Full Slate Breakdown for MLB DFS 5/7:
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My Take on a Consistent MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start an MLB slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target, but gives you a holistic look at the slate as well. Breaking down pitching also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the MLB Carnage Report this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the three pitchers that jumped out to me at first glance, good or bad.
- Mason Miller
- Sandy Alcantara (pending wind at Wrigley)
- Gerrit Cole
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Minnesota Twins (-130) @ Cleveland Guardians
Pitchers:
Twins – Joe Ryan
Guardians – Cal Quantrill
Rundown:
This game opened with a total of 8. Ryan has been dominant to begin the 2023 season while Quantrill has not been. I actually thought the Twins would be -150 or higher given how well the Twins bats have fared against Quantrill. I am very much interested in the Twins as a stack based on their BvP history but I do think they might sit Buxton/Correa as they try to get them additional rest any chance they get.
MIN 5-star plays: Alex Kirilloff
4-star plays: Carlos Correa, Jose Miranda
GPP Note: Team ISO of .173 against RHPs.
CLE 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Steven Kwan
GPP Note: Team ISO of .103 against RHPs.
Oakland Athletics @ Kansas City Royals (EVEN)
Pitchers:
Athletics – Mason Miller
Royals – Ryan Yarbrough
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9.5. Yarbrough has had a rough season so far as he has allowed 17 runs in just 20.2 innings, with 11 of those runs coming at home. Miller has an electric arm so he’s a curious GPP option but the game has a high total yet again. Miller’s K upside is the main draw right now. I think we can get away with some OAK stacks today which is surprising for me to say because I generally don’t want to stack bad teams.
OAK 5-star plays: Esteury Ruiz
4-star plays: Brent Rooker, Ramon Laureano
GPP Note: Team ISO of .164 against LHPs.
KC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Vinnie Pasquantino, Nick Pratto
GPP Note: Team ISO of .141 against RHPs.
Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels (-125)
Pitchers:
Rangers – Martin Perez
Angels – Jose Suarez
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9.5. The Rangers get to face yet another LHP and this one is the weakest of the 3, could we see double-digit runs? I know Suarez is coming off of a strong outing but he was ass prior to that. Perez is a guy that can limit damage but man it’s hard to not like the Angels with the power they possess against LHPs (historically). Guys like Renfroe and Drury can absolutely crush LHPs.
TEX 5-star plays: Josh Jung
4-star plays: Adolis Garcia, Marcus Semien
GPP Note: Team ISO of .156 against LHPs.
LAA 5-star plays: Mike Trout
4-star plays: Gio Urshela, Taylor Ward
GPP Note: Team ISO of .158 against LHPs.
New York Yankees (-120) @ Tampa Bay Rays
Pitchers:
Yankees – Gerrit Cole
Rays – Josh Fleming (Long-Reliever)
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. What an interesting spot we have here. Cole, who is arguably the best pitcher in baseball, against the team that has destroyed basically every pitcher they have faced and are rocking ridiculous ISOs over a month into the season. I come from the age of “great pitching beats great hitting” so I will be siding with Cole. I know it’s a dangerous spot so I will mix in some TB stacks but it won’t be too many. Bader feels like a sneaky upside play from the Yankees and I kind of like it.
NYY 5-star plays: Harrison Bader
4-star plays: Gleyber Torres
GPP Note: Team ISO of .124 against LHPs.
TB 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Yandy Diaz, Harold Ramirez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .241 against RHPs.
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Boston Red Sox @ Philadelphia Phillies (-125)
Pitchers:
Red Sox – Tanner Houck
Phillies – Taijuan Walker
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9.5. Walker has given up 6 HRs over his last 3 starts and while he’s mostly a reverse splits guy, the LHBs have been getting him for power and walks so far in 2023. Houck has always intrigued me but with how he has been this season, I just can’t get there against this PHI offense. Harper has returned from Tommy John surgery in roughly 12 hours and just picked up hitting like there wasn’t an offseason.
BOS 5-star plays: Masataka Yoshida
4-star plays: Justin Turner, Jarren Duran
GPP Note: Team ISO of .195 against RHPs.
PHI 5-star plays: Bryce Harper
4-star plays: Kyle Schwarber, Brandon Marsh
GPP Note: Team ISO of .168 against RHPs.
Milwaukee Brewers @ San Francisco Giants (-140)
Pitchers:
Brewers – Adrian Houser
Giants – Ross Stripling
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. Houser made 4 rehab starts in the minors and had built up to 5 innings of work. He hasn’t had a ton of K success but his extreme groundball rate has been there. I honestly don’t know if he’s viable but the Brewers need him at this point. Stripling gives up power to RHBs but LHBs have been better overall at the plate. The Brewers are struggling quite a bit so it’s an interesting spot for him.
MIL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Rowdy Tellez, Christian Yelich
GPP Note: Team ISO of .153 against RHPs.
SF 5-star plays: Lamonte Wade
4-star plays: JD Davis
GPP Note: Team ISO of .219 against RHPs.
Miami Marlins (-120) @ Chicago Cubs
Pitchers:
Marlins – Sandy Alcantara
Cubs – Hayden Wesneski
Rundown:
This game opened with a total of 7. I love seeing a low total in Wrigley once in awhile and we happen to get it when Alcantara is on the mound. He hasn’t looked like a Cy Young guy but that could change today. Wesneski hasn’t shown the K ability he did last season so it’s a bit frustrating. With that being said, he gets a plus match-up against a very punch less MIA lineup. I do like Jesus Sanchez as a GPP dart play.
MIA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Luis Arraez, Jesus Sanchez
GPP Note: Team ISO of just .124 against RHPs.
CHC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Ian Happ, Cody Bellinger
GPP Note: Team ISO of .152 against RHPs.
Baltimore Orioles @ Atlanta Braves (-165)
Pitchers:
Orioles – Tyler Wells
Braves – Bryce Elder
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. This Sunday’s stand-a-lone early game is one that I wish was on the main slate. Both of these teams have guys we are almost ALWAYS rostering in our builds. Elder has been impressive this season as he has really been strong against LHBs. Despite giving up 7 HRs so far this season, Wells has thrown the ball exceptionally well. He has held opposing hitters to a .171 average and a .573 OPS.
BAL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jorge Mateo, Anthony Santander
GPP Note: Team ISO of .163 against RHPs.
ATL 5-star plays: Ronald Acuna Jr
4-star plays: Ozzie Albies
GPP Note: Team ISO of .189 against RHPs.
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Houston Astros @ Seattle Mariners (-130)
Pitchers:
Astros – Brandon Bielak
Mariners – Bryce Miller
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. It’s crazy to see a rookie pitcher, making his 2nd career start, as a favorite against Houston. Miller was ridiculously dominate in his debut but we do have to realize that came against OAK. I love the upside and the Astros haven’t been all that dangerous against RHPs so far in 2023. Bielak looked pretty good stepping in for Luis Garcia and has had some starts at the MLB level before. I think he has upside but the SEA offense looked like it came alive late last night and those situations can carry over to the next game to build momentum.
HOU 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jeremy Pena, Yordan Alvarez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .121 against RHPs.
SEA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jose Caballero, Julio Rodriguez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .151 against RHPs.
Toronto Blue Jays (-135) @ Pittsburgh Pirates
Pitchers:
Blue Jays – Yusei Kikuchi
Pirates – Roansy Contreras
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. At the MLB level, most of Contreras’ troubles have come against RHBs and that doesn’t feel like a good thing against TOR. With that being said, he’s been solid this season but he hasn’t been electric just yet. Carlos Santana is 11 for 26 against LHPs so far this season. Connor Joe has 11 hits against LHPs with 7 of those going for extra-bases plus 7 walks. Pittsburgh might be an interesting mini-stack but overall, I think they continue to regress after their hot start.
TOR 5-star plays: Bo Bichette
4-star plays: Daulton Varsho, Vlad Guerrero
GPP Note: Team ISO of .159 against RHPs.
PIT 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Connor Joe, Carlos Santana
GPP Note: Team ISO of .173 against LHPs.
Colorado Rockies @ New York Mets (-205)
Pitchers:
Rockies – Ryan Feltner
Mets – Joey Lucchesi
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. I think a lot of people will blindly plug in Lucchesi and that feels like a mistake to me. I know the Rockies aren’t a great team but they do have a few guys that have historically crushed LHPs and he’s just not that great. He hasn’t been good over his last 2 starts after a ridiculously dominant 2023 debut. The Mets need to wake up at some point and Alonso does have an HR off of Feltner.
COL 5-star plays: Kris Bryant
4-star plays: Randal Grichuk, CJ Cron
GPP Note: Team ISO of .130 against LHPs.
NYM 5-star plays: Pete Alonso
4-star plays: Brett Baty
GPP Note: Team ISO of .135 against RHPs.
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Detroit Tigers @ St Louis Cardinals (-195)
Pitchers:
Tigers – Alex Faedo
Cardinals – Steven Matz
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9.5. Faedo hasn’t been good at the MLB level but he’s been solid at AAA so far this season. Matz is a guy that has the stuff to be dominant but he makes way too many mistakes. The Tigers offense has been decent during their winning streak and Baez grades out really well in this match-up. I think the Cardinals are knocking on the door of waking up as we see some life before they go dormant for multiple innings.
DET 5-star plays: Javy Baez
4-star plays: Jake Rogers
GPP Note: Team ISO of .147 against LHPs.
STL 5-star plays: Lars Nootbar
4-star plays: Nolan Gorman (DTD), Willson Contreras
GPP Note: Team ISO of .151 against RHPs.
Chicago White Sox @ Cincinnati Reds (-125)
Pitchers:
White Sox – Michael Kopech
Reds – Graham Ashcraft
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9.5. Ashcraft has been very reverse splits heavy this season but my big question has been where are his strikeouts? I think he has the stuff to put up a 9.5+ K/9 but he’s far behind that right now. He has been really good at home so far in 2023, which is a bit shocking considering his home ballpark. Kopech finally put things together in his last start, minus the 5 walks. He has a couple of great starts this season but he also has 4 really bad ones.
CWS 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Luis Robert
GPP Note: Team ISO of .135 against RHPs.
CIN 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jonathan India, TJ Friedl
GPP Note: Team ISO of .113 against RHPs.
Washington Nationals @ Arizona Diamondbacks (-165)
Pitchers:
Nationals – Trevor Williams
D’Backs – Ryne Nelson
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. I really wish this game was on the main slate after it was an explosive match-up last night. I really like the way that Arizona lines up against Williams. Neither SP is interesting to me, which sucks because we know that the WSH offense isn’t overly dangerous. Corbin Carroll is one of my favorite players in all of baseball due to his upside and the fact that he goes overlooked is a bonus.
WSH 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Lane Thomas, Luis Garcia
GPP Note: Team ISO of .097 against RHPs.
ARI 5-star plays: Corbin Carroll
4-star plays: Christian Walker, Ketel Marte
GPP Note: Team ISO of .173 against RHPs.
Los Angeles Dodgers @ San Diego Padres (EVEN)
Pitchers:
Dodgers – Julio Urias
Padres – Joe Musgrove
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. A classic Sunday Night match-up with a rivalry game among the MLB’s top teams. The Dodgers have hit Musgrove pretty damn well in their careers with a combined slash line of .307/.373/.488 across 184 PAs. I always love Urias, no matter who he is facing but the Padres can get to him with some power (mainly Machado). Tatis hasn’t fared very well against Urias but he’s swinging it confidently, especially against LHPs right now.
LAD 5-star plays: Freddie Freeman
4-star plays: David Peralta, Mookie Betts
GPP Note: Team ISO of .230 against RHPs.
SD 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Manny Machado, Fernando Tatis
GPP Note: Team ISO of .179 against LHPs.
Stacks of the Day: Main Slate
- Minnesota Twins
- Philadelphia Phillies
- Boston Red Sox
MLB Dinger of the Day – Bryce Harper, Phillies
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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