Full Slate Breakdown for MLB DFS 5/26:
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My Take on a Consistent MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start an MLB slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target, but gives you a holistic look at the slate as well. Breaking down pitching also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the MLB Carnage Report this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the three pitchers that jumped out to me at first glance, good or bad.
- Kevin Gausman
- Mitch Keller
- Hunter Brown
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Toronto Blue Jays (-160) @ Minnesota Twins
Pitchers:
Blue Jays – Kevin Gausman
Twins – Louie Varland
Rundown:
This game opened with a total of 8. Of the 7 HRs allowed by Varland so far this season, 6 of them have been hit by RHBs. That’s not a great thing to see when he’s about to face a TOR lineup that has a ton of RH power in the lineup. Buxton has begun to run a little bit more and we just saw the Rays run all over Manoah and Kirk. I would assume we end up seeing Jansen behind the plate but I have to be interested in base stealers against TOR at this point (too bad MIN sucks at stealing bases).
TOR 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: George Springer, Whit Merrifield
GPP Note: Team ISO of .161 against RHPs.
MIN 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Carlos Correa, Byron Buxton
GPP Note: Team ISO of .186 against RHPs.
San Diego Padres (-115) @ New York Yankees
Pitchers:
Padres – Joe Musgrove
Yankees – Randy Vasquez
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9.5. The Yankees definitely let me down last night so it’s hard to get excited about them facing a better SP. With that being said, I will take my shots with them at Yankee stadium. The Padres haven’t been a very dangerous offense but they get a guy making his debut who is rocking about a 4.5 BB/9 at AAA this season. He does have K ability and upside but this feels like a chance for the Padres to really wake up.
SD 5-star plays: Juan Soto
4-star plays: Rougned Odor
GPP Note: Team ISO of .154 against RHPs.
NYY 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Aaron Judge, Gleyber Torres
GPP Note: Team ISO of .184 against RHPs.
Chicago White Sox (-145) @ Detroit Tigers
Pitchers:
White Sox – Lance Lynn
Tigers – Joey Wentz
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. I was a little caught off guard by the fact that Wentz has never faced the White Sox. Robert has absolutely demolished LHPs so far this season but he isn’t 100% right now so make sure he’s in the lineup tonight. Wentz has allowed RHBs to hit 9 HRs to go with an OPS of .941 so far in 2023 so there’s going to be some value in the CWS RHBs in this spot. The issue we have is they aren’t very consistent or even trust worthy. Just like Wentz against RHBs, Lynn has been demolished by LHBs so far this season.
CWS 5-star plays: Luis Robert
4-star plays: Jake Burger
GPP Note: Team ISO of .163 against LHPs.
DET 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Akil Baddoo, Riley Greene
GPP Note: Team ISO of .117 against RHPs.
Texas Rangers @ Baltimore Orioles (-135)
Pitchers:
Rangers – Jon Gray
Orioles – Grayson Rodriguez
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. Rodriguez has given up 8 HRs over his last 4 starts. I don’t like that number going against a TEX lineup with plenty of power in it. He made his debut against this TEX squad so there’s some familiarity with him. He has alternated solid starts with really bad ones over his last 4 so it might be a bad night for him. Gray has been really solid over his last few starts but can be had by LHBs, so that’s where I am focusing my BAL exposure.
TEX 5-star plays: Corey Seager
4-star plays: Josh Jung, Nathaniel Lowe
GPP Note: Team ISO of .186 against RHPs.
BAL 5-star plays: Cedric Mullins (DTD)
4-star plays: Gunnar Henderson, Adam Frazier
GPP Note: Team ISO of .167 against RHPs.
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Los Angeles Dodgers @ Tampa Bay Rays (EVEN)
Pitchers:
Dodgers – Noah Syndergaard
Rays – Jalen Beeks/Cooper Criswell
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. The Dodgers have been striking out a decent chunk but we can’t rely on the opener/long reliever combo to necessarily take advantage of it. JD Martinez has been rolling at the plate so I wouldn’t be shocked to see him slide into the 3 spot to get him an AB against Beeks (Smith probably still ends up in the 3-hole). The Rays just ran wild against TOR so I can only imagine how many SBs they plan on attempting against Syndergaard.
LAD 5-star plays: Freddie Freeman
4-star plays: JD Martinez, Mookie Betts
GPP Note: Team ISO of .212 against RHPs.
TB 5-star plays: Wander Franco
4-star plays: Randy Arozarena, Josh Lowe
GPP Note: Team ISO of .218 against RHPs.
Washington Nationals @ Kansas City Royals (-120)
Pitchers:
Nationals – Patrick Corbin
Royals – Jordan Lyles
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. Corbin has given up 2 earned in each of his last 4 starts but has just 13 Ks over that stretch. I am seriously considering him tonight and that scares the shit out of me. So much so that it’s forcing me to think about playing lightly to avoid scratching that Corbin itch. Lyles has been pretty bad this season but he has been…better at home? I think I’d rather mini-stack each side than fully stack them, which is weird considering the total sits at 9 right now.
WSH 5-star plays: Jeimer Candelario
4-star plays: Corey Dickerson, Lane Thomas
GPP Note: Team ISO of .111 against RHPs.
KC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Bobby Witt, Salvador Perez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .161 against LHPs.
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Seattle Mariners (-155)
Pitchers:
Pirates – Mitch Keller
Mariners – George Kirby
Rundown:
This game opened with a total of 7. Kirby looks to be in the best spot on the slate as far as SPs but can he match the upside of Gausman or even Hunter Brown? The Mariners have a team OPS of just .699 against RHPs this season, which bodes well for the impressive Mitch Keller. It’s been years in the making but it’s great to see Mitch figure it out at the MLB level. I would LOVE for him to keep it up and be a top 5-7 pitcher in the NL this season.
PIT 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Ji Hwan Bae
GPP Note: Team ISO of .146 against RHPs.
SEA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Julio Rodriguez, Ty France
GPP Note: Team ISO of just .150 against RHPs.
New York Mets (-210) @ Colorado Rockies
Pitchers:
Mets – Max Scherzer
Rockies – Connor Seabold
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 11. I am interested in seeing how Scherzer performs in Coors tonight. He has made 6 career starts at Coors and he has yet to allow less than 3 earned in any start. We know that Colorado offers a pretty weak lineup but prime Scherzer wasn’t sharp in Coors, how can this version be? The Mets will be pretty popular and I understand why but a majority of the lineup has been on the struggle bus. Can we mostly fade Coors bats tonight? I am leaning towards a yes but it’s dangerous.
NYM 5-star plays: Pete Alonso
4-star plays: Francisco Alvarez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .144 against RHPs.
COL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jurickson Profar
GPP Note: Team ISO of .144 against RHPs.
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Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves (-155)
Pitchers:
Phillies – Taijuan Walker
Braves – Jared Shuster
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 10. Don’t look now but Austin Riley might be heating up. He’s in the running for my Dinger of the Day call. I just hate going there as my call after he double-donged last night. Shuster is coming off of an excellent start and looks to have his walks straightened out. The Phillies lineup has power against LHPs but they don’t have consistent production against them. I don’t think we are using Shuster tonight at all but I wouldn’t be shocked by a quality start. Atlanta seems like a great pivot off of the Mets tonight.
PHI 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Alec Bohm, Bryce Harper
GPP Note: Team ISO of .179 against LHPs.
ATL 5-star plays: Ronald Acuna Jr
4-star plays: Austin Riley, Matt Olson
GPP Note: Team ISO of .181 against RHPs.
St Louis Cardinals @ Cleveland Guardians (-115)
Pitchers:
Cardinals – Matthew Liberatore
Guardians – Shane Bieber
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. I actually wouldn’t be shocked to see this game go under as I just don’t love this spot. I am a Liberatore fan and he does face an offense that has trouble getting out of wet paper bags. Gorman stands out as a strong HR possibility but I don’t really want to pick on Bieber. He feels like one of those pitchers that ends up in the middle of the pack fantasy wise but he does just enough to hold down an opposing stack.
STL 5-star plays: Nolan Gorman
4-star plays: Paul Goldschmidt
GPP Note: Team ISO of .174 against RHPs.
CLE 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jose Ramirez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .121 against LHPs.
Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago Cubs (-165)
Pitchers:
Reds – Hunter Greene
Cubs – Justin Steele
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7. My dude Justin Steele on the mound, in a great spot today! Too bad this game is an afternoon, island game. The wind is blowing in at Wrigley so maybe that helps Greene and his potential HR issues. His HRs allowed rate has been down this season and it’s definitely down on the road so maybe his Ks play up a bit in this spot. I am really intrigued by playing this game in showdown action on DK.
CIN 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Matt McLain, Nick Senzel
GPP Note: Team ISO of .134 against LHPs.
CHC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Ian Happ, Christopher Morel
GPP Note: Team ISO of .159 against RHPs.
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San Francisco Giants @ Milwaukee Brewers (-135)
Pitchers:
Giants – Alex Wood
Brewers – Freddy Peralta
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. Peralta has been spectacular at home this season and this SF team can strike out plenty. Wood is exciting on a Friday night, when facing the Brewers. I just don’t know if we can trust him to throw 80+ pitches as the Giants have kept him in the 70-75 range. We have been picking on the Brewers with LHPs all season long so I hope we can do the same tonight but it’s not a slam dunk play.
SF 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Michael Conforto
GPP Note: Team ISO of .186 against RHPs.
MIL 5-star plays: Owen Miller
4-star plays: Joey Wiemer
GPP Note: Team ISO of .135 against LHPs.
Houston Astros (-285) @ Oakland Athletics
Pitchers:
Astros – Hunter Brown
A’s – James Kaprielian
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. Kaprielian has been solid in his last 2 starts, the last one coming against this HOU squad. A majority of the HOU lineup has been struggling and for some reason, they aren’t hitting RHPs all that well this season. Hunter Brown is probably in the best spot for the W tonight as I love his ability and think this OAK squad is just booty. Ruiz is ALWAYS an option thanks to his SB ability. The thing that stands out to me for Ruiz is that base stealers are just 2 for 7 against Brown this year.
HOU 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Kyle Tucker, Yordan Alvarez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .122 against RHPs.
OAK 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Esteury Ruiz
GPP Note: Team ISO of .133 against RHPs.
Boston Red Sox (-140) @ Arizona Diamondbacks
Pitchers:
Red Sox – Chris Sale
D’Backs – Brandon Pfaadt
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. Pfaadt had a lot of hype coming up but has mostly disappointed at the MLB level. His last 2 starts were better than his first 2 and he does get BOS when the offense is struggling. Sale is throwing the ball so damn well so it’s tough to not want to get some heavy exposure to him. I generally like stacking the D’Backs so it’s going to be a match-up where I make sure to expose myself to both sides.
BOS 5-star plays: Rafael Devers
4-star plays: Alex Verdugo, Raimel Tapia
GPP Note: Team ISO of .178 against RHPs.
ARI 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Christian Walker, Gabriel Moreno
GPP Note: Team ISO of .154 against LHPs.
Miami Marlins @ Los Angeles Angels (-140)
Pitchers:
Marlins – Jesus Luzardo
Angels – Reid Detmers
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. Both SPs are capable of putting up big time performances but both are likely to give up a few runs in this spot. I know that Detmers has the better match-up while Luzardo might be the better pitcher. Luzardo is coming off of a rough performance while Detmers is coming off of a dominant one. One thing I know is true, Jorge Soler just absolutely demolishes LHPs.
MIA 5-star plays: Jorge Soler
4-star plays: Yuli Gurriel
GPP Note: Team ISO of .167 against LHPs.
LAA 5-star plays: Mike Trout
4-star plays: Hunter Renfroe, Zach Neto
GPP Note: Team ISO of .163 against LHPs.
Stacks of the Day: Main Slate
- Atlanta Braves
- New York Mets
- Philadelphia Phillies
MLB Dinger of the Day – Pete Alonso, Mets
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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