Hello again everybody, and welcome to today’s MLB Full Count breakdown! I’m nilly and I run the carnage report and DraftKings tiers tools. I also coach NASCAR, so be sure to check us out every weekend over there, too. It’s Friday, and we’re greeted by a few early games followed by a 12-game main slate. There are plenty of ways to go, though at first glance this slate looks to be one where the offenses will be much more exciting than the pitchers. The opposite may hold true for the early games, so let’s dig in to see what we can find!
A look at pitchers
The main slate today feels like a bigger version of what we had yesterday, as there are more pitchers in average or bad spots than in good spots. Only a couple have better than modest Vegas support, and even those are a little questionable. Things are much better for the early games, as we have Gallen in a pretty good spot. As always be sure to check out the coach’s notes page to see who they are most interested in.
Early games
Arizona Diamondbacks at Pittsburgh Pirates
We’ll kick things off with the Diamondbacks and Pirates, with Gallen and Oviedo on the mound. A 7.5 total, it’s a Gallen game, so chances are this one is going to be pretty straight forward. It’s a shame he’s not on the main slate, but what can you do?
Diamondbacks 4 star plays – Walker, Marte
Diamondbacks 3.5 star plays – Gurriel
GPP note – Lefties have the slight edge against Oviedo, though he hasn’t allowed a homer since he gave up three to Boston back in early April.
Pirates 5 star plays – none
Pirates 3.5 star plays – McCutchen, Reynolds
GPP note – Stack at your own risk!
New York Yankees at Cincinnati Reds
Next up we have the Yankees and Reds, with Schmidt and Lively as the starters. We get a juicy 10.5 total here, though there are some weather concerns lurking in the distance, so be sure to keep your eye on the skies so you don’t get zapped by the ol’ postponed storm.
Yankees 5 star plays – Judge, Rizzo
Yankees 4 star plays – Torres, Volpe
GPP note – A huge total and their opponent isn’t exactly dominant, so expect them to be the chalk of the early games. Try some wrap-around stacks and/or cheaper bats to help with that.
Reds 4.5 star plays – Fraley/India
Reds 3.5 star plays – Steer
GPP note – Schmidt allows about equal power to both sides of the plate, so you can go after him from either side of the plate.
Milwaukee Brewers at Tampa Bay Rays
We’ll round out the early games with the Brewers and Rays, with Houser and McClanahan to face off. It’s a little too early for us to have any Vegas insight here, though I’m going to go out on a limb and figure that they’re going to favor the home team.
Brewers 4 star plays – Contreras/Adames
Brewers 3.5 star plays – Yelich
GPP note – It’s not the best spot one could ask for, but McClanahan is allowing some solid power to righties on occasion, so you can try your luck with some of them.
Rays 5 star plays – Arozarena, Franco
Rays 4 star plays – Lowe/Lowe
GPP note – Houser allows more contact and power to righties, so be sure you’re grabbing your fair share of them.
Main slate
Detroit Tigers at Washington Nationals
We’ll switch over to the main slate now, starting with the Tigers and Nationals. We’ll have Boyd and Irvin on the mound, along with a 9.0 total. Nearly every game on this slate will be within an arm’s reach of this total, making teams of all shapes and sizes in play today – including these two.
Tigers 4 star plays – Greene
Tigers 3.5 star plays – Baez, Ibanez
GPP note – These bats are in a pretty good spot and are cheap, making them an interesting option. Righties have the statcast advantage.
Nationals 5 star plays – none
Nationals 4 star plays – Thomas, Ruiz
GPP note – A decent spot for the righties, as Boyd allows some decent xwOBA/ISO to them.
Chicago Cubs at Philadelphia Phillies
Next up we have the Cubs and Phillies, with Stroman and Suarez as the starters. Another 9.0 total, you’ll have to pay up for quite a few of these bats, but fortunately there are plenty of ways to save a buck or two with some of the other offenses.
Cubs 4.5 star plays – Happ, Wisdom
Cubs 4 star plays – Swanson, Bellinger
GPP note – Suarez allows a nice chunk of contact and power to righties, so go after him with some traditional splits with some bats that should see less ownership than others in similarly good spots.
Phillies 4.5 star plays – Harper
Phillies 3.5 star plays – Schwarber, Turner/Castellanos
GPP note – Stroman allows some decent contact and power to lefties, but not much of anything to righties.
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Baltimore Orioles at Toronto Blue Jays
A third straight 9.0 game awaits us next, this one between the Orioles and Blue Jays. Gibson and Kikuchi will be our starters here, and if you’re thinking what I’m thinking, this game looks like a powder keg just waiting to explode. We’ll see which version of these starters show up, as they very well could make or break the slate.
Orioles 4.5 star plays – Mullins
Orioles 4 star plays – Mountcastle/Santander/Rutschman
GPP note – Kikuchi is as random as always, with both a high ceiling and low floor, so this isn’t a bad place to hedge. Bats on either side are fine, as when he has a bad game, he allows plenty to both sides.
Blue Jays 5 star plays – Guerrero/Springer
Blue Jays 4 star plays – Varsho, Chapman/Merrifield
GPP note – Lefties have the power advantage, though Gibson is allowing good xwOBA to righties as well.
Cleveland Guardians at New York Mets
Next up we have the Guardians and Mets, with Quantrill and Carrasco on the mound. We move down to an 8.5 total, though like the previous game, it’s likely going to depend on which version of these starters make an appearance. I don’t mind looking at teams with 3.xx totals in situations like that!
Guardians 4.5 star plays – Ramirez/Bell
Guardians 3.5 star plays – Naylor
GPP note – Carrasco’s struggles continue as he is still trying to find himself, so attacking him here isn’t out of the question. Righties have the statcast advantage against him.
Mets 4.5 star plays – Lindor, Alonso
Mets 3.5 star plays – McNeil/Nimmo
GPP note – Quantrill has been quite random in his starts and is allowing decent power to lefties. Shuffle in some high-powered righties in case he has another bad start.
Seattle Mariners at Atlanta Braves
The Mariners and Braves are up next, and we get some Bryce on Bryce action for this one. An 8.5 total, this is one of the games that I could see going under (at least more reliably than most of the others), so be sure to give these two a look today and consider hedging.
Mariners 4.5 star plays – Rodriguez
Mariners 3.5 star plays – Kelenic, Hernandez
GPP note – Elder isn’t a super great target, but he is allowing some power to lefties and xwOBA to righties, so some medium-sized stacks would be fine here.
Braves 4 star plays – Acuna
Braves 3.5 star plays – Olson, Murphy/Ozuna
GPP note – A decent implied total, but Miller has been tough, so if you go here I would be sure to hedge a good amount.
Colorado Rockies at Texas Rangers
Moving right along, the Rockies and Rangers will face off next, with Kauffmann and Perez getting the start. Vegas is giving this one a 9.0 total, with the vast majority of that coming from the home team. While I don’t see Colorado taking this one, I do think that they can make at least some noise here, so perhaps it won’t be as close to a blowout as what we’re being told.
Rockies 4 star plays – Bryant/Cron, Blackmon
Rockies 3.5 star plays – Grichuk/Profar
GPP note – These guys are getting hardly any love from Vegas, but Perez is allowing good contact and power to righties, so contrarian stacks are in play here.
Rangers 4.5 star plays – Seager/Lowe
Rangers 4 star plays – Semien, Taveras
GPP note – Plenty of love from Vegas against a pitcher who hasn’t really established himself, so expect some inflated ownership here.
Kansas City Royals at Chicago White Sox
Greinke and my Royals will take on Kopech and the White Sox next, and we get a 9.5 total that is mostly split down the middle. That does seem fair, as it does seem like a flip of the coin, but I also think that we have a good chance of seeing some fireworks here. Both starters have had it rough in 2023, and I would not be the least bit surprised to see at least one of them get shelled.
Royals 4.5 star plays – Perez
Royals 3.5 star plays – Pasquantino, Witt/Melendez
GPP note – A good spot for these bats, you can get a lot of them at a discount. As a bonus, Kopech allows good contact and power to both sides of the plate.
White Sox 4.5 star plays – Robert/Anderson
White Sox 4 star plays – Burger, Sheets
GPP note – Greinke continues to act like a discount Kikuchi, so you can hedge here for the power upside and for a budget SP2.
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Oakland Athletics at Houston Astros
Next up we have Waldichuk and the Athletics set to take on Bielak and the Astros, along with another 9.5 total. Vegas has the home team as the heavy favorites here, which seems quite obvious, but this one feels a bit like the other Texas game to me (just with fewer name brand players on the underdog squad).
Athletics 4.5 star plays – Rooker
Athletics 3.5 star plays – Peterson/Langeliers
GPP note – Basically the same as Colorado, there’s no love from Vegas here but Bielak is allowing plenty of contact and power to both sides, so don’t be afraid to try some budget contrarian stacks here.
Astros 5 star plays – Bregman/Alvarez
Astros 4 star plays – Altuve/Pena
GPP note – A big total against a fun target to attack, these guys will be chalky so you’ll need to find ways to get funky elsewhere. Pretty much every bat is in play here.
Los Angeles Dodgers at St Louis Cardinals
The Dodgers and Cardinals are up next, with Gonsolin and Matz as the starters. This is another game with some potential rain issues, so be sure to keep an eye on things here. A game getting postponed is no fun, but an early rain delay may benefit the home team…
Dodgers 5 star plays – Betts/Freeman
Dodgers 4 star plays – Martinez, Muncy
GPP note – Traditional splits are the way to go for the most part, though Matz is allowing good xwOBA to lefties.
Cardinals 4.5 star plays – Goldschmidt/Arenado
Cardinals 3.5 star plays – Nootbaar
GPP note – Gonsolin has looked good as of late, but so have these guys. This is an excellent hedge spot, but there’s no statcast advantage anywhere, so don’t worry about splits too much.
Minnesota Twins at Los Angeles Angels
We’ll head out west for our last few games, starting with the Twins and Angels. Ryan and Detmers get the start here, and with them, an 8.5 total. Vegas has the visitors as the slight favorite here, though this is certainly another coin flip matchup. There are both pricey and discount players all around, so there’s a little something for everyone here.
Twins 4.5 star plays – Buxton/Correa
Twins 3.5 star plays – Solano
GPP note – Detmers allows decent xwOBA to both sides of the plate, but a bit more power to lefties than he does to righties. Be sure to get exposure to any left-handed bats that get the start today.
Angels 4.5 star plays – Ohtani/Trout
Angels 3.5 star plays – Renfroe/Drury
GPP note – Though not quite as good of a hedge spot as what the Cardinals have, this isn’t a bad place to do so with as both sides have decent upside in this matchup.
Boston Red Sox at San Diego Padres
Paxton and the Red Sox will take on Snell and the Padres next, and Vegas is giving these two an 8.5 total as well. They give the advantage to the home team, but this is one that I’m going to disagree with. I don’t see a blowout happening or anything of the sort, but I do like Boston to take this one with a run or two.
Red Sox 4.5 star plays – Devers
Red Sox 3.5 star plays – Turner, Yoshida
GPP note – Snell seems to be improving but does still have some big numbers against him against righties, so they’re still in play here despite the unattractive total.
Padres 4.5 star plays – Soto/Bogaerts/Tatis
Padres 3.5 star plays – Kim
GPP note – Paxton hit the ground running in his return, so it might not be a bad idea to hedge some here in case he has another solid outing.
Miami Marlins at San Francisco Giants
We’ll wrap up the day with the Marlins and Giants, with Alcantara and DeSclafani as the starters. This 7.5 total is the lowest on the slate, and it’s split mostly down the middle, making these two pitchers interesting options today. If you haven’t game stacked pitchers in a while, perhaps this could be a place to do it?
Marlins 4 star plays – Cooper
Marlins 3.5 star plays – Soler/De La Cruz
GPP note – DeSclafani allows modest power to righties on occasion, so you can try some one-offs or mini-stacks against him here.
Giants 4 star plays – Yastrzemski/Conforto
Giants 3.5 star plays – Davis
GPP note – Same idea as above, but it’s the lefties in the better spot here. I wouldn’t go overboard, but you can have some of these bats all to yourself.
And that’s going to do it for this one. Thanks for joining me, and be sure to check out the coach’s notes page to see who they are most interested in. Best of luck today!
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