Full Slate Breakdown for MLB DFS 5/4:
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My Take on a Consistent MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start an MLB slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target, but gives you a holistic look at the slate as well. Breaking down pitching also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the MLB Carnage Report this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the three pitchers that jumped out to me at first glance, good or bad.
- Grayson Rodriguez
- George Kirby
- Kevin Gausman
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Minnesota Twins (-135) @ Chicago White Sox
Pitchers:
Twins – Pablo Lopez
White Sox – Lucas Giolito
Rundown:
This game opened with a total of 8. The current Twins roster has 8 career HRs against Giolito and I would expect all 8 of those to be in the lineup. They haven’t hit Giolito all that well overall but the power upside is there. Lopez started out the season so damn well but has really struggled the last 2. He dominated against the White Sox earlier and as a fan, I am really hoping he gets back to figuring it out. Not really a game that I want bat exposure despite my disdain for Giolito.
MIN 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Byron Buxton, Max Kepler
GPP Note: Team ISO of .176 against RHPs.
CWS 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Eloy Jimenez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .135 against RHPs.
Seattle Mariners (-225) @ Oakland Athletics
Pitchers:
Mariners – George Kirby
Athletics – Drew Rucinski
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. What a performance by the rookie Millers on Tuesday night, in this match-up. Kirby should be a fairly popular option. The Seattle lineup really needs to wake up at this point but they also need J-Rod to be 100% going forward. Kirby has been stronger than Gilbert and Gilbert was very good last night. Rucisnki was knocked around by the Reds in his first start and that doesn’t bode well for this one as he had just 1 K while allowing 11 hits in 5.2 innings.
SEA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jared Kelenic, Cal Raleigh
GPP Note: Team ISO of .157 against RHPs.
OAK 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Shea Langeliers
GPP Note: Team ISO of .131 against RHPs.
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Milwaukee Brewers (-145) @ Colorado Rockies
Pitchers:
Brewers – Wade Miley
Rockies – Connor Seabold
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 12. The Brewers have a team ISO of .079 over the last week. That’s what happens when you have 1 HR and just 12 runs scored over the last 5 games. Are they going to wake up today? Honestly, I am not sure at this point but they should. The Rockies line up well against Miley but it seems like every time I stack against him, I get kicked in the nuts. Will that stop me from doing it again? Not a chance in hell.
MIL 5-star plays: Rowdy Tellez
4-star plays: Christian Yelich
GPP Note: Team ISO of .153 against RHPs.
COL 5-star plays: Kris Bryant
4-star plays: Charlie Blackmon, Jurickson Profar
GPP Note: Team ISO of .134 against LHPs.
Chicago Cubs (-220) @ Washington Nationals
Pitchers:
Cubs – Jameson Taillon
Nationals – Patrick Corbin
Rundown:
This game opened with a total of 9. Taillon will be returning from the IL today so there is a bit of a concern for me. He looked great in his last start, prior to hitting the IL. The match-up is very intriguing for us as WSH has a pretty low IRT. The Cubs have hit LHPs really well and now they get to face the ghost of Patrick Corbin. To be fair, Corbin hasn’t been as atrocious this season but he hasn’t been great either. He has allowed 3 HRs over his last 2 starts and he has allowed 43 hits in 31.1 innings so far.
CHC 5-star plays: Patrick Wisdom
4-star plays: Dansby Swanson, Nico Hoerner
GPP Note: Team ISO of .204 against LHPs.
WSH 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: CJ Abrams
GPP Note: Team ISO of just .089 against RHPs.
Baltimore Orioles (-170) @ Kansas City Royals
Pitchers:
Orioles – Grayson Rodriguez
Royals – Jordan Lyles
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9.5. The Royals have a higher IRT than I would have thought so Vegas expects Gray Rod to have some struggles. I am on the side of him not struggling and building off of his last start. Lyles has been worse than Patrick Corbin so far in 2023 as he has allowed 7 HRs over his last 3 starts and has given up 4+ runs in 5 straight starts. The Orioles let us down against Greinke last night, they can’t do it to us again…can they?
BAL 5-star plays: Adley Rutschman
4-star plays: Jorge Mateo, Anthony Santander
GPP Note: Team ISO of .155 against RHPs.
KC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Nick Pratto, Vinnie Pasquantino
GPP Note: Team ISO of .127 against RHPs.
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Pittsburgh Pirates @ Tampa Bay Rays (-195)
Pitchers:
Pirates – Vince Velasquez
Rays – Zach Eflin
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. The Rays continue to crush RHPs and I have no idea when they are going to slow down at this point. I mean, we know they are going to slow down but will it be gradually or will they hit a proverbial wall? Eflin has been solid for TB but they appear to be babying him so I would expect him to stick around the 80 pitch mark. Velasquez has been overachieving (theme of the Pirates).
PIT 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Bryan Reynolds
GPP Note: Team ISO of .186 against RHPs.
TB 5-star plays: Randy Arozarena
4-star plays: Jose Lowe, Wander Franco
GPP Note: Team ISO of .240 against RHPs.
New York Mets (-190) @ Detroit Tigers
Pitchers:
Mets – Justin Verlander
Tigers – Eduardo Rodriguez
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. It’s going to be really tough to remove yesterday from our minds but we have to do that. The Tigers smacked around Lucchesi and Scherzer in the double header. Verlander made just 1 rehab start, throwing 69 (nice) pitches. I would expect him to be limited to around 80-85 today as they shouldn’t have any reason to push him after a shoulder issue popped up at the end of Spring Training. E-Rod has been excellent the last handful of starts so I am curious but Alonso DESTROYS LHPs.
NYM 5-star plays: Pete Alonso
4-star plays: Francisco Lindor
GPP Note: Team ISO of .182 against LHPs.
DET 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Matt Vierling
GPP Note: Team ISO of .118 against RHPs.
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Los Angeles Angels @ St Louis Cardinals (-145)
Pitchers:
Angels – Griffin Canning
Cardinals – Jack Flaherty
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. The weather in STL looks to be beautiful for day baseball action and beautiful weather tends to mean more upside for bats. Flaherty hasn’t been terrible but he hasn’t been elite either. I think he has some troubles today because he keeps making mistakes despite cutting down on the walks and increasing his Ks. Canning allows a lot of contact at this point but the Cardinals are cold overall, what gives? I actually think we see a bit of a wake-up from the Cardinals’ bats.
LAA 5-star plays: Mike Trout, Shohei Ohtani
4-star plays: Anthony Rendon
GPP Note: Team ISO of .170 against RHPs.
STL 5-star plays: Nolan Gorman
4-star plays: Paul Goldschmidt
GPP Note: Team ISO of .148 against RHPs.
Atlanta Braves (EVEN) @ Miami Marlins
Pitchers:
Braves – Dylan Dodd
Marlins – Jesus Luzardo
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. This Atlanta squad does serious damage to LHPs. I am a big Luzardo fan, I have him in multiple dynasty leagues but this just doesn’t feel like the spot. Dodd was solid in his first start and then was lit up by the Padres. This Marlins squad isn’t the same as the Padres so maybe he’s going to be just fine but he’s not somebody I trust a whole lot, especially with Miami projected over 4 runs.
ATL 5-star plays: Ronald Acuna
4-star plays: Ozzie Albies, Austin Riley
GPP Note: Team ISO of .234 against LHPs.
MIA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jorge Soler
GPP Note: Team ISO of .137 against LHPs.
Toronto Blue Jays (-165) @ Boston Red Sox
Pitchers:
Blue Jays – Kevin Gausman
Red Sox – Brayan Bello
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. The Toronto roster is a combined 20 for 45 against Bello. 16 of those hits have been singles so that’s a little shocking. Bello hasn’t been terrible the last couple of starts but he isn’t generating a ton of strikeouts and he throws a lot of pitches early. Gausman has been absolutely spectacular to far this season so I have to believe he keeps it up. The issue is that the Boston LHBs have been rolling over the last week to ten days.
TOR 5-star plays: Bo Bichette, George Springer
4-star plays: Vlad Guerrero Jr
GPP Note: Team ISO of .163 against RHPs.
BOS 5-star plays: Jarren Duran
4-star plays: Justin Turner, Masataka Yoshida
GPP Note: Team ISO of .199 against RHPs.
Stacks of the Day: Main Slate
- Baltimore Orioles
- Colorado Rockies
- St Louis Cardinals (going off the wall a bit here)
MLB Dinger of the Day – Kris Bryant, Rockies
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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