Full Slate Breakdown for MLB DFS 6/13:
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My Take on a Consistent MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start an MLB slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target, but gives you a holistic look at the slate as well. Breaking down pitching also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the MLB Carnage Report this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the three pitchers that jumped out to me at first glance, good or bad.
- Corbin Burnes
- Hunter Brown
- Joe Musgrove
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Milwaukee Brewers @ Minnesota Twins (-120)
Pitchers:
Brewers – Corbin Burnes
Twins – Pablo Lopez
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. The Twins have a few guys who are heating up but the issue is that they are still striking out a SHIT TON while dealing with injuries. Burnes lines up in a great spot despite being a slight underdog as Lopez hasn’t been sharp at home this season. The Milwaukee offense is pretty weak overall as well so I wouldn’t be shocked if we are looking at a 3-2 ballgame tonight.
MIL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Christian Yelich
GPP Note: Team ISO of .151 against RHPs.
MIN 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Carlos Correa, Royce Lewis
GPP Note: Team ISO of .173 against RHPs.
Tampa Bay Rays (-210) @ Oakland Athletics
Pitchers:
Rays – Jalen Beeks/Yonny Chirinos
A’s – Hogan Harris
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. The A’s have won 6 straight games, bringing their season total to 18…yeah, they still aren’t good. The winning streak comes to an end tonight as the Rays absolutely smash LHPs in 2023. I will go out on a limb and say the final score is something in the 6 or 7 to 2 range. The Rays have become annoying to stack with their quick hook in terms of pinch hitting for the platoon split advantages but it’s going to be tough to not be heavy on TB bats.
TB 5-star plays: Harold Ramirez
4-star plays: Wander Franco, Randy Arozarena
GPP Note: Team ISO of .244 against LHPs.
OAK 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Ramon Laureano, Jace Peterson
GPP Note: Team ISO of .132 against RHPs.
Miami Marlins @ Seattle Mariners (-140)
Pitchers:
Marlins – Edward Cabrera
Mariners – George Kirby
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. This is an intriguing SP match-up with some questions attached. Cabrera has been rough on the road and he struggles more with RHBs than LHBs (the hottest SEA hitters are RH’d). Kirby hasn’t been sharp recently so that’s a big question mark. With that being said, both SPs are capable of putting up some dominant performances so maybe this is an under the radar spot for both guys.
MIA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Luis Arraez, Yuli Gurriel
GPP Note: Team ISO of .139 against RHPs.
SEA 5-star plays: Ty France
4-star plays: Teoscar Hernandez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .152 against RHPs.
Toronto Blue Jays (-125) @ Baltimore Orioles
Pitchers:
Blue Jays – Chris Bassitt
Orioles – Dean Kremer
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. Vlad is 6 for 19 with 4 HRs against Kremer but he comes into this game pretty cold. Which side will win out? Kremer has allowed 3+ runs in 3 of his last 5 starts and 3 HRs over his last 2. Bassitt has been really strong but a few of the BAL bats are hot at the plate, especially Gunnar. This game has the feeling of one that could explode, even with solid pitching on the mound.
TOR 5-star plays: Vlad Guerrero
4-star plays: Kevin Kiermaier, Brandon Belt
GPP Note: Team ISO of .167 against RHPs.
BAL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Gunnar Henderson, Ryan O’Hearn
GPP Note: Team ISO of .172 against RHPs.
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Los Angeles Angels @ Texas Rangers (-135)
Pitchers:
Angels – Jaime Barria
Rangers – NO IDEA
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. I haven’t seen any kind of lean as to who the Rangers roll out today. I wouldn’t be shocked if the Rangers call up their top pitching prospect, Owen White, to make his debut (not sure if he’s on the 40 man or not). This is Jon Gray’s turn in the rotation but he’s dealing with blisters. White lines up as being on normal rest but they might not want to promote him yet, either. Barria has looked really solid but the issue is that the Texas Rangers bats are putting up a ton of runs this season. ***UPDATE*** I did some digging and White IS on the 40 man.
LAA 5-star plays: Shohei Ohtani
4-star plays: Mike Trout
GPP Note: Team ISO of .178 against RHPs.
TEX 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Corey Seager, Adolis Garcia
GPP Note: Team ISO of .184 against RHPs.
Atlanta Braves (-267) @ Detroit Tigers
Pitchers:
Braves – Spencer Strider
Tigers – Reese Olson
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. Let’s be honest, we have no desire to target anything associated with Detroit here. Carpenter is swinging a really hot bat since his IL return but strikeouts should be the key thing today. Olson has looked really good in his first 10 MLB innings but this is the Braves offense we are talking about here. We should expect some regression to hit soon for Olson.
ATL 5-star plays: Michael Harris
4-star plays: Ronald Acuna Jr, Orlando Arcia
GPP Note: Team ISO of .185 against RHPs.
DET 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Kerry Carpenter
GPP Note: Team ISO of .121 against RHPs.
Colorado Rockies @ Boston Red Sox (-240)
Pitchers:
Rockies – Chase Anderson
Red Sox – Kutter Crawford
Rundown:
This game opened with a total of 9.5. Anderson has been very solid for the Rockies but it’s only a matter of time before that regression monster wakes up. Crawford isn’t completely stretched out but I wouldn’t be shocked to see him in the 70-75 pitch range. Nolan Jones has made an impact since being called up and he’s showcasing what made him a big prospect for Cleveland a few years ago. Turner looks like he’s in a great spot tonight for Boston.
COL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Nolan Jones, Jurickson Profar
GPP Note: Team ISO of .150 against RHPs.
BOS 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Justin Turner, Jarren Duran
GPP Note: Team ISO of just .168 against RHPs.
Philadelphia Phillies (-135) @ Arizona Diamondbacks
Pitchers:
Phillies – Zack Wheeler
D’Backs – Zach Davies
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. Schwarber is just 6 for 32 against Davies but 4 of those 6 hits have been HRs. I want to believe that the Phillies offense will wake up soon but they just aren’t making things happen yet. Davies has been hit hard at home so far in 2023. Carroll has been absolutely locked in of late while Wheeler has started to turn a slow start around. I still like ARI a bit but they aren’t a top tier, slam dunk stack on this slate.
PHI 5-star plays: Kyle Schwarber
4-star plays: Nick Castellanos, Trea Turner
GPP Note: Team ISO of .152 against RHPs.
ARI 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Corbin Carroll, Christian Walker
GPP Note: Team ISO of .178 against RHPs.
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Washington Nationals @ Houston Astros (-267)
Pitchers:
Nationals – Patrick Corbin
Astros – Hunter Brown
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. We know that we love to pick on Patrick Corbin but the Astros are a team that I can’t really trust right now. Abreu looks to be “heating” up but he has just a .769 OPS over the last week with 10 Ks. Corbin has been serviceable so maybe we aren’t just instantly trying to attack him. Brown is the largest favorite on the slate and should be pretty solid. He hasn’t been as sharp at home as the walks are a big issue right now.
WSH 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Lane Thomas
GPP Note: Team ISO of .120 against LHPs.
HOU 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Chas McCormick, Jose Abreu
GPP Note: Team ISO of .177 against LHPs.
Cincinnati Reds @ Kansas City Royals (-115)
Pitchers:
Reds – Brandon Williamson
Royals – Jordan Lyles
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 10. Lyles is allowing an HR/9 of over 2 on the season. On the other side, the same can be said for Williamson but his sample is much smaller than Lyles’. 5 of the 6 HRs that he has allowed have been at home so he hasn’t been as rough on the road. The problem is that the Royals offense has been scuffling quite a bit, even after they put up a few runs last night. I know KC is favored but the Reds side seems like the one with the greater ceiling.
CIN 5-star plays: Elly De La Cruz
4-star plays: Matt McLain, Tyler Stephenson
GPP Note: Team ISO of .138 against RHPs.
KC 5-star plays: Bobby Witt Jr
4-star plays: Salvador Perez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .149 against LHPs.
New York Yankees @ New York Mets (-155)
Pitchers:
Yankees – Luis Severino
Mets – Max Scherzer
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. Man, when you take Judge out of the NYY lineup is gets really ugly, fast. Add in that Rizzo hasn’t had a hit since 2020 and you get a weak opponent for Scherzer. Stanton does have 3 HRs in 24 ABs against Scherzer but he also has 12 Ks. A very similar situation for the Mets as they are without Alonso but the similarities end when talking about each team missing their top hitter. The Mets lineup has names of guys who have and can get it done on any given night. Severino is a strong option but he has given up 6 HRs over his last 2 starts and that’s ugly.
NYY 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Giancarlo Stanton
GPP Note: Team ISO of .184 against RHPs.
NYM 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Francisco Lindor, Brandon Nimmo
GPP Note: Team ISO of .155 against RHPs.
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Cleveland Guardians @ San Diego Padres (-170)
Pitchers:
Guardians – Tanner Bibee
Padres – Joe Musgrove
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. The main bats for CLE are swinging it really well right now and Bell has hit Musgrove extremely well in their previous match-ups. This is such an interesting spot as the Guardians are weak from a power standpoint overall but Musgrove has struggled at home so far in 2023. Bibee hasn’t been sharp on the road but he gets a struggling SD squad who is coming out of a series in Coors. I really can see this game going either way tonight.
CLE 5-star plays: Jose Ramirez
4-star plays: Josh Naylor, Josh Bell
GPP Note: Team ISO of .122 against RHPs.
SD 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Juan Soto, Fernando Tatis
GPP Note: Team ISO of .150 against RHPs.
San Francisco Giants @ St Louis Cardinals (-115)
Pitchers:
Giants – Alex Cobb
Cardinals – Jack Flaherty
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. Flaherty has not been good at home so far in 2023 but he seems to have figured some things out recently, even if his walk rate hasn’t come down all that much overall. Cobb dominated STL at home, throwing a complete game shutout but he has been pretty bad on the road so far this season. He’s getting hit by LHBs while RHBs are supplying the power against him.
SF 5-star plays: Joc Pederson
4-star plays: Michael Conforto
GPP Note: Team ISO of .183 against RHPs.
STL 5-star plays: Nolan Arenado
4-star plays: Jordan Walker
GPP Note: Team ISO of .178 against RHPs.
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago Cubs (-130)
Pitchers:
Pirates – Luis Ortiz
Cubs – Jameson Taillon
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. I will be honest, I am looking at this game as if it is going to be PPD tonight. Taillon has been atrocious for the Cubs so the Pirates would be on my radar should the weather magically clear up. Ortiz has been crushed by LHBs, especially when on the road so the Cubs would be interesting as well. If the game is said to be clear enough to play, we will have to figure out where the wind is and go from there.
PIT 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Ke’Bryan Hayes, Jack Suwinski
GPP Note: Team ISO of .162 against RHPs.
CHC 5-star plays: Matt Mervis
4-star plays: Seiya Suzuki
GPP Note: Team ISO of .140 against RHPs.
Chicago White Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers (-205)
Pitchers:
White Sox – Lance Lynn
Dodgers – Tony Gonsolin
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. Lynn has been absolutely demolished by LHBs so far in 2023. They have a triple slash line of .362/.413/.702 through 154 PAs. The Dodgers have some power from the left side but they also have Mookie Betts who is 5 for 16 with an HR against Lynn. Gonsolin hasn’t been super sharp and hasn’t racked up many Ks but the CWS lineup is pretty weak, especially if he’s able to avoid Luis Robert right now.
CHW 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jake Burger, Luis Robert
GPP Note: Team ISO of .146 against RHPs.
LAD 5-star plays: Mookie Betts
4-star plays: Freddie Freeman, David Peralta
GPP Note: Team ISO of .205 against RHPs.
Stacks of the Day: Main Slate
- Los Angeles Dodgers
- Tampa Bay Rays
- Cincinnati Reds
MLB Dinger of the Day – Joc Pederson, Giants
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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