Full Slate Breakdown for MLB DFS 6/25:
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My Take on a Consistent MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start an MLB slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target, but gives you a holistic look at the slate as well. Breaking down pitching also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the MLB Carnage Report this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the three pitchers that jumped out to me at first glance, good or bad.
- Eury Perez
- Tyler Glasnow
- Zack Wheeler
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Minnesota Twins (-130) @ Detroit Tigers
Pitchers:
Twins – Bailey Ober
Tigers – Michael Lorenzen
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. Stop me if you’ve heard this one before but Byron Buxton left the game yesterday with an injury. The Twins need to figure out what’s so soft about him at this point. Kepler has been rolling with the power stroke over the last week while Correa is heating up and Lewis is just doing top prospect things. Carpenter is the big threat today as he’s rocking an OPS of 1.186 over the last week.
MIN 5-star plays: Max Kepler
4-star plays: Royce Lewis, Carlos Correa
GPP Note: Team ISO of .175 against RHPs.
DET 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Kerry Carpenter
GPP Note: Team ISO of .126 against RHPs.
Atlanta Braves (-178) @ Cincinnati Reds
Pitchers:
Braves – Charlie Morton
Reds – Levi Stoudt
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 11.5. The totals in this series have been nuts but these teams are performing. Morton is obviously far superior to Stoudt but there is something about this CIN offense. I wouldn’t be shocked if we see 5+ HRs in this game, even though Morton has allowed just 1 HR on the road this season. Stoudt was absolutely lit up by TB and the Braves can do just as much damage against him.
ATL 5-star plays: Ronald Acuna
4-star plays: Matt Olson, Michael Harris
GPP Note: Team ISO of .204 against RHPs.
CIN 5-star plays: Elly De La Cruz
4-star plays: Joey Votto, Jake Fraley
GPP Note: Team ISO of .151 against RHPs.
Boston Red Sox @ Chicago White Sox
Pitchers:
Red Sox – Kutter Crawford
White Sox – Dylan Cease??? UPDATED TO Tanner Banks
Rundown:
We are waiting for the Vegas information. It looks like we don’t actually have a White Sox SP listed but the lean is to Cease making the start today. Crawford was excellent in his last start so he could be a strong play but the White Sox have been known to hit some HRs, albeit mostly Solo shots. Cease would be a very interesting play today as the Red Sox aren’t a super dangerous offense and he has turned things around a bit since his struggles over his first 8-10 starts. ***UPDATE*** Looks like Tanner Banks is getting the start for the White Sox.
BOS 5-star plays: Rafael Devers
4-star plays: Alex Verdugo
GPP Note: Team ISO of .166 against RHPs.
CWS 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Luis Robert, Andrew Vaughn
GPP Note: Team ISO of .153 against RHPs.
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Miami Marlins (-178)
Pitchers:
Pirates – Johan Oviedo
Marlins – Eury Perez
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total 0f 7. Should be a pretty nice pitcher’s duel between a couple of under-the-radar guys. Henry Davis has looked solid at the MLB level and has a ton of upside as the former number 1 overall pick. Arraez just keeps hitting and hitting and hitting…oh and hitting. Berti has been heating up and is coming off of a walk-off hit last night. Arraez really is the only bat that I plan to force in from this game.
PIT 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Henry Davis
GPP Note: Team ISO of .151 against RHPs.
MIA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Luis Arraez, Jon Berti
GPP Note: Team ISO of .133 against RHPs.
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Kansas City Royals @ Tampa Bay Rays (-278)
Pitchers:
Royals – Daniel Lynch
Rays – Tyler Glasnow
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. The TB offense has cooled off a decent chunk but that doesn’t mean I want to flirt with death and use Lynch today. Ramirez has hit Lynch well and he has been dominant against LHPs all season. Arozarena is on fire at the plate right now and probably should be a 5-Star in this article. Glasnow should bounce back in this start but he hasn’t looked sharp in recent outings.
KC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Drew Waters, Maikel Garcia
GPP Note: Team ISO of .149 against RHPs.
TB 5-star plays: Harold Ramirez
4-star plays: Randy Arozarena, Isaac Paredes
GPP Note: Team ISO of .207 against LHPs.
Los Angeles Angels (-155) @ Colorado Rockies
Pitchers:
Angels – Tyler Anderson
Rockies – Austin Gomber
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 13. The Angels might still be hitting during Saturday’s game. They just couldn’t make an out for a while in that game as they poured in 21 runs in just the third and fourth innings alone. We really could see another explosion today but I feel like everybody is going to chase yesterday. Renfroe and Drury are heating up and they both have traditionally crushed LHPs at the MLB level.
LAA 5-star plays: Hunter Renfroe
4-star plays: Mike Trout, Brandon Drury
GPP Note: Team ISO of .171 against LHPs.
COL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Randal Grichuk, Elehuris Montero
GPP Note: Team ISO of .148 against LHPs.
Texas Rangers @ New York Yankees (-115)
Pitchers:
Rangers – Nathan Eovaldi
Yankees – Gerrit Cole
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. This is a great pitching match-up and I want to watch it as a fan of baseball. There is some intriguing BvP history in this game that makes me think we actually could see this one go over the 7.5 total. Plenty of power on both sides of this. Stanton has absolutely crushed Eovaldi but he comes into this one in pretty rough form. Semien has had strong success against Cole but he’s currently similar to Stanton.
TEX 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Adolis Garcia, Marcus Semien
GPP Note: Team ISO of just .184 against RHPs.
NYY 5-star plays: Anthony Rizzo
4-star plays: Giancarlo Stanton
GPP Note: Team ISO of .178 against RHPs.
Oakland Athletics @ Toronto Blue Jays (-305)
Pitchers:
A’s – Luis Medina
Blue Jays – Yusei Kikuchi
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9.5. Kikuchi is going to be popular so ask yourself, what happens when Kikuchi is chalk? It’s a tough chalk pill to swallow. I side with Kikuchi but I feel the need to have some OAK mini-stacks today. Medina has been gashed by RHBs at the MLB level and that’s not a good thing when facing this TOR squad. A majority of the team power stands on that side of the plate.
OAK 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Aledmys Diaz, Carlos Perez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .136 against RHPs.
TOR 5-star plays: Vlad Guerrero Jr
4-star plays: Bo Bichette, George Springer
GPP Note: Team ISO of .162 against RHPs.
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New York Mets @ Philadelphia Phillies (-178)
Pitchers:
Mets – Carlos Carrasco
Phillies – Zack Wheeler
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. This feels like a spot for the Phillies offense to wake up and put a 7 or 8 spot on the board. Carrasco hasn’t been good, allowing 12 runs in 12.2 June innings. Wheeler can be dominant against his former squad but there is some volatility but the upside is really intriguing. I might have to put Philly in my top 3 stacks on the main slate as I think they will be a little over looked by the field.
NYM 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Tommy Pham, Brandon Nimmo
GPP Note: Team ISO of .155 against RHPs.
PHI 5-star plays: Trea Turner
4-star plays: Bryce Harper, Brandon Marsh
GPP Note: Team ISO of .146 against RHPs.
Chicago Cubs (-155) @ St Louis Cardinals – In London
Pitchers:
Cubs – Marcus Stroman
Cardinals – Matthew Liberatore
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 12. Stroman has been absolutely dominant this season and while I expect regression at some point, the Cardinals just haven’t looked good for a while now. This game being in London, makes it an interesting one. The park has allowed a ton of runs in the past and the Cubs dismantled the Cardinals on Saturday. I definitely prefer the bats here so I don’t think either SP is a must play.
CHC 5-star plays: Ian Happ
4-star plays: Dansby Swanson
GPP Note: Team ISO of .177 against LHPs.
STL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Paul Goldschmidt, Tommy Edman
GPP Note: Team ISO of .178 against RHPs.
Arizona Diamondbacks @ San Francisco Giants (-130)
Pitchers:
D-Backs – Ryne Nelson
Giants – Anthony DeSclafani
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. I am on the over in this game, which is weird to say when a game is being played in San Francisco. The park plays slightly smaller during the day so I am thinking we see 3-4 HRs in this match-up. The main ARI guys, outside of Carroll, are swinging it super well right now. The Giants have a few BvP spots (small samples) that are very intriguing to me.
ARI 5-star plays: Corbin Carroll
4-star plays: Christian Walker, Ketel Marte
GPP Note: Team ISO of .180 against RHPs.
SF 5-star plays: Lamonte Wade
4-star plays: Michael Conforto, Joc Pederson
GPP Note: Team ISO of .179 against RHPs.
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Seattle Mariners (-125) @ Baltimore Orioles
Pitchers:
Mariners – George Kirby
Orioles – Kyle Bradish
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. This is a game that I am struggling to get a read on at this point. I think both SPs could bring a dominant performance to the mound but both can be prone to blow-ups. Kirby probably has the better ability but I think Bradish has the better match-up for upside. The Seattle lineup can strike out a ton, as they are near the top in baseball in terms of K%. Santander is on fire at the plate and has had success against Kirby.
SEA 5-star plays: Julio Rodriguez
4-star plays: Teoscar Hernandez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .160 against RHPs.
BAL 5-star plays: Anthony Santander
4-star plays: Austin Hays, Gunnar Henderson
GPP Note: Team ISO of .175 against RHPs.
Houston Astros @ Los Angeles Dodgers (-125)
Pitchers:
Astros – Hunter Brown
Dodgers – Tony Gonsolin
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. I don’t think we need to go heavy bats in this one but it is a showdown as it’s the Sunday Night game. I prefer the LAD side as Brown can get hit by RHBs and the Dodgers have a couple of the best. Bregman has been heating up for HOU and makes for a very interesting captain tonight. Tucker is going to wake up again at some point and have a double-dong performance.
HOU 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Alex Bregman, Kyle Tucker
GPP Note: Team ISO of .152 against RHPs.
LAD 5-star plays: Freddie Freeman
4-star plays: Mookie Betts, Will Smith
GPP Note: Team ISO of .194 against RHPs.
Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres (-205)
Pitchers:
Nationals – Mackenzie Gore
Padres – Seth Lugo
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. I really want to like Gore because I believe in his ability but this SD squad can crush LHPs with power. Gore has been great against RHBs so it’s going to be an interesting match-up. Lugo returned from the IL and looked solid but threw just 66 pitches. The Nats have a couple of guys swinging it well and that have had success against Lugo. I don’t think they get shut down completely but they don’t have a ton of upside.
WSH 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Lane Thomas, Luis Garcia
GPP Note: Team ISO of .126 against RHPs.
SD 5-star plays: Juan Soto
4-star plays: Ha-Seong Kim, Fernando Tatis
GPP Note: Team ISO of .201 against LHPs.
Milwaukee Brewers @ Cleveland Guardians (EVEN)
Pitchers:
Brewers – Corbin Burnes
Guardians – Aaron Civale
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. I just don’t think Civale has a ton of upside, which is annoying because I do enjoy using SPs against MIL. Burnes is certainly capable of putting up a dominant performance but the Guardians don’t strike out a ton and the overall roster is hitting .291 over the last week. The issue for CLE is they lack power, hitting just 3 HRs over the last 6 games and I believe they are the bottom in baseball in HRs at this point.
MIL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Christian Yelich,Willy Adames
GPP Note: Team ISO of .151 against RHPs.
CLE 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jose Ramirez, Josh Naylor
GPP Note: Team ISO of .120 against RHPs.
Stacks of the Day: Main Slate
- Atlanta Braves
- Toronto Blue Jays
- Philadelphia Phillies
MLB Dinger of the Day – Hunter Renfroe, Angels
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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