Full Slate Breakdown for MLB DFS 4/30:
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My Take on a Consistent MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start an MLB slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target, but gives you a holistic look at the slate as well. Breaking down pitching also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the MLB Carnage Report this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the three pitchers that jumped out to me at first glance, good or bad.
- Nick Lodolo
- Justin Steele
- Sonny Gray
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Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins (-220)
Pitchers:
Royals – Brady Singer
Twins – Sonny Gray or Bailey Ober
Rundown:
This game opened with a total of 7.5. Gray has been sensational to begin the season so I can only imagine that continues in a plus match-up. At some point we should be expecting a bit of regression but this doesn’t feel like the spot for that. Singer hasn’t been as sharp as I would have thought and the Twins lineup matches up pretty well here so I would imagine they carry a decent chunk of ownership. A few of the MIN bats are waking up (Kepler, Miranda).
KC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Vinnie Pasquantino
GPP Note: Team ISO of .108 against RHPs.
MIN 5-star plays: Byron Buxton, Jorge Polanco
4-star plays: Carlos Correa, Joey Gallo
GPP Note: Team ISO of .179 against RHPs.
Seattle Mariners @ Toronto Blue Jays (-190)
Pitchers:
Mariners – Marco Gonzales
Blue Jays – Chris Bassitt
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9.5. I am shocked at the lack of power by the Blue Jays against LHPs so far this season. They actually have more SBs against LHPs than they have HRs. Bassitt has been decent since his atrocious first start and now he might get the Mariners without Julio. In my head, I just see Toronto beating up Gonzales but that whole lack of power thing is annoying to think about.
SEA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Ty France, JP Crawford
GPP Note: Team ISO of .144 against RHPs.
TOR 5-star plays: Matt Chapman
4-star plays: Bo Bichette, Whit Merrifield
GPP Note: Team ISO of .112 against LHPs.
New York Yankees (-125) @ Texas Rangers
Pitchers:
Yankees – Nestor Cortes
Rangers – Martin Perez
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. We get a match-up of LHPs who get to face lineups that are weakest against LHPs. Each team has a guy that I think is a great one-off option (both are 5-star options below). Nestor hasn’t been as sharp as we would have hoped but that’s ok as he has been steady. These guys kind of mirror each other so it’s going to be fun to watch even if the Yankees lineup looks like a pile of…
NYY 5-star plays: Gleyber Torres
4-star plays: DJ LeMahieu
GPP Note: Team ISO of .122 against LHPs.
TEX 5-star plays: Josh Jung
4-star plays: Marcus Semien, Nathaniel Lowe
GPP Note: Team ISO of .141 against LHPs.
Cleveland Guardians @ Boston Red Sox (-125)
Pitchers:
Guardians – Logan Allen
Red Sox – Chris Sale
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. This game is going to be extremely interesting because I feel like the under is in play. Logan Allen looked great in his MLB debut and while the Red Sox have a decent team ISO against LHPs, they are missing their best bats against them. The Guardians don’t strike out a ton but Sale can get the Ks against anybody but he can also go out and not strike a single guy out. I don’t love stacking the Guardians because they lack power top to bottom.
CLE 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jose Ramirez, Josh Bell
GPP Note: Team ISO of .130 against LHPs.
BOS 5-star plays: Rafael Devers
4-star plays: Jarren Duran
GPP Note: Team ISO of .152 against LHPs.
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St Louis Cardinals @ Los Angeles Dodgers (-145)
Pitchers:
Cardinals – Jake Woodford
Dodgers – Noah Syndergaard
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 10. I am not sure I have ever seen a double-digit game total in Dodger Stadium. I understand it’s the Dodgers but I honestly don’t see why the total is quite so high. Syndergaard isn’t spectacular by any means but the Cardinals aren’t destroying the baseball at the moment either. I am going to have to dig in deeper as the morning progresses because this one has me confused. I know you are sitting there like well, both pitchers suck so that’s why. You may be right in that regard but something just isn’t sitting right with me.
STL 5-star plays: Nolan Gorman
4-star plays: Paul Goldschmidt, Paul DeJong
GPP Note: Team ISO of .149 against RHPs.
LAD 5-star plays: Max Muncy
4-star plays: Freddie Freeman, Mookie Betts
GPP Note: Team ISO of .225 against RHPs.
Arizona Diamondbacks (-130) @ Colorado Rockies
Pitchers:
D’Backs – Ryne Nelson
Rockies – Austin Gomber
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 12. Another Coors affair for us to target today. I am very interested in the D’Backs but really wishing Carroll didn’t get hurt last night. I can’t believe how much the COL bats have struggled, despite having some decent names in the top half of the lineup. Nelson isn’t an arm that should scare us away but I have a hard time wanting to go overweight on the Rockies right now.
ARI 5-star plays: Christian Walker, Ketel Marte
4-star plays: Evan Longoria, Josh Rojas
GPP Note: Team ISO of .135 against LHPs.
COL 5-star plays: Kris Bryant
4-star plays: Jurickson Profar
GPP Note: Team ISO of .126 against RHPs.
Chicago Cubs (-178) @ Miami Marlins
Pitchers:
Cubs – Justin Steele
Marlins – Bryan Hoeing
Rundown:
This game opened with a total of 8. This is the Sunday morning, stand-alone game on Peacock. I am annoyed at that because I am a leader of the Justin Steele fan club! Hoeing has been hit hard at the MLB level by RHBs. If you are playing the showdown or a slate that has this game, I wouldn’t go too heavy on it expecting offense. I do hope the Cubs load up on RHBs to attack Hoeing, which would mean a guy like Velazquez has nice upside.
CHC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Yan Gomes, Nelson Velazquez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .162 against RHPs.
MIA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jorge Soler
GPP Note: Team ISO of just .132 against LHPs.
Baltimore Orioles (-160) @ Detroit Tigers
Pitchers:
Orioles – Kyle Bradish
Tigers – Spencer Turnbull
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. I am tempted to say that this game goes under the 8.5 total. Turnbull is one of those guys that can surprise and go 6 or 7 while allowing just 1 or 2 runs. Bradish is very hit or miss at this point. He has the stuff to come out and dominate a lineup or he could come out and get wrecked in the first 3 innings and force the BAL bullpen to exhaust itself. I am leaning towards Bradish puts up a strong game, since we know how weak the DET lineup is.
BAL 5-star plays: Adley Rutschman
4-star plays: Jorge Mateo, Austin Hays
GPP Note: Team ISO of .158 against LHPs.
DET 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Nick Maton
GPP Note: Team ISO of .112 against RHPs.
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Philadelphia Phillies @ Houston Astros (-145)
Pitchers:
Phillies – Bailey Falter
Astros – Jose Urquidy
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. What a Sunday night game we get as we get to watch the pitching abilities of Urquidy and Falter! Ok, Ok, I am just kidding a bit as I think we actually see more offense than pitching ability. Neither SP has been sharp in their starts to begin the 2023 season. While each offense has been really inconsistent, they do get to face the handed pitcher that they’ve been best against.
PHI 5-star plays: Kyle Schwarber
4-star plays: Brandon Marsh, Bryson Stott
GPP Note: Team ISO of .173 against RHPs.
HOU 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Yordan Alvarez, Jeremy Pena
GPP Note: Team ISO of .160 against LHPs.
Pittsburgh Pirates (-145) @ Washington Nationals
Pitchers:
Pirates – Johan Oviedo
Nationals – Josiah Gray
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. I am seeing some reports of some potential weather issues which is frustrating. Both of these SPs have had very strong starts this season. Gray is just 1-4 but he has an ERA under 3. His big issue is that he can give up HRs in bunches and that’s great for DFS purposes. Oviedo is coming off of a rough start against a tough LAD squad but he had been absolutely rolling prior to that. He’s a very interesting GPP option should the weather cooperate.
PIT 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Bryan Reynolds, Jack Suwinski
GPP Note: Team ISO of .197 against RHPs.
WSH 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Luis Garcia, Victor Robles
GPP Note: Team ISO of .105 against LHPs.
Atlanta Braves (-160) @ New York Mets
Pitchers:
Braves – Spencer Strider
Mets – Tylor Megill
Rundown:
This game has been PPD already.
ATL 5-star plays: Matt Olson
4-star plays: Ozzie Albies, Austin Riley
GPP Note: Team ISO of .189 against RHPs.
NYM 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Francisco Lindor, Brandon Nimmo
GPP Note: Team ISO of .138 against RHPs.
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Los Angeles Angels @ Milwaukee Brewers (-125)
Pitchers:
Angels – Jose Suarez
Brewers – Colin Rea
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. Man what a conundrum for me today. Suarez has been an absolute dumpster fire but the Brewers have, generally, not been able to hit LHPs. I know they scored some runs last night but the Angels defense did Reid Detmers no favors. Rea has been a pretty strong reverse splits guy to begin the season and I am telling you, that is not a good thing when facing the Angels.
LAA 5-star plays: Mike Trout
4-star plays: Hunter Renfroe, Brandon Drury
GPP Note: Team ISO of .166 against RHPs.
MIL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: William Contreras
GPP Note: Team ISO of .140 against LHPs.
Cincinnati Reds (-155) @ Oakland Athletics
Pitchers:
Reds – Nick Lodolo
Athletics – Ken Waldichuk
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. Lodolo always makes my list of plays for pitching as his upside is really attractive. He gets a plus match-up after Greene struck out double-digits yesterday. The Reds aren’t all that scary against LHPs but Waldichuk hasn’t been great. What’s going to give in that match-up? I lean more towards the CIN bats doing damage than Waldichuk throwing a gem but it’s close.
CIN 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Kevin Newman, Tyler Stephenson
GPP Note: Team ISO of .121 against LHPs.
OAK 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Brent Rooker, Ramon Laureano
GPP Note: Team ISO of .158 against LHPs.
Tampa Bay Rays (-205) @ Chicago White Sox
Pitchers:
Rays – Drew Rasmussen
White Sox – Mike Clevinger
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. The Rays just keep putting up runs as they exploded after being no-hit for 6 innings on Saturday. I never use Mike Clevinger and this is a spot where I won’t be using him, again. Rasmussen (no relation) has been up and down but I just don’t love his recent performances. With that being said, the White Sox lineup has been pretty blah so you will have to check out my pitching video from this morning.
TB 5-star plays: Josh Lowe, Wander Franco
4-star plays: Isaac Paredes, Randy Arozarena
GPP Note: Team ISO of .239 against RHPs.
CWS 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Andrew Benintendi, Jake Burger
GPP Note: Team ISO of .138 against RHPs.
San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres (-145) – IN MEXICO
Pitchers:
Giants – Alex Cobb
Padres – Yu Darvish
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 20.5. Yeah, that says 20.5 runs according to Vegas. We saw a TON of offense in this park last night and we probably see that again today. With that being said, today’s pitching match-up is much better. After yesterday’s game, the Giants team ISO against RHPs jumped .020 (that’s HUGE). There is actually some strong BvP spots in this game, again today so maybe we do see 20+ runs?
SF 5-star plays: Mike Yastrzemski, LaMonte Wade
4-star plays: Michael Conforto, Thairo Estrada
GPP Note: Team ISO of .225 against RHPs.
SD 5-star plays: Xander Bogaerts, Juan Soto
4-star plays: Nelson Cruz, Manny Machado
GPP Note: Team ISO of .175 against RHPs.
Stacks of the Day: Main Slate
- Tampa Bay Rays
- Los Angeles Angels
- Toronto Blue Jays
MLB Dinger of the Day – Juan Soto, Padres
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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