Hello again everybody, and welcome to today’s MLB Full Count breakdown! I’m nilly and I run the carnage report and DraftKings tiers tools. I also coach NASCAR, so be sure to check us out every weekend over there, too. It’s travel-day Thursday, and with that we get a few early games followed by a 7-game main slate. We have a handful of studs, budget options, and gas cans in the mix for starters, so there will be some interesting ways to go with some good offenses that may be worth a fade today. There’s a lot to cover, so let’s get to it!
A look at pitchers
Bradley stands out as an all-purpose option for the early slate, as he will get the only 3.xx implied total with the softest offense to face. For the main slate, our cash guy may be Gray for the same reasons, though there are others with some strikeout upside to consider, such as Boyd and Hill. Or, you can go to the top and grab some extra shares of guys like Ohtani or Eovaldi, and hope they can keep up in terms of value compared to the cheaper arms. As always be sure to check out the coach’s notes page to see who they are most interested in.
Early games
Toronto Blue Jays at Baltimore Orioles
We’ll kick things off with the Blue Jays and Orioles, with Kikuchi and Wells on the mound. We get a 9.0 total for all three of the early games, though if I had to guess, I’d say that this one has the best chance of leading the pack (especially if gas can Kikuchi shows up instead of the stud version). Hedging is always an option, and this would be one of the better games to do so with.
Blue Jays 4.5 star plays – Guerrero/Springer
Blue Jays 4 star plays – Bichette/Varsho, Merrifield
GPP note – Wells carries plenty of strikeout upside but is also allowing good power to both sides of the plate, so this could be a good spot to hedge.
Orioles 4.5 star plays – Santander/Rutschman
Orioles 4 star plays – Hays
GPP note – Kikuchi is a good hedge target as well, given his high highs and low lows. Aside from that, righties have the statcast advantage.
Tampa Bay Rays at Oakland Athletics
Next up we have Bradley and the Rays set to take on Blackburn and the Athletics. The Rays are the favorites here, which shouldn’t be much of a surprise, but this is baseball, so goofy things can always happen. For cash games though, you’re probably best off taking Bradley and avoiding the underdog.
Rays 5 star plays – Arozarena, Franco
Rays 4 star plays – Lowe, Diaz
GPP note – Blackburn can hold his own more than what his salary would indicate, but has been allowing plenty of power to righties, which bodes well for this offense.
Athletics 4 star plays – Rooker, Ruiz
Athletics 3.5 star plays – Peterson
GPP note – Not a great spot, but a few small contrarian stacks could be okay. Righties have the advantage here, too.
Philadelphia Phillies at Arizona Diamondbacks
We’ll round out the early games with the Phillies and Diamondbacks, with Nola and Nelson on the mound. The Phillies are favored the same as the O’s are, which is kind of interesting considering the overall matchup, so we’ll see how this one plays out. It’s hard to feel great about a starter who isn’t favored very heavily over one that is $5k cheaper on DK, so perhaps they are on to something.
Phillies 5 star plays – Harper
Phillies 4 star plays – Schwarber, Castellanos
GPP note – Nelson comes in with a low strikeout rate and a ton given up to lefties, making this one of the better spots to go on this slate.
Diamondbacks 4 star plays – Carroll
Diamondbacks 3.5 star plays – Marte, Gurriel/Walker
GPP note – Nola is Nola so it’s a risk to go heavy against him, but he is allowing some solid power to righties.
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Main slate
Detroit Tigers at Minnesota Twins
We’ll switch over to the main slate now, starting with the Tigers and Twins. Boyd and Gray will get the nod here, along with an 8.0 total. This one looks pretty straight forward, though I could see Boyd pitching above his pay grade here. He could make for a good SP2 target in tournaments, but like some of the others today, we’ll see which version of him shows up.
Tigers 4 star plays – McKinstry
Tigers 3.5 star plays – Baez
GPP note – It’s not a great spot, though Gray’s strikeout rate has calmed down some and he is allowing decent xwOBA to both sides.
Twins 4.5 star plays – Correa
Twins 3.5 star plays – Solano, Taylor
GPP note – Traditional splits are the way to go against Boyd, though there is a decent amount of strikeout potential in this matchup.
Colorado Rockies at Atlanta Braves
Next up we have the Rockies and Braves, with Freeland and Smith-Shawver on the hill. It looks like we may have some weather concerns for this one, so be sure to keep an eye on the skies, as it would be a shame to lose an offense in such a good spot. If they play as normal, we could see another good SP2 option with Atlanta’s starter, as I could see him returning plenty of value without too much trouble.
Rockies 4 star plays – McMahon, Profar
Rockies 3 star plays – Jones, Moustakas
GPP note – Smith-Shawver hasn’t shown a ton of strikeout upside but he isn’t allowing a whole lot either, but he is cheap enough to consider hedging with.
Braves 5 star plays – Acuna
Braves 4 star plays – Ozuna/Riley/Harris, Olson
GPP note – Freeland has a low strikeout rate and allows good power to both sides, so it’s business as usual here.
Pittsburgh Pirates at Chicago Cubs
Moving right along, Hill and the Pirates will take on Stroman and the Cubs next. It looks like this will be our low-total matchup of the day, which puts the spotlight on both starters. Wouldn’t you know it, but one of them happens to be another cheap option on DK today. I’m not sure why they dropped Hill’s salary so much, so we’ll see if he turns out to be a trap or a free square.
Pirates 4 star plays – Reynolds/McCutchen
Pirates 3.5 star plays – Suwinski/Hayes/Joe
GPP note – Tough spot against Stroman, though some of these bats are hitting righties well enough to throw some contrarian stacks against him.
Cubs 4 star plays – Suzuki/Happ
Cubs 3.5 star plays – Hoerner, Gomes/Mancini
GPP note – Hill is allowing decent xwOBA and power to righties, but carries a decent strikeout rate and is awfully cheap on DK. This could be a good spot to hedge (or fade) for a budget SP2.
Los Angeles Angels at Texas Rangers
We get a couple of studs up next, as Ohtani and the Angels will take on Eovaldi and the Rangers. Despite their prowess, we still get an 8.0 total to start off with. We do have some big bats on either end, so it’ll be interesting to see what the money says about this game as the day progresses.
Angels 4.5 star plays – Trout
Angels 3.5 star plays – Ward/Thaiss
GPP note – Not a great spot against Eovaldi, but you can always roll out some of the big bats.
Rangers 4 star plays – Seager
Rangers 3.5 star plays – Semien/Lowe, Taveras/Grossman
GPP note – Same as above, though Ohtani has allowed some decent power to lefties on occasion.
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Washington Nationals at Houston Astros
We’ll head to our other Texas game next, this one between the Nationals and Astros. Gore and Javier will get the start, and we get another 8.0 total for them. Vegas likes the home team, which is another one that shouldn’t be a big surprise, so we’ll see if the Nats can find something against Javier. As far as Gore goes, I don’t think he’ll go down without swinging, so we’ll see if he can keep his squad in this one for a while.
Nationals 4 star plays – Cnadelario, Garcia
Nationals 3.5 star plays – Meneses, Ruiz
GPP note – Javier isn’t a great target, though his strikeout rate has seemingly slipped away from him and he is allowing some power to lefties, so contrarian stacks aren’t out of the question.
Astros 4.5 star plays – Bregman/Altuve
Astros 4 star plays – Alvarez, Abreu
GPP note – Good Vegas support and Gore does allow decent contact and power to both sides, but he also has plenty of strikeout upside, so a hedge could be in order here.
Cleveland Guardians at San Diego Padres
We’ll head out west for our last two games, starting with the Guardians and Padres. Allen and Weathers will get the start here, along with another 8.0 total. Like the first game on the day, I think this game has a good chance of going over, and I suspect we’ll see the total move up a bit as the day goes on. If that happens, this game could be a good source of some budget bats, as not all of them are studs laced with $4.5k+ salaries.
Guardians 4.5 star plays – Ramirez
Guardians 4 star plays – Bell/Rosario
GPP note – Vegas isn’t giving these bats much love, but Weathers has a low strikeout rate and is allowing plenty of contact and power to both sides.
Padres 5 star plays – Tatis/Machado
Padres 4 star plays – Soto/Bogaerts, Grusham
GPP note – Both sides of the plate are in play here, as Allen is allowing good contact and power to both sides, though he does carry a higher strikeout rate than Weathers.
Chicago White Sox at Los Angeles Dodgers
We’ll wrap things up with the White Sox and Dodgers, as Cease will square off against Grove. An 8.5 total, the home team is favored here, though my hunch says that the White Sox will have a decent chance of keeping pace for a while. If Cease is on his A-game, I could see an upset being within reach.
White Sox 4 star plays – Benintendi
White Sox 3.5 star plays – Robert/Anderson, Burger/Vaughn, Sheets
GPP note – There are a handful of decent plays here – enough to run some contrarian stacks. Going big may be the answer here rather than going for a one-off or mini-stack.
Dodgers 4.5 star plays – Freeman/Betts
Dodgers 4 star plays – Martinez
GPP note – Cease carries an above-average strikeout rate but is allowing modest xwOBA to both sides, along with some power to lefties.
And that’s going to do it for this one. Thanks for joining me, and be sure to check out the coach’s notes page to see who they are most interested in. Best of luck today!
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