Full Slate Breakdown for MLB DFS 5/6:
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My Take on a Consistent MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start an MLB slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target, but gives you a holistic look at the slate as well. Breaking down pitching also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the MLB Carnage Report this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the three pitchers that jumped out to me at first glance, good or bad.
- Logan Allen
- Spencer Strider
- Tylor Megill
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Minnesota Twins (-115) @ Cleveland Guardians
Pitchers:
Twins – Sonny Gray
Guardians – Logan Allen
Rundown:
This game opened with a total of 7.5. Allen has been pretty impressive in both of his MLB starts while Gray has absolutely been rolling to begin the 2023 season. We know two things coming into this one, first is that the Twins are striking out a shit ton on the season. The second thing is that the Guardians don’t have a ton of pop in their lineup. A few of the Guardians’ bats have had success against Gray so there’s some worry but damn he’s been so strong.
MIN 5-star plays: Jorge Polanco
4-star plays: Byron Buxton
GPP Note: Team ISO of .165 against LHPs.
CLE 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Josh Naylor, Steven Kwan
GPP Note: Team ISO of .106 against RHPs.
Oakland Athletics @ Kansas City Royals (-140)
Pitchers:
Athletics – Ken Waldichuk
Royals – Brady Singer
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 10. Singer has been ridiculously bad in 4 of his 6 starts this season and the A’s just pounded the Royals staff Friday night. Waldichuk has allowed 10 HRs in 31 innings of work this season, with 6 of those coming in 14.2 road innings. As much as it makes me cringe (even though they won me a GPP Thursday), lock and load the Royals bats in your GPP builds!
OAK 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Brent Rooker, Ramon Laureano
GPP Note: Team ISO of .132 against RHPs.
KC 5-star plays: Salvador Perez
4-star plays: Bobby Witt, Edward Olivares
GPP Note: Team ISO of .170 against LHPs.
Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels (-120)
Pitchers:
Rangers – Nathan Eovaldi
Angels – Reid Detmers
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. Eovaldi has definitely outperformed Detmers this season but that’s not saying a whole lot as they both have had some troubles. Detmers has gotten a little unlucky in the games that I’ve watched. Eovaldi can rack up Ks too but he can have rough innings. This game is one of those ones where I could see a 4-2 final or a 9-7, back and forth battle. I do think Texas comes back down to earth some offensively but that doesn’t mean it’s today.
TEX 5-star plays: Josh Jung
4-star plays: Adolis Garcia, Marcus Semien
GPP Note: Team ISO of .171 against LHPs.
LAA 5-star plays: Mike Trout
4-star plays: Shohei Ohtani
GPP Note: Team ISO of .167 against RHPs.
New York Yankees @ Tampa Bay Rays (-190)
Pitchers:
Yankees – Domingo German
Rays – Drew Rasmussen
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. Based on the Vegas information, we should be interested in both SPs. I am not sure I can get behind German but he has flashed random upside this season. Rasmussen hasn’t been sharp in 3 of his last 4 starts so that’s a bit worrisome but he gets the weakened version of the Yankees lineup, so maybe he fixes himself in this spot. German has had a couple of impressive starts but he’s also had 3 starts where he’s given up 2+ HRs. That kind of volatility isn’t ideal when facing this TB offense right now.
NYY 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Anthony Rizzo, Gleyber Torres
GPP Note: Team ISO of .164 against RHPs.
TB 5-star plays: Yandy Diaz
4-star plays: Wander Franco
GPP Note: Team ISO of .242 against RHPs.
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Boston Red Sox @ Philadelphia Phillies (-145)
Pitchers:
Red Sox – Corey Kluber
Phillies – Bailey Falter
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9.5. I am very intrigued by the struggling Phillies offense. This could be a spot for Harper to announce his return with some pop while Schwarber could finally wake up. Falter isn’t somebody that excites me all that much but maybe against BOS he becomes a dart shot option? I most likely will just be fading the SPs from this game since we are looking at a strong total. Yoshida has no problem hitting in LvL match-ups and he’s been rolling over the last 2 weeks.
BOS 5-star plays: Masataka Yoshida
4-star plays: Justin Turner
GPP Note: Team ISO of .163 against RHPs.
PHI 5-star plays: Bryce Harper
4-star plays: Kyle Schwarber, Brandon Marsh
GPP Note: Team ISO of .170 against RHPs.
Milwaukee Brewers @ San Francisco Giants (-170)
Pitchers:
Brewers – Collin Rea
Giants – Alex Cobb
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. I normally love Cobb and while I may get there in this spot, I don’t necessarily know if I want to pick on the Brewers (though they are ice cold). Cobb has allowed a lot more contact at home this season. Rea just isn’t a guy we should be putting our money into at this point. He gives up more hits to RHBs but more power to LHBs and the Giants have PLENTY of LHBs that can get to him with power.
MIL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Brice Turang, Rowdy Tellez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .161 against RHPs.
SF 5-star plays: Lamonte Wade
4-star plays: Joc Pederson, Thairo Estrada
GPP Note: Team ISO of .223 against RHPs.
Miami Marlins @ Chicago Cubs (-178)
Pitchers:
Marlins – Bryan Hoeing
Cubs – Drew Smyly
Rundown:
This game opened with a total of 9.5. Smyly is somebody that probably should be played but I never feel overly confident in his ability. Hoeing isn’t anything special, by any means, so the Cubs become interesting for us. He has been hit harder by RHBs at the MLB level. The wind is blowing out to LF in Wrigley so things line up really well for the Cubs bats, along with a guy like Jorge Soler against an LHP.
MIA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jorge Soler, Jon Berti
GPP Note: Team ISO of just .137 against LHPs.
CHC 5-star plays: Dansby Swanson
4-star plays: Patrick Wisdom, Seiya Suzuki
GPP Note: Team ISO of .155 against RHPs.
Baltimore Orioles @ Atlanta Braves (-250)
Pitchers:
Orioles – Kyle Bradish
Braves – Spencer Strider
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. Strider and the Braves are massive favorites against Bradish. I can’t get over the upside that Strider offers us at home, no matter who is stepping in the box against him. Bradish flashes great stuff but he also gets hit, hard. It will be really interesting to see which version of him shows up today. Over the course of his MLB career, Bradish has been hit hardest by RHBs.
BAL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Adley Rutschman, Anthony Santander
GPP Note: Team ISO of .165 against RHPs.
ATL 5-star plays: Ronald Acuna Jr
4-star plays: Sean Murphy, Austin Riley
GPP Note: Team ISO of .191 against RHPs.
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Houston Astros @ Seattle Mariners (-115)
Pitchers:
Astros – JP France
Mariners – Marco Gonzales
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. France is a 28 year old who is making his MLB debut. With that said, he isn’t some pushover guy just making an organizational depth start. He has 447 career strikeouts in the minors, in just 362.1 innings of work. Despite pitching in the PCL the last year+, he has been really strong but he has topped out at just 5 innings so far this season. The Astros have some guys with strong history against Gonzales, so it feels like a rough spot for him.
HOU 5-star plays: Yordan Alvarez
4-star plays: Jeremy Pena, Kyle Tucker
GPP Note: Team ISO of .161 against LHPs.
SEA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Kolten Wong
GPP Note: Team ISO of .154 against RHPs.
Toronto Blue Jays (-135) @ Pittsburgh Pirates
Pitchers:
Blue Jays – Jose Berrios
Pirates – Johan Oviedo
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. On the surface, I really want to double-down on my Pirates aren’t that good take and have Berrios shove on them in this spot. The issue I have is that Berrios probably doesn’t shove because we have no idea which version shows up. I think the Blue Jays can get to Oviedo but I have said that before and Oviedo has proven me wrong against less talented teams.
TOR 5-star plays: Bo Bichette
4-star plays: Daulton Varsho
GPP Note: Team ISO of .161 against RHPs.
PIT 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Bryan Reynolds, Carlos Santana
GPP Note: Team ISO of .176 against RHPs.
Colorado Rockies @ New York Mets (-235)
Pitchers:
Rockies – Austin Gomber
Mets – Tylor Megill
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. The Mets have been quite a bit better when facing LHPs so this isn’t a great spot for Gomber, in that regard. On the other hand, Gomber gets to face them while they are struggling mightily at the plate. Feels like a spot that could go either way for the Mets offense. Megill hasn’t been great to begin the season but I really like the match-up so I probably end up overweight on the early slate of not so great pitching options.
COL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Randal Grichuk, CJ Cron
GPP Note: Team ISO of .140 against RHPs.
NYM 5-star plays: Pete Alonso
4-star plays: Francisco Lindor
GPP Note: Team ISO of .172 against LHPs.
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Detroit Tigers @ St Louis Cardinals (-205)
Pitchers:
Tigers – Spencer Turnbull
Cardinals – Adam Wainwright
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. I really wish Wainwright wouldn’t have been lit up during his minor league rehab. He did strike out 9 in his last start, which went 5.2 innings on April 30th so maybe he’s trending in the right direction. Turnbull is a guy that’s capable of being steady but I’ve lost so much money on the Cardinals’ bats that I feel like I have to keep trying to get the stack correct (pot committed at this point).
DET 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Javy Baez, Riley Greene
GPP Note: Team ISO of .124 against RHPs.
STL 5-star plays: Nolan Gorman (DTD)
4-star plays: Paul Goldschmidt
GPP Note: Team ISO of .149 against RHPs.
Chicago White Sox @ Cincinnati Reds (-125)
Pitchers:
White Sox – Mike Clevinger
Reds – Nick Lodolo
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. I personally think that Clevinger is a shitty human being so I enjoy it any time he gets lit up on the mound. He has given up 5 HRs over his last 3 starts and that’s not a great trend coming into this park. Lodolo has ridiculous stuff and K upside but he’s been giving up a TON of HRs to RHBs so far this season. I might have to make Luis Robert my Dinger of the Day.
CWS 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Eloy Jimenez, Luis Robert
GPP Note: Team ISO of .157 against LHPs.
CIN 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Nick Senzel, TJ Friedl
GPP Note: Team ISO of .109 against RHPs.
Washington Nationals @ Arizona Diamondbacks (-145)
Pitchers:
Nationals – Mackenzie Gore
D’Backs – Tommy Henry
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9.5. Gore reminds me of Blake Snell to a degree. Ridiculous stuff and ability but the walks are a pain in the ass. He’s young and will continue to get better. The interesting thing for me is that he has been absolutely dominant against RHBs, it’s the LHBs that have given him a TON of problems (OPS of 1.397). Henry isn’t very good but the WSH offense isn’t very good. Who wins in that scenario?
WSH 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Lane Thomas, Alex Call
GPP Note: Team ISO of .116 against LHPs.
ARI 5-star plays: Corbin Carroll
4-star plays: Christian Walker
GPP Note: Team ISO of .155 against LHPs.
Los Angeles Dodgers @ San Diego Padres (-115)
Pitchers:
Dodgers – Dustin May
Padres – Blake Snell
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. We get a match-up of 2 SPs that should be doing so much better than they actually are. Both guys have elite level stuff but one guy can’t strike people out with that stuff (May) and the other can’t control it enough to pitch deep (Snell). Tatis was electric last night but he hasn’t fared very well against May. I will still use him as I like riding superstars when they start hitting HRs.
LAD 5-star plays: Freddie Freeman
4-star plays: Austin Barnes
GPP Note: Team ISO of .174 against LHPs.
SD 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Manny Machado, Fernando Tatis
GPP Note: Team ISO of .163 against RHPs.
Stacks of the Day: Main Slate
- Atlanta Braves
- Texas Rangers
- Houston Astros
MLB Dinger of the Day – Luis Robert, White Sox
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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