Hello again everybody, and welcome to today’s MLB Full Count breakdown! I’m nilly and I run the carnage report and DraftKings tiers tools. I also coach NASCAR, so be sure to check us out every weekend over there, too. It’s a split-slate Thursday, as we have a 5-game main slate followed by three late games. If you’re a fan of short slates, this is your kind of day, as you’ll get two to tinker around with. There’s a lot to cover, so let’s get to it!
A look at pitchers
We get a decent variety of options today, though I think those in the later games will fare a little better than those on the main slate. Only one of the main slate starters has a KSCORE above 500 (Snell), while we have three of them in the late games. A fourth, who isn’t quite up there with the others, would be McClanahan, who could serve as a good all-purpose arm for the evening games. As always be sure to check out the coach’s notes page to see who they are most interested in.
Main slate
Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia Phillies
We’ll kick things off with the Braves and Phillies, with Elder and Nola on the mound. We get an 8.5 total here along with some possible weather issues, so be sure to keep an eye on things as we do have two of our most expensive pitchers on the day in this game.
Braves 4.5 star plays – Acuna
Braves 3.5 star plays – Olson/Albies, Riley/Ozuna
GPP note – Nola is coming in hot (though is allowing some power to both sides) but these bats are also eating up righties. There is plenty of upside on either side, so if you hedge anywhere today, make it be here.
Phillies 4.5 star plays – Harper, Schwarber
Phillies 3.5 star plays – Turner/Castellanos/Stott
GPP note – Sort of a watered down version of Atlanta, Elder is coming in with decent numbers on his side but is also allowing some power to lefties. These bats are hitting righties well, but not quite as good as the Braves are, so I’d be more inclined to pick a side than to hedge.
Arizona Diamondbacks at Washington Nationals
Next up we have the Diamondbacks and Nationals, with Henry and Irvin as the starters. We move up to a 9.5 total here and have the same weather concerns as the previous game, but this time we have two of the least expensive arms on the day (which means we want to make sure our bats are going to see the field).
Diamondbacks 5 star plays – Carroll
Diamondbacks 4 star plays – Marte, Walker, Thomas
GPP note – Irvin is allowing plenty of contact and power to lefties, decent xwOBA to righties, and carries a low strikeout rate. These bats are hitting righties quite well, making it a great spot overall.
Nationals 4.5 star plays – Thomas, Candelario
Nationals 3.5 star plays – Meneses/Ruiz
GPP note – Henry is allowing decent contact and plenty of power to both sides with an average strikeout rate, so while these bats don’t get as much love as some other offenses from Vegas, they’re still very much in play.
Oakland Athletics at Cleveland Guardians
Sears and the Athletics will take on Allen and the Guardians next, and while the weather concerns aren’t quite as bad here as with the previous two games, that can certainly change throughout the day, so keep an eye on things here too. If they play as scheduled, I could see this one hitting the over.
Athletics 4 star plays – Ruiz/Rooker
Athletics 3.5 star plays – Perez
GPP note – Allen is allowing wOBA and ISO to righties that is a bit above average, so some medium-sized stacks against him wouldn’t be a terrible idea.
Guardians 5 star plays – Ramirez
Guardians 4 star plays – Bell, Rosario, Gimenez
GPP note – Sears is allowing above-average contact and power to both sides, and these bats have been pretty good at keeping their strikeouts down. Stacks of any size are in play here.
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Boston Red Sox at Minnesota Twins
Moving right along, we next have Garza/Walter and the Red Sox set to take on Ryan and the Twins. I don’t have any insight from Vegas as of early this morning, but considering the overall matchup, I like the Twins for this one.
Red Sox 4 star plays – Devers/Yoshida, Verdugo
Red Sox 3.5 star plays – Turner, Casas
GPP note – Ryan can be tough, but he is allowing some power to righties.
Twins 4.5 star plays – Buxton/Correa
Twins 3.5 star plays – Taylor
GPP note – Walter wasn’t very dominant back in March, and I don’t know that much has changed since then, so stack away.
San Diego Padres at San Francisco Giants
Our final game on the main slate will be between the Padres and Giants, as Snell and Wood will face off. We get an 8.5 total, and while Vegas has this one split down the middle, I can’t help but feel like the visitors should get the nod here. If Snell can keep his momentum going, I don’t see the Giants having an answer for him.
Padres 4.5 star plays – Tatis/Machado
Padres 4 star plays – Soto, Bogaerts/Sanchez
GPP note – Righties have been getting some decent power out of Wood, though he is allowing good xwOBA to lefties as well.
Giants 4 star plays – Davis
Giants 3.5 star plays – Slater/Estrada
GPP note – Snell is coming in awfully hot and Vegas may have been a little generous with the total here, so be careful with too much stacking.
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Late games
Kansas City Royals at Tampa Bay Rays
We’ll switch over to the late games now, as Cuas and my Royals will take on McClanahan and the Rays. This 7.5 total looks kind of boring at first, but when you consider that Vegas is only giving KC barely more than two of those runs, it makes the other side quite interesting.
Royals 5 star plays – none
Royals 3.5 star plays – Perez/Witt
GPP note – Rough spot with basically zero love from Vegas (I don’t think that I have ever seen a total this low), so stack at your own risk.
Rays 5 star plays – Franco/Arozarena
Rays 4 star plays – Diaz/Lowe, Mejia
GPP note – This spot seems pretty self-explanatory. Either way, righties have the power advantage.
Pittsburgh Pirates at Miami Marlins
Next up we have the Pirates and Marlins, with Keller and Garrett to get the start. Another 7.5 total, this one is much more evenly matched, so perhaps we’ll get more of a game out of it. I think some cherry-picking will be necessary here rather than just blindly stacking, but that’s what makes these small slates so fun, right?
Pirates 4 star plays – Hayes
Pirates 3.5 star plays – McCutchen
GPP note – Garrett comes in looking better than his salary would indicate, so be careful going too heavy here.
Marlins 4.5 star plays – Arraez
Marlins 4 star plays – De La Cruz/Soler
GPP note – Not the best spot here either, but Keller does allow some power to lefties.
Seattle Mariners at New York Yankees
We’ll wrap up the day with the Mariners and Yankees, as Woo will take on German. The weather concerns make a return here, and unfortunately, things look a bit worse than the earlier games. As usual, keep an eye on the skies, as there could be some important pieces coming from this game.
Mariners 4.5 star plays – Rodriguez/Hernandez
Mariners 3.5 star plays – Kelenic
GPP note – German is allowing decent power to both sides with just an average strikeout rate, so you can take shots here despite the low total.
Yankees 4 star plays – Torres/Stanton
Yankees 3.5 star plays – Rizzo
GPP note – Woo is coming in with a couple of solid outings under his belt and is still cheap, so hedging here for a budget SP2 isn’t a bad idea.
And that’s going to do it for this one. Thanks for joining me, and be sure to check out the coach’s notes page to see who they are most interested in. Best of luck today!
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