Full Slate Breakdown for MLB DFS 5/25:
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My Take on a Consistent MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start an MLB slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target, but gives you a holistic look at the slate as well. Breaking down pitching also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the MLB Carnage Report this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the three pitchers that jumped out to me at first glance, good or bad.
- Logan Gilbert
- Kyle Hendricks
- JP Sears
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San Diego Padres (-178) @ Washington Nationals
Pitchers:
Padres – Blake Snell
Nationals – Jake Irvin
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9.5. On the surface, this is a game that Blake Snell should dominate but the issue is that he walks too many, his K numbers are down some, and a few of the Nationals bats have hit him hard. I do think there’s upside for him but it’s not a slam dunk that he achieves that upside. Irvin should get smacked around but the Padres haven’t exactly been a juggernaut on the offensive side of things.
SD 5-star plays: Juan Soto
4-star plays: Rougned Odor
GPP Note: Team ISO of .151 against RHPs.
WSH 5-star plays: Lane Thomas
4-star plays: Joey Meneses, Stone Garrett
GPP Note: Team ISO of .138 against LHPs.
Chicago White Sox (-140) @ Detroit Tigers
Pitchers:
White Sox – Lucas Giolito
Tigers – Alex Faedo
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. The Tigers roster has combined for 7 HRs in about 180 PAs against Giolito but they have also struck out a total of 51 times. Faedo has been serviceable so far, not allowing more than 3 runs in any of his appearances. The downside is that he has allowed 5 HRs over his 3 starts. Giolito has been stronger than I would have thought he’d be but he still has a few outings giving up 4+ runs. He’s in a plus spot against this Detroit squad.
CWS 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Romy Gonzalez, Luis Robert
GPP Note: Team ISO of .143 against RHPs.
DET 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Javy Baez, Eric Haase
GPP Note: Team ISO of .116 against RHPs.
Baltimore Orioles @ New York Yankees (-135)
Pitchers:
Orioles – Kyle Gibson
Yankees – Clarke Schmidt
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. This feels like a game that should go over a 9 game total. I think that both SPs are serviceable but there really should be a handful of HRs hit at this park today. I haven’t looked at the NY weather but the Nation has been heating up. Adam Frazier is absolutely tormenting the Yankees so far in this series and it could definitely continue today as I definitely want LHBs against Schmidt.
BAL 5-star plays: Adam Frazier
4-star plays: Cedric Mullins, Guunnar Henderson
GPP Note: Team ISO of .169 against RHPs.
NYY 5-star plays: Aaron Judge
4-star plays: Anthony Rizzo, Greg Allen
GPP Note: Team ISO of .187 against RHPs.
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Toronto Blue Jays @ Tampa Bay Rays (-155)
Pitchers:
Blue Jays – Alek Manoah
Rays – Zach Eflin
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. Super volatile game in terms of pitching as Eflin has been showcasing K upside but he’s allowing HRs. Manoah has been trash for much of the season but then randomly puts together a great performance. I prefer Eflin for sure but the HRs could be happening in this spot as well. Springer has started to heat up and I wouldn’t be shocked if he gets 1 or 2 off of Eflin.
TOR 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: George Springer, Bo Bichette
GPP Note: Team ISO of .165 against RHPs.
TB 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Josh Lowe, Randy Arozarena
GPP Note: Team ISO of .220 against RHPs.
Miami Marlins (-125) @ Colorado Rockies
Pitchers:
Marlins – Braxton Garrett
Rockies – Kyle Freeland
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 11. Am I going back to pitching in Coors? Yes I am. Garrett has been throwing the ball extremely well of late and the Rockies aren’t a very dangerous offense right now. Does it scare the crap out of me today? Yes, it most definitely does. Freeland could surprise as well but with the way that Soler is swinging it against LHPs, I have to assume he hits 14 HRs in 3 ABs against him.
MIA 5-star plays: Jorge Soler
4-star plays: Bryan De La Cruz, Garrett Cooper
GPP Note: Team ISO of .166 against LHPs.
COL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Elias Diaz, Kris Bryant
GPP Note: Team ISO of .127 against LHPs.
Oakland Athletics @ Seattle Mariners (-250)
Pitchers:
A’s – JP Sears
Mariners – Logan Gilbert
Rundown:
This game opened with a total of 7.5. Gilbert is going to be the overwhelming chalk tonight. We really can’t get away from it at this point. Sears is a sneaky GPP option as he has been pretty solid over his last few starts while the Mariners offense has been mediocre, at best. I keep expecting the Seattle offense to wake up and go on a run but we haven’t seen it. I certainly will be stacking them yet again.
OAK 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Esteury Ruiz
GPP Note: Team ISO of .133 against RHPs.
SEA 5-star plays: Teoscar Hernandez
4-star plays: Jose Caballero, Jarred Kelenic
GPP Note: Team ISO of just .161 against LHPs.
New York Mets @ Chicago Cubs (-115)
Pitchers:
Mets – Carlos Carrasco
Cubs – Kyle Hendricks
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. Wind game in Wrigley but we see a slightly higher total than last night’s game. I think we can attribute that to a worse SP match-up. Hendricks is making his 2023 debut after putting in a handful of minor league starts. Carrasco has been ass to begin the season and he truly might just be washed up at this point. I hate saying that about a guy that has had plenty of success at the MLB level but it just might be the case. The wind makes it tough to stack this game up.
NYM 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Pete Alonso, Brett Baty
GPP Note: Team ISO of .144 against LHPs.
CHC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Christopher Morel, Seiya Suzuki
GPP Note: Team ISO of .161 against RHPs.
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Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves (EVEN)
Pitchers:
Phillies – Aaron Nola
Braves – Dylan Dodd
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9.5. Acuna and Riley are a combined 32 for 84 with 7 HRs and 9 2Bs against Nola. I like those numbers for some upside tonight. I haven’t been on the Nola train this season and I still believe he’s in for an off-year. He’s coming off of a very strong start but he has alternated strong with blah starts over the last few weeks. We never want to pick on the Braves with pitching, so why would I start now? Dodd has been rough at the MLB level but there’s a bunch of weak hitters against LHPs in the PHI lineup (aside from offering power, they don’t offer much else).
PHI 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Bryson Stott, Nick Castellanos
GPP Note: Team ISO of .173 against LHPs.
ATL 5-star plays: Ronald Acuna Jr
4-star plays: Austin Riley
GPP Note: Team ISO of .177 against RHPs.
St Louis Cardinals (-165) @ Cincinnati Reds
Pitchers:
Cardinals – Miles Mikolas
Reds – Luke Weaver
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 10. Weaver gets to take on his former team and he could get shelled or he could show his flashes of dominance for more than an inning and surprise us. Mikolas has had some solid road starts of late but this park is all set up for HRs to be hit today. The Cardinals lineup actually dropped while I was writing this and let me tell you, it’s an ugly one. Weaver has been hit hardest by RHBs this season but STL is resting Arenado, Goldschmidt, and Contreras.
STL 5-star plays: Paul DeJong
4-star plays: Nolan Gorman, Oscar Mercado
GPP Note: Team ISO of .176 against RHPs.
CIN 5-star plays: TJ Friedl, Jonathan India
4-star plays: Matt McLain, Spencer Steer
GPP Note: Team ISO of .129 against RHPs.
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San Francisco Giants @ Milwaukee Brewers
Pitchers:
Giants – Scott Alexander/Logan Webb
Brewers – Julio Teheran?
Rundown:
Waiting on the Vegas information. The rumor is that Alexander will open and Webb will be the long man but that just seems odd. I think there’s a chance that Webb doesn’t pitch after dealing with back issues. He certainly could follow him but it might be dependent on how loose he’s able to get. Milwaukee is hurting for starting pitching so they turn to Julio Teheran? He hasn’t pitched in the majors for multiple seasons now, so I would assume the Giants are in a great spot.
SF 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Michael Conforto, JD Davis
GPP Note: Team ISO of .187 against RHPs.
MIL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Rowdy Tellez, Owen Miller
GPP Note: Team ISO of .163 against LHPs.
Stacks of the Day: Main Slate
- New York Yankees
- Baltimore Orioles
- Atlanta Braves
MLB Dinger of the Day – Jorge Soler, Marlins
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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