Full Slate Breakdown for MLB DFS 5/9:
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My Take on a Consistent MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start an MLB slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target, but gives you a holistic look at the slate as well. Breaking down pitching also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the MLB Carnage Report this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the three pitchers that jumped out to me at first glance, good or bad.
- Lucas Giolito
- Shohei Ohtani
- Logan Webb
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San Diego Padres @ Minnesota Twins (-115)
Pitchers:
Padres – Michael Wacha
Twins – Louie Varland
Rundown:
This game opened with a total of 9. There is some weather around Minnesota this evening, so we will have to stay on top of the status. The Twins’ offense is extremely cold right now so that might make Wacha an option for us, even if it feels wrong. Varland has been somewhat impressive but the issue is that he’s allowed 4 HRs already this season and all 4 have come to RHBs, which isn’t ideal against Tatis and Manny.
SD 5-star plays: Fernando Tatis Jr
4-star plays: Juan Soto
GPP Note: Team ISO of .157 against RHPs.
MIN 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Max Kepler, Christian Vazquez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .170 against RHPs.
Chicago White Sox (-155) @ Kansas City Royals
Pitchers:
White Sox – Lucas Giolito
Royals – Jordan Lyles
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9.5. Interesting game total considering Giolito has thrown the ball exceptionally well. I still dislike Giolito but I was on him last start, finally, and plan to be on him again in this one. There is some weather expected to be around KC tonight so that’s going to be on my mind. Perez has crushed Giolito in the past so he’s going to carry some ownership while Witt has all the upside in the world.
CWS 5-star plays: Gavin Sheets
4-star plays: Andrew Vaughn, Yasmani Grandal
GPP Note: Team ISO of .141 against RHPs.
KC 5-star plays: Salvador Perez
4-star plays: Bobby Witt, Nick Pratto
GPP Note: Team ISO of .141 against RHPs.
Houston Astros @ Los Angeles Angels (-135)
Pitchers:
Astros – Framber Valdez
Angels – Shohei Ohtani
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. Great pitching match-up tonight as Ohtani gets a struggling HOU offense and Valdez is always steady for us. I generally like LAA against LHPs but this might not be the spot to go heavy. Rendon and Ward have had success against Valdez while not many on the HOU side have had any against Ohtani. The annoying part about stacking LAA when Ohtani pitches is that their offense could, conceivably, come from him at the plate as well.
HOU 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Alex Bregman
GPP Note: Team ISO of .116 against RHPs.
LAA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Anthony Rendon, Taylor Ward
GPP Note: Team ISO of .155 against LHPs.
Tampa Bay Rays (-125) @ Baltimore Orioles
Pitchers:
Rays – Zach Eflin
Orioles – Grayson Rodriguez
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. I’m a big Grayson Rodriguez guy but this just isn’t the spot. TB’s offense is just too dangerous for a guy that has had hiccups at the MLB level so far. Eflin has thrown the ball extremely well so he’s intriguing but the Orioles offense has some pop. Baltimore has been striking out quite a bit recently but they are still averaging over 5.5 runs per game across their last 7.
TB 5-star plays: Yandy Diaz
4-star plays: Wander Franco, Randy Arozarena
GPP Note: Team ISO of .237 against RHPs.
BAL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Anthony Santander, Ramon Urias
GPP Note: Team ISO of .155 against RHPs.
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Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies (-135)
Pitchers:
Blue Jays – Alek Manoah
Phillies – Aaron Nola
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. If Vlad Jr is said to be 100% good to go, he will make the list below as he’s been swinging it really well of late. The guys below, for TOR, have either been hot or have hit Nola pretty hard in previous match-ups. This is a match-up of 2 SPs that I have been fading all season long and I am going to do it today, as well. I know this game isn’t on the main slate but in turbo contests, I will be doing my best to use neither guy.
TOR 5-star plays: Daulton Varsho
4-star plays: Brandon Belt, Whit Merrifield
GPP Note: Team ISO of .167 against RHPs.
PHI 5-star plays: Bryce Harper
4-star plays: Kyle Schwarber, Trea Turner
GPP Note: Team ISO of .163 against RHPs.
Washington Nationals @ San Francisco Giants (-240)
Pitchers:
Nationals – Patrick Corbin
Giants – Logan Webb
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. The Nationals lack power against RHPs but that didn’t stop them from coming out and singling DeSclafani to death in the first inning, Monday night. Davis and Conforto have combined to go 21 for 68 with 9 HRs against Corbin in their careers. I would say those are some pretty impressive BvP numbers. Can we trust the Giants to get to Corbin tonight? I am not sure. This SF team has been really soft against LHPs so far this season.
WSH 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Keibert Ruiz, Luis Garcia
GPP Note: Team ISO of .096 against RHPs.
SF 5-star plays: JD Davis, Austin Slater
4-star plays: Michael Conforto
GPP Note: Team ISO of .125 against LHPs.
St Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs (-130)
Pitchers:
Cardinals – Jack Flaherty
Cubs – Jameson Taillon
Rundown:
This game opened with a total of 8. Weather at Wrigley is still in the pitcher’s favor but what do we do when those pitchers are a sucking ass Flaherty against a not-stretched out Taillon? I really have no idea at this point. Do we close our eyes and get exposure to Flaherty? I lean towards no at this point but ask me again at about 4 pm today. Taillon isn’t stretched out and Flaherty has been crushed by LHBs so far in 2023.
STL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Paul Goldschmidt, Willson Contreras
GPP Note: Team ISO of just .154 against RHPs.
CHC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Cody Bellinger, Ian Happ
GPP Note: Team ISO of .143 against RHPs.
Boston Red Sox @ Atlanta Braves (-190)
Pitchers:
Red Sox – Nick Pivetta
Braves – Charlie Morton
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9.5. I can’t believe I am recommending Marcell Ozuna in 2023 but the dude has been spanking the baseball over the last week. Rocking an OPS of 1.255 to go with an insane ISO of .522. I think we see this game go over the total tonight as each team has a route to doing damage against the opposing SP. I love the way that the Boston RHBs have been swinging it. Atlanta could hit 4-5 HRs tonight and I wouldn’t be shocked, at all.
BOS 5-star plays: Masataka Yoshida
4-star plays: Alex Verdugo, Jarren Duran
GPP Note: Team ISO of .163 against RHPs.
ATL 5-star plays: Austin Riley
4-star plays: Ozzie Albies, Marcell Ozuna
GPP Note: Team ISO of .185 against RHPs.
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Texas Rangers @ Seattle Mariners (-165)
Pitchers:
Rangers – Andrew Heaney
Mariners – George Kirby
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. I just can’t get on the Heaney bandwagon this season. I feel like everybody is chasing that start against KC and they are just going to be disappointed when they realize he isn’t that guy. Kirby could follow up Gilbert’s strong start with his own as a strong home favorite. Texas can put up runs quickly so there is definitely volatility but he has been solid and kept the ball in the park. His K numbers haven’t really been there so that’s the main hang-up for me.
TEX 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Nathaniel Lowe, Marcus Semien
GPP Note: Team ISO of .184 against RHPs.
SEA 5-star plays: Teoscar Hernandez
4-star plays: Jose Caballero, Ty France
GPP Note: Team ISO of .152 against LHPs.
Colorado Rockies @ Pittsburgh Pirates (-170)
Pitchers:
Rockies – Connor Seabold
Pirates – Luis Ortiz
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. Ortiz looked promising in 2022 despite his walk issues. His overall numbers were really intriguing so it’s nice to see him get a shot in 2023. He has been really strong in AAA to begin 2023 so I think there’s some upside in him today. The Pirates’ offense has cooled off considerably but LHBs have given Seabold a ton of problems so far. Could we see Reynolds and Suwinksi wake up a bit in this spot? I wouldn’t be shocked.
COL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Kris Bryant, Randal Grichuk
GPP Note: Team ISO of .138 against RHPs.
PIT 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Bryan Reynolds, Jack Suwinksi
GPP Note: Team ISO of .173 against RHPs.
New York Mets (-205) @ Cincinnati Reds
Pitchers:
Mets – Max Scherzer
Reds – Luke Weaver
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 10. Weaver has been smacked around by just about everybody, despite flashing plus K ability. The Mets aren’t exactly lighting the world on fire right now but the game has such an aggressive game total. Scherzer hasn’t looked right (obviously) but I have a hard time wanting to pick on him with the weak Reds lineup. I know a few of the CIN bats have been swinging it well but a majority of them aren’t.
NYM 5-star plays: Pete Alonso
4-star plays: Starling Marte, Brandon Nimmo
GPP Note: Team ISO of .136 against RHPs.
CIN 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jonathan India, TJ Friedl
GPP Note: Team ISO of .126 against RHPs.
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Detroit Tigers @ Cleveland Guardians (-205)
Pitchers:
Tigers – Michael Lorenzen
Guardians – Shane Bieber
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. Bieber hasn’t been elite this season but he also hasn’t been Cease-like bad. I think he’s a perfectly fine and solid option but where is his K upside? Despite CLE lacking any kind of power upside, Lorenzen has managed to allow 3 HRs to the roster in less than 50 PAs against him. The issue I have is that CLE is nearly WSH BAAAAD when it comes to power against RHPs this season.
DET 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Riley Greene
GPP Note: Team ISO of .123 against LHPs.
CLE 5-star plays: Jose Ramirez
4-star plays: Josh Bell
GPP Note: Team ISO of .100 against RHPs.
Oakland Athletics @ New York Yankees (-250)
Pitchers:
A’s – Drew Rucinski
Yankees – Clarke Schmidt
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. After looking at the numbers, I’m not sure that Rucinski is capable of getting a LHB out at this point. That’s not a great thing to have going on in this stadium Speaking of LHBs in this stadium, may I introduce you to JJ Bleday, probably hitting 5th, against an SP who’s giving up HRs to LHBs like they are candy. Speaking of which, I could use some candy.
OAK 5-star plays: JJ Bleday
4-star plays: Ryan Noda, Esteury Ruiz
GPP Note: Team ISO of .142 against RHPs.
NYY 5-star plays: Anthony Rizzo
4-star plays: Jake Bauers, Oswaldo Cabrera
GPP Note: Team ISO of .159 against RHPs.
Miami Marlins @ Arizona Diamondbacks (-115)
Pitchers:
Marlins – Jesus Luzardo
D’Backs – Brandon Pfaadt
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. I am a little shocked at the 9 total as Luzardo is a pretty solid LHP while Pfaadt is a top-50 or so MLB prospect with a live arm. I realize he was pretty bad in his MLB debut but that came against a red-hot TEX lineup. The Marlins are not the Texas Rangers at this point. I don’t have him listed below but I hope Gurriel returns to the ARI lineup as he has been red-hot of late.
MIA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Luis Arraez, Jesus Sanchez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .122 against RHPs.
ARI 5-star plays: Ketel Marte
4-star plays: Christian Walker, Evan Longoria
GPP Note: Team ISO of .155 against LHPs.
Los Angeles Dodgers (-120) @ Milwaukee Brewers
Pitchers:
Dodgers – Noah Syndergaard
Brewers – Eric Lauer
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9.5. I am honestly very shocked to see the Dodgers as favorites in this game. It’s really weird to see the success that some of the LH LAD bats have had against Lauer in previous match-ups. I am interested in some of the MIL bats that could provide some SB upside against Noah since he dislikes holding runners close (teams are 9 for 9 against him this season). Taylor just keeps mashing LHPs with power.
LAD 5-star plays: Chris Taylor
4-star plays: Max Muncy, Freddie Freeman
GPP Note: Team ISO of .183 against LHPs.
MIL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Christian Yelich, Brice Turang
GPP Note: Team ISO of .156 against RHPs.
Stacks of the Day: Main Slate
- Atlanta Braves
- New York Yankees
- Boston Red Sox
MLB Dinger of the Day – JJ Bleday, A’s
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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