Full Slate Breakdown for MLB DFS 6/10:
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My Take on a Consistent MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start an MLB slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target, but gives you a holistic look at the slate as well. Breaking down pitching also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the MLB Carnage Report this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the three pitchers that jumped out to me at first glance, good or bad.
- Michael Kopech
- Tristan McKenzie
- JP France
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Minnesota Twins @ Toronto Blue Jays
Pitchers:
Twins – Joe Ryan
Blue Jays – Bowden Francis
Rundown:
We are still waiting on Vegas information. I have seen rumors that Francis will get his first start. He has showcased strong K numbers at AAA so maybe he’s in play for us on the main slate. Ryan is strong but is this a match-up I want to pay his price tag in? I don’t think it is so maybe this game ends up one where I go severely underweight and focus my attention on some of the other spots that I feel are better.
MIN 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Michael Taylor, Royce Lewis
GPP Note: Team ISO of .170 against RHPs.
TOR 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Daulton Varsho, Brandon Belt
GPP Note: Team ISO of .170 against RHPs.
Oakland Athletics @ Milwaukee Brewers (-195)
Pitchers:
Athletics – Paul Blackburn
Brewers – Julio Teheran
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. It looks like we really have to consider Julio Teheran today. What a world we live in. He has actually thrown the ball really well since signing with Milwaukee and now he faces the worst team in baseball, despite them being on a 3-game win streak. Wiemer and Noda are two of the hotter hitters in baseball right now so they are intriguing one-off options from this one.
OAK 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Ryan Noda, Jace Peterson
GPP Note: Team ISO of .132 against RHPs.
MIL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Joey Wiemer, Christian Yelich
GPP Note: Team ISO of .155 against RHPs.
Miami Marlins (-115) @ Chicago White Sox
Pitchers:
Marlins – Sandy Alcantara
White Sox – Michael Kopech
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. Kopech is going to be one of my top options as the Marlins offense just lacks punch overall. He does have an HR issue but will MIA be able to take advantage? The walk issues are my main concern. Alcantara hasn’t been elite by any means but some of his underlying numbers say that he should see some positive regression going forward. Can we start to see that today?
MIA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Luis Arraez, Bryan De La Cruz
GPP Note: Team ISO of .136 against RHPs.
CWS 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Luis Robert
GPP Note: Team ISO of .144 against RHPs.
Kansas City Royals @ Baltimore Orioles (-155)
Pitchers:
Royals – Brady Singer
Orioles – Cole Irvin
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. Both SPs come into spots where the opposing lineup is going through some struggles. I really believe we could see either of these SPs end up as the winning SP2 on DK today. I pointed it out in my pitching video this morning. Singer has started to turn things around and the Orioles offense is scuffling some over the last week. Irvin was solid last year for OAK so it should be just a matter of time before he straightens himself out at the MLB level with Baltimore.
KC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Nick Pratto, Bobby Witt
GPP Note: Team ISO of .155 against LHPs.
BAL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Gunnar Henderson, Aaron Hicks
GPP Note: Team ISO of .165 against RHPs.
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Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Angels (-155)
Pitchers:
Mariners – Bryan Woo
Angels – Patrick Sandoval
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9.5. Woo looked horrendous during his MLB debut so I have some worries about this match-up but I also wouldn’t be shocked by a correction and a much better performance. LHBs did all the damage against him last time out. Sandoval is steady and while the Mariners, on paper, appear to be a tough match-up, they haven’t been that dangerous offense this season.
SEA 5-star plays: Ty France
4-star plays: Dylan Moore, Julio Rodriguez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .149 against LHPs.
LAA 5-star plays: Shohei Ohtani
4-star plays: Jared Walsh, Mickey Moniak
GPP Note: Team ISO of .173 against RHPs.
Arizona Diamondbacks (-135) @ Detroit Tigers
Pitchers:
Diamondbacks – Ryne Nelson
Tigers – Matthew Boyd
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. I always look to stack ARI with their dynamic upside. They have a mixture of power and speed that can lead to strong fantasy performances. Boyd is a guy that I think could cause problems but this feels like a spot where I want exposure to both. Nelson isn’t overly exciting so while I think that DET is atrocious offensively, I just don’t know if he has the upside we are trying to uncover.
ARI 5-star plays: Ketel Marte
4-star plays: Christian Walker, Corbin Carroll
GPP Note: Team ISO of .158 against LHPs.
DET 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: NONE
GPP Note: Team ISO of .113 against RHPs.
Boston Red Sox @ New York Yankees (-125)
Pitchers:
Red Sox – Tanner Houck
Yankees – Domingo German
Rundown:
This game opened with a total of 8.5. What does it say about me or about these two teams when I am wanting to target the SPs in this match-up? Do I believe either offense could go off and put up 8? Yeah, I definitely do but the spot just feels like the most likely outcome is a strong performance from both SPs. I don’t find myself saying this very often but I just don’t have a great feel for either of these teams right now.
BOS 5-star plays: Alex Verdugo
4-star plays: Rafael Devers
GPP Note: Team ISO of just .170 against RHPs.
NYY 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jake Bauers, Anthony Rizzo
GPP Note: Team ISO of .188 against RHPs.
Los Angeles Dodgers @ Philadelphia Phillies (EVEN)
Pitchers:
Dodgers – Bobby Miller
Phillies – Aaron Nola
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. I do like the pitching match-up in this game a bit but I am not using Nola against the Dodgers. I have softened some on my Nola stance but he hasn’t been elite this season and I don’t think he ends up the season as an elite arm. Miller has looked the part of a top pitching prospect. I know the Phillies offer a dangerous opponent but they aren’t scoring a ton of runs at the moment. I wouldn’t mind some game stacks but I will have some Miller exposure.
LAD 5-star plays: Mookie Betts
4-star plays: David Peralta, Freddie Freeman
GPP Note: Team ISO of .205 against RHPs.
PHI 5-star plays: Kyle Schwarber
4-star plays: Nick Castellanos
GPP Note: Team ISO of .151 against RHPs.
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Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves (-190)
Pitchers:
Nationals – Mackenzie Gore
Braves – Jared Shuster
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 10. I want to believe that Shuster will put up a solid-strong performance against this Washington squad but he struggled with them early this season and his walk issues have popped back up over his last couple of starts. I rarely want to pick on ATL but Gore has beaten them this season so maybe he has what it takes. We won’t be stacking WSH but I will definitely have some ATL exposure.
WSH 5-star plays: Lane Thomas
4-star plays: Stone Garrett
GPP Note: Team ISO of .138 against LHPs.
ATL 5-star plays: Ozzie Albies
4-star plays: Austin Riley
GPP Note: Team ISO of .243 against LHPs.
Cincinnati Reds @ St Louis Cardinals (-170)
Pitchers:
Reds – Andrew Abbott
Cardinals – Miles Mikolas
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. Mikolas has been really solid and it pains me to admit that. I know the Reds hold a soft spot in my heart but this feels like another solid Mikolas spot. I do think that the Reds are dangerous enough to be in your stacking pool. Abbott looked strong in his debut but that was against a weak MIL lineup. STL has a few guys who can crush LHPs so I think we see a bit of a rough spot for Abbott.
CIN 5-star plays: Elly De La Cruz
4-star plays: Matt McLain, Jonathan India
GPP Note: Team ISO of .137 against RHPs.
STL 5-star plays: Nolan Arenado
4-star plays: Tommy Edman, Paul Goldschmidt
GPP Note: Team ISO of .170 against LHPs.
New York Mets (-130) @ Pittsburgh Pirates
Pitchers:
Mets – Kodai Senga
Pirates – Johan Oviedo
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. I could see this game ending up 4-3 or 12-8. Senga has been pretty damn bad on the road but he flashes dominant stuff, even against elite teams (Pit isn’t elite). Oviedo could be decent but I don’t think we need to consider him. I know the Mets’ lineup has gotten super weak without Alonso in the middle but there’s still some dangerous power in it. Hayes has flipped a switch on and is absolutely rolling at the plate over the last 6 games.
NYM 5-star plays: Francisco Alvarez
4-star plays: Francisco Lindor
GPP Note: Team ISO of .155 against RHPs.
PIT 5-star plays: Ke’Bryan Hayes
4-star plays: Jack Suwinski
GPP Note: Team ISO of .165 against RHPs.
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Houston Astros @ Cleveland Guardians (-135)
Pitchers:
Astros – JP France
Guardians – Tristan McKenzie
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. I think this game is more about the pitching than hitting but we do get hitting weather in CLE for the first time this week. Houston being without Yordan really opens up McKenzie as one of my favorite options today. France’s splits put him into play because he has been strong against LHBs and I expect CLE to be LH heavy. Ramirez is rolling at the plate over the last couple and when he gets hot, we ride him for a week.
HOU 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jose Altuve
GPP Note: Team ISO of .142 against RHPs.
CLE 5-star plays: Jose Ramirez
4-star plays: Josh Naylor
GPP Note: Team ISO of .120 against RHPs.
San Diego Padres (-135) @ Colorado Rockies
Pitchers:
Padres – Ryan Weathers
Rockies – Kyle Freeland
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 12. I want to believe that the Padres are going to smack Freeland around after they put up some runs last night. With that being said, this SD offense has been an enigma all season long. I don’t think very highly of Weathers but this COL offense is pretty damn weak, especially being without Bryant and Cron. Grichuk is a really intriguing one-off option in Coors while the Padres should be one of the top stacks.
SD 5-star plays: Fernando Tatis Jr, Gary Sanchez
4-star plays: Ha-Seong Kim, Manny Machado
GPP Note: Team ISO of .196 against LHPs.
COL 5-star plays: Randal Grichuk
4-star plays: Jurickson Profar
GPP Note: Team ISO of .130 against LHPs.
Texas Rangers @ Tampa Bay Rays (-115)
Pitchers:
Rangers – Nathan Eovaldi
Rays – Taj Bradley
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. We get the 2 top scoring teams in all of baseball facing off with 2 very interesting SPs on the mound. Eovaldi has been absolutely spectacular for the Rangers and is in the discussion for Cy front runner. Bradley has been exciting as a rookie but he’s been more prone to mistakes (as you’d expect). The big thing with Bradley is that it’s the RHBs with power that have done the damage.
TEX 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Marcus Semien, Adolis Garcia
GPP Note: Team ISO of .186 against RHPs.
TB 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Wander Franco, Luke Raley
GPP Note: Team ISO of .202 against RHPs.
Chicago Cubs @ San Francisco Giants (-145)
Pitchers:
Cubs – Kyle Hendricks
Giants – John Brebbia/Jakob Junis
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. If this game was in Wrigley, I would be all about the offenses even with the Cubs scuffling a bit. A few of the Giants bats are very interesting but I hate stacking in this ballpark, during night games. Wade has been extremely strong for weeks at this point and grades out pretty damn well against Hendricks. I could see either Conforto or Pederson going deep tonight.
CHC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Dansby Swanson, Seiya Suzuki
GPP Note: Team ISO of .140 against RHPs.
SF 5-star plays: Lamonte Wade
4-star plays: Michael Conforto
GPP Note: Team ISO of .181 against RHPs.
Stacks of the Day: Main Slate
- San Diego Padres
- Arizona Diamondbacks
- St Louis Cardinals
MLB Dinger of the Day – Fernando Tatis Jr, Padres
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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