but he is allowing modest wOBA to lefties.
Pirates 4 star plays – McCutchen/Suwinski
Pirates 3.5 star plays – Reynolds/Santana
GPP note – Peralta is allowing above-average power to both sides, though he does carry a solid strikeout rate. These bats won’t be popular, so don’t be afraid to try some contrarian stacks.
Minnesota Twins at Baltimore Orioles
Lopez and the Twins will take on Kremer and the Orioles next, along with another 8.5 total. Vegas has this one split down the middle, though if I had to pick a side, I like the visitors just a wee bit more.
Twins 4.5 star plays – Buxton/Correa
Twins 3.5 star plays – Julien/Kepler
GPP note – This is also a good hedge spot, as Kremer allows good power to both sides but also carries a decent strikeout rate.
Orioles 4 star plays – Santander/Rutschman, Mullins
Orioles 3.5 star plays – O’Hearn
GPP note – Lopez has been tough and isn’t allowing much power to either side, so be careful with stacking blindly here.
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Boston Red Sox at Toronto Blue Jays
We’ll head across the border next, as Paxton and the Red Sox will take on Berrios and the Blue Jays. Despite the solid pitching, we still have a 9.0 total, so this could be a good spot to get some hedging action if you don’t plan to anywhere else.
Red Sox 4.5 star plays – Devers/Yoshida
Red Sox 4 star plays – Verdugo/Duran/Turner
GPP note – A decent spot without a ton of Vegas love, these bats could be useful for pivot stacking.
Blue Jays 4.5 star plays – Guerrero/Springer
Blue Jays 3.5 star plays – Bichette/Merrifield, chapman
GPP note – Paxton has been tough and carries a solid strikeout rate, but these bats are getting a fair amount of Vegas love. It might not be a terrible idea to pivot away if they look to be too chalky.
San Francisco Giants at New York Mets
Next up we have Cobb and the Giants set to take on Carrasco and the Mets. Vegas has this 9.0 split down the middle with an ever-so-slight nod to the visitors. If Carrasco’s woes continue, I could see the Giants doing better than expected here, so we’ll see if they can pounce on the opportunity.
Giants 4.5 star plays – Pederson
Giants 4 star plays – Davis
GPP note – Carrasco is allowing good power and contact to both sides of the plate, so you can go after him from either angle here.
Mets 4.5 star plays – Lindor, Alonso
Mets 4 star plays – Nimmo/McNeil, Phgam
GPP note – Cobb is allowing some power to righties, so be sure to have exposure to them along with the lefties.
Miami Marlins at Atlanta Braves
Moving right along, we next have Hoeing and the Marlins taking on Soroko and the Braves. I don’t have any Vegas insight as of early this morning, though I’ll go out on a limb here and say that they’ll like Atlanta. However, Soroka hasn’t been as strong as he could be, so we could see some back-and-forth action going on.
Marlins 4 star plays – Chisholm/De La Cruz/Arraez/Soler
Marlins 3.5 star plays – Cooper
GPP note – A few of these bats are hitting righties for power, so some medium or large-sized pivot stacking could be useful.
Braves 5 star plays – Acuna
Braves 4 star plays – Olson/Riley/Albies, Murphy
GPP note – Hoeing is allowing a big chunk of power to righties, which certainly bodes well for this offense.
Houston Astros at Texas Rangers
We have some Texas heat for our next matchup, as Blanco and the Astros will take on Gray and the Rangers. We get a 9.5 total for these two, with the home team as the favorite. Overall I think that’s a fair assessment, but I could see some of the Houston bats getting a few licks in.
Astros 4.5 star plays – Tucker
Astros 4 star plays – Bregman/Altuve
GPP note – Gray isn’t allowing much to righties but lefties are getting some power out of him.
Rangers 5 star plays – Seager, Semien
Rangers 4 star plays – Lowe/Garcia, Heim
GPP note – Blanco allows all sorts of contact and power to both sides, so all is fair here.
Detroit Tigers at Colorado Rockies
We’ll head to good ol’ Coors next, as Lorenzen and the Tigers will take on Gomber and the Rockies. We get a modest (for Coors) 11.5 total, but also a handful of budget bombers, so that should make up for it. Either way, it’s Coors, so you know the drill!
Tigers 4.5 star plays – Cabrera
Tigers 4 star plays – Torkelson/Baez/Haase
GPP note – Cheap bats against a gas can at Coors, joy!
Rockies 5 star plays – McMahon
Rockies 4 star plays – Bryant/Profar/Cron
GPP note – Same as above, though not quite as cheap.
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Los Angeles Dodgers at Kansas City Royals
We’ll head to the K next as Miller and the Dodgers will take on Marsh and my Royals. This isn’t exactly a hitter’s Paradise, but we still have a 10.0 total. The visitors are getting north of six of those runs to themselves, which isn’t hard to see considering they’ll get some soft pitching.
Dodgers 5 star plays – Freeman/Betts
Dodgers 4 star plays – Martinez/Smith, Muncy
GPP note – It’s hard to know what to expect out of Marsh, but if Vegas is any indicator, it’s probably not much.
Royals 4 star plays – Perez/Witt
Royals 3.5 star plays – Olivares
GPP note – Not a good spot and not much love from Vegas, but at least nobody will be on them?
New York Yankees at St Louis Cardinals
We take a trip down I-70 for our next game as the Yankees will take on the Cardinals. Severino and Liberatore will get the start, along with a 9.5 total. Vegas has this one split down the middle, but I’m going to give my nod of approval to the home team.
Yankees 4.5 star plays – Torres
Yankees 4 star plays – Rizzo/Stanton
GPP note – Liberatore allows good power to both sides and doesn’t carry a ton of strikeout upside, making him a good target to attack with stacks of any size.
Cardinals 5 star plays – Goldschmidt
Cardinals 4 star plays – Arenado, Nootbaar/Gorman/Donovan
GPP note – Same idea for these bats too, though they’re hitting righties better than the Yankees are hitting lefties.
Arizona Diamondbacks at Los Angeles Angels
We’ll head out west for our final three games, starting with the Diamondbacks and Angels. Henry and Griffin will get the start here, and with them, a healthy 9.5 total. The home team is favored here, and while I do agree, I don’t think the Diamondbacks will go down without a fight.
Diamondbacks 4.5 star plays – Carroll
Diamondbacks 4 star plays – Marte/Walker
GPP note – Canning can be a tough target but he is allowing some power to righties, making him a decent hedge option.
Angels 5 star plays – Trout/Ohtani
Angels 4 star plays – Drury/Escobar
GPP note – Henry allows good power to both sides, so both studs as well as some other lefties can be used here along with the righties.
Chicago White Sox at Oakland Athletics
Banks and the White Sox will take on Medina and the Athletics next. Though there is no Vegas insight as of yet, I assume that the visitors will be favored here. However, there are plenty of cheap bats on both sides that are in a decent spot, so don’t overlook this one.
White Sox 5 star plays – Robert
White Sox 4 star plays – Anderson/Vaughn, Benintendi
GPP note – Like the Braves, the righties are in a great spot here, so don’t be afraid to run them.
Athletics 4 star plays – Diaz/Ruiz
Athletics 3.5 star plays – Rooker/Perez
GPP note – Banks allows some decent power to both sides but also carries some strikeout upside on a budget, so consider some SP2 hedging here.
Tampa Bay Rays at Seattle Mariners
And finally, we’ll wrap up the day with the Rays and Mariners. McClanahan and Miller get the start, and they get the lowest total on the day at 7.5. That’s certainly a low total for all the big bats here, so if you haven’t done so anywhere else, consider hedging both sides as the lowest floors match the highest ceilings here.
Rays 4.5 star plays – Arozarena
Rays 4 star plays – Franco/Diaz, Siri
GPP note – Miller can be tough, but he is allowing good power to both sides. Consider hedging here if you haven’t done so anywhere else.
Mariners 4 star plays – Rodriguez/Hernandez
Mariners 3.5 star plays – France/Suarez
GPP note – Tough spot facing McClanahan, though you can hedge or run some small or medium-sized contrarian stacks here.
And that’s going to do it for this one. Thanks for joining me, and be sure to check out the coach’s notes page to see who they are most interested in. Best of luck today!
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