Full Slate Breakdown for MLB DFS 5/16:
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My Take on a Consistent MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start an MLB slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target, but gives you a holistic look at the slate as well. Breaking down pitching also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the MLB Carnage Report this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the three pitchers that jumped out to me at first glance, good or bad.
- Clayton Kershaw
- Jordan Montgomery
- Justin Steele
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Minnesota Twins @ Los Angeles Dodgers (-195)
Pitchers:
Twins – Bailey Ober
Dodgers – Clayton Kershaw
Rundown:
This game opened with a total of 7.5. Last night’s game was a good one but as a Twins fan, a disappointing one. Kershaw feels like a great spot tonight as the Twins overall roster has struggled against LHPs. Add in the fact that the team’s hottest hitters at the moment are basically LHBs. Muncy had a massive game and while I normally hate chasing a multi-HR game, I also know there are guys that get hot and stay hot for multiple games. Muncy is one of those types of players.
MIN 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Carlos Correa
GPP Note: Team ISO of .158 against LHPs.
LAD 5-star plays: Max Muncy
4-star plays: Freddie Freeman
GPP Note: Team ISO of .221 against RHPs.
Kansas City Royals @ San Diego Padres (-220)
Pitchers:
Royals – Brady Singer
Padres – Seth Lugo
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. Singer has 3 great starts this season but a bunch of other really bad ones. He gets the Padres when they are struggling a bit but damn it’s really tough to gauge what he’s going to do. I still expect Lugo to regress a bit but he has such a strong match-up, after Wacha nearly no-hit them last night. He does have some struggles with LHBs this season so there is a route to a KC mini-stack that I kind of like for tonight.
KC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Nick Pratto, Vinnie Pasquantino
GPP Note: Team ISO of .147 against RHPs.
SD 5-star plays: Juan Soto
4-star plays: Fernando Tatis
GPP Note: Team ISO of .150 against RHPs.
Cleveland Guardians (-125) @ Chicago White Sox
Pitchers:
Guardians – Shane Bieber
White Sox – Lance Lynn
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. Lynn has been pretty bad this season, overall but the one thing he has been able to do is pick up Ks. The issue with that is that the Guardians don’t strike out a ton but they do have some rough games in that department. Bieber hadn’t been picking up Ks but last time out he looked like the dominant 2020 version of himself. Luis Robert and Josh Naylor are on fire at the plate right now, at least from a power standpoint.
CLE 5-star plays: Jose Ramirez
4-star plays: Josh Naylor, Andres Gimenez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .108 against RHPs.
CWS 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Andrew Benintendi, Luis Robert
GPP Note: Team ISO of .143 against RHPs.
Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles (-130)
Pitchers:
Angels – Chase Silseth
Orioles – Dean Kremer
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. Silseth has looked solid this time around at the MLB level but he struggled as an SP last year. He gets a tough match-up as BAL has plenty of power to throw at him. Kremer has back-to-back strong starts but has allowed 4+ runs in 5 of his 8 this season. He does get the Angels at a time where a majority of their bats have been silent but it’s such a dangerous offense and his K upside isn’t quite there.
LAA 5-star plays: Shohei Ohtani
4-star plays: Mickey Moniak
GPP Note: Team ISO of .169 against RHPs.
BAL 5-star plays: Adley Rutschman
4-star plays: Cedric Mullins
GPP Note: Team ISO of .160 against RHPs.
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New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays (-170)
Pitchers:
Yankees – Domingo German
Blue Jays – Kevin Gausman
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. Gausman is always a nasty option with his upside but he has blow up games that leave you scratching your head. He threw it pretty damn well against the Yankees earlier. German hasn’t been great for much of the season so I feel decent in my desire to stack TOR tonight. The TOR roster has 7 HRs in 90 PAs against German in their careers so there’s definitely power to be had.
NYY 5-star plays: Aaron Judge
4-star plays: Anthony Rizzo
GPP Note: Team ISO of .177 against RHPs.
TOR 5-star plays: Vlad Guerrero
4-star plays: Bo Bichette, Brandon Belt
GPP Note: Team ISO of .161 against RHPs.
Washington Nationals @ Miami Marlins (-145)
Pitchers:
Nationals – Josiah Gray
Marlins – Jesus Luzardo
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. We get a couple of SPs that could put up top tier type performances in this spot but both guys have given up some BvP to some on the other side of the match-up. I’m kind of glad this is a non-main slate game but I do think it’s an interesting one to break down. Lane Thomas-Joey Meneses feel like a very interesting GPP mini-stack as Thomas has hit Luzardo and Meneses is rolling at the plate.
WSH 5-star plays: Lane Thomas
4-star plays: Joey Meneses
GPP Note: Team ISO of .126 against LHPs.
MIA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Garrett Cooper, Jorge Soler
GPP Note: Team ISO of .135 against RHPs.
Seattle Mariners (-145) @ Boston Red Sox
Pitchers:
Mariners – Luis Castillo
Red Sox – Nick Pivetta
Rundown:
This game opened with a total of 9. This is a really odd game for me because we get Castillo, who’s a legit ace, in a game with a 9 total. I know Castillo has struggled a bit over his last few starts but I feel like he’s decent enough to not get hit hard. Seattle’s offense, aside from last night, has been pretty cold. I always love picking on Pivetta so I will certainly stack SEA but it’s not an easy stack to just plug in with how they are or aren’t swinging it.
SEA 5-star plays: Jarred Kelenic
4-star plays: Cal Raleigh, Ty France
GPP Note: Team ISO of just .148 against RHPs.
BOS 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Rafael Devers, Justin Turner
GPP Note: Team ISO of .187 against RHPs.
Tampa Bay Rays @ New York Mets (-160)
Pitchers:
Rays – Yonny Chirinos
Mets – Justin Verlander
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. I always fall for Chirinos but I will not do that tonight. Bold call considering the Mets offense has been brutally cold. I just don’t think we can trust him to be strong enough as his K numbers have disappeared. Verlander has looked solid but he hasn’t faced a potent offense yet. I respect him enough to not want to go nuts and fully stack against him but the Rays offense has been so damn good that I have to get mini-stack exposure.
TB 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Josh Lowe, Taylor Walls
GPP Note: Team ISO of .226 against RHPs.
NYM 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Starling Marte, Francisco Alvarez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .129 against RHPs.
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Atlanta Braves (-115) @ Texas Rangers
Pitchers:
Braves – Jared Shuster
Rangers – Dane Dunning
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9.5. Dunning has actually been strong as both an RP and an SP so far this season. He gets a tall task taking on Atlanta tonight so he’s not really in play for me but maybe it knocks ATL down my list. I was shocked to see such a strong total. Shuster has NOT been good at the MLB level and Texas is a team that I have enjoyed stacking when facing weaker LHPs so far in 2023.
ATL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Ronald Acuna, Orlando Arcia
GPP Note: Team ISO of .175 against RHPs.
TEX 5-star plays: Jonah Heim
4-star plays: Josh Jung, Marcus Semien
GPP Note: Team ISO of .163 against LHPs.
Cincinnati Reds @ Colorado Rockies (-130)
Pitchers:
Reds – Brandon Williamson
Rockies – Chase Anderson
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 12.5. Williamson is making his MLB debut but it comes in Coors after struggling at AAA to begin the 2023 season. That seems like a bad combination but I hope he enjoys himself and does well. Anderson keeps bouncing around but suddenly finds himself starting a game in 2023. I trust the CIN bats a bit more right now but COL has a few guys that could take advantage of the rookie.
CIN 5-star plays: Jonathan India, Jake Fraley
4-star plays: Nick Senzel, Matt McLain
GPP Note: Team ISO of .134 against RHPs.
COL 5-star plays: Kris Bryant
4-star plays: Randal Grichuk
GPP Note: Team ISO of .139 against LHPs.
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Detroit Tigers (-125)
Pitchers:
Pirates – Luis Ortiz
Tigers – Michael Lorenzen
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. I will be honest, I am EXTREMELY glad that this game isn’t on the main slate. Lorenzen has actually thrown the ball extremely well over his last couple of starts and the Pirates offense has hit a brick wall. The issue I have is that the Tigers aren’t very good either but Ortiz looked lost in his season debut. There is a shot at a bounce back performance from him today but I don’t really want to rely on either of these teams do make me money.
PIT 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Andrew McCutchen
GPP Note: Team ISO of .158 against RHPs.
DET 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Riley Greene
GPP Note: Team ISO of .113 against RHPs.
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Milwaukee Brewers @ St Louis Cardinals (-165)
Pitchers:
Brewers – Wade Miley
Cardinals – Jordan Montgomery
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. I love targeting the Brewers with LHPs right now so we will go back to Montgomery against them. He was our key play the first time he faced them this season. The Cardinals bats are heating up quite a bit and there’s a lot to like in this match-up as they have smacked Miley in terms of BvP. There are a few MIL bats that could surprise tonight but I’d rather keep them as one-offs in my pool.
MIL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Joey Wiemer, William Contreras
GPP Note: Team ISO of .130 against LHPs.
STL 5-star plays: Nolan Arenado, Paul Goldschmidt
4-star plays: Tommy Edman, Willson Contreras
GPP Note: Team ISO of .155 against LHPs.
Chicago Cubs @ Houston Astros (-165)
Pitchers:
Cubs – Justin Steele
Astros – Cristian Javier
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. My dude Justin Steele taking the mound tonight! You know I’m definitely on him but I wish his recent trends were a little stronger. Javier has 35 Ks over his last 24.2 innings of work. He has an HR issue that could always bite him but he’s been so good after starting the season out a little slowly. Swanson has gotten him for a couple of HRs in previous match-ups. I am looking forward to the Steele vs Alvarez match-up.
CHC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Dansby Swanson, Christopher Morel
GPP Note: Team ISO of .146 against RHPs.
HOU 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jeremy Pena, Yordan Alvarez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .164 against LHPs.
Arizona Diamondbacks (-140) @ Oakland Athletics
Pitchers:
D’Backs – Tommy Henry
A’s – Kyle Muller
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. Oh man, what a conundrum we have. Henry is not a very strong SP but he’s been decent the last couple of starts, but without strikeout upside. The OAK offense is pretty damn weak overall so who is going to win that match-up? I much prefer the Arizona side against Muller. If this game was in Arizona, I would love the spot even more with the potential power against LHPs on display.
ARI 5-star plays: Evan Longoria
4-star plays: Gabriel Moreno, Christian Walker
GPP Note: Team ISO of .146 against LHPs.
OAK 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Carlos Perez, Brent Rooker
GPP Note: Team ISO of .158 against LHPs.
Philadelphia Phillies @ San Francisco Giants (EVEN)
Pitchers:
Phillies – Zack Wheeler
Giants – Alex Cobb
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. This is a very intriguing game for pitching, to end the slate. Wheeler has been a guy I have faded much of this season but there’s a lot of K upside in this match-up. That K upside does come with some HR volatility but this ballpark should help. Cobb is capable of shutting just about anybody down so maybe we have to include him in our plans for the night. Conforto is hot at the plate right now and if this game was in Philly, I’d be all about him as a Dinger call.
PHI 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Bryce Harper, JT Realmuto
GPP Note: Team ISO of .158 against RHPs.
SF 5-star plays: Michael Conforto
4-star plays: Casey Schmitt
GPP Note: Team ISO of .204 against RHPs.
Stacks of the Day: Main Slate
- Texas Rangers
- St Louis Cardinals
- Arizona Diamondbacks
MLB Dinger of the Day – Nolan Arenado, STL
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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