Full Slate Breakdown for MLB DFS 6/27:
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My Take on a Consistent MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start an MLB slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target, but gives you a holistic look at the slate as well. Breaking down pitching also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the MLB Carnage Report this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the three pitchers that jumped out to me at first glance, good or bad.
- Shohei Ohtani
- Bryan Woo
- Ranger Suarez
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Minnesota Twins @ Atlanta Braves (-155)
Pitchers:
Twins – Joe Ryan
Braves – Bryce Elder
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. As much as I like Joe Ryan, I just don’t see how he has any kind of strong performance here. Elder gets a strong K boost in this match-up while a majority of the Twins lineup is just, blah. Atlanta’s offense is so dangerous overall and the RHBs are in a better position than the LHBs against Ryan. With that being said, Olson is good against any RHP at this point.
MIN 5-star plays: Max Kepler
4-star plays: Royce Lewis
GPP Note: Team ISO of .173 against RHPs.
ATL 5-star plays: Ronald Acuna Jr
4-star plays: Matt Olson, Austin Riley
GPP Note: Team ISO of .204 against RHPs.
Cincinnati Reds @ Baltimore Orioles (-140)
Pitchers:
Reds – Andrew Abbott
Orioles – Tyler Wells
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. We have some potential weather in BAL again tonight. Abbott has looked strong at the MLB level so far but I just have this weird feeling that tonight isn’t his night, so he’s not going to make my SP pool. Wells is in my pool right now because his numbers have been elite, outside of the 18 HRs allowed so far this season. 11 of those have come on the road so his HR/9 numbers at home have been far better.
CIN 5-star plays: Spencer Steer
4-star plays: Elly De La Cruz
GPP Note: Team ISO of .152 against RHPs.
BAL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Austin Hays, Anthony Santander
GPP Note: Team ISO of .166 against LHPs.
Miami Marlins @ Boston Red Sox (-130)
Pitchers:
Marlins – Sandy Alcantara
Red Sox – Garrett Whitlock
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9.5. Despite the game total, I really don’t have a ton of interest in this one. The Marlins are not a very strong offensive team and a lot of the Boston bats are just average of late. Alcantara hasn’t been good but some of the underlying numbers show he’s better than we think. Whitlock is really interesting to me as he has shown some strong upside lately and we know the weakness that is the Marlins offense.
MIA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Luis Arraez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .133 against RHPs.
BOS 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Justin Turner, Rafael Devers
GPP Note: Team ISO of .167 against RHPs.
San Diego Padres (-190) @ Pittsburgh Pirates
Pitchers:
Padres – Yu Darvish
Pirates – Rich Hill
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total 0f 9. I feel like I’m making a massive mistake by leaving Darvish out of my pitcher pool tonight. The Pirates offense is all sorts of bad right now but Darvish has also been pretty bad on the road. I want to pick on Rich Hill with the SD bats tonight, especially the Kim-Machado combo that could get us multiple HRs. You might see me change my mind on Darvish and include him later this afternoon.
SD 5-star plays: Manny Machado
4-star plays: Ha-Seong Kim, Juan Soto
GPP Note: Team ISO of .196 against LHPs.
PIT 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Andrew McCutchen
GPP Note: Team ISO of .149 against RHPs.
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Tampa Bay Rays @ Arizona Diamondbacks (-130)
Pitchers:
Rays – Taj Bradley
D’Backs – Zac Gallen
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. What a conundrum as I love both offenses for DFS purposes but I definitely love both SPs for DFS purposes, as well. Gallen, when pitching at home, is arguably my favorite pitcher in the MLB. Bradley has been more reverse splits than traditional at the MLB level, which can have some success against ARI. The LHBs of TB have been struggling of late so that should play into Gallen’s hands a bit.
TB 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Yandy Diaz, Jose Siri
GPP Note: Team ISO of .196 against RHPs.
ARI 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Ketel Marte, Christian Walker
GPP Note: Team ISO of .180 against RHPs.
Los Angeles Dodgers (-305) @ Colorado Rockies
Pitchers:
Dodgers – Clayton Kershaw
Rockies – Connor Seabold
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 12. We should be all about the Dodgers but the overall offense is struggling coming into this series. It’s going to be tough but maybe the right move is to mostly fade them? I have a hard time doing it because Smith and Freeman seem like they are in smash spots. Most of the LAD roster has had elite success in Coors throughout their careers. I can’t trust Kershaw tonight but that’s ok because it’s a 15 game slate with plenty of SP options.
LAD 5-star plays: Will Smith, Freddie Freeman
4-star plays: Mookie Betts, Jason Heyward
GPP Note: Team ISO of .194 against RHPs.
COL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Randal Grichuk, Elias Diaz
GPP Note: Team ISO of .151 against LHPs.
New York Yankees (-135) @ Oakland Athletics
Pitchers:
Yankees – Jhony Brito
A’s – Paul Blackburn
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. Stanton is 3 for 4 with an HR against Blackburn and the Yankees could use him waking up right now. McKinney has 3 of the Yankees’ 6 HRs over the last week, which is something I would have never thought I’d be typing in 2023. Kemp is about the only one performing for OAK right now but even with that information, I have no interest in Brito on this slate.
NYY 5-star plays: Anthony Rizzo
4-star plays: Giancarlo Stanton, Billy McKinney
GPP Note: Team ISO of .178 against RHPs.
OAK 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Tony Kemp
GPP Note: Team ISO of just .127 against RHPs.
San Francisco Giants @ Toronto Blue Jays (-165)
Pitchers:
Giants – Walker/Alex Wood
Blue Jays – Kevin Gausman
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. The Blue Jays offense has been picking it up of late but they still aren’t hitting a ton of HRs right now. Add in that the overall offense is weak against LHPs and you get a squad that might not meet expectations in terms of stacking. Gausman has been dominant at home and even though his Ks have struggle recently, there is a lot of K upside in this SF lineup.
SF 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Patrick Bailey, Joc Pederson
GPP Note: Team ISO of .176 against RHPs.
TOR 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Bo Bichette, George Springer
GPP Note: Team ISO of .130 against LHPs (Wood).
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Milwaukee Brewers @ New York Mets (-155)
Pitchers:
Brewers – Julio Teheran
Mets – David Peterson
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. There’s some weather around New York this evening that could have an impact similar to Baltimore last night. I normally love jamming LHPs against MIL but that won’t be tonight. Peterson has been atrocious this season and I am not going to put my money in his hands. Alonso has dominated Teheran and I keep waiting on a blow-up game from Teheran.
MIL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Joey Wiemer
GPP Note: Team ISO of .134 against LHPs.
NYM 5-star plays: Pete Alonso
4-star plays: Brandon Nimmo, Francisco Lindor
GPP Note: Team ISO of .152 against RHPs.
Houston Astros (-115) @ St Louis Cardinals
Pitchers:
Astros – Framber Valdez
Cardinals – Jordan Montgomery
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. The Cardinals are coming home after a weekend series in London. I am not sure there have been any studies on this kind of travel for baseball but I would assume there might be some rough at-bats for STL tonight. Valdez is in a great spot. Montgomery has thrown the ball well in June but I am not sure that I can trust him tonight. It’s not that I think HOU is great against LHPs, it’s just that I think they the kind of offense that could cause Montgomery to be just average.
HOU 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Chas McCormick, Alex Bregman
GPP Note: Team ISO of .168 against LHPs.
STL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Willson Contreras, Dylan Carlson
GPP Note: Team ISO of .161 against LHPs.
Detroit Tigers @ Texas Rangers (-195)
Pitchers:
Tigers – Matt Manning
Rangers – Martin Perez
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9.5. The Tigers actually have some strong BvP in their favor, which might be a bit eye opening as I expect Perez to carry a little bit of ownership. The Rangers let us down last night but I think they bounce back tonight. Manning has made just 2 MLB starts this season but LHBs have smashed him so far. Seager hasn’t been sharp recently but this certainly feels like a great spot for him.
DET 5-star plays: Jake Rogers
4-star plays: Miguel Cabrera, Jake Marisnick
GPP Note: Team ISO of .164 against LHPs.
TEX 5-star plays: Corey Seager
4-star plays: Nathaniel Lowe, Jonah Heim
GPP Note: Team ISO of .185 against RHPs.
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Washington Nationals @ Seattle Mariners (-235)
Pitchers:
Nationals – Jake Irvin
Mariners – Bryan Woo
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. As much as I like Woo tonight, I do have some worries when it comes to the LHBs of WSH. Garcia, Candelario, Abrams, and even Dickerson could cause some troubles as Woo has allowed an OPS of 1.572 to LHBs (just 23 PAs). The Mariners’ offense hasn’t been great but they are going to wake up for a 10+ spot soon, I think? Raleigh ruined what could have been a great night for me last night but I will go back to him.
WSH 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jeimer Candelario, CJ Abrams
GPP Note: Team ISO of .129 against RHPs.
SEA 5-star plays: JP Crawford
4-star plays: Julio Rodriguez, Cal Raleigh
GPP Note: Team ISO of .160 against RHPs.
Philadelphia Phillies (-130) @ Chicago Cubs
Pitchers:
Phillies – Ranger Suarez
Cubs – Jameson Taillon
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. The wind is blowing in from RF at Wrigley and we get the Cubs after they had to travel back from London yesterday. The more I look at this game, the more I really like Suarez’s upside for GPP purposes. Philadelphia hasn’t exploded in a while so maybe they do against Taillon or maybe they continue their mediocre stretch of baseball. It does suck that the bats I want to use from PHI are LH’d.
PHI 5-star plays: Brandon Marsh
4-star plays: Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber
GPP Note: Team ISO of .147 against RHPs.
CHC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Nico Hoerner, Dansby Swanson
GPP Note: Team ISO of .177 against RHPs.
Chicago White Sox @ Los Angeles Angels (-190)
Pitchers:
White Sox – Michael Kopech
Angels – Shohei Ohtani
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. Robert hasn’t been as dangerous against RHPs but he still has 30 extra-base hits against them already this season. If Ohtani is able to contain him, he should have a great performance tonight and could match Detmers’ game from last night. Kopech is super volatile but the Ks are impressive. His K numbers have trended down of late with an increase in walks, which isn’t a great combination.
CWS 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Luis Robert
GPP Note: Team ISO of .154 against RHPs.
LAA 5-star plays: Mickey Moniak
4-star plays: Mike Trout, Matt Thaiss
GPP Note: Team ISO of .188 against RHPs.
Cleveland Guardians (-140) @ Kansas City Royals
Pitchers:
Guardians – Gavin Williams
Royals – Brady Singer
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. It’s so tough to trust the CLE offense since they have very little power. Singer could dominate or he could be done after 3 innings at this point. He has thrown better at home on the season but that’s not saying much since he’s been atrocious on the road. Williams struggled in his debut but he’s a big time prospect. I want to believe we see a bounce back but there are so many pitching options tonight.
CLE 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jose Ramirez, Steven Kwan
GPP Note: Team ISO of .122 against RHPs.
KC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Drew Waters, MJ Melendez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .147 against RHPs.
Stacks of the Day: Main Slate
- Los Angeles Dodgers
- Texas Rangers
- San Diego Padres
MLB Dinger of the Day – Manny Machado, Padres
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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