Full Slate Breakdown for MLB DFS 6/28:
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My Take on a Consistent MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start an MLB slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target, but gives you a holistic look at the slate as well. Breaking down pitching also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the MLB Carnage Report this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the three pitchers that jumped out to me at first glance, good or bad.
- Blake Snell
- Braxton Garrett
- Aaron Nola
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Minnesota Twins @ Atlanta Braves (-165)
Pitchers:
Twins – Kenta Maeda
Braves – Kolby Allard
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 10. The Braves’ team ISO jumped .005 against RHPs after last night’s game. That’s impressive to do this deep into the season. Maeda looked strong in his return from the IL but that came against DET. ATL is not DET by any means. Allard has made 2 starts at AAA and looked decent but he threw just 107 pitches across the two starts. We are probably looking at a 4 inning performance out of him today.
MIN 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Royce Lewis, Byron Buxton
GPP Note: Team ISO of .158 against LHPs.
ATL 5-star plays: Ronald Acuna Jr
4-star plays: Matt Olson, Marcel Ozuna
GPP Note: Team ISO of .209 against RHPs.
Cincinnati Reds @ Baltimore Orioles (-178)
Pitchers:
Reds – Luke Weaver
Orioles – Kyle Gibson
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9.5. I am looking forward to some runs being scored in this one. The Reds bats have been better than the majority of the BAL bats have recently but I think it’s BAL that gets it done tonight. I don’t hate the idea of game stacking this one in hopes of a 10-8 kind of game. Fraley has crushed Gibson in previous meetings while Santander is rolling at the plate for the O’s.
CIN 5-star plays: Jake Fraley
4-star plays: Elly De La Cruz, Matt McLain
GPP Note: Team ISO of .153 against RHPs.
BAL 5-star plays: Anthony Santander
4-star plays: Gunnar Henderson, Jordan Westburg
GPP Note: Team ISO of .174 against RHPs.
Miami Marlins (-120) @ Boston Red Sox
Pitchers:
Marlins – Braxton Garrett
Red Sox – Kaleb Ort/Long Reliever
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9.5. I really have a hard time believing this game approaches the total. I get that we like to target offenses in Fenway but the Marlins are such a weak offense, facing a bullpen game. The Red Sox are far more dangerous against RHPs than LHPs and Garrett has been spectacular for a while now. He offers a ton of K upside in this spot. Maybe I will eat my words but right now, the under is such a strong bet for me.
MIA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Luis Arraez, Bryan De La Cruz
GPP Note: Team ISO of .135 against RHPs.
BOS 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Justin Turner, Adam Duvall
GPP Note: Team ISO of .159 against LHPs.
San Diego Padres (-165) @ Pittsburgh Pirates
Pitchers:
Padres – Blake Snell
Pirates – Mitch Keller
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total 0f 8. We get a pretty strong SP match-up in this one. Snell has been absolutely dominant after a horrendous start to the season. Keller hit a bit of a rough stretch but has looked better recently. It helps that he’s RH’d because SD definitely struggles more with RH’d pitchers. It feels dirty yet again but Blake Snell is going to be one of my top pitchers on this slate, this evening.
SD 5-star plays: Manny Machado
4-star plays: Juan Soto
GPP Note: Team ISO of .152 against RHPs.
PIT 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Andrew McCutchen, Henry Davis
GPP Note: Team ISO of .148 against LHPs.
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Tampa Bay Rays (-155) @ Arizona Diamondbacks
Pitchers:
Rays – Zach Eflin
D’Backs – Zach Davies
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. Eflin is the most expensive SP on DK but he has made it into my fade category tonight. I just don’t love using SPs against ARI and I didn’t follow that yesterday. Davies isn’t worth the time to research as the Rays should hit him hard. It feels like a great time for some of the TB bats to wake up, mostly Josh Lowe and Wander Franco. Ketel and Walker just keep getting it done for ARI.
TB 5-star plays: Josh Lowe
4-star plays: Yandy Diaz, Jose Siri
GPP Note: Team ISO of .196 against RHPs.
ARI 5-star plays: Corbin Carroll
4-star plays: Ketel Marte, Christian Walker
GPP Note: Team ISO of .183 against RHPs.
Los Angeles Dodgers (-210) @ Colorado Rockies
Pitchers:
Dodgers – Michael Grove
Rockies – Kyle Freeland
Rundown:
We are still waiting on the game total but I would assume we see it at 12. The Dodgers have absolutely smashed LHPs this season, which is kind of weird to see given that they can be pretty LH heavy. They’ve been just mediocre against Freeland in previous meetings. Grove is who I assume gets the start but it’s nothing official yet. The Rockies lineup has been struggling of late but I just can’t trust Grove in Coors.
LAD 5-star plays: Will Smith, Freddie Freeman
4-star plays: Mookie Betts, JD Martinez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .236 against LHPs.
COL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Ryan McMahon, Ezequiel Tovar
GPP Note: Team ISO of .151 against RHPs.
New York Yankees (-155) @ Oakland Athletics
Pitchers:
Yankees – Domingo German
A’s – JP Sears
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. I feel like I saw this game actually open at 8 but it came down pretty quickly. I think JP Sears is super interesting with how he has thrown of late. The Yankees lineup has been below average for a while now and this park is excellent for pitching. German hasn’t been great but it’s impossible to ignore the match-up with the weak hitting Athletics. I do think there’s a chance a NYY mini-stack comes alive but that’s mostly a gut feeling at this point.
NYY 5-star plays: Harrison Bader
4-star plays: Giancarlo Stanton, Anthony Volpe
GPP Note: Team ISO of .184 against LHPs.
OAK 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Tony Kemp
GPP Note: Team ISO of just .128 against RHPs.
San Francisco Giants @ Toronto Blue Jays
Pitchers:
Giants – Logan Webb
Blue Jays – Chris Bassitt
Rundown:
We are waiting on the Blue Jays to announce and SP. Bassitt would be pitching on normal rest so he’s who I am assuming takes the ball. Webb is such a strong SP that I don’t think we can trust TOR but they have the lineup that does damage to a reverse splits RHP. Vlad and Bichette are a great mini-stack combo on this slate and they should be pretty low owned overall. I haven’t made my rankings but I would put TOR in the 10-12 range.
SF 5-star plays: Joc Pederson
4-star plays: Patrick Bailey
GPP Note: Team ISO of .175 against RHPs.
TOR 5-star plays: Vlad Guerrero Jr
4-star plays: Bo Bichette, George Springer
GPP Note: Team ISO of .163 against RHPs.
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Milwaukee Brewers @ New York Mets (-145)
Pitchers:
Brewers – Wade Miley
Mets – Kodai Senga
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. What an interesting game we have here. The Brewers are a weak offense overall and were shut down by David Peterson last night. Senga has far more upside than Peterson and he’s a reverse splits guy. I do worry about his walk issues but damn, the upside is really nice. Miley has been really solid since returning from the IL but the Mets are a better offense against LHPs at this point.
MIL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Willy Adames, Christian Yelich
GPP Note: Team ISO of .149 against RHPs.
NYM 5-star plays: Pete Alonso
4-star plays: Starling Marte, Francisco Lindor
GPP Note: Team ISO of .162 against LHPs.
Houston Astros @ St Louis Cardinals (-120)
Pitchers:
Astros – Cristian Javier
Cardinals – Miles Mikolas
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. Both SPs are capable of putting up strong performances but both have been a little worse than expected this season. Javier is intriguing as the Cards have struggled for a while now. Mikolas could be interesting but I still think HOU can put up runs without Yordan, even though they have struggled quite a bit. I side mostly with bats in this one but this could be a game where I just use hitters as one-offs and mostly look elsewhere.
HOU 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Kyle Tucker, Alex Bregman
GPP Note: Team ISO of .152 against LHPs.
STL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Nolan Gorman, Nolan Arenado
GPP Note: Team ISO of .175 against RHPs.
Detroit Tigers @ Texas Rangers (-215)
Pitchers:
Tigers – Joey Wentz
Rangers – Dane Dunning
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9.5. Can we get the Rangers to wake up offensively? They should in this spot so I am not ready to jump off of the wagon just yet. Dunning is cheap enough that I think we can overlook his lack of Ks as an SP this season (on DK). His season high is 6 which came against this DET squad. Duran is swinging it so damn well for Texas but I am really looking for Jung to wake up and deliver tonight.
DET 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Matt Vierling, Eric Haase
GPP Note: Team ISO of .126 against RHPs.
TEX 5-star plays: Marcus Semien
4-star plays: Ezequiel Duran, Josh Jung
GPP Note: Team ISO of .178 against LHPs.
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Washington Nationals @ Seattle Mariners (-250)
Pitchers:
Nationals – Patrick Corbin
Mariners – Logan Gilbert
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. This is an island game this afternoon which is really frustrating because I always want to take HR bats against Corbin. I know Corbin has been better this season but the blow-up ability is still there. Gilbert should pick up the W, especially if he figures out a way to cool down the Thomas-Candelario combination. Tom Murphy is a sneaky HR play in this one.
WSH 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jeimer Candelario, Lane Thomas
GPP Note: Team ISO of .129 against RHPs.
SEA 5-star plays: Teoscar Hernandez
4-star plays: Eugenio Suarez, Tom Murphy
GPP Note: Team ISO of .152 against LHPs.
Philadelphia Phillies (-135) @ Chicago Cubs
Pitchers:
Phillies – Aaron Nola
Cubs – Drew Smyly
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. Schwarber has 10 HRs against LHPs this season, that’s kind of insane given his overall struggles. I think the Phillies are a very intriguing stack for us tonight. Nola has been a guy that I’ve played far less than the field so far this season but there have been spots where I have been very interested. This feels like one of those spots, though I am a bit confused. The game total suggests some wind blowing in but I see it blowing out to LF.
PHI 5-star plays: Alec Bohm, Nick Castellanos
4-star plays: Trea Turner, Kyle Schwarber
GPP Note: Team ISO of .179 against LHPs.
CHC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Nico Hoerner, Dansby Swanson
GPP Note: Team ISO of .177 against RHPs.
Chicago White Sox @ Los Angeles Angels (-120)
Pitchers:
White Sox – Lucas Giolito
Angels – Jaime Barria
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. The White Sox roster has struggled a ton against Barria in their previous match-ups so maybe he’s in play. I just don’t like the fact that he has trouble working deep into games and he’s made just 1 start over the last 15 days. Giolito is always capable of a strong performance but his walks are an issue, as his is road splits. I lumped him into my fade list this morning. Ohtani just keeps destroying baseballs and he is 7 for 23 with 3 HRs against Giolito.
CWS 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Luis Robert
GPP Note: Team ISO of .153 against RHPs.
LAA 5-star plays: Shohei Ohtani
4-star plays: Taylor Ward
GPP Note: Team ISO of .189 against RHPs.
Cleveland Guardians (-130) @ Kansas City Royals
Pitchers:
Guardians – Logan Allen
Royals – Austin Cox
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9.5. A massive total between two very weak offenses, what could possibly go wrong here? Cox hasn’t allowed a run at the MLB level and he is LH’d which neutralizes the hot hitting Naylor a bit. I keep looking at both offenses and am just lost in thinking of how either team gets us 5+ runs. Vegas is definitely smarter than I am but I don’t have any interest in these offenses from a stacking standpoint.
CLE 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jose Ramirez, Steven Kwan
GPP Note: Team ISO of .134 against LHPs.
KC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Bobby Witt, Freddy Fermin
GPP Note: Team ISO of .143 against LHPs.
Stacks of the Day: Main Slate
- Los Angeles Dodgers
- Texas Rangers
- Philadelphia Phillies
MLB Dinger of the Day – Shohei Ohtani, Angels
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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