Full Slate Breakdown for MLB DFS 5/27:
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My Take on a Consistent MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start an MLB slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target, but gives you a holistic look at the slate as well. Breaking down pitching also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the MLB Carnage Report this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the three pitchers that jumped out to me at first glance, good or bad.
- Framber Valdez
- Luis Castillo
- Shohei Ohtani
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Toronto Blue Jays@ Minnesota Twins (-115)
Pitchers:
Blue Jays – Chris Bassitt
Twins – Pablo Lopez
Rundown:
This game opened with a total of 8. Seeing MIN as the favorite has me a bit shocked. Bassitt has been pitching better than Lopez and Lopez has been at his worst when pitching at home. I do think both guys are viable but I prefer the TOR side in this one, which is painful to admit. Gallo and Correa have had success against Bassitt but the Twins do have plenty of K upside for Bassitt.
TOR 5-star plays: Bo Bichette
4-star plays: George Springer, Whit Merrifield
GPP Note: Team ISO of .165 against RHPs.
MIN 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Carlos Correa, Joey Gallo
GPP Note: Team ISO of .183 against RHPs.
San Diego Padres @ New York Yankees (-155)
Pitchers:
Padres – Michael Wacha
Yankees – Luis Severino
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. I am very interested in the Yankees side of this game. I think Severino could be a GPP winner for us on DK while the Yankees bats could do some damage to Wacha. Soto keeps getting it done for the Padres but he’s one of just a few who are swinging it well for them. I would expect Odor to wake up and realize he’s not that good any longer but we should ride him while he’s hot.
SD 5-star plays: Juan Soto
4-star plays: Rougned Odor
GPP Note: Team ISO of .155 against RHPs.
NYY 5-star plays: Anthony Rizzo
4-star plays: Aaron Judge, DJ LeMahieu
GPP Note: Team ISO of .180 against RHPs.
Chicago White Sox @ Detroit Tigers (-115)
Pitchers:
White Sox – Jesse Scholtens
Tigers – Michael Lorenzen
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. I am a little shocked to see such a strong total with Detroit favored. I don’t really like anything in this game but I could see a few guys getting there with how they have either been swinging it or have fared against the SP. If Scholtens offered more K upside, I would be interested as a GPP dart pitcher but he hasn’t shown much at the MLB level so far. Lorenzen could always get it done but I think he probably ends up with a more middling return.
CWS 5-star plays: Luis Robert
4-star plays: Gavin Sheets, Tim Anderson
GPP Note: Team ISO of .144 against RHPs.
DET 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Akil Baddoo, Riley Greene
GPP Note: Team ISO of .116 against RHPs.
Texas Rangers @ Baltimore Orioles (-120)
Pitchers:
Rangers – Andrew Heaney
Orioles – Dean Kremer
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. The Rangers lead baseball in runs/runs per game and people seem to sleep on them, which is weird at this point. I realize that Kremer has been throwing the ball well but he started the season out pretty roughly in April. Heaney is capable of putting up strong numbers but he’s also capable of getting lit up, which he was by this BAL squad to begin his 2023 season.
TEX 5-star plays: Corey Seager
4-star plays: Marcus Semien, Nathaniel Lowe
GPP Note: Team ISO of .190 against RHPs.
BAL 5-star plays: Ryan Mountcastle
4-star plays: Cedric Mullins, Austin Hays
GPP Note: Team ISO of .182 against LHPs.
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Los Angeles Dodgers @ Tampa Bay Rays (-120)
Pitchers:
Dodgers – Clayton Kershaw
Rays – Tyler Glasnow
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. Love seeing the return of Glasnow but it’s not a great spot to return to and he’s probably limited to 75-80 pitches after making 4 rehab appearances and maxing out at 67 pitches. Kershaw is coming off of the bereavement list I do believe but he gets a pretty tough match-up as well. I can see sprinkling both SPs into your builds but I wouldn’t overdo it. Look at what the Rays have done against LHPs this season, it’s nuts.
LAD 5-star plays: Freddie Freeman
4-star plays: Mookie Betts
GPP Note: Team ISO of .209 against RHPs.
TB 5-star plays: Yandy Diaz
4-star plays: Randy Arozarena, Wander Franco
GPP Note: Team ISO of .281 against LHPs.
Washington Nationals @ Kansas City Royals (EVEN)
Pitchers:
Nationals – Josiah Gray
Royals – Brady Singer
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. This match-up on Friday kept me from winning a TON of money and I am annoyed about that. Gray is certainly in play for me but his BBs have been creeping up while his Ks have crept down. Singer should be better than he has shown but at this point, I am going to wait on him until he does it over multiple starts. I think both offenses are worth our investments but they aren’t a lock, by any means.
WSH 5-star plays: Jeimer Candelario
4-star plays: Corey Dickerson, Lane Thomas
GPP Note: Team ISO of .116 against RHPs.
KC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Bobby Witt, Salvador Perez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .149 against RHPs.
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Seattle Mariners (-220)
Pitchers:
Pirates – Vince Velasquez
Mariners – Luis Castillo
Rundown:
This game opened with a total of 7.5. Don’t look now but it appears that J-Rod is heating up and it’s at a great time for Seattle. Castillo hasn’t been sharp but he’s been far better at home. I expected Kirby to dominate last night and he got his shit pushed in so it’s a spot where I want to go with Castillo as a team bounce back. Most places list Velasquez as the SP for PIT but I have also seen Roansy Contreras listed. Either way, I want the Seattle side.
PIT 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Bryan Reynolds
GPP Note: Team ISO of .162 against RHPs.
SEA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Julio Rodriguez, Ty France
GPP Note: Team ISO of just .152 against RHPs.
New York Mets (-195) @ Colorado Rockies
Pitchers:
Mets – Justin Verlander
Rockies – Chase Anderson
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 11. I would like to go back to the Mets because Anderson is…not good. Marte has absolutely torched him in their previous match-ups (39 PAs) and the Mets should have plenty of base runners. Verlander is interesting as the Rockies lineup is blah and Scherzer looked solid last night. I think that Verlander is slightly better than Scherzer right now so he’s intriguing, especially on a main slate that’s smaller than the day slate of action.
NYM 5-star plays: Starling Marte
4-star plays: Brandon Nimmo, Pete Alonso
GPP Note: Team ISO of .144 against RHPs.
COL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Elias Diaz, Charlie Blackmon
GPP Note: Team ISO of .147 against RHPs.
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Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves (-135)
Pitchers:
Phillies – Zack Wheeler
Braves – Charlie Morton
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. There is plenty of history between these teams and the opposing SPs. The Phillies have hit Morton extremely well while the Braves haven’t been as strong against Wheeler but they do have some HRs. I prefer the ATL side as I just think they are more dangerous at the plate but this feels like an excellent game to get some game stacks of and hope to get pieces of the 3-5 HRs that are going to be hit.
PHI 5-star plays: Bryce Harper
4-star plays: Alec Bohm, JT Realmuto
GPP Note: Team ISO of .149 against RHPs.
ATL 5-star plays: Ronald Acuna Jr
4-star plays: Austin Riley, Matt Olson
GPP Note: Team ISO of .181 against RHPs.
St Louis Cardinals @ Cleveland Guardians (-115)
Pitchers:
Cardinals – Jack Flaherty
Guardians – Tanner Bibee
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. I can’t trust Flaherty but the Guardians are one of the weakest offenses in baseball. He just doesn’t offer any stability or predictability at this point in time. Bibee has looked the part of a top pitching prospect but this isn’t a simple match-up. Cleveland is hitting .184 as a team with an OPS of .536 over the last week. Those numbers just aren’t going to get it done.
STL 5-star plays: Nolan Gorman
4-star plays: Paul Goldschmidt
GPP Note: Team ISO of .171 against RHPs.
CLE 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jose Ramirez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .113 against RHPs.
Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago Cubs (-178)
Pitchers:
Reds – Brandon Williamson
Cubs – Jameson Taillon
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. I want to believe this game sees plenty of runs. The Cubs have hit LHPs really well while Taillon has been butt cheeks for much of the season so far. The Reds’ offense has picked it up a bit of late so maybe there’s some GPP winning upside within this game. Suzuki-Morel might be one of my favorite mini-stack combinations on this slate with how they have destroyed LHPs.
CIN 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Matt McLain, Spencer Steer
GPP Note: Team ISO of .128 against RHPs.
CHC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Seiya Suzuki, Christopher Morel
GPP Note: Team ISO of .185 against LHPs.
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San Francisco Giants @ Milwaukee Brewers (-115)
Pitchers:
Giants – Logan Webb
Brewers – Corbin Burnes
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. If Webb is fully healthy, I think he’s in the better spot than Burnes. Burnes hasn’t been great at home and there’s upside to an SF stack. With that said, I could see both SPs being viable as the Giants do strike out a decent amount. The Milwaukee lineup lost Adames to the IL last night and that makes it so much weaker overall. Really have little desire to get bats in this game, aside from hotter one-offs.
SF 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Michael Conforto
GPP Note: Team ISO of .189 against RHPs.
MIL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Owen Miller
GPP Note: Team ISO of .161 against RHPs.
Houston Astros (-350) @ Oakland Athletics
Pitchers:
Astros – Framber Valdez
A’s – Hogan Harris
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. Framber is the chalk and deserves to be the chalk. To be honest, he better be chalk or the industry is slipping. Don’t over think it and plug him in. Surprisingly the Astros have been better against LHPs than RHPs despite their two best hitters being LH’d. Harris was absolutely lit up previously so there’s a good chance his ERA actually goes down tonight.
HOU 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jeremy Pena, Yordan Alvarez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .177 against LHPs.
OAK 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Esteury Ruiz
GPP Note: Team ISO of .155 against LHPs.
Boston Red Sox (-130) @ Arizona Diamondbacks
Pitchers:
Red Sox – Garrett Whitlock
D’Backs – Zach Davies
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9.5. Both SPs returning from the IL so we could see some bullpen action in this one. I love seeing the higher game total because I really like the idea of stacking both sides against those SPs returning. Boston gets the better match-up but I just always love stacking ARI with their combination of power and speed. I was shocked to see them send down Fletcher after his torrid run just two weeks ago.
BOS 5-star plays: Rafael Devers
4-star plays: Alex Verdugo
GPP Note: Team ISO of .179 against RHPs.
ARI 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Christian Walker, Gabriel Moreno
GPP Note: Team ISO of .179 against RHPs.
Miami Marlins @ Los Angeles Angels (-205)
Pitchers:
Marlins – Edward Cabrera
Angels – Shohei Ohtani
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. It’s all about Ohtani in this spot. He might be the guy to finally keep Soler in the park. Cabrera is interesting because I could see a big K performance out of him but he needs to figure out how to avoid walking people. I honestly wouldn’t be shocked to see 20 Ks between the two SPs tonight.
MIA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Yuli Gurriel
GPP Note: Team ISO of .135 against RHPs.
LAA 5-star plays: Mike Trout
4-star plays: Hunter Renfroe
GPP Note: Team ISO of .167 against RHPs.
Stacks of the Day: Main Slate
- New York Mets
- Chicago Cubs
- Boston Red Sox
MLB Dinger of the Day – Bryce Harper, Phillies
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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