Hello again everybody, and welcome to today’s MLB Full Count breakdown! I’m nilly and I run the carnage report and DraftKings tiers tools. I also coach NASCAR, so be sure to check us out every weekend over there, too. We get a lone 6-game slate on this short Monday, and even that may get cut short of mother nature has anything to do with it. Hopefully that’s not the case, but for now, let’s dig in and see what we will hopefully have to work with!
A look at pitchers
We don’t get a ton of options today, but we do at least get some good ones. Strider is in action today and leads the way in most categories, so he’ll be a popular option to pay up for. Cease isn’t too far behind him in KSCORE, so perhaps he can give him a run for his money. As always be sure to check out the coach’s notes page to see who they are most interested in.
Another solid day for DFSA members with my other love, DFS NASCAR!
Main slate
Cincinnati Reds at Baltimore Orioles
We’ll kick things off with the Reds and Orioles, with Williamson and Irvin on the mound. A 10.0 total, this game has the highest total on the day and we could easily see them go the over. However, there is a big red flag here in the form of some considerable weather issues. Hopefully that fizzles out and we get to see these teams play but be sure to keep your eye on the skies in case that’s not what happens.
Reds 5 star plays – De La Cruz
Reds 4 star plays – India/McLain/Votto
GPP note – These guys are running hot and pretty much everybody is in play, though righties do have the statcast advantage to start off with.
Orioles 4.5 star plays – Santander/Rutschman
Orioles 4 star plays – Hays, Mateo
GPP note – These bats can keep up with the Cincy ones, so if they play, you’ll probably be on these ones too. Righties have the overall advantage, though Williamson is allowing good xwOBA to lefties, too.
Milwaukee Brewers at New York Mets
Next up we have the Brewers and Mets, with Rea and Verlander on the hill. An 8.5 total, this game shares the same weather concerns as the first game, so be sure to keep tabs on things here as well. I don’t think anybody will be as bummed out for this game to get postponed, but they’re close enough that if one goes, the other probably will, too.
Brewers 4 star plays – Yelich
Brewers 3.5 star plays – Tellez, Conteras/Adames
GPP note – Attacking Verlander isn’t super fun, but he is allowing some power to righties and his strikeout rate hasn’t been as high as it could be.
Mets 4.5 star plays – Lindor
Mets 4 star plays – Nimmo, Alonso, Vogelbach
GPP note – Solid spot for the lefties, though Rea has been pretty strict to righties.
Minnesota Twins at Atlanta Braves
Gray and the Twins will take on Strider and the Braves next, and with them, another 8.5 total. Fortunately, we shouldn’t have any real weather concerns here or with the rest of the slate, so now we can focus on the more important matters at hand!
Twins 4 star plays – Buxton/Correa
Twins 3.5 star plays – Julien/Kepler
GPP note – Strider will get his strikeouts but he’s also allowing a good chunk of power to both sides of the plate lately, so contrarian stacks and/or hedging here is perfectly fine.
Braves 5 star plays –
Braves 4 star plays –
GPP note – Gray’s strikeout rate is down and he’s allowing good contact to righties along with some power to lefties. I don’t feel good about hedging here due to Gray’s price tag and lack of strikeout prowess.
Watching the weather is half the battle when it comes to MLB DFS. The DFS Army Weather Station has you covered, from games that have delay and postponement potential to games that could have significant winds that will play a role in selecting a team to stack or a pitcher to use.
Detroit Tigers at Texas Rangers
Next up we’ll see Boyd and the Tigers take on Heaney and the Rangers. We move up to a 9.0 total for this one, though personally, I am not entirely sold. Surely there will be some runs scored, but if Boyd can keep his momentum going and stay in long enough, I could see this one not quite living up to expectations.
Tigers 4 star plays – Baez
Tigers 3.5 star plays – Ibanez, Cabrera
GPP note – No real Vegas love here as per usual, but Heaney is allowing good contact and power to righties and a lot of xwOBA to lefties, so you can throw some bats at him.
Rangers 4.5 star plays – Semien, Seager
Rangers 4 star plays – Garcia, Heim
GPP note – Nice total from Vegas, though Boyd has been anything but a pushover as of late, despite his low salary. He is allowing some power to righties but very little to lefties, so you may have to stick with traditional splits. Hedging for a budget SP2 is always an option, too.
Chicago White Sox at Los Angeles Angels
We’ll head out west for our last two games, starting with the White Sox and Angels. Cease and Detmers will get the start here, along with an 8.5 total. Like Boyd, these two have been doing quite well recently, so this is another game that I could see going the under. The Angels also just came back from Coors, and sometimes the difference in air can goof some players up in their next game or two.
White Sox 4 star plays – Robert/Anderson
White Sox 3.5 star plays – Benintendi
GPP note – Detmers has been on a roll lately, so be careful blindly stacking against him. Lefties are hitting him for some xwOBA, so consider any that get a start, as righties have not been doing a whole lot against him recently.
Angels 5 star plays – Ohtani, Trout
Angels 4 star plays – Drury/Renfroe, Moniak
GPP note – Similar idea as above, Cease has been solid lately so I would pick and choose bats wisely rather than just blindly attacking him. Lefties have the advantage, but righties are getting some power out of him, too.
Washington Nationals at Seattle Mariners
We’ll wrap up on this small slate with the Nationals and Mariners, with Williams and Castillo on the mound. We get a rather uninspiring 8.0 total, though most of it is going to the home team, so it’s not all bad. They also have the pitching advantage, so if you go after this game, you’ll probably find yourself skipping over the Washington players.
Nationals 5 star plays – none
Nationals 3.5 star plays – Thomas, Candelario
GPP note – Tough spot for these bats, though lefties are getting the occasional power out of Castillo.
Mariners 5 star plays – Rodriguez
Mariners 4 star plays – Hernandez, Kelenic
GPP note – Williams comes in with a slightly below-average strikeout rate and is allowing good contact and power to both sides, so just about everybody is worth a look here.
And that’s going to do it for this one. Thanks for joining me, and be sure to check out the coach’s notes page to see who they are most interested in. Best of luck today!
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