Full Slate Breakdown for MLB DFS 5/13:
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My Take on a Consistent MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start an MLB slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target, but gives you a holistic look at the slate as well. Breaking down pitching also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the MLB Carnage Report this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the three pitchers that jumped out to me at first glance, good or bad.
- Joe Ryan
- Sandy Alcantara
- Bryse Miller
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Chicago Cubs @ Minnesota Twins (-170)
Pitchers:
Cubs – Hayden Wesneski
Twins – Joe Ryan
Rundown:
This game opened with a total of 7.5. The Twins bats are ice cold right now so the only position I am considering is the pitcher’s mound in this one. Wesneski becomes viable due to the Twins’ struggles. Ryan should be fairly popular as a big time favorite. He has really taken a leap forward to help lead the Twins to having what has been the best starting rotation in baseball. Now if only they could figure out the other spots.
CHC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Christopher Morel
GPP Note: Team ISO of .148 against RHPs.
MIN 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Max Kepler, Alex Kirilloff
GPP Note: Team ISO of .167 against RHPs.
Kansas City Royals @ Milwaukee Brewers (-165)
Pitchers:
Royals – Zack Greinke
Brewers – Adrian Houser
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. We should definitely see some runs put up with these two guys on the mound. I really don’t understand how Greinke is still leading a rotation based on the fact that he throws like 85 MPH at this point. Houser is going to allow plenty of contact as he’s an extreme ground ball guy who isn’t dominant. The one thing that works out well for the SPs is that neither offense is a juggernaut, by any means.
KC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Bobby Witt, Nick Pratto
GPP Note: Team ISO of .149 against RHPs.
MIL 5-star plays: Christian Yelich
4-star plays: Willy Adames
GPP Note: Team ISO of .157 against RHPs.
Houston Astros @ Chicago White Sox (-125)
Pitchers:
Astros – Brandon Bielak
White Sox – Dylan Cease
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. Will the real Dylan Cease please stand up? At this point, I just have to give up on Cease until he rediscovers his 2022 form. He’s giving up far more contact than I expected while also dealing with a walks issue. Bielak is capable of being solid as the Astros deal with SP injuries and he gets a team that has struggled for much of the 2023 season so far. Robert is red hot at the plate so he makes a great one-off option.
HOU 5-star plays: Kyle Tucker
4-star plays: Yordan Alvarez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .115 against RHPs.
CWS 5-star plays: Luis Robert
4-star plays: Gavin Sheets
GPP Note: Team ISO of .140 against RHPs.
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Baltimore Orioles (-160)
Pitchers:
Pirates – Roansy Contreras
Orioles – Tyler Wells
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. The Orioles have stalled out a bit from an explosive offense standpoint but I never count them out against any SP at this point. Contreras certainly has talent but he’s far from consistent. The Pirates have definitely hit their slide, as we predicted they would. Despite some of the young guys coming up, this is still a team that’s closer to 65 wins than it is to a .500 ball club by the end of the season.
PIT 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Ke’Bryan Hayes
GPP Note: Team ISO of .173 against RHPs.
BAL 5-star plays: Anthony Santander
4-star plays: Austin Hays
GPP Note: Team ISO of .155 against RHPs.
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Atlanta Braves @ Toronto Blue Jays (-125)
Pitchers:
Braves – Bryce Elder
Blue Jays – Jose Berrios
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9.5. We have a very interesting match-up as both offenses are obviously extremely dangerous. The Braves were shut out by Bassitt last night so I feel like they are about to destroy Berrios. The issue we have is that Berrios has been dominant at home so far this season and he’s capable of shutting just about anybody down. Elder is hit harder by RHBs but the LHBs of the Blue Jays are the ones swinging it the best right now.
ATL 5-star plays: Ronald Acuna
4-star plays: Ozzie Albies, Matt Olson
GPP Note: Team ISO of .178 against RHPs.
TOR 5-star plays: Bo Bichette
4-star plays: Brandon Belt, Daulton Varsho
GPP Note: Team ISO of .166 against RHPs.
New York Mets (-145) @ Washington Nationals
Pitchers:
Mets – Joey Lucchesi
Nationals – Trevor Williams
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. I don’t have a lot of positive things to say about this game. The Mets offense continues to underwhelm but they keep facing guys that they should do damage against. Williams certainly isn’t going to dominate them, is he? Lucchesi started his 2023 season with a gem but has been pretty ass since then. One of those, “since then”, starts came against this WSH team and he wasn’t very strong. Just an overall blah game for me.
NYM 5-star plays: Brandon Nimmo
4-star plays: Jeff McNeil, Brett Baty
GPP Note: Team ISO of .135 against RHPs.
WSH 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Lane Thomas, Joey Meneses
GPP Note: Team ISO of .127 against LHPs.
St Louis Cardinals @ Boston Red Sox (-130)
Pitchers:
Cardinals – Steven Matz
Red Sox – Chris Sale
Rundown:
This game opened with a total of 10. I have no idea what to do with Boston today. They aren’t all that great against LHPs right now but Matz isn’t all that great, period. The Red Sox numbers are a bit skewed vs LHPs because of the start by Adam Duvall and the ISO by Yu Chang, both are on the IL. The overall lineup can be LH heavy as far as main guys goes so maybe they struggle in comparison to their projected team total? Sale can be lights out or he could allow a bunch of baserunners. The Cardinals have some guys that have tormented LHPs in the past.
STL 5-star plays: Nolan Arenado
4-star plays: Paul Goldschmidt, Tommy Edman
GPP Note: Team ISO of just .159 against LHPs.
BOS 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Rafael Devers, Justin Turner
GPP Note: Team ISO of .151 against LHPs.
Tampa Bay Rays (-135) @ New York Yankees
Pitchers:
Rays – Shane McClanahan
Yankees – Nestor Cortes
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. The Rays have absolutely dismantled LHPs so far in 2023 and they have had some extra-base hit success against Cortes as 13 of their 24 hits have gone for extra-bases. This match-up feels so lopsided which worries me because when things feel like that in baseball, they tend to go the other way. McClanahan might be my favorite pitcher in ALL of baseball at this point. He has allowed 2 runs or less in every start this season.
TB 5-star plays: Randy Arozarena, Harold Ramirez
4-star plays: Yandy Diaz, Isaac Paredes
GPP Note: Team ISO of .263 against LHPs.
NYY 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Gleyber Torres, Harrison Bader
GPP Note: Team ISO of .181 against LHPs.
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Texas Rangers (-135) @ Oakland Athletics
Pitchers:
Rangers – Jon Gray
Athletics – JP Sears
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. Did you know that the Rangers are averaging a Run for every 6.1 PAs against LHPs this season? They just seem to face LHPs on back-to-back days quite often. I will share some stats in chat later, so make sure you check it out! Gray should be popular and while I can’t really argue against it, he wasn’t very good in his first start against OAK this season. He is coming off of his best start, dominating the Mariners.
TEX 5-star plays: Jonah Heim
4-star plays: Josh Jung, Marcus Semien
GPP Note: Team ISO of .170 against LHPs.
OAK 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: JJ Bleday, Brent Rooker
GPP Note: Team ISO of .152 against RHPs.
Philadelphia Phillies (-165) @ Colorado Rockies
Pitchers:
Phillies – Ranger Suarez
Rockies – Ryan Feltner
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 11.5. A Coors game on the slate and a weak ass pitcher facing a powerful lineup. Seems like a spot we should be interested in (Phillies). The Philly lineup woke up a bit as the game went on last night. Suarez looked solid in his 3 rehab starts but do we really want to trust him in Coors? I don’t think we can go there so logically we should be considering some COL mini-stacks.
PHI 5-star plays: Bryce Harper
4-star plays: Nick Castellanos, Kyle Schwarber
GPP Note: Team ISO of .160 against RHPs.
COL 5-star plays: Kris Bryant
4-star plays: Randal Grichuk
GPP Note: Team ISO of .134 against LHPs.
Cincinnati Reds @ Miami Marlins (-195)
Pitchers:
Reds – Derek Law/Nick Lodolo?
Marlins – Sandy Alcantara
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7. This one is all about who’s on the mound for me. Alcantara keeps showing flashes of his Cy Young self but his consistency has disappeared. He gets a weak CIN offense but it’s an offense that’s been heating up of late. Lodolo has not looked great this year but he flashes big time K upside and this match-up isn’t a difficult one, especially if he finds a way to keep Soler from going deep.
CIN 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jonathan India
GPP Note: Team ISO of .135 against RHPs.
MIA 5-star plays: Jorge Soler
4-star plays: NONE
GPP Note: Team ISO of .134 against LHPs.
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Seattle Mariners (-178) @ Detroit Tigers
Pitchers:
Mariners – Bryse Miller
Tigers – Alex Faedo
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. I assume that Miller is going to be wildly popular which is a bit worrisome given that he’s making just his 3rd MLB start. Miller has been absolutely dominant so far, holding hitters to a .103 average to go with a .128 slugging. I think we are about to see J-Rod break out and go on a heater over the next 10 days or so and I want to be early on the bandwagon for it. He’s a guy that can carry lineups to the money.
SEA 5-star plays: Ty France
4-star plays: Julio Rodriguez, Jarred Kelenic
GPP Note: Team ISO of .146 against RHPs.
DET 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Riley Greene
GPP Note: Team ISO of .116 against RHPs.
Los Angeles Angels (-125) @ Cleveland Guardians
Pitchers:
Angels – Reid Detmers
Guardians – Cal Quantrill
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. Quantrill has been pretty reverse-splitsy so far this season as RHBs are hitting .100 points higher with an OPS .120 points higher. He started out the season pretty roughly but has been solid the last 2 starts. Rosario is about the only one hitting for CLE right now, which isn’t saying much since he’s not all that dangerous of a hitter at this point. Detmers keeps showcasing elite ability followed by extreme inconsistencies and mistakes in game. When will it all come together?
LAA 5-star plays: Mike Trout
4-star plays: Taylor Ward, Anthony Rendon
GPP Note: Team ISO of .165 against RHPs.
CLE 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jose Ramirez, Amed Rosario
GPP Note: Team ISO of .128 against LHPs.
San Francisco Giants @ Arizona Diamondbacks (-175)
Pitchers:
Giants – Anthony DeSclafani
D’Backs – Zac Gallen
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. If you take away the two guys below, the SF roster is just 6 for 57 against Gallen with 23 Ks. I like those numbers for Gallen despite the fact that the Giants have shown plenty of power against RHPs this season. DeSclafani has been solid so I don’t expect a ton out of ARI but I do always stack them as I love the upside of the lineup. I just wish Carroll wasn’t in such a huge slump right now.
SF 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Michael Conforto, Thairo Estrada
GPP Note: Team ISO of .214 against RHPs.
ARI 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Dominic Fletcher, Josh Rojas
GPP Note: Team ISO of .176 against RHPs.
San Diego Padres @ Los Angeles Dodgers (-155)
Pitchers:
Padres – Joe Musgrove
Dodgers – Julio Urias
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. Machado appears to be heating up and that comes at a time when he’s about to face an SP who he has 4 HRs against. Urias did a great job of shutting down the Padres in his last start, despite not having strong stuff. He allowed a ton of baserunners while striking out just 3. I wouldn’t be shocked with a big bounce back since he’s been dominant at home. I also could see the Padres getting to him for 4-5 runs. Musgrove was excellent against the Dodgers last week, after struggling over his first 2 starts of the season. Very interesting game here as I think both SPs AND both offenses are in play.
SD 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Manny Machado, Nelson Cruz
GPP Note: Team ISO of .171 against LHPs.
LAD 5-star plays: Freddie Freeman
4-star plays: David Peralta, Max Muncy
GPP Note: Team ISO of .220 against RHPs.
Stacks of the Day: Main Slate
- Philadelphia Phillies
- Milwaukee Brewers
- Colorado Rockies
MLB Dinger of the Day – Bryce Harper, Phillies
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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