Full Slate Breakdown for MLB DFS 5/5:
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My Take on a Consistent MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start an MLB slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target, but gives you a holistic look at the slate as well. Breaking down pitching also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the MLB Carnage Report this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the three pitchers that jumped out to me at first glance, good or bad.
- Kodai Senga
- Jordan Montgomery
- Corbin Burnes
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Minnesota Twins (-125) @ Cleveland Guardians
Pitchers:
Twins – Bailey Ober
Guardians – Peyton Battenfield
Rundown:
This game opened with a total of 8.5. It’s tough to consider much from the Guardians these days. The team is decent at baseball but they aren’t very fantasy friendly. They are rocking a team ISO of .086 over the last week. Ober is interesting but the Guardians aren’t a big K team at this point. Buxton is heating up and RHBs have hit Battenfield better than LHBs but the power he has allowed has been to LHBs so far.
MIN 5-star plays: Byron Buxton
4-star plays: Max Kepler
GPP Note: Team ISO of .176 against RHPs.
CLE 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jose Ramirez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .106 against RHPs.
Oakland Athletics @ Kansas City Royals (-155)
Pitchers:
Athletics – Kyle Muller
Royals – Brad Keller
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9.5. It’s really tough seeing a 9.5 run total between these two offenses. Neither team is very good and I say that after KC won me a bunch of money last night. Keller hasn’t been sharp as his BBs have skyrocketed of late so that’s worrisome, even against a weak offense. Muller has flashed great outings but has been bad in more than half of his outings so far this season. Just an overall blah game to have to consider.
OAK 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Brent Rooker
GPP Note: Team ISO of .132 against RHPs.
KC 5-star plays: Salvador Perez
4-star plays: Bobby Witt, Edward Olivares
GPP Note: Team ISO of .170 against LHPs.
Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels
Pitchers:
Rangers – Dane Dunning
Angels – Tyler Anderson
Rundown:
The line for this game hasn’t been posted as I assume it’s pending the official SP announcement by Texas. Dunning would be moving from the bullpen into the rotation and probably be a bit limited in his first start of 2023. Anderson hasn’t been great for the Angels but could be sneaky. The Angels bats have had some solid success against Dunning so there’s some sneaky upside, especially if they get to him because of the weak arms that could follow if Texas is losing.
TEX 5-star plays: Jonah Heim
4-star plays: Adolis Garcia
GPP Note: Team ISO of .171 against LHPs.
LAA 5-star plays: Mike Trout
4-star plays: Taylor Ward, Anthony Rendon
GPP Note: Team ISO of .167 against RHPs.
New York Yankees @ Tampa Bay Rays (-190)
Pitchers:
Yankees – Jhony Brito
Rays – Yonny Chirinos
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. Chirinos has been filthy so far this season and he’s in the process of being stretched out. I would guess he’s in the 75-80 pitch range and that might be enough against this NYY lineup. Brito has been dominant against LHBs but has struggled mightily against RHBs. The Rays offense is crushing RHPs something fierce to begin the season so we definitely need to have them at the top.
NYY 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: DJ LeMahieu
GPP Note: Team ISO of .164 against RHPs.
TB 5-star plays: Yandy Diaz
4-star plays: Harold Ramirez, Christian Bethancourt
GPP Note: Team ISO of .242 against RHPs.
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Boston Red Sox @ Philadelphia Phillies (-160)
Pitchers:
Red Sox – Chris Sale
Phillies – Zack Wheeler
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. This one is really tough for me because the Red Sox LHBs have been absolutely rolling over the last week to ten days and Wheeler has had some struggles with LHBs so far in 2023. Sale has been really bad on the road but most of the PHI lineup has struggled against LHPs this season. I feel like I am going to end up opposite of what Vegas thinks in this game and that scares me. They didn’t build all those massive buildings by being wrong.
BOS 5-star plays: Masataka Yoshida
4-star plays: Justin Turner, Jarren Duran
GPP Note: Team ISO of .202 against RHPs.
PHI 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Edmundo Sosa, Nick Castellanos
GPP Note: Team ISO of .160 against LHPs.
Milwaukee Brewers (-120) @ San Francisco Giants
Pitchers:
Brewers – Corbin Burnes
Giants – Sean Manaea
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. Oh man, what a situation we have here. Manaea has been booty while the Brewers have been this week and have been much of the season against LHPs. What the hell are we going to do with this spot? I do know that I will be on the Corbin Burnes train for GPP upside. Maybe his strikeout numbers re-appear tonight. A lot of the SF numbers are inflated due to that 2 game series in Mexico City where bunts traveled 488 feet to center field.
MIL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Joey Wiemer, Tyrone Taylor
GPP Note: Team ISO of .125 against LHPs.
SF 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Joc Pederson, Thairo Estrada
GPP Note: Team ISO of .223 against RHPs.
Miami Marlins @ Chicago Cubs (-170)
Pitchers:
Marlins – Edward Cabrera
Cubs – Justin Steele
Rundown:
This game opened with a total of 9. Cabrera just struck out 12 Cubs batters the last time out but he did walk 5. Walks have been a huge issue this season and it’s annoying because I really like his upside. Steele has been my guy all season long and I am not going to abandon that stance against the Marlins. The weather is decent for hitting at Wrigley today so that’s going to frustrate me but the Marlins aren’t a great offense.
MIA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jorge Soler, Garrett Hampson
GPP Note: Team ISO of just .137 against LHPs.
CHC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Patrick Wisdom, Nico Hoerner
GPP Note: Team ISO of .155 against RHPs.
Baltimore Orioles @ Atlanta Braves (-210)
Pitchers:
Orioles – Dean Kremer
Braves – Max Fried
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. Traditionally Fried had been a reverse splits guy but that hasn’t been the case this season. That gives me a little concern in this spot because BAL has a few RHBs that love facing LHPs. The Braves bats should be in a spot to absolutely feast tonight against Kremer. The big question will be the status of Ronald Acuna Jr after he left yesterday’s game after fouling a ball off of his knee.
BAL 5-star plays: Adley Rutschman
4-star plays: Jorge Mateo, Ryan Mountcastle
GPP Note: Team ISO of .185 against LHPs.
ATL 5-star plays: Matt Olson
4-star plays: Ozzie Albies, Eddie Rosario
GPP Note: Team ISO of .191 against RHPs.
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Houston Astros @ Seattle Mariners (-135)
Pitchers:
Astros – Cristian Javier
Mariners – Luis Castillo
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7. I love this game from a baseball fan perspective. We could see a pretty impressive pitcher’s duel as both offenses have had their struggles. Castillo is a better SP than Javier overall but I do think the Houston offense is SLIGHTLY more dangerous right this second. I envision myself having quite a bit of exposure to both SPs in this one with very little stacking in this game.
HOU 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Yordan Alvarez, Kyle Tucker
GPP Note: Team ISO of .114 against RHPs.
SEA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Cal Raleigh
GPP Note: Team ISO of .159 against RHPs.
Toronto Blue Jays (-140) @ Pittsburgh Pirates
Pitchers:
Blue Jays – Chris Bassitt
Pirates – Rich Hill
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. I can’t believe how low the TOR team ISO is against LHPs. It’s something that just doesn’t make sense to me and would expect it to increase as the season chugs along. Hill has actually been pretty solid this season but there’s regression coming. He started the season out giving up some HRs but hasn’t allowed any in his last 2 starts. That changes tonight. Bassitt has been so jekyll/hyde that I just don’t know what to expect at this point.
TOR 5-star plays: Matt Chapman
4-star plays: Bo Bichette, George Springer
GPP Note: Team ISO of .118 against LHPs.
PIT 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Bryan Reynolds, Carlos Santana
GPP Note: Team ISO of .181 against RHPs.
Colorado Rockies @ New York Mets (-240)
Pitchers:
Rockies – Antonio Senzatela
Mets – Kodai Senga
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. Senga feels like a dirty option but the Rockies aren’t very good and they are coming out of playing at home. This is one of the best spots for Senga so far, so I have to be on-board even if it scares the shit out of me. Senzatela making his return from the IL but the Mets have hit him well in their careers, even if they are struggling right now. This feels like a spot for them to wake up at this point.
COL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Charlie Blackmon
GPP Note: Team ISO of .140 against RHPs.
NYM 5-star plays: Pete Alonso
4-star plays: Starling Marte
GPP Note: Team ISO of .137 against RHPs.
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Detroit Tigers @ St Louis Cardinals (-225)
Pitchers:
Tigers – Matthew Boyd
Cardinals – Jordan Montgomery
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. My gut says that the Cardinals continue a bit of a wake-up and put up 6+ tonight against the LHP. I like Boyd but I just don’t like him against the top half of this STL lineup. At some point their bats have to wake up and explode, especially against an LHP. Montgomery feels like a great upside play tonight as we generally can get away with picking on DET bats. I realize they made Scherzer and Verlander look washed up but that’s not going to happen very often for this squad.
DET 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Javy Baez, Eric Haase
GPP Note: Team ISO of .144 against LHPs.
STL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Tommy Edman, Willson Contreras
GPP Note: Team ISO of .165 against LHPs.
Chicago White Sox @ Cincinnati Reds (EVEN)
Pitchers:
White Sox – Lance Lynn
Reds – Hunter Greene
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. Greene is always on my list because of his huge K upside and the White Sox aren’t the best of offenses. He obviously has HR issues and that’s scary considering it’s mostly RHBs that do damage to him. Lynn has been atrocious this season and he’s allowing a TON of HRs. That’s not a good thing to have happen considering this ballpark is built for HRs to happen.
CWS 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Eloy Jimenez, Luis Robert
GPP Note: Team ISO of .135 against RHPs.
CIN 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Nick Senzel, Jake Fraley
GPP Note: Team ISO of .108 against RHPs.
Washington Nationals @ Arizona Diamondbacks (-190)
Pitchers:
Nationals – Josiah Gray
D’Backs – Merrill Kelly
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. I am a little shocked to see ARI as such a strong favorite given how solid Gray has looked on the mound this season. The Nationals are just so damn weak against RHPs that it forces me to raise my ownership of Kelly. The D’Backs bats have been pretty strong recently and we know that Gray has had HR issues in the past (allowed just 4 so far in 2023). He’s been reverse splits this season so maybe Christian Walker should be a 5-Star.
WSH 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: CJ Abrams, Keibert Ruiz
GPP Note: Team ISO of .094 against RHPs.
ARI 5-star plays: Ketel Marte
4-star plays: Christian Walker
GPP Note: Team ISO of .170 against RHPs.
Los Angeles Dodgers (-115) @ San Diego Padres
Pitchers:
Dodgers – Clayton Kershaw
Padres – Yu Darvish
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. Another great pitching match-up but between two guys that I think are a bit too expensive (on DK). I know either of them could win us all sorts of money tonight but I did mention in the video that I am fading one of them. Both rosters have hit double-digit HRs against the opposing SP but it’s the Dodgers roster that I think is in the better spot right now. Should be a great game to watch.
LAD 5-star plays: Freddie Freeman
4-star plays: David Peralta, Mookie Betts
GPP Note: Team ISO of .235 against RHPs.
SD 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Manny Machado, Fernando Tatis
GPP Note: Team ISO of .165 against RHPs.
Stacks of the Day: Main Slate
- Atlanta Braves
- New York Mets
- St Louis Cardinals
MLB Dinger of the Day – Matt Olson, Braves
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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