Hello again everybody, and welcome to today’s MLB Full Count breakdown! I’m nilly and I run the carnage report and DraftKings tiers tools. I also coach NASCAR, so be sure to check us out every weekend over there, too. We get a lone solo game followed by a juicy 14-game main slate for this Friday. There are all sorts of neat options today, including a small army of pitchers with 500+ KSCOREs – even one that tops 600! On the other side of the coin, there are plenty of pitchers that look like good targets to pick on, and we have a whopping seven pitchers with SIERAs north of the 5.0 mark. There’s a lot to cover, so let’s get to it!
A look at pitchers
As mentioned above, we have a slew of pitching options today, ranging from one with a 600+ KSCORE all the way down to Shuster and his 5.5+ SIERA. There are plenty close to both ends, such as Guasman and McKenzie with solid KSCOREs of 540+ each. On the other hand, guys like Megill and Perez look to be in spots to get roughed up, so their opponents are sure to be popular options. For cash games, paying up for Ryan seems to be a good safe bet. As always be sure to check out the coach’s notes page to see who they are most interested in.
Early game
Baltimore Orioles at Chicago Cubs
We’ll kick things off with our showdown game between the Orioles and Cubs. Irvin and Hendricks will get the start here, along with a rather uninspiring 7.5 total. Cherry picking the right bats will be crucial here, so it might be best to just focus on the main slate unless you really enjoy the single game slates.
Orioles 4 star plays – Santander/Rutschman
Orioles 3.5 star plays – Henderson, Hicks/Frazier
GPP note – While Hendricks doesn’t carry a big strikeout rate, he’s good at mitigating damage, so picking the right bats can be tricky. He is allowing a bit more power to righties though, so that could be one way to go.
Cubs 4 star plays – Suzuki/Happ
Cubs 3.5 star plays – Swanson, Gomes
GPP note – There’s not a ton of love from Vegas for these bats either, though Irvin is allowing a good chunk of xwOBA to righties.
Main slate
Miami Marlins at Washington Nationals
The Marlins and Nationals will lead the way for our featured slate now, and they will start Alcantara and Williams. There are some possible weather concerns, so be sure to keep an eye on things as we approach lock. We wouldn’t want to ruin any of our lineups from a first-game rainout!
Marlins 4.5 star plays – Arraez
Marlins 4 star plays – Soler/De La Cruz
GPP note – Great spot for these guys, as Williams is allowing all sorts of contact and power to both sides (more to righties), and Vegas gives them their blessing.
Nationals 4 star plays – Candelario
Nationals 3.5 star plays – Meneses/Ruiz
GPP note – Alcantara’s last handful of starts haven’t really gone to plan, as his strikeout rate has dropped and he’s allowing some decent contact and power to both sides. Throwing some contrarian stacks against him might not be a bad idea.
New York Yankees at Boston Red Sox
Next up we have our Yankees & Red Sox rivalry game, this time at Fenway. German and Houck will get the start here, along with a healthy 9.5 total. It’s a shame that Judge won’t be present for this one, but perhaps the other bats can turn this one into a slugfest.
Yankees 4 star plays – Bauers, Stanton
Yankees 3.5 star plays – Rizzo
GPP note – Houck has been stingy to righties but has allowed good power to lefties, so some traditional splits are in play here.
Red Sox 4 star plays – Devers/Yoshida
Red Sox 3.5 star plays – Verdugo/Turner
GPP note – German is allowing moderate xwOBA to both sides and average power to righties, so you don’t have to have tunnel vision with the lefties.
St Louis Cardinals at New York Mets
Next up we have the Cardinals and Mets, with Mikolas and Megill on the mound. We get an 8.5 total for this one, but also some serious looking weather concerns, so there’s a decent chance that we won’t see this one play out. As usual, be sure to keep an eye on the skies!
Cardinals 5 star plays – Goldschmidt
Cardinals 4 star plays – Arenado/Gorman, Walker
GPP note – Megill comes in with a low strikeout rate and is allowing good contact to both sides, so this could be a better spot than what Vegas is eluding to.
Mets 4 star plays – Lindor
Mets 3.5 star plays – Nimmo/McNeil
GPP note – Mikolas isn’t allowing very much and overall has a low strikeout rate, but as we saw with KC, if given the opportunity, he can have plenty of upside in him.
Colorado Rockies at Atlanta Braves
Lamet and the Rockies will take on Shuster and the Braves next, along with a slate-best 10.0 total. Most of that is being given to the home team, though I do feel that the Rockies will have a decent chance to make some noise here. A good matchup can make up for the fact that they aren’t playing at home.
Rockies 4 star plays – McMahon/Profar
Rockies 3.5 star plays – Tovar
GPP note – Shuster is allowing some good contact and power to lefties, so you could try to roll one or two out with any righties that you use.
Braves 5 star plays – Acuna
Braves 4 star plays – Olson/Albies, Ozuna/Riley
GPP note – Lamet is allowing plenty to lefties but not very much to righties. However, these bats will probably see the bullpen quickly anyway, so hand matchup won’t matter very much.
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Toronto Blue Jays at Texas Rangers
Our next matchup will be between the Blue Jays and Rangers, as Gausman and Perez will square off with an 8.5 total. Vegas likes the visitors here, though not by a ton, which is a little interesting considering the gap between starters. Perhaps they know something, or are they are asleep at the wheel?
Blue Jays 5 star plays – Guerrero/Springer
Blue Jays 4 star plays – Chapman/Bichette, Merrifield
GPP note – Perez is allowing lots of contact and power to both sides and comes in with a low strikeout rate, making this a solid spot for this offense.
Rangers 4 star plays – Seager, Semien
Rangers 3.5 star plays – Lowe/Jung/Heim
GPP note – Tough spot against Gausman, but contrarian stacks are in play as these bats are hitting righties quite well.
Detroit Tigers at Minnesota Twins
Next up we have Alexander and the Tigers taking on Ryan and the Twins. It’s too early for any insight from Vegas, but considering the matchup, I don’t think they’re going to give Detroit a whole lot of love here.
Tigers 5 star plays – none
Tigers 3.5 star plays – McKinstry, Baez
GPP note – Tough spot here too, so contrarian stacks only.
Twins 4.5 star plays – Buxton/Correa
Twins 4 star plays – Taylor
GPP note – Plenty of these bats are hitting left-handed pitchers for some pop, and the lefties have the power advantage against him.
Cincinnati Reds at Houston Astros
Moving right along, our next will be between the Reds and Astros with Abbott and France on the hill. A decent 8.5 total, it’ll be interesting to see if Abbott can keep his momentum going. If he can do his part and if his offense does theirs, I could see an upset happening here.
Reds 4 star plays – De La Cruz, Friedl
Reds 3.5 star plays – India/Steer
GPP note – Vegas isn’t giving these bats much love but France is allowing good power and contact to righties, and most of these bats are hitting right-handed pitching for some decent pop, so don’t be afraid to try your luck here.
Astros 4 star plays – Altuve/Bregman
Astros 3.5 star plays – Tucker, Pena
GPP note – Abbott has impressed thus far, so we’ll see how he can handle these bats. It wouldn’t be a bad idea to hedge since he has shown plenty of upside for the price.
Pittsburgh Pirates at Milwaukee Brewers
Hill and the Pirates will take on Teheran and the Brewers next, and we get another 8.5 total. The home team is favored here, though not by a ton, so this could be a close one. It could be a decent spot to hedge, because like I was talking about yesterday, Hill does carry some upside in him at a very reasonable price.
Pirates 4.5 star plays – Suwinski/Reynolds, McCutchen
Pirates 3.5 star plays – Santana/Hayes
GPP note – Teheran is allowing moderate power to righties, putting them in play along with the lefties.
Brewers 4 star plays – Contreras/Yelich
Brewers 3.5 star plays – Miller
GPP note – Hill has been holding his own lately but there is some strikeout upside here, so hedging wouldn’t be a terrible idea.
Los Angeles Angels at Kansas City Royals
We head to the K for our next game, this one between the Angels and my Royals. Sandoval and Singer will get the nod here, and we get a 9.5 total for them. That’s a rather high total for this stadium, so Vegas must be expecting the worst from the pitching here. It’s not sexy to stack games here, but this one might be worth considering.
Angels 4.5 star plays – Ohtani Trout
Angels 3.5 star plays – Thaiss/Ward
GPP note – Good spot for the lefties, though Singer has been stingy to righties. He also carries a decent strikeout rate, so it wouldn’t be a terrible idea to try a little hedging for a budget SP2.
Royals 4 star plays – Perez/Witt
Royals 3.5 star plays – Olivares/Garcia
GPP note – Sandoval is allowing good contact and power to righties, making them the main focus of this offense.
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Late games
Cleveland Guardians at Arizona Diamondbacks
We’ll head to our late games next, starting with the Guardians and Diamondbacks. McKenzie and Gallen get the start here, as we move down to an 8.0 total. Both pitchers are capable of a solid outing, so this is one of the games where an “under” bet feels relatively “safe” (however safe anything in baseball is, at least).
Guardians 4 star plays – Ramirez/Bell
Guardians 3.5 star plays – Naylor/Gimenez
GPP note – Not the best spot against Gallen, though eh is allowing some power to lefties and xwOBA to both sides.
Diamondbacks 4.5 star plays – Carroll
Diamondbacks 3.5 star plays – Marte/Gurriel/Walker
GPP note – McKenzie has shown some strikeout upside in his return and has only allowed modest power to righties, so smaller stacks may be better than larger ones.
Philadelphia Phillies at Oakland Athletics
Next up we have the Phillies and Athletics, with Walker and Sears on the mound. An 8.5 total, this is another game where the better team is the favorite, but not by nearly as much as one might expect. Will the A’s turn out to be a dud, or will they become the budget bombers that we all wish we had more exposure to?
Phillies 4.5 star plays – Harper, Turner/Castellanos
Phillies 3.5 star plays – Schwarber/Bohm
GPP note – Sears is allowing above-average xwOBA to both sides and some decent power to righties, so bats on both sides are worth looking at.
Athletics 5 star plays – none
Athletics 3.5 star plays – Brown/Ruiz
GPP note – It’s not a great spot, but Walker is allowing modest xwOBA to lefties.
Tampa Bay Rays at San Diego Padres
We get a stud matchup next, as McClanahan and the Rays will take on Darvish and the Padres. A 7.5 total, Vegas has this one split mostly down the middle, with an ever-so-slight edge to the visitors. I know I’m old fashioned (or you can call me boring, I can take it), but I’d just love to see a one-to-nothing pitcher’s duel come from this one.
Rays 4 star plays – Franco/Arozarena/Lowe
Rays 3.5 star plays – Diaz/Siri
GPP note – Attacking Darvish can be hit-or-miss, but he is allowing some power to both sides to go along with his strikeout upside.
Padres 4 star plays – Machado/Tatis, Soto/Bogaerts
Padres 3.5 star plays – Sanchez/Kim
GPP note – Basically the same as above, though it’s some xwOBA that McClanahan is allowing to lefties instead of power (righties are getting a little bit of both).
San Fransico Giants at Los Angeles Dodgers
Brebbia/Manaea (plus whoever else) and the Giants will take on Andriese and the Dodgers next. I’d imagine that the Dodgers will be favored here, though as of early this morning, we don’t have any insight from them. That’s probably because of the goofy pitching situation at hand, but hey, at least they keep things interesting one way or another.
Giants 4 star plays – Pederson/Estrada/Conforto/Yastrzemski
Giants 3.5 star plays – Wade
GPP note – It’s hard to know what to expect from Andriese, but several of these bats are hitting righties well, so it’s worth taking some shots here.
Dodgers 4.5 star plays – Betts/Freeman
Dodgers 3.5 star plays – Martinez/Smith
GPP note – Manaea has held his own and carries a decent strikeout rate, but does allow some power to both sides.
Chicago White Sox at Seattle Mariners
And finally, we’ll wrap up the day with the White Sox and Mariners. Kopech and Woo get get the start here, and we cap off the day with a bit of a bland 8.0 total. That does put both pitchers on the radar, which is nice considering that both of them are reasonably priced.
White Sox 4 star plays – Robert/Anderson/Burger
White Sox 3.5 star plays – Benintendi
GPP note – Woo showed some promise in his debut, so if you do go here, be sure to hedge since he’s so cheap.
Mariners 4 star plays – Rodriguez/Hernandez
Mariners 3.5 star plays – Kelenic/Crawford
GPP note – Kopech seems to have found a groove, so be careful going too heavy here blindly. Righties get the power advantage against him.
And that’s going to do it for this one. Thanks for joining me, and be sure to check out the coach’s notes page to see who they are most interested in. Best of luck today!
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