Full Slate Breakdown for MLB DFS 6/18:
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My Take on a Consistent MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start an MLB slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target, but gives you a holistic look at the slate as well. Breaking down pitching also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the MLB Carnage Report this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the three pitchers that jumped out to me at first glance, good or bad.
- Charlie Morton
- Zack Wheeler
- Bryce Miller
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Detroit Tigers @ Minnesota Twins
Pitchers:
Tigers – Undecided
Twins – Louie Varland
Rundown:
We are still waiting on the SP announcement and Vegas information. I would expect the Twins to be favored. One worry for Varland is that he’s giving up around 2 HR/9 with most of them being hit by RHBs. Torkelson and Vierling have been swinging it pretty damn well. The Twins offense is kind of a mess but they seem to have random guys step up for decent games. I wonder when the real Byron Buxton is going to show up.
DET 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Spencer Torkelson, Matt Vierling
GPP Note: Team ISO of .125 against RHPs.
MIN 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Donovan Solano, Carlos Correa
GPP Note: Team ISO of .175 against RHPs.
Philadelphia Phillies (-250) @ Oakland Athletics
Pitchers:
Phillies – Zack Wheeler
A’s – Hogan Harris
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. This feels like just a smash PHI spot, from top to bottom. Wheeler is in such a great spot that we are probably disappointed with even an above average performance. The PHI LHBs have been solid but it’ll be their RHBs that are key today. I really hope that Realmuto is in the Sunday lineup as he’s been swinging it really freaking well. I don’t mind LvL spots like Stott and Harper.
PHI 5-star plays: Nick Castellanos
4-star plays: Bryson Stott, JT Realmuto
GPP Note: Team ISO of .182 against LHPs.
OAK 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Seth Brown
GPP Note: Team ISO of .128 against RHPs.
Chicago White Sox @ Seattle Mariners (-165)
Pitchers:
White Sox – Lance Lynn
Mariners – Bryce Miller
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. Miller bounced back after a rough couple of starts with a pretty strong performance against MIA. The White Sox have been showing the power of late but very little else. Miller should be in for an upside game. Lynn has had his issues this season but he can still pick up Ks and the Mariners strike out plenty. Hernandez and France are rolling at the plate so I am very interested in SEA as a mini-stack option.
CWS 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Luis Robert, Gavin Sheets
GPP Note: Team ISO of .152 against RHPs.
SEA 5-star plays: Teoscar Hernandez
4-star plays: Ty France, Julio Rodriguez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .155 against RHPs.
Toronto Blue Jays @ Texas Rangers (-125)
Pitchers:
Blue Jays – Chris Bassitt
Rangers – Jon Gray
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total 0f 9. Both offenses are ones that can explode at any time but they haven’t been great recently. I think each SP is capable of a dominating performance but both are very much at risk of being blown up any time they hit the mound. Varsho has had success against Gray and is swinging it well, while Seager just keeps getting shit done at the plate for the Rangers.
TOR 5-star plays: Daulton Varsho
4-star plays: Vlad Guerrero, Whit Merrifield
GPP Note: Team ISO of .166 against RHPs.
TEX 5-star plays: Corey Seager
4-star plays: Leody Taveras, Nathaniel Lowe
GPP Note: Team ISO of .187 against RHPs.
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Los Angeles Angels (-125) @ Kansas City Royals
Pitchers:
Angels – Tyler Anderson
Royals – Zack Greinke
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9.5. This game really feels like it could explain with happiness. There is some strong BvP power upside from both sides and we like power for DFS purposes. Ohtani just hits HRs at this point while I think this could be a spot for Trout to wake up a little bit. I wouldn’t be shocked if we see multiple guys with a multi-HR game. Neither SP is going to make my pool, for obvious reasons.
LAA 5-star plays: Shohei Ohtani
4-star plays: Hunter Renfroe, Mike Trout
GPP Note: Team ISO of .184 against RHPs.
KC 5-star plays: Salvador Perez
4-star plays: MJ Melendez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .150 against LHPs.
Colorado Rockies @ Atlanta Braves (-335)
Pitchers:
Rockies – Chase Anderson
Braves – Charlie Morton
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. A majority of the Braves lineup is rolling right now but when is Austin Riley going to wake up? This one should be extremely one-sided and Vegas definitely agrees with that. Morton should end up the most popular SP on the day while the Braves probably end up as the top stack. Anderson has actually been really solid for COL but the clock should strike midnight soon.
COL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Ryan McMahon
GPP Note: Team ISO of .148 against RHPs.
ATL 5-star plays: Ronald Acuna
4-star plays: Matt Olson, Michael Harris
GPP Note: Team ISO of .195 against RHPs.
New York Yankees @ Boston Red Sox – Game 1
Pitchers:
Yankees – Clarke Schmidt
Red Sox – Brayan Bello
Rundown:
We have to pay attention to the SP announcements as I am not sure if BOS has decided who will start which game at this point. The Yankees lineup has been super weak of late so the BOS starters are very much viable, especially Bello. The Boston bats have awoken a bit and I prefer them against Schmidt today. There’s a lot of uncertainty with these games yet so stay up to date with the news in discord.
NYY 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Anthony Volpe
GPP Note: Team ISO of .183 against RHPs.
BOS 5-star plays: Justin Turner
4-star plays: Jarren Duran
GPP Note: Team ISO of just .173 against RHPs.
New York Yankees @ Boston Red Sox – Game 2
Pitchers:
Yankees – Luis Severino
Red Sox – Undecided
Rundown:
We have to pay attention to the SP announcements as I am not sure if BOS has decided who will start which game at this point. The Yankees lineup has been super weak of late so the BOS starters are very much viable, especially Bello. The Boston bats have awoken a bit and I prefer them against Schmidt today. There’s a lot of uncertainty with these games yet so stay up to date with the news in discord.
NYY 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Anthony Volpe
GPP Note: Team ISO of .183 against RHPs.
BOS 5-star plays: Justin Turner
4-star plays: Alex Verdugo
GPP Note: Team ISO of just .173 against RHPs.
Cleveland Guardians (-115) @ Arizona Diamondbacks
Pitchers:
Guardians – Tanner Bibee
D’Backs – Zach Davies
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. I know the Guardians are a weak swinging offense but I wouldn’t be shocked if we saw 12+ runs scored in this one. I love the upside that the D’Backs offense provides while Davies is a guy that should allow some runs today. RH power against Bibee can be a thing so Walker lines up in a great spot with a guy like Gurriel Jr or even Longoria being a sneaky option for us.
CLE 5-star plays: Josh Bell
4-star plays: Jose Ramirez, Andres Gimenez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .120 against RHPs.
ARI 5-star plays: Christian Walker, Corbin Carroll
4-star plays: Jake McCarthy, Ketel Marte
GPP Note: Team ISO of .184 against RHPs.
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Cincinnati Reds @ Houston Astros (-155)
Pitchers:
Reds – Luke Weaver
Astros – Ronel Blanco
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. Weaver and his reverse splits might have some struggles with a majority of the HOU lineup. CIN’s offense hasn’t been as potent of late so they might be coming back down to earth, making Blanco an intriguing punt option on DK. Abreu has definitely been waking up recently and the Astros needed that to happen with Yordan going on the IL for an extended period of time.
CIN 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jonathan India, Will Benson
GPP Note: Team ISO of .138 against RHPs.
HOU 5-star plays: Jose Abreu
4-star plays: Jose Altuve, Kyle Tucker
GPP Note: Team ISO of .147 against RHPs.
Miami Marlins (-160) @ Washington Nationals
Pitchers:
Marlins – Jesus Luzardo
Nationals – Patrick Corbin
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. Luzardo is capable of being absolutely dominant nearly every time he takes the mound. He gets such a weak match-up that he has to be somebody we want to be overweight on. This game brings us my two favorite bats when they are facing LHPs. Soler is absolutely destroying LHPs this season while Thomas isn’t far behind him and he’s been great against Luzardo.
MIA 5-star plays: Jorge Soler
4-star plays: Yuli Gurriel
GPP Note: Team ISO of .150 against LHPs.
WSH 5-star plays: Lane Thomas
4-star plays: Jeimer Candelario
GPP Note: Team ISO of .137 against LHPs.
St Louis Cardinals @ New York Mets (-135)
Pitchers:
Cardinals – Matthew Liberatore
Mets – Carlos Carrasco
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9.5. I feel like this is a spot for STL but that’s really tough to trust. Liberatore has had struggles with RHBs but most of the Mets lineup has hit a wall as they have a team OPS of just .663 over the last week. I’m not a big Carrasco fan at this point but he has had some decent starts recently but his K numbers just aren’t there and he’s allowing baserunners.
STL 5-star plays: Paul Goldschmidt
4-star plays: Jordan Walker, Nolan Arenado
GPP Note: Team ISO of .175 against RHPs.
NYM 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Brandon Nimmo, Francisco Lindor
GPP Note: Team ISO of .159 against LHPs.
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Tampa Bay Rays @ San Diego Padres (-155)
Pitchers:
Rays – Yonny Chirinos
Padres – Joe Musgrove
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. It’s a little shocking to me to see that Vegas thinks the Padres are a -155 favorite against TB, with Musgrove on the mound. The Padres lineup has been more potent than the Rays of late but man, I still think this is a sneaky TB spot. Raley is somebody that intrigues me a ton from them at this point. I really wish Josh Lowe would wake up and go on a tear soon.
TB 5-star plays: Luke Raley
4-star plays: Wander Franco
GPP Note: Team ISO of .202 against RHPs.
SD 5-star plays: Fernando Tatis
4-star plays: Xander Bogaerts
GPP Note: Team ISO of .154 against RHPs.
San Francisco Giants @ Los Angeles Dodgers (-140)
Pitchers:
Giants – Logan Webb
Dodgers – Tony Gonsolin
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. There are plenty of bats to love in this game as the top of the Dodgers lineup has hit Webb really well in their previous match-ups. The SF LHBs have either crushed Gonsolin or are hot right now. I want to be all about the over in this spot. I am looking for Freddie to wake up a little bit and provide a multi-hit game while somebody like Brandon Crawford picks up a surprise HR.
SF 5-star plays: Lamont Wade
4-star plays: Brandon Crawford, Joc Pederson
GPP Note: Team ISO of .181 against RHPs.
LAD 5-star plays: Freddie Freeman
4-star plays: Mookie Betts
GPP Note: Team ISO of .196 against RHPs.
Baltimore Orioles (-120) @ Chicago Cubs
Pitchers:
Orioles – Dean Kremer
Cubs – Jameson Taillon
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. I wish the Cubs had more LHBs to take on the weakness of Kremer. Morel just keeps hitting HRs and racking up extra-base hits. I think the Orioles are in the far better spot today so I am curious to see if there’s much wind to affect anything. Plenty of the Baltimore lineup are waking up and we could see a bit of an explosion from them based on how Taillon has looked this season.
BAL 5-star plays: Gunnar Henderson
4-star plays: Adley Rutschman, Austin Hays
GPP Note: Team ISO of .171 against RHPs.
CHC 5-star plays: Christopher Morel
4-star plays: Ian Happ
GPP Note: Team ISO of .137 against RHPs.
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers (-165)
Pitchers:
Pirates – Luis Ortiz
Brewers – Freddy Peralta
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. I want to be all about Peralta today but he has burned me bad, in great spots this season. Yelich has been heating up and now he faces an RHP that is getting smashed by LHBs. Maybe this is a spot for Tellez to wake up and go deep for the first time, in what seems like a year. Reynolds has had a ton of success against Peralta while McCutchen has been strong against him as well.
PIT 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Andrew McCutchen, Bryan Reynolds
GPP Note: Team ISO of .158 against RHPs.
MIL 5-star plays: Christian Yelich
4-star plays: Rowdy Tellez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .152 against RHPs.
Stacks of the Day: Main Slate
- Atlanta Braves
- Baltimore Orioles
- Los Angeles Angels
MLB Dinger of the Day – Jorge Soler, Marlins
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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