Full Slate Breakdown for MLB DFS 6/21:
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My Take on a Consistent MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start an MLB slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target, but gives you a holistic look at the slate as well. Breaking down pitching also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the MLB Carnage Report this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the three pitchers that jumped out to me at first glance, good or bad.
- Kevin Gausman
- Andrew Abbott
- Gavin Williams
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Boston Red Sox @ Minnesota Twins (-130)
Pitchers:
Red Sox – Garrett Whitlock
Twins – Sonny Gray
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. Whitlock is one of my favorite GPP pitchers tonight. We can probably trust him in other stuff but I really love the upside against this MIN lineup. There are some questions since he has been hit hard by RHBs. Gray should come out looking to deal as he’s been limited in his outings for no reason (according to him). The Twins need to let him pitch deep into games.
BOS 5-star plays: Justin Turner
4-star plays: Alex Verdugo, Tristan Casas
GPP Note: Team ISO of .173 against RHPs.
MIN 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Royce Lewis, Byron Buxton
GPP Note: Team ISO of .175 against RHPs.
Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies (-125)
Pitchers:
Braves – AJ Smith-Shawver
Phillies – Aaron Nola
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. The ATL roster has 18 HRs in 328 PAs against Nola in their careers. So despite how strong Nola has been in his career, the Braves find ways to hit him hard. They have a combined career OPS of .830 against him. Smith-Shawver has been pretty strong and one of the things that I like coming into this one is that he has actually been better against LHBs than RHBs, which is big against this PHI lineup.
ATL 5-star plays: Ronald Acuna
4-star plays: Austin Riley
GPP Note: Team ISO of .198 against RHPs.
PHI 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: JT Realmuto, Kyle Schwarber
GPP Note: Team ISO of .150 against RHPs.
Texas Rangers @ Chicago White Sox (EVEN)
Pitchers:
Rangers – Martin Perez
White Sox – Michael Kopech
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9.5. Very interesting game for HR upside with how Kopech allows HRs and how the White Sox are currently hitting HRs. The Rangers have one of the most potent offenses in baseball and Seager just keeps hitting. I love the power upside of the White Sox tonight but it feels like every time we target Martin, he’s serviceable and keeps us from achieving our dreams.
TEX 5-star plays: Corey Seager
4-star plays: Adolis Garcia, Ezequiel Duran
GPP Note: Team ISO of .190 against RHPs.
CWS 5-star plays: Eloy Jimenez
4-star plays: Luis Robert, Jake Burger
GPP Note: Team ISO of .165 against LHPs.
Toronto Blue Jays (-135) @ Miami Marlins
Pitchers:
Blue Jays – Kevin Gausman
Marlins – Sandy Alcantara
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total 0f 7. Coming into this season I would have said this SP match-up would have been must see TV. With Alcantara seemingly regressing something serious, this becomes all about Gausman’s upside. Vlad Jr has smashed Alcantara previously as he has gone 5 for 7 with an HR against him. Here’s a shocking BvP spot in this game, Garrett Hampson is 5 for 12 with 3 HRs in his career against Gausman.
TOR 5-star plays: Bo Bichette
4-star plays: Vlad Guerrero
GPP Note: Team ISO of .162 against RHPs.
MIA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Luis Arraez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .136 against RHPs.
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Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers (-125)
Pitchers:
Royals – Brady Singer
Tigers – Matthew Boyd
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. I actually think this could be a sneaky game to target for bats today. There are some sneaky BvP spots to go along with some guys who have been swinging it with power. I also believe that Boyd is an interesting option for us. He was strong against KC a few weeks ago but he hasn’t been sharp over his last couple of starts. I keep waiting for Singer to remember how to pitch but maybe I need to give up on him.
KC 5-star plays: Salvador Perez
4-star plays: Bobby Witt, Maikel Garcia
GPP Note: Team ISO of .146 against LHPs.
DET 5-star plays: Spencer Torkelson
4-star plays: Matt Vierling, Javier Baez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .130 against RHPs.
Colorado Rockies @ Cincinnati Reds (-260)
Pitchers:
Rockies – Connor Seabold
Reds – Andrew Abbott
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. Abbott, despite pitching in a super small park, is in a great spot against the Rockies. The best Rockies bats right now are ALL left handed, so that plays into his advantage. Abbott hasn’t allowed an earned run at the MLB level and at this point, will he ever? The answer is yes but still, he’s been pretty impressive. The CIN lineup is in a pretty strong spot with some success against Seabold previously.
COL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Ryan McMahon, Nolan Jones
GPP Note: Team ISO of .134 against LHPs.
CIN 5-star plays: Jake Fraley
4-star plays: Jonathan India, Elly De La Cruz
GPP Note: Team ISO of .144 against RHPs.
Seattle Mariners (-170) @ New York Yankees
Pitchers:
Mariners – Luis Castillo
Yankees – Jhony Brito
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. Castillo hasn’t been as sharp on the road but he has massive upside and the Yankees lineup is weak overall. I know they started out strong last night but Kirby settled in very nicely. RHBs against Brito have done some damage and the Mariners have a handful of them. I know I have Julio as a 4-Star below but he is going to be my Dinger of the Day call in this one.
SEA 5-star plays: Ty France
4-star plays: Julio Rodriguez
GPP Note: Team ISO of just .152 against RHPs.
NYY 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Harrison Bader
GPP Note: Team ISO of .181 against RHPs.
Oakland Athletics @ Cleveland Guardians (-190)
Pitchers:
A’s – Paul Blackburn
Guardians – Gavin Williams
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. I am super pumped about this game and it’s not because of the hitting. Gavin Williams is a legit Ace-upside prospect with big time K ability. He gets, arguably, the best spot to make is MLB debut. Blackburn has been a surprise with an increased K rate. I realize that CLE isn’t a big time K squad but there’s upside in Blackburn at his price point around the industry.
OAK 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Esteury Ruiz
GPP Note: Team ISO of .126 against RHPs.
CLE 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jose Ramirez, Andres Gimenez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .121 against RHPs.
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New York Mets @ Houston Astros (-160)
Pitchers:
Mets – Tylor Megill
Astros – Cristian Javier
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. I am really torn on this one as the Astros should be able to get to Megill but they aren’t exactly rolling at the plate. Javier hasn’t been as sharp this season but he has still been solid. The Mets were great two nights ago but Valdez absolutely dominated them last night. Right now, I would say that I much prefer just grabbing mini-stacks from each side in my builds.
NYM 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Francisco Lindor, Daniel Vogelbach
GPP Note: Team ISO of .156 against RHPs.
HOU 5-star plays: Yainer Diaz
4-star plays: Kyle Tucker
GPP Note: Team ISO of .148 against RHPs.
St Louis Cardinals (-160) @ Washington Nationals
Pitchers:
Cardinals – Miles Mikolas
Nationals – Trevor Williams
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. I am a bit annoyed that the Cardinals busted out last night but I was on them so I guess it’s not terrible. The reason I am annoyed is because today is such a great match-up for them. Mikolas has looked bad recently but this is one of those get right spots for an SP and I am all about it. Lane Thomas probably hits an HR today after ruining my dreams last night.
STL 5-star plays: Nolan Arenado
4-star plays: Paul DeJong, Dylan Carlson
GPP Note: Team ISO of .150 against LHPs.
WSH 5-star plays: Lane Thomas
4-star plays: Jeimer Candelario
GPP Note: Team ISO of .123 against RHPs.
San Diego Padres (-125) @ San Francisco Giants
Pitchers:
Padres – Yu Darvish
Giants – R.Walker/Manaea
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. The Giants’ roster has had a lot of success against Darvish in previous match-ups so I am a little intrigued in SF tonight. Some of the Padres have absolutely smashed Manaea previously so maybe we see SF go with a different long reliever. SD’s offense has shown signs of waking up as the weather has turned so a huge game from them tonight wouldn’t shock me at all.
SD 5-star plays: Xander Bogaerts
4-star plays: Nelson Cruz, Manny Machado
GPP Note: Team ISO of .196 against LHPs.
SF 5-star plays: Mike Yastrzemski
4-star plays: Michael Conforto
GPP Note: Team ISO of .181 against RHPs.
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Baltimore Orioles @ Tampa Bay Rays (-145)
Pitchers:
Orioles – Tyler Wells
Rays – Taj Bradley
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. I really could see this game going both ways in that I think we see a pitcher’s duel with the possibility of a bunch of hits/HRs happening. It’s one of those weird spots where the numbers believes the SPs should be strong today but there’s so much talent at the plate. Bradley hasn’t been good at home in his short career so that’s a worry for me but he’s been a reverse splits guy so far and BAL tends to run out some LHBs.
BAL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Austin Hays, Anthony Santander
GPP Note: Team ISO of .175 against RHPs.
TB 5-star plays: Josh Lowe
4-star plays: Luke Raley
GPP Note: Team ISO of .196 against RHPs.
Los Angeles Dodgers @ Los Angeles Angels (-145)
Pitchers:
Dodgers – Undecided
Angels – Shohei Ohtani
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. Ohtani against the potent offense of the Dodgers is going to be a great match-up to watch. I don’t really love either side so I guess you can call me indifferent in this one. The Dodgers haven’t announced an official SP yet so we will need that before we can make any LAA stacks.
LAD 5-star plays: Freddie Freeman
4-star plays: Mookie Betts
GPP Note: Team ISO of .193 against RHPs.
LAA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Mike Trout, Brandon Drury
GPP Note: Team ISO of .187 against RHPs.
Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates (EVEN)
Pitchers:
Cubs – Kyle Hendricks
Pirates – Rich Hill
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. A couple of guys in this game, Mancini and Hayes, have great histories against the opposing SP but each team has a number of guys struggling at the moment. I do believe this could be a bit of a pitching surprise on the early slate but the Cubs have had success against LHPs so far this season. Morel just keeps hitting HRs, can he do it again today against the youngster, Rich Hill?
CHC 5-star plays: Christopher Morel
4-star plays: Ian Happ, Trey Mancini
GPP Note: Team ISO of .177 against LHPs.
PIT 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Ke’Bryan Hayes
GPP Note: Team ISO of .155 against RHPs.
Arizona Diamondbacks (-145) @ Milwaukee Brewers
Pitchers:
D’Backs – Zac Gallen
Brewers – Julio Teheran
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. Gallen dominated this MIL squad earlier but that came at home and he’s been a different kind of a pitcher on the road. With that said, I am still going back to him against a weak MIL offense. The Arizona offense is one that I always stack and today will be no different. Teheran has been pitching way above his head to begin his MIL career so we should expect some regression going forward.
ARI 5-star plays: Ketel Marte
4-star plays: Christian Walker, Corbin Carroll
GPP Note: Team ISO of .185 against RHPs.
MIL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Christian Yelich, Raimel Tapia
GPP Note: Team ISO of .152 against RHPs.
Stacks of the Day: Main Slate
- Seattle Mariners
- Texas Rangers
- Chicago White Sox
MLB Dinger of the Day – Julio Rodriguez, Mariners
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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