Hello again everybody, and welcome to today’s MLB Full Count breakdown! I’m nilly and I run the carnage report and DraftKings tiers tools. I also coach NASCAR, so be sure to check us out every weekend over there, too. It’s another Monday, and we get a few early games followed by a 7-game main slate. We have some studs, some gas cans, and plenty in between, so let’s dig in and see what we have to work with!
A look at pitchers
We have but just a handful of options for the early games, though at first glance, it looks like paying down may be the way to go. As for the main slate, it’s a little tough to find a slam dunk cash pitcher, as most of the expensive pitchers are facing potent offenses, and most of the cheaper arms look to be a little rough around the edges. This will be a great day to check out the coach’s notes page to see who they are most interested in!
Early games
St Louis Cardinals at Washington Nationals
We’ll kick things off with the early games, starting with the Cardinals and Nationals. Flaherty and Gray will get the start here, along with a healthy 9.5 total. Vegas likes the visitors here, and so long as they show up and do what they should be able to do in this matchup, I don’t see why they can’t take this one (though that does seem to be the problem with this team sometimes).
Cardinals 5 star plays – Goldschmidt
Cardinals 4 star plays – Arenado/Donovan, Carlson
GPP note – Great spot for these bats, as Gray is allowing plenty to both sides of the plate (though righties do get the power advantage).
Nationals 4 star plays – Candelario
Nationals 3.5 star plays – Thomas/Garcia, Dickerson
GPP note – Flaherty continues to be a bit up-and-down, so attacking and/or hedging here is an option. Righties get the statcast advantage.
Toronto Blue Jays at Miami Marlins
Next up we have the Blue Jays and Marlins, with Berrios and Hoeing on the mound. Vegas gives this one an 8.5 total, though I suspect that we’ll see this one work its way beyond the total just a smidge. Most of it will probably come from Toronto, but I think that Miami makes for a decent contrarian move.
Blue Jays 5 star plays – Guerrero/Springer
Blue Jays 4 star plays – Varsho, Merrifield
GPP note – For however long he’s in, Hoeing allows plenty to righties, which bodes well for this offense.
Marlins 4 star plays – Arraez, Soler/De La Cruz
Marlins 3.5 star plays – Cooper/Sanchez
GPP note – Another reverse splits spot, Berrios is allowing more xwOBA and power to righties, so you can take some shots here even if they don’t have much love from Vegas.
Kansas City Royals at Detroit Tigers
We’ll round out the early games next, as my Royals will take on the Tigers. Lyles and Olson get the start here, along with a 9.0 total. Vegas laid this one out about as I suspected that they would, with Detroit being the moderate favorites. They’ll have a decent chance to do some damage against Lyles, which is fun for DFS considering that most of them are pretty cheap.
Royals 4 star plays – Perez/Witt
Royals 3.5 star plays – Olivares
GPP note – Olson hasn’t been dominant but he has been a bit stingy, so big stacks may not be the answer.
Tigers 4 star plays – McKinstry
Tigers 3.5 star plays – Baez, Carpenter
GPP note – Lyles is good for the random big game (hedge?) but overall he’s allowing good power to both sides with a moderate strikeout rate, so stacking here wouldn’t be a bad idea.
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Main slate
Chicago Cubs at Pittsburgh Pirates
We’ll switch over to the main slate now, starting with the Cubs and Pirates. Smyly and Bido get the start here, and with them, a 9.0 total. Vegas likes the Cubbies here, but I do worry about how they have looked against righties recently. We’ll see how that goes, but my gut is leaning more towards the under right now.
Cubs 4 star plays – Happ, Suzuki
Cubs 3.5 star plays – Hoerner/Bellinger
GPP note – These bats have been cold against righties as of late, so it might be a good spot to go under.
Pirates 4.5 star plays – McCutchen/Hayes
Pirates 3.5 star plays – Reynolds/Santana/Joe
GPP note – Nice spot for these bats, as Smyly is allowing plenty of contact and power to both sides of the plate.
Colorado Rockies at Cincinnati Reds
Next up we have the Rockies and Reds, with Gomber and Williamson on the hill. While we do have a tasty 10.0 total, we also have some concerning weather reports, so be sure to keep an eye on the skies for this one, as it looks like there’s a good chance that mother nature will play into it somehow. If they do play, expect some fireworks.
Rockies 4.5 star plays – Profar
Rockies 3.5 star plays – Grichuk, McMahon/Diaz
GPP note – Williamson is allowing almost equal xwOBA to both sides at .391 & .407, though righties do have the power advantage.
Reds 5 star plays – De La Cruz
Reds 4 star plays – McClain/India/Steer, Newman
GPP note – As usual, Gomber allows plenty to both sides of the plate and carries a low strikeout rate, so you can attack him however you see fit. Grab some bats that are cheap and/or in the bottom of the order to help with ownership.
Boston Red Sox at Minnesota Twins
Paxton and the Red Sox will take on Lopez and the Twins next, and Vegas gives this one an 8.0 total. Between the decent pitching and Boston coming off of a double-header, I could sure see that playing out, so we’ll want to select bats carefully here as they may be a little sleepy on both sides.
Red Sox 4.5 star plays – Devers
Red Sox 3.5 star plays – Yoshida/Verdugo
GPP note – Lopez can be stingy and he boasts a solid strikeout rate, so pick and choose your bats instead of blindly stacking.
Twins 4 star plays – Buxton/Correa
Twins 3.5 star plays – Solano/Farmer
GPP note – Paxton has been racking up plenty of strikeouts lately but it occasionally allowing some good power to both sides, so this would be a good spot to hedge.
Arizona Diamondbacks at Milwaukee Brewers
Moving right along, our next matchup will be between the Diamondbacks and Brewers. Kelly and Burnes get the start here, as we move down to a 7.5 total. Vegas has this one split mostly down the middle, with just a slight nod to the home team. I think that both starters will have a chance at a good score here, but both are allowing some power on occasion, so cherry-picking some contrarian pivots could come in handy in the larger tournaments today.
Diamondbacks 4 star plays – Carroll
Diamondbacks 3.5 star plays – Marte, Walker
GPP note – Same situation as the Twins, but less Vegas support with more of the power going to the righties.
Brewers 4 star plays – Yelich
Brewers 3.5 star plays – Winker/Tellez
GPP note – Same as above but the power advantage goes to the lefties here instead.
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Texas Rangers at Chicago White Sox
Next up we have Heaney and the Rangers going up against Scholtens and the White Sox. Vegas hasn’t made up its mind about this game yet, though I think it’s a safe bet to say that the Rangers will get the nod here. By how much might be the question, but either way, they’re in a good spot to rack up some fantasy goodness on both fronts.
Rangers 5 star plays – Seager, Semien
Rangers 4 star plays – Lowe, Garcia, Taveras
GPP note – Scholtens isn’t very scary and these bats are eating up righties, so stacks of any size are in play.
White Sox 4 star plays – Robert, Burger
White Sox 3.5 star plays – Vaughn
GPP note – Heaney has allowed some power to righties, but overall isn’t getting dinged around a ton. Smaller stacks might be better here.
New York Mets at Houston Astros
We get a couple of our studs next, as Scherzer and the Mets will take on Brown and the Astros. Another 7.5 total, I could see this one going well under or well over, depending on how the starters look, as both offer tons of upside but occasionally give up more than expected. While I do think that the under is more likely, it doesn’t hurt to hedge a little.
Mets 4.5 star plays – Lindor, Alonso
Mets 3.5 star plays – Nimmo/McNeil, Pham
GPP note – Brown can be tough and can rack up some strikeouts, but tends to give up some power in spurts, so don’t be afraid to try some medium-sized stacks against him. Allowed power is similar to both sides with the advantage going to lefties.
Astros 4 star plays – Altuve/Bregman
Astros 3.5 star plays – Tucker
GPP note – It’s Max, so hedging is always an option. He’s allowing more contact and power to righties, currently.
San Diego Padres at San Francisco Giants
We’ll wrap up the day with the Padres and Giants, as Wacha and Walker will get the start. A modest 8.5 total, this one is split mostly down the middle as well, with just a slight nod going to the visitors. I can’t say that I agree there, and I suspect that the Padres will take this one with at least a couple of runs to spare, but we’ll see how that goes. San Fran made a pitching change at some point (for the worse), which kind of makes me think that they might agree.
Padres 4.5 star plays – Tatis/Soto
Padres 4 star plays – Machado/Sanchez, Bogaerts
GPP note – Walker is allowing decent contact and power to lefties and moderate xwOBA to righties. You can favor the lefties, but it’s not a bad idea to grab at least some exposure to the other side.
Giants 4 star plays – Pederson
Giants 3.5 star plays – Yastrzemski/Conforto, Estrada/Wade
GPP note – Wacha has been tough to both sides and carries an above-average strikeout rate, so smaller stacks are probably best here.
And that’s going to do it for this one. Thanks for joining me, and be sure to check out the coach’s notes page to see who they are most interested in. Best of luck today!
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