Full Slate Breakdown for MLB DFS 5/3:
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My Take on a Consistent MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start an MLB slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target, but gives you a holistic look at the slate as well. Breaking down pitching also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the MLB Carnage Report this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the three pitchers that jumped out to me at first glance, good or bad.
- Framber Valdez
- Marcus Stroman
- Dylan Cease
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Minnesota Twins @ Chicago White Sox (-130)
Pitchers:
Twins – Louis Varland
White Sox – Dylan Cease
Rundown:
This game opened with a total of 8. Cease hasn’t been overly sharp this season but damn this feels like a great spot for his upside to appear. Varland was excellent in two starts against the White Sox last season so there’s some upside with him as well. Kepler has hit 3 HRs against Cease in just 22 PAs. Last night’s game went into extras and was 100% a pitcher’s duel. I keep waiting for Correa to wake up, should I give up?
MIN 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jorge Polanco, Max Kepler
GPP Note: Team ISO of .179 against RHPs.
CWS 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Eloy Jimenez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .138 against RHPs.
Seattle Mariners (-170) @ Oakland Athletics
Pitchers:
Mariners – Logan Gilbert
Athletics – JP Sears
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. What a performance by the rookie Millers on Tuesday night, in this match-up. I don’t expect the same kind of pitchers duel as Sears isn’t the same as Mason Miller. Gilbert should be a fairly popular option. The Seattle lineup really needs to wake up at this point but they also need J-Rod to be 100% going forward. They might have to start hitting Kelenic 3rd against LHPs as well.
SEA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Teoscar Hernandez, Julio Rodriguez (DTD)
GPP Note: Team ISO of .163 against LHPs.
OAK 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Shea Langeliers
GPP Note: Team ISO of .136 against RHPs.
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Texas Rangers (-125)
Pitchers:
D’Backs – Brandon Pfaadt
Rangers – Andrew Heaney
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. We are getting some of the top pitching prospects at the MLB level and Pfaadt is yet another one making his debut. He doesn’t get a cupcake style match-up so we probably have to temper our expectations. The Rangers offense keeps doing damage as they beat up Gallen a bit on Tuesday night. Heaney is super volatile and generally a guy that I am not overly interested in but there is K upside in his arm.
ARI 5-star plays: Ketel Marte
4-star plays: Christian Walker
GPP Note: Team ISO of .141 against LHPs.
TEX 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Adolis Garcia
GPP Note: Team ISO of .187 against RHPs.
Cleveland Guardians (-145) @ New York Yankees
Pitchers:
Guardians – Shane Bieber
Yankees – Clarke Schmidt
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. I was going to say that this game could move to 7 but Bieber hasn’t been great to begin the 2023 season. I don’t really like Schmidt all that much but we know the CLE lineup lacks power overall. They also lack a lot of swing and miss so Ks are generally limited. Gleyber has hit Bieber pretty well in previous meetings and the Yankees absolutely need he, Rizzo, LeMahieu, and Bader to wake up while everybody else is hurt.
CLE 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jose Ramirez, Amed Rosario
GPP Note: Team ISO of .114 against RHPs.
NYY 5-star plays: Gleyber Torres
4-star plays: Anthony Rizzo
GPP Note: Team ISO of .161 against RHPs.
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Philadelphia Phillies @ Los Angeles Dodgers
Pitchers:
Phillies – Aaron Nola
Dodgers – Gavin Stone
Rundown:
Waiting on the Vegas information. It looks like Stone will be making his MLB debut, yet another top pitching prospect getting the call. His overall numbers at AAA are blah but they are bloated due to a rough first start. He hasn’t gone more than 5 innings which is a bummer but he has nasty K stuff. Nola hasn’t been sharp and this isn’t a match-up where I am suddenly going to jump on board.
PHI 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Brandon Marsh, Kyle Schwarber
GPP Note: Team ISO of .172 against RHPs.
LAD 5-star plays: Mookie Betts
4-star plays: Freddie Freeman
GPP Note: Team ISO of .231 against RHPs.
Milwaukee Brewers (-120) @ Colorado Rockies
Pitchers:
Brewers – Eric Lauer
Rockies – Kyle Freeland
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 12. Coors field wasn’t very Coors Fieldy on Tuesday night. We get a match-up of similar LHPs against offenses that haven’t hit LHPs very well to begin the 2023 season. Blackmon has crushed Lauer in their previous meetings, going 12 for 24 with 5 extra-base hits. Wiemer is leading the Brewers in ISO against LHPs but nobody ever plays him (projections always seem to hate him).
MIL 5-star plays: William Contreras
4-star plays: Joey Wiemer
GPP Note: Team ISO of .137 against LHPs.
COL 5-star plays: Kris Bryant
4-star plays: Charlie Blackmon
GPP Note: Team ISO of .122 against LHPs.
Chicago Cubs (-195) @ Washington Nationals
Pitchers:
Cubs – Marcus Stroman
Nationals – Jake Irvin
Rundown:
This game opened with a total of 9. We are a month into the season and the Nationals have a team ISO of just .090 against RHPs, that’s not good. I have mostly been off of Stroman as I expect regression but it’s impossible to expect it tonight. Irvin is another prospect making his debut but he’s not a top prospect by any means. He has struggled at the AAA level so far this season so maybe we boost the Cubs a bit.
CHC 5-star plays: Cody Bellinger
4-star plays: Patrick Wisdom
GPP Note: Team ISO of .160 against RHPs.
WSH 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Lane Thomas, Keibert Ruiz
GPP Note: Team ISO of just .090 against RHPs.
Baltimore Orioles (-160) @ Kansas City Royals
Pitchers:
Orioles – Kyle Gibson
Royals – Zack Greinke
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. It’s going to be tough to not want to go heavy on the Orioles. A handful of guys have hit Greinke well in their previous match-ups and we know what kind of upside their offense has. Gibson should carry some ownership and I can’t argue against it, especially after Perez left last night’s game. The overall KC lineup is pretty damn weak at this point but can we really expect Gibson to be a stud today?
BAL 5-star plays: Adley Rutschman, Cedric Mullins
4-star plays: Jorge Mateo, Austin Hays
GPP Note: Team ISO of .160 against RHPs.
KC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Bobby Witt Jr, Winnie Pasquantino
GPP Note: Team ISO of .121 against RHPs.
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San Francisco Giants @ Houston Astros (-165)
Pitchers:
Giants – Logan Webb
Astros – Framber Valdez
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. I haven’t been as impressed with Framber this season but I still believe in him. He gets a plus match-up as the Giants have struck out a TON against LHPs so far in 2023. I am shocked at how bad Houston has been against RHPs so far this season. They have guys that have traditionally done more damage to RHPs than LHPs. I do think it is only a matter of time before Alvarez-Tucker start destroying RHPs.
SF 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Mitch Haniger
GPP Note: Team ISO of .122 against LHPs.
HOU 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Yordan Alvarez, Jeremy Pena
GPP Note: Team ISO of .115 against RHPs.
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Tampa Bay Rays (-220)
Pitchers:
Pirates – Mitch Keller
Rays – Shane McClanahan
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7. I am in love. I am totally in love with this SP match-up. Keller finally looks like the guy that he was supposed to be coming up and we already know how I feel about McClanahan. With that being said, I do expect some regression from both offenses but mostly the Pirates. I wouldn’t be shocked if Keller has a bit of a hiccup against this TB offense, with how they are performing.
PIT 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Miguel Andujar, Connor Joe
GPP Note: Team ISO of .168 against LHPs.
TB 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jose Lowe, Wander Franco
GPP Note: Team ISO of .242 against RHPs.
New York Mets (-170) @ Detroit Tigers – Game 1
Pitchers:
Mets – Joey Lucchesi
Tigers – Joey Wentz
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. Baez is 5 for 7 with 2 HRs against Lucchesi in his career. He’s about the only guy that might go off for Detroit as they have sucked against LHPs. Alonso always hammers LHPs so he’s in play for the double-dong. We have to pay attention to posted lineups as teams can switch their SPs between games of a doubleheader. Lucchesi is definitely in play and I actually have him starting in a lot of season long leagues.
NYM 5-star plays: Pete Alonso
4-star plays: Francisco Lindor, Brandon Nimmo
GPP Note: Team ISO of .166 against LHPs.
DET 5-star plays: Javy Baez
4-star plays: Jake Rogers
GPP Note: Team ISO of .122 against LHPs.
New York Mets (-220) @ Detroit Tigers – Game 2
Pitchers:
Mets – Max Scherzer
Tigers – Michael Lorenzen
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. I know that Scherzer hasn’t exactly been Scherzer but this is Detroit and he’s coming off of a strange suspension, I expect him to come out and absolutely SHOVE as the kids like to say. Lorenzen hasn’t been great and he can be crushed by RHBs but the LHBs of the Mets can also get it done. This might be the first time I am recommending Starling Marte this season.
NYM 5-star plays: Pete Alonso
4-star plays: Starling Marte, Brandon Nimmo
GPP Note: Team ISO of .142 against RHPs.
DET 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: NONE
GPP Note: Team ISO of .114 against RHPs.
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Los Angeles Angels (-135) @ St Louis Cardinals
Pitchers:
Angels – Shohei Ohtani
Cardinals – Miles Mikolas
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. We get Ohtani against a struggling STL offense so we have to be all about him, right? He is coming off of a blah start against OAK but he should bounce back some. Mikolas has been hit hard by RHBs and that’s not a good trend coming into a meeting with the RH power of the Angels. I am going to have to jump right back on the LAA stack bandwagon after they mostly disappointed me last night.
LAA 5-star plays: Mike Trout
4-star plays: Anthony Rendon, Hunter Renfroe
GPP Note: Team ISO of .165 against RHPs.
STL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Nolan Gorman
GPP Note: Team ISO of .144 against RHPs.
Cincinnati Reds @ San Diego Padres (-278)
Pitchers:
Reds – Luis Cessa
Padres – Seth Lugo
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. This is a conundrum for me as I think that Lugo continues to come back down to earth a bit but the Reds are a really weak offense on the road (they are overall, as well). Machado, Soto, and Bogaerts have combined for 7 extra-base hits in 27 ABs against Cessa in their careers. Sign me up for that kind of success as Cessa has been dominated by everybody this season (both RH and LH bats).
CIN 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Nick Senzel
GPP Note: Team ISO of .108 against RHPs.
SD 5-star plays: Juan Soto
4-star plays: Xander Bogaerts, Manny Machado
GPP Note: Team ISO of .168 against RHPs.
Atlanta Braves (-140) @ Miami Marlins
Pitchers:
Braves – Kyle Wright
Marlins – Braxton Garrett
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. It’s going to be hard to ignore what the top of the ATL lineup can do against LHPs. Acuna is on another level right now and when you add Albies and Murphy, you get one of the best 3 man stacks of the day. Wright is getting better and better, his last start was cut short against this Miami squad but he was on his way to a great day on the mound. We know the MIA lineup is pretty weak overall so his route to success seems pretty straight forward.
ATL 5-star plays: Ronald Acuna
4-star plays: Ozzie Albies, Sean Murphy
GPP Note: Team ISO of .200 against LHPs.
MIA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Luis Arraez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .130 against RHPs.
Toronto Blue Jays (-140) @ Boston Red Sox
Pitchers:
Blue Jays – Alek Manoah
Red Sox – Nick Pivetta
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9.5. The Toronto roster has a combined OPS of .996 against Pivetta in about 160 PAs. That seems like a great number and one that we need to be targeting in our builds today/tonight. The Red Sox LHBs stand out for me as Manoah has had his issues at the MLB level with LHBs. Verdugo and Duran have been absolutely rolling of late for the BoSox and we know Devers is ALWAYS dangerous.
TOR 5-star plays: Bo Bichette, George Springer
4-star plays: Vlad Guerrero Jr, Cavan Biggio
GPP Note: Team ISO of .159 against RHPs.
BOS 5-star plays: Alex Verdugo, Jarren Duran
4-star plays: Rafael Devers, Masataka Yoshida
GPP Note: Team ISO of .205 against RHPs.
Stacks of the Day: Main Slate
- Toronto Blue Jays
- Boston Red Sox
- Baltimore Orioles
MLB Dinger of the Day – Juan Soto, Padres
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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