When it comes to winning MLB DFS tournaments, there are just so many to choose from. Contest selection is everything, and a true expert knows how to cater his lineups to the contest he/she is playing. Let’s focus on single-entry (maybe some 3-max) type lineup construction in this short, sweet strategy article for daily fantasy baseball.
Most players in 2024 are of the recreational variety…they play for fun. And, most recreational players are going to simply click the lobby in Fanduel or Draftkings looking for the biggest top prize to chase. I mean who doesn’t want to turn $10 into $100,000 or more?! Hopefully, all of us.
However, these contests can be littered with “pros” and sharp players that essentially stack the deck against a recreational player giving him/her little to no hope over the long run. The top-heavy pay structures have been a topic of discussion lately in our DFS Army VIP Discord chat rooms because the consensus strategy to building a winner in these contest requires a very “ride or die” approach.
Often times these MLB DFS tournaments allow up to 150 entries per player, too. If you enter them one lineup at a time, it can take a literal lifetime to actually see any return on investment. However, that’s not to say one shouldn’t enter these contests at all. Just know your contest and your odds. You are playing the lottery.
Apr 12, 2023; St. Petersburg, Florida, USA; at Tropicana Field. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports
What MLB DFS Contests To Enter
On the other hand, smaller-field and single-entry tournaments (also GPPs) require a slightly different lineup construction than the super top-heavy, large field mass-multi-entry (MME) contests. The score to win these smaller field contests is lower typically, for one. The pay structures are typically flatter and reward the “close but no cigar” lineup better. And, no one (not even a pro) can enter more than once. You aren’t competing against some guy and his 150 lineups. Everyone has the same chance to win, barring any skill disadvantage.
You immediately have a better chance at turning a profit in the short run. You also have time to improve your skill at a lower disadvantage. Let’s dig into some key strategy points commonly found in more optimal lineup builds…
Correlation is KING!
It’s not 2015 anymore. I’m under the assumption you know stacking is king because inter-correlated players from the same lineup lead to winning scores. You know….stacking! Oddly enough, though, recreational players still don’t stack hard enough, or often enough in MLB DFS contests. They just don’t.
There is also a common misunderstanding that the smaller the field the less you need to correlate. In single-entry (SE) contests, players often enter something a lot closer to a “cash game lineup” than a truly correlated lineup capable of winning a baseball tournament. Yes, even in 2024, we still have an edge over other players!
Because you don’t need quite as high a score to win smaller-field, single-entry contests, you don’t need to take as much risk…they say. Well, that methodology has some logic for sure, but you can now approach these contests a little more exploitatively and take advantage of the more recreational player’s inherent fear of losing by going for the win yourself.
Need help finding the right plays? Our MLB DFS coaches put you on the plays fast! Core plays in blue and confidence ratings with player notes tell you who we are on and why. All included with our daily cheatsheets.
Flip The Script
In order to exploit the more casual MLB DFS player, we need to use his/her method against him/her by doing the opposite! Since we don’t need such high, near-perfect scores, we can actually stack our lineups MORE. Play a full 4×4 stack of two teams on Fanduel, and employ a full 5×3 stack on Draftkings. You are more worried about capturing the offenses that have big nights than you are worrying about the 1-off players around the league having big nights. If you simply get two teams right, in the smaller fields, you often have enough to turn a profit due to the lower scoring contest. That is a HUGE advantage for you right off the hop.
If you can hit every 1-off play perfectly, you can beat any stacked lineup. The results in the large multi-entry contests do bear that out. Stacking is your safety net, as it’s easier to hit two offenses than 9 individual players in a given night. But, in these smaller field tournaments, the stack is what gobbles up all the easy points (especially on smaller slates).
Another word about correlation: Most people think the correlation is for hits, runs, RBIs, etc. And, while this definitely helps, the ACTUAL CORRELATION is in the increased at bats for an offense up and down the whole lineup. If a team scores 3-4 runs, an average number of at bats for the game is around 30-33. If a team scores 8+ runs, that number typically jumps to 40+. That is a 25% increase in a team’s at bats. 25% more opportunity for anyone in that lineup to score more fantasy points. Most importantly, 25% more opportunity to hit that home run that skews MLB DFS scoring so heavily in our favor. Hits and RBIs are nice, but home runs are king.
Imagine giving an NBA DFS player 25% more minutes. Imagine giving a NFL DFS quarterback 25% more throws, a receiver more catches in the red zone. See my point? Opportunity is actually king. And, more at bats delivers opportunity for your stack (all of them) than your opponents failing to see the bigger picture.
Ownership in MLB DFS Tournaments
Another exploitation we can employ in smaller field, single-entry tournaments is how we look at ownership projections. The common misconception is “smaller fields don’t require as much leverage to win, so we don’t need to be as different.”
Single-entry contests will often have higher ownership on the common, popular players (also called “chalk”) than the larger field, multi-entry contests. Some of this is fear of loss (you only get one shot after all), but a lot of this is the misconception we don’t need to focus as much on leverage because we don’t need as high a score or to beat as many people. Many players simply enter their cash game lineups “just in case” they get lucky. And, again, we can exploit that behavior for a massive advantage and potential profit!
Simply avoid the highest owned stacks. Duh, amirite! Play “slightly” off the radar. Since ownership really concentrates on the “best” plays in single-entry contests, it’s not as hard to get different. We can play very close to the chalk and actually wind up quite different. The smaller fields really tend to overplay the popular plays of the night. MLB DFS is so inherently volatile, we have very similar chances of our guy going off at the same frequency, but at a MUCH lower ownership creating a substantial edge over the field when their play fails.
Did you know the most common outcome for ANY daily fantasy baseball player? It’s a 0. Yep, goose egg, zip, zilch, 0 for 4, wear the collar, buddy. A zero. It’s nice to see Mike Trout post that donut when he is owned at 40% and you don’t have him. You take Aaron Judge or Bryce Harper instead at 13% that night and your guy hits one to Brooklyn (or cracks the Liberty Bell)….you just grabbed 18+ Fanduel points and shot over the Trout players in your contest. These swings in scoring, and prize money, make that gamble one worth taking repeatedly.
Just avoid the highest of chalk, and you are doing it right for smaller field tournaments. Oh, and remember…………stack HARDER. 4×4 on Fanduel and 5×3 on Draftkings where you can considering salary. Only come off those formations when you absolutely have to…or the slate is smaller (subject for another article).
You Don’t Need To Be A Pro
Employing these simple concepts, using some exploitation, and keeping within a budget to survive the variance of MLB DFS is enough to turn your game around.
But, if you need more strategy, more advice, more discussion like this, more tools, more projection-driven help building lineups, you need us. No one does it like DFS Army, and no one has the track record we have.
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