Full Slate Breakdown for MLB DFS 5/10:
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My Take on a Consistent MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start an MLB slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target, but gives you a holistic look at the slate as well. Breaking down pitching also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the MLB Carnage Report this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the three pitchers that jumped out to me at first glance, good or bad.
- Clayton Kershaw
- Merrill Kelly
- Luis Castillo
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San Diego Padres @ Minnesota Twins (-130)
Pitchers:
Padres – Seth Lugo
Twins – Pablo Lopez
Rundown:
This game opened with a total of 8.5. Minnesota is hitting just .155 with an OPS of .537 over the last week (6 games). They are on the struggle bus right now so it’s really shocking to see them as a favorite over the Padres. I understand that Lopez is a better SP than Lugo but they just can’t hit right now and Lopez has had some struggles recently. Probably a pretty good game to target the under on.
SD 5-star plays: Juan Soto
4-star plays: Manny Machado
GPP Note: Team ISO of .157 against RHPs.
MIN 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Max Kepler, Alex Kirilloff
GPP Note: Team ISO of .166 against RHPs.
Chicago White Sox (-130) @ Kansas City Royals
Pitchers:
White Sox – Lance Lynn
Royals – Brad Keller
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9.5. Both of these SPs have basically been ass this season. Shocking to see this SP match-up have the same total as last night’s that included Giolito who has been FAR better than Lynn. The three guys that I have listed below for KC are a combined 14 for 40 with 5 HRs against Lynn in their careers. You could add in Jackie Bradley Jr and his 4 for 9 with 2 HRs but relying on JBJ just doesn’t seem right to me.
CWS 5-star plays: Luis Robert
4-star plays: Andrew Vaughn
GPP Note: Team ISO of .146 against RHPs.
KC 5-star plays: Salvador Perez
4-star plays: Bobby Witt, Nick Pratto
GPP Note: Team ISO of .141 against RHPs.
Houston Astros (-125) @ Los Angeles Angels
Pitchers:
Astros – Cristian Javier
Angels – Griffin Canning
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9.5. Looking at the game total leaves me in a bit of shock. The game last night saw a ton of strikeouts and a total of 7.5. Javier is a pretty damn good pitcher himself, who has held LAA (the current roster) to just 5 hits in 44 ABs. The current roster is rocking a 42% K rate against him in their careers. That comes less than a day after they struck out roughly 1455 times against Valdez.
HOU 5-star plays: Yordan Alvarez
4-star plays: Alex Bregman, Kyle Tucker
GPP Note: Team ISO of .116 against RHPs.
LAA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Shohei Ohtani, Matt Thaiss
GPP Note: Team ISO of .166 against RHPs.
Tampa Bay Rays (-120) @ Baltimore Orioles
Pitchers:
Rays – Jalen Beeks/Yonny Chirinos
Orioles – Dean Kremer
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9.5. The overall BAL lineup has been struggling a bit recently so it’s kind of shocking to see a game total of 9.5 with TB being a very small favorite. Chirinos is better than he showed last time out against the Yankees. Kremer is coming off of a random great performance against an elite offense but I just don’t see how that carries over against this Tampa Bay offense.
TB 5-star plays: Randy Arozarena
4-star plays: Wander Franco, Brandon Lowe
GPP Note: Team ISO of .236 against RHPs.
BAL 5-star plays: Anthony Santander
4-star plays: Austin Hays
GPP Note: Team ISO of .157 against RHPs (Chirinos).
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Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies (EVEN)
Pitchers:
Blue Jays – Kevin Gausman
Phillies – Zack Wheeler
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. If we believe in BvP ONLY, the Phillies are in a spot to crush. Gausman is pretty damn close to elite but he is coming off of a random blowup game, which is actually his 2nd one of the season. Prior to last game he had struck out 11+ in 3 of 4 starts. I wouldn’t be shocked by a bounce back but I also wouldn’t be shocked if PHI hits 2 or 3 HRs in this one. Wheeler has given up 3+ runs in 3 of his last 4 starts, so that’s definitely concerning.
TOR 5-star plays: Bo Bichette
4-star plays: Brandon Belt, Vlad Guerrero
GPP Note: Team ISO of .166 against RHPs.
PHI 5-star plays: Bryce Harper
4-star plays: Nick Castellanos, Trea Turner
GPP Note: Team ISO of .162 against RHPs.
Washington Nationals @ San Francisco Giants (-150)
Pitchers:
Nationals – Josiah Gray
Giants – Sean Manaea
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. Oh man, Manaea against a weak offense, what could go wrong? Game total might be enough to push me off of Manaea (thankfully). Gray has given up just 11 runs in his last 6 starts and he gets the Giants when a bunch of their bats are scuffling right now. The ball does fly better in this park during the day but still, maybe Gray is the play over Manaea? I feel dirty considering it but here we are.
WSH 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Lane Thomas, Luis Garcia
GPP Note: Team ISO of .117 against LHPs.
SF 5-star plays: Thairo Estrada
4-star plays: LaMonte Wade, Blake Sabol
GPP Note: Team ISO of .209 against RHPs.
St Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs (-115)
Pitchers:
Cardinals – Jordan Montgomery
Cubs – Justin Steele
Rundown:
This game opened with a total of 8. My love of Justin Steele is going to outweigh my desire to play STL bats against LHPs. The Cubs have actually been pretty solid against LHPs this season but they are missing, most likely, 2 of their best hitters against LHPs in Gomes and Hoerner. They have just 3 HRs over the last week while they are striking out more than 10 times per game. Might just be one of my favorite games for pitchers, depending on the Wrigley weather this evening.
STL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Paul Goldschmidt, Tommy Edman
GPP Note: Team ISO of just .167 against LHPs.
CHC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Dansby Swanson, Seiya Suzuki
GPP Note: Team ISO of .176 against LHPs.
Boston Red Sox @ Atlanta Braves
Pitchers:
Red Sox – Brayan Bello
Braves – Undecided
Rundown:
We are waiting on the ATL SP plans. I am seeing some reports listing Jared Shuster as SP tonight. I will look at Boston as though they are facing an LHP but this particular LHP has struggled at the MLB level with nearly twice as many BBs as Ks. The Braves are in a great spot as Bello has really struggled to get outs consistently at the MLB level. They are loaded with power from both sides of the plate so I wouldn’t be shocked by a few HRs.
BOS 5-star plays: Masataka Yoshida
4-star plays: Rafael Devers, Justin Turner
GPP Note: Team ISO of .153 against LHPs.
ATL 5-star plays: Matt Olson
4-star plays: Ozzie Albies, Ronald Acuna
GPP Note: Team ISO of .184 against RHPs.
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Texas Rangers @ Seattle Mariners (-190)
Pitchers:
Rangers – Dane Dunning
Mariners – Luis Castillo
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7. The Seattle pitching has absolutely dominated in this series, which is a bit of a shock considering how many runs the Rangers had been putting up coming into this week. Castillo is their ace but damn does he have a tall order in trying to replicate what Gilbert and Kirby were able to do. Dunning threw 72 pitches in his first start so he should push to 90 today. He looked great in that start and had looked pretty strong out of the bullpen prior.
TEX 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Leody Taveras, Marcus Semien
GPP Note: Team ISO of .178 against RHPs.
SEA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: JP Crawford, Ty France
GPP Note: Team ISO of .152 against RHPs.
Colorado Rockies @ Pittsburgh Pirates (-145)
Pitchers:
Rockies – Antonio Senzatela
Pirates – Rich Hill
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. The PIT offense is really struggling right now, which was predicted by myself and probably by a lot of people to be honest. I like the top part of the COL lineup against LHPs, even away from home. Hill might be a somewhat popular option but right now I would lean towards the fade with a COL mini-stack in my hand builds. Not really an exciting game overall.
COL 5-star plays: Kris Bryant
4-star plays: Charlie Blackmon, Randal Grichuk
GPP Note: Team ISO of .135 against LHPs.
PIT 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Bryan Reynolds, Jack Suwinksi
GPP Note: Team ISO of .168 against RHPs.
New York Mets (-160) @ Cincinnati Reds
Pitchers:
Mets – Justin Verlander
Reds – Hunter Greene
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. Verlander wasn’t sharp in his 2023 debut, taking a 2-0 loss. The overall stat line wasn’t bad at all but he did give up 2 solo HRs to the damn Tigers. Greene has big time K ability but that comes with HR issues. He could strike out 12 today but he also could give up 4 HRs and I wouldn’t be shocked. A couple of the CIN bats have been red hot the last week while most of the NYM lineup has struggled.
NYM 5-star plays: Pete Alonso
4-star plays: Brandon Nimmo
GPP Note: Team ISO of .143 against RHPs.
CIN 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jonathan India, TJ Friedl
GPP Note: Team ISO of .127 against RHPs.
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Detroit Tigers @ Cleveland Guardians (-125)
Pitchers:
Tigers – Eduardo Rodriguez
Guardians – Peyton Battenfield
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. The team ISOs below are pretty ugly in this game, so we have to be all about the pitching. Rodriguez has been spectacular over his last 5 starts while Battenfield is coming off of a great outing against the Twins. Neither team packs a whole lot of punch. The Tigers actually have the hotter offense right now, which is really saying something. Greene could be a 5-Star play with how he has been at the plate.
DET 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Riley Greene, Spencer Torkelson
GPP Note: Team ISO of .118 against RHPs.
CLE 5-star plays: Jose Ramirez
4-star plays: Amed Rosario
GPP Note: Team ISO of .121 against LHPs.
Oakland Athletics @ New York Yankees (-225)
Pitchers:
A’s – Kyle Muller
Yankees – Jhony Brito
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9.5. Brito being a severe reverse splits SP at the MLB level is making it tough to figure out where OAK’s runs come from. Rooker is the obvious choice and maybe J.Diaz follows up his big game last night but I hate chasing 3 HR games. I actually wouldn’t be shocked if Bleday goes deep the day after I am all about him. Muller has given up an HR in 5 straight starts and has allowed 4+ runs in 4 of those 5.
OAK 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Brent Rooker, Esteury Ruiz
GPP Note: Team ISO of .148 against RHPs.
NYY 5-star plays: Harrison Bader
4-star plays: Aaron Judge, DJ LeMahieu
GPP Note: Team ISO of .175 against LHPs.
Miami Marlins @ Arizona Diamondbacks (-145)
Pitchers:
Marlins – Edward Cabrera
D’Backs – Merrill Kelly
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. Kelly has been a bit reverse splits when it comes to power allowed this season. That’s not great against Soler but he hasn’t been destroyed by RHBs and he’s going to end up being one of my favorite SPs today, I think. Cabrera has 20 Ks over his last 10 innings of work but he has allowed some HRs and walks to happen. I think there’s a ton of upside in him but the volatility is really annoying.
MIA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jorge Soler, Jesus Sanchez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .127 against RHPs.
ARI 5-star plays: Ketel Marte
4-star plays: Christian Walker
GPP Note: Team ISO of .182 against RHPs.
Los Angeles Dodgers (-165) @ Milwaukee Brewers
Pitchers:
Dodgers – Clayton Kershaw
Brewers – Wade Miley
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. Kershaw against a team that has struggled against LHPs this season seems too good to be true. The Dodgers just did some damage against an LHP and now they face Miley, who has been far better than expected but he hasn’t exactly racked up any Ks and I hate guys who allow so much contact. The current MIL roster has a combined 10 hits against Kershaw with 9 of those being from Yelich. Yelich is 9 for 26 with 9 Ks against him while the rest is a combined 1 for 37 with 23 Ks.
LAD 5-star plays: Mookie Betts
4-star plays: Chris Taylor, Freddie Freeman
GPP Note: Team ISO of .197 against LHPs.
MIL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Christian Yelich
GPP Note: Team ISO of .115 against LHPs.
Stacks of the Day: Main Slate
- New York Yankees
- Los Angeles Dodgers
- Houston Astros
MLB Dinger of the Day – Mookie Betts
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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