Hello again everybody, and welcome to today’s MLB Full Count breakdown! I’m nilly and I run the carnage report and DraftKings tiers tools. I also coach NASCAR, so be sure to check us out every weekend over there, too. It’s Monday, and we have a few early games followed by an 8-game main slate. There’s a lot to cover, so let’s get to it!
A look at pitchers
We get an easy cash game option on the main slate, as Gallen will take on the Marlins with heavy Vegas support. For tournaments there are a handful of others with some nice KSCORE upside, such as Gilbert and Brown. On the other hand, we have quite a few with high SIERAs and implied totals against them, so we’ll want to avoid those landmines. As always be sure to check out the coach’s notes page to see who they are most interested in.
Early games
Detroit Tigers at Cleveland Guardians
We’ll kick things off with the Tigers and Guardians, with Wentz and Bibee on the mound. Vegas starts us off with a 7.5 total, with the advantage given to the home team. For the most part this seems pretty straight forward, though there are some potential weather concerns here, so be on alert.
Tigers 5 star plays – none
Tigers 3.5 star plays – McKinstry, Maton
GPP note – Some of these bats are hitting righties well, but there’s not much to love here aside from a one-off or mini-stack.
Guardians 4.5 star plays – Bell/Ramirez, Rosario
Guardians 3.5 star plays – Gimenez
GPP note – Wentz allows plenty of power to both sides of the plate, so don’t be afraid to run some lower-owned lefties here.
Tampa Bay Rays at Baltimore Orioles
Next up we have the Rays and Orioles, with McClanahan and Gibson to square off. We move all the way up to an 8.0 total, which does seem a little low, though we have some decent pitching here. I don’t know that it’ll be enough to slow down these offenses entirely, but we’ll see how they respond.
Rays 5 star plays – Franco, Arozarena
Rays 4 star plays – Lowe, Diaz/Ramirez
GPP note – Gibson is allowing lots to lefties, so those will be easy targets. Grab some righties for their power upside for some late-inning bashing.
Orioles 5 star plays – none
Orioles 3.5 star plays – Santander/Rutschman, Mullins
GPP note – Tough matchup, so you can either roll out some contrarian stacks blindly or run a few strategic righties against McClanahan, as he is allowing some power to them.
Colorado Rockies at Pittsburgh Pirates
We’ll round out the early games with the Rockies and Pirates, with Freeland and Keller as the starters. Another 8.0 total, I can’t help but feel like Vegas is being a little conservative here too, so I think I like the over for this and the previous game.
Rockies 4 star plays – Blackmon/McMahon, Bryant
Rockies 3.5 star plays – Diaz/Cron
GPP note – Keller is allowing good power to lefties and moderate xwOBA to righties, so you can mix and match the hands in any Colorado stacks you may run.
Pirates 4.5 star plays – Reynlds/McCutchen, Hayes
Pirates 4 star plays – Santana/Joe
GPP note – No surprises here: Freeland allows plenty to righties, so have at it.
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Main slate
Oakland Athletics at New York Yankees
Switching over to the main slate, we’ll start with the Athletics and Yankees. We’ll have Sears and Cortes as the starters here, along with an 8.5 total. Most of that is being given to the home team, which should be no surprise, as this is another game that looks straight forward. If nothing else, at least those Oakland bats are cheap!
Athletics 5 star plays – none
Athletics 3.5 star plays – Rooker/Aguilar
GPP note – Though this isn’t a great spot to go, Cortes does allow some good contact and power to righties, so some contrarian mini-stacks could be useful.
Yankees 4.5 star plays – Torres, Rizzo
Yankees 3.5 star plays – LeMahieu, Cabrera
GPP note – Sears allows tons to righties, so you can throw any of them at him with this solid 5+ implied total.
St Louis Cardinals at Chicago Cubs
We’ll start a rivalry series next, as the Cardinals visit the Cubs. Mikolas and Stroman will get the nod here, as well as a slate-low 7.0 total. I think a lot of that will depend on Mikolas and how he performs, as he can be quite random at times. Stroman is certainly more likely to keep the other offense pinned down for a while, though he probably won’t do it with double-digit strikeouts or anything of the sort.
Cardinals 4.5 star plays – Goldschmidt
Cardinals 3.5 star plays – Nootbaar/Gorman, Arenado/Edman
GPP note – Aside from his bad outing against the Dodgers, Stroman has been stingy and isn’t a great target to attack. You can go here, but be mindful of the limited upside.
Cubs 4.5 star plays – Bellinger/Happ
Cubs 3.5 star plays – Wisdom//Suzuki
GPP note – Mikolas remains a solid target to attack, as he’s allowing plenty of contact and power to both sides of the plate along with a below average strikeout rate.
Los Angeles Dodgers at Milwaukee Brewers
Next up we have the Dodgers and Brewers, with Gonsolin and Peralta on the hill. We get an 8.5 total split down the middle for this one, which does seem fair since both teams have a few advantages they can make use of. It will be nice for us if they do, though unfortunately you do have to pay up to get a whole lot of exposure to them.
Dodgers 5 star plays – Freeman, Betts
Dodgers 4 star plays – Muncy
GPP note – Peralta allows some good power to lefties, so it’s the lefties with the advantage here.
Brewers 4 star plays – Yelich/Tellez
Brewers 3.5 star plays – Adames/Anderson/Winker
GPP note – Gonsolin isn’t allowing much power, but he does have a lot of allowed xwOBA to both sides of the plate. Run some stacks here in case that xwOBA translates into ISO.
Chicago White Sox at Kansas City Royals
Moving up, our next game will be between the White Sox and my Royals. Cease and Greinke will get the start here, along with another 8.5 total. Vegas has this one set a bit closer than I would have expected, as I would trust Cease to have a stronger outing than Greinke right now. Perhaps I’m wrong (or perhaps I’m trying some reverse psychology), but I’d be a bit surprised if this one ends up being this close.
White Sox 4 star plays – Anderson, Robert/Vaughn
White Sox 3.5 star plays – Sheets
GPP note – Greinke remains a good target to attack with the good contact and power he allows to both sides, as well as a low strikeout rate. Be sure not to tunnel vision the lefties – grab some righties along the way, too.
Royals 4 star plays – Pasquantino
Royals 3.5 star plays – Perez/Witt/Olivares
GPP note – It’s not a great matchup against Cease, though he does allow some decent contact to righties as well as some power to lefties.
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Houston Astros at Los Angeles Angels
We’ll head out west to begin the second half of the main slate, starting with the Astros and Angels. Brown and Sandoval get the start here, along with a slate-best 9.0 total. Brown has looked tough, so it’ll be interesting to see how he does in this test against two of the best hitters in the game. Sandoval may not be expensive, but he’s holding his own as well, so I wonder if this game may see the under. If Brown can limit the damage to Trout and Ohtani while holding down the rest, I could see that happening.
Astros 5 star plays – Alvarez
Astros 4 star plays – Bregman/Pena, McCormick, Maldonado
GPP note – Sandoval is another arm that’s not allowing much power, but is allowing a lot of xwOBA to lefties, so consider running some of those against him with any righties you take.
Angels 5 star plays – Ohtani, Trout
Angels 4 star plays – Renfroe, Thaiss
GPP note – Brown has looked mostly good and hasn’t yet shown a hand weakness, so we’ll see how he handles the two big guns here.
Texas Rangers at Seattle Mariners
Next up we have Gray and the Rangers set to take on Gilbert and the Mariners. An 8.0 total, Vegas is giving a modest advantage to the home team for this one. I think I would have to agree with them, as they do have the better matchup, though it’s not a huge advantage on paper. I do think that there’s a good chance of this one seeing the over, especially if either starter slips up.
Rangers 4 star plays – Semien/Garcia
Rangers 3.5 star plays – Lowe/Heim
GPP note – This isn’t a great matchup, but some of these righties are hitting right-handed pitching well, so you can try some mini-stacks with them.
Mariners 4.5 star plays – Rodriguez
Mariners 4 star plays – Kelenic/Raleigh, Crawford
GPP note – Traditional splits work best against Gray, so stick to the righties and Rodriguez.
Miami Marlins at Arizona Diamondbacks
Our next game will feature Garret and Gallen, as the Marlins take on the Diamondbacks. An 8.0 total, Gallen and Co are the favorites here, which should be of no surprise. This game is another one that looks straight forward, and them going over or under may just depend on how awake the Arizona offense is.
Marlins 5 star plays – none
Marlins 3.5 star plays – Chisholm/Arraez, Soler
GPP note – Yikes.
Diamondbacks 4 star plays – Marte
Diamondbacks 3.5 star plays – Walker
GPP note – Garrett allows good power and contact to righties and very little to lefties, so it’s another spot for the traditional splits bats.
Washington Nationals at San Francisco Giants
We’ll wrap up the day with the Nationals and Giants, as Irvin and DeSclafani look to duel. An 8.5 total, the home team is the heavy favorite here, and they boast a high total matched only by the Yankees. The advantage for us is that these bats are cheaper, making it easier to stack them. Will you go with the late-night hammer or take the early bird special? Or perhaps both?
Nationals 4.5 star plays – Garcia
Nationals 4 star plays – Candelario, Ruiz, Meneses
GPP note – DeSclafani is allowing good power to righties, so we finally have a decent spot for some reverse splits options.
Giants 4 star plays – Wade/Estrada
Giants 3.5 star plays – Pederson, Davis/Conforto
GPP note – Irvin is allowing some power to lefties which is nice, but a lot of these bats are smashing righties for power, which is really nice.
And that’s going to do it for this one. Thanks for joining me, and be sure to check out the coach’s notes page to see who they are most interested in. Best of luck today!
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