Hello again everybody, and welcome to today’s MLB Full Count breakdown! I’m nilly and I run the carnage report and DraftKings tiers tools. I also coach NASCAR, so be sure to check us out every weekend over there, too. We get a handful of early games followed by a 13-game main slate for this Tuesday. There’s a lot to cover, so let’s get to it!
A look at pitchers
As usual for the big slates, we have plenty of options to look at today. Quite a few of them have implied totals against them in the 3.xx range though, so finding the correct chalk for cash games may or may not be tricky, depending on what sort of tools you have at your disposal. For tournaments, however, there are plenty of pitchers with some strikeout upside: Cole, Gallen, Brown, and even Strahm have the numbers on their side, but we’ll see how that all translates once things kick off. As always be sure to check out the coach’s notes page to see who they are most interested in.
Early games
Atlanta Braves at Miami Marlins
We’ll kick things off with the Braves and Marlins, with Elder and Alcantara on the mound. A total like this isn’t the most exciting way to start the day, but there are at least plenty of other games to choose from if you don’t want to roll the dice here.
Braves 4 star plays – Acuna
Braves 3.5 star plays – Olson/Albies, Murphy
GPP note – It’s not the most fun thing to do to attack Alcantara, but he is allowing a good chunk of xwOBA to righties and several of these bats are hitting righties for power.
Marlins 4 star plays – Chisholm
Marlins 3.5 star plays – Soler/Arraez
GPP note – RvR bats are in play here too, as Elder is allowing more contact and power to righties than to lefties as of late.
Pittsburgh Pirates at Tampa Bay Rays
Next up we have the Pirates and Rays, with Contreras and Guerra/Fleming to start things off. I don’t have any insight from Vegas at this early hour, but I suspect that they will expect some fireworks from these two teams.
Pirates 4.5 star plays – McCutchen/Reynolds
Pirates 3.5 star plays – Santana/Joe
GPP note – Though not the best pitching matchup, these bats are hitting lefties well and could see some success here. Righties have the xwOBA advantage against Fleming.
Rays 5 star plays – Arozarena/Franco
Rays 4 star plays – B Lowe/Diaz
GPP note – Traditional splits are the way to go here, but for ownership purposes it would be a good idea to grab some of the hot RvR bats as well.
New York Mets at Detroit Tigers
Wrapping up the early games, we next have Lucchesi and the Mats taking on Lorenzen and the Tigers. There are possible weather concerns, so keep an eye on that, but outside of that things look pretty straight forward here.
Mets 5 star plays – lindor
Mets 4 star plays – Nimmo/McNeil, ALonso
GPP note – This is a nice spot for everyone, as Lorenzen is allowing lots of contact and power to both sides of the plate, even if he does grab a few strikeouts along the way.
Tigers 5 star plays – none
Tigers 3.5 star plays – Haase/Schoop
GPP note – Though there’s not a ton to love here, there are a few bats here that can make some noise at a steep discount.
Main slate
Chicago Cubs at Washington Nationals
We’ll switch over to the main slate now, starting with the Cubs and Nationals. We’ll see Wesneski take on Williams, along with an 8.5 total. There are a lot of inexpensive options here, which is always interesting (and potentially useful) when we have Coors and other expensive pivots to pay for. Perhaps some of these pieces will help take down a tournament tonight?
Cubs 4.5 star plays – Happ
Cubs 3.5 star plays – Wisdom/Suzuki
GPP note – Williams allows about equal contact and power to both sides of the plate and has a fairly low strikeout rate, so be sure to give the cheaper bats a look too.
Nationals 5 star plays – none
Nationals 3.5 star plays – Candelario
GPP note – Most of these bats are running a bit cold against righties, so don’t auto-stack here just because their opponent is so cheap.
Cleveland Guardians at New York Yankees
Next up we have Bibee and the Guardians set to take on Cole and the Yankees. Vegas is giving this one a 7.5 total, which is probably fair considering the matchup on one side and the injuries on the other. Will the softer New York lineup allow Bibee to shine in his second start?
Guardians 5 star plays – none
Guardians 3.5 star plays – Ramirez/Bell
GPP note – Keep an eye on the skies and throw in some contrarian stacks if you think Cole’s start might get rained out.
Yankees 4 star plays – Rizzo
Yankees 3.5 star plays – Volpe
GPP note – Bibee looked good in his debut, though it was against the Rockies in Cleveland. You could stack here as usual or consider hedging for a cheap SP2.
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Toronto Blue Jays at Boston Red Sox
Moving along we next have Kikuchi and the Blue Jays taking on Houck and the Red Sox. Vegas is giving this one a whopping 10.0 total, which makes considering we have some big bats and a couple of volatile starters in the mix. There could be some big upside here, but a lot of it will cost you some salary.
Toronto 5 star plays – Guerrero/Springer
Toronto 4 star plays – Chapman/Varsho
GPP note – Houck tends to be all over the place, so hedging here wouldn’t be a bad idea. For attacking purposes, he allows plenty of power to both sides of the plate, so bats of all flavors are in play.
Red Sox 4.5 star plays – Devers/Turner
Red Sox 3.5 star plays – Yoshida/Verdugo
GPP note – Same as above, though Kikuchi has been showing signs of consistency. He hasn’t allowed a ton of power as of late but does tend to give up at least one home run per start.
Minnesota Twins at Chicago White Sox
Ryan and the Twins will take on Kopech and the White Sox next, and Vegas has this one set at an 8.5 total. The Twins are the favorite here, which should be no surprise, as they have the upper hand all around. If Kopech keeps doing what he’s been doing, we might get a little home run derby in Chicago today.
Twins 5 star plays – Buxton/Correa
Twins 4 star plays – Kepler/Polanco, Gallo
GPP note – Kopech is a solid target as usual. He allows the about the same to either side of the plate, so once again, don’t neglect the less expensive bats.
White Sox 5 star plays – none
White Sox 3.5 star plays – Benintendi/Robert/Anderson, Burger
GPP note – Ryan allows some power to lefties, so you can have a few small contrarian stacks here with a shot at some upside.
Baltimore Orioles at Kansas City Royals
Next up we have Wells and the Orioles taking on Yarbrough and my Royals. A 9.0 total, the visitors are once again favored here, and once again that seems reasonable. The O’s are in a good spot here, and perhaps they’ll see less ownership than other teams with a similar total due to them playing at a pitcher’s ballpark.
Orioles 4.5 star plays – Rutschman/Mountcastle/Santander
Orioles 3.5 star plays – Mullins/Mateo
GPP note – It’s another spot for bats of both sides of the plate to have a good chance at a big game, and there are some more cheap bats to choose from.
Royals 4 star plays – Pasquantino
Royals 3.5 star plays – Perez/Witt
GPP note – Wells allows some power to lefties, so you can try your luck there.
Los Angeles Angels at St Louis Cardinals
We head down I-70 for our next game, this one between the Angels and Cardinals. We’ll see Sandoval and Matz as the starters here, and this game will see a 9.0 total to start with. Vegas likes the home team a little bit better here, but my gut tells me the underdog will prevail.
Angels 5 star plays – Trout/Ohtani
Angels 4 star plays – Rendon/Drury
GPP note – Matz is allowing a good chunk of contact and power to righties while also racking up a fair number of strikeouts. This could be another good place to hedge with a cheap SP2.
Cardinals 4.5 star plays – Goldschmidt
Cardinals 3.5 star plays – Edman/Arenado
GPP note – Vegas is giving this offense a solid total, but Sandoval isn’t allowing much power and gets a fair number of strikeouts. It might not be a bad idea to pivot from here if their projected ownership looks to be high.
Arizona Diamondbacks at Texas Rangers
We’ll head south for our next two games, starting with the Diamondbacks and Rangers. An 8.0 total, this game will see Gallen and Gray facing off. The visitors look to have the edge here, and even if they only score one or two runs, that might be plenty with how dominant Gallen has looked.
Diamondbacks 4 star plays – Walker/Smith
Diamondbacks 3.5 star plays – Smith/Perdomo
GPP note – Gray allows good contact and power to lefties, so some traditional splits stacks (and perhaps some wrap-arounds, too) are worth a look.
Rangers 5 star plays – none
Rangers 3.5 star plays – Lowe, Semien/Garcia
GPP note – Gallen allows some power to righties, but otherwise, contrarian stacks only.
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San Francisco Giants at Houston Astros
The Giants will take on the Astros next, with DeSclafani and Brown to get the start. Another 8.0 total, this one seems similar to the previous game, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see a snoozer from one side with some action from the other.
Giants 5 star plays – none
Giants 3.5 star plays – Pederson
GPP note – Brown can be tough and hasn’t given up but one home run all season (in spring training no less), so I can’t really recommend going after with big stacks him here.
Astros 4.5 star plays – Alvarez/Bregman
Astros 4 star plays – Tucker/Pena
GPP note – DeSclafani allows some decent power to righties, so don’t be afraid to go with some of them to go with Alvarez.
Milwaukee Brewers at Colorado Rockies
Our chalky Coors game is up next, with Peralta and the Brewers taking on Feltner and the Rockies. An 11.0 total, it’s not as enticing as many other Coors games have been, especially considering that we have a 10.0 total elsewhere on the slate. Could the pivot actually be going to Coors this time, or will people just come here anyway? It might not be a bad idea to keep a close eye on ownership projections for this one.
Brewers 5 star plays – Yelich
Brewers 4 star plays – Tellez/Winker, Adames
GPP note – Feltner allows good power to righties, so be sure to shuffle in some RvR bats to help with the Coors ownership.
Rockies 4.5 star plays – Blackmon
Rockies 4 star plays – Bryant/Cron
GPP note – Peralta allows some power to lefties, which won’t be a sneaky tactic here, so you can go with the flow or pivot somewhere else since he can hold his own.
Seattle Mariners at Oakland Athletics
We’ll head out west for our late games, starting with the Mariners and Athletics. We get a couple of Millers for this one, both of which are inexpensive and could be used for a budget SP2. As for experience, one of them has seen 8 innings this year, and the other will be making his MLB debut. I could see things going to one extreme or the other for both sides, so it wouldn’t be a bad idea to make some hedges here.
Mariners 5 star plays – Rodriguez
Mariners 4 star plays – Kelenic/Raleigh, France/Crawford
GPP note – It’s a small sample size, but Mason has shown some strikeout potential along with him allowing some power to both sides of the plate (though no home runs allowed yet). He’s another budget SP2 hedge option today.
Athletics 5 star plays – none
Athletics 3.5 star plays – Rooker/Langeliers
GPP note – Same as above, though this will be Bryce’s MLB debut. I would absolutely hedge here, as debuts have a good chance of going wild in favor of one side or the other.
Cincinnati Reds at San Diego Padres
Next up we have Ashcraft and the Reds taking on Wacha and the Padres. An 8.5 total, Vegas gives the nod to the home team, though that shouldn’t really be a shocker to anybody. However, I could see this one going under, as we do have two starters that can avoid being shelled for a good four to six innings.
Reds 5 star plays – none
Reds 3.5 star plays – India/Friedl
GPP note – The good: Wacha allows good contact and power to both sides of the plate. The bad: these guys aren’t hitting righties worth a darn. You can go contrarian here in case they wake up, but don’t bet the house on it.
Padres 5 star plays – Soto
Padres 4 star plays – Machado/Tatis, Carpenter/Bogaerts
GPP note – Nobody needs to tell you to stack these bats, but since they will be a popular Coors pivot and Ashcraft is stingy about allowing power, consider pivoting away from this pivot for ownership purposes in the big tournaments.
Philadelphia Phillies at Los Angeles Dodgers
And finally, we’ll wrap up the day with the Phillies and Dodgers. Strahm and Urias will get the start here, and they’ll also see an 8.5 total. Like the previous game, I could see this one going under, especially if Urias can shake off his previous two starts.
Phillies 4 star plays – Turner/Realmuto/Castellanos, Harper
Phillies 3.5 star plays – Schwarber/Marsh
GPP note – Urias isn’t typically a hot target to attack, but he has had his struggles as of late. Don’t be afraid to send some bats against him here in case this trend continues. As for hand, he is allowing more to lefties, so keep that open as an option.
Dodgers 5 star plays – Betts/Freeman
Dodgers 4 star plays – Muncy
GPP note – Strahm can hold his own and may be able to keep this offense in check for however long he pitches. They may eventually break through, but he could put a cap on their ceiling, so consider that as you’re looking for your Coors pivots.
And that’s going to do it for this one. Thanks for joining me, and be sure to check out the coach’s notes page to see who they are most interested in. Best of luck today!
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