Full Slate Breakdown for MLB DFS 4/29:
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My Take on a Consistent MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start an MLB slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target, but gives you a holistic look at the slate as well. Breaking down pitching also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the MLB Carnage Report this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the three pitchers that jumped out to me at first glance, good or bad.
- Vince Velasquez
- Hunter Greene
- Spencer Strider
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Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins (-225)
Pitchers:
Royals – Brad Keller
Twins – Sonny Gray or Bailey Ober
Rundown:
This game opened with a total of 8. Gray has been sensational to begin the season so I can only imagine that continues in a plus match-up. At some point we should be expecting a bit of regression but this doesn’t feel like the spot for that. Keller has surprised a bit but the Twins lineup matches up pretty well here so I would imagine they carry a decent chunk of ownership. A few of the MIN bats are waking up (Kepler, Miranda). *UPDATE* I am now seeing Ober starting over Gray. Not as great of an SP but still in a plus spot.
KC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Vinnie Pasquantino
GPP Note: Team ISO of .171 against RHPs.
MIN 5-star plays: Jorge Polanco
4-star plays: Max Kepler, Joey Gallo
GPP Note: Team ISO of .171 against RHPs.
Seattle Mariners @ Toronto Blue Jays (-235)
Pitchers:
Mariners – Chris Flexen
Blue Jays – Kevin Gausman
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. I definitely have to agree with Vegas in this spot as it feels like it’s all about the Blue Jays. Manoah just did a decent job against SEA on Friday and we know that Gausman is a better arm at this point. Flexen doesn’t lineup very well against this TOR lineup and I could see a few HRs out of the Blue Jays. I know I am just 2 games into my research but Vladdy and Chapman are in the Dinger running.
SEA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Teoscar Hernandez, Jared Kelenic
GPP Note: Team ISO of .152 against RHPs.
TOR 5-star plays: Vlad Guerrero
4-star plays: Bo Bichette, Matt Chapman
GPP Note: Team ISO of .170 against RHPs.
New York Yankees @ Texas Rangers (-140)
Pitchers:
Yankees – Jhony Brito
Rangers -Nathan Eovaldi
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. I hope Judge returns because the main guys for the Yankees have seen Eovaldi plenty and most have hit him extremely well. If this game was in New York, Rizzo would be a near lock for my Dinger call. Brito has really struggled with RHBs at the MLB level and he’s not striking a ton of guys out right now so I think Texas is an interesting stack option, especially mini-stacks.
NYY 5-star plays: Anthony Rizzo
4-star plays: DJ LeMahieu, Aaron Judge (if he returns, strong BvP)
GPP Note: Team ISO of .177 against RHPs.
TEX 5-star plays: Adolis Garcia
4-star plays: Marcus Semien
GPP Note: Team ISO of .184 against RHPs.
Cleveland Guardians @ Boston Red Sox (-140)
Pitchers:
Guardians – Zach Plesac
Red Sox – Brayan Bello
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9.5. I expect there to be a ton of baserunners in this game. Neither SP has shown the ability to consistently get outs this season and the Red Sox can hit RHPs, especially when they are at home. I am not sure what to trust with the Guardians as they just don’t offer a ton of power and Bello has been pretty severe reverse splits so far in 2023. Devers stands out as a great HR bet today.
CLE 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jose Ramirez, Amed Rosario
GPP Note: Team ISO of .113 against RHPs.
BOS 5-star plays: Rafael Devers
4-star plays: Jarren Duran, Masataka Yoshida
GPP Note: Team ISO of .192 against RHPs.
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St Louis Cardinals @ Los Angeles Dodgers (-155)
Pitchers:
Cardinals – Jordan Montgomery
Dodgers – Clayton Kershaw
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. Arenado has 70 PAs against Kershaw in his career and in those he has 21 hits (5 HRs). From a contact standpoint, the Dodgers haven’t been great against LHPs but they have racked up some extra-base hits against them this season. I only play Montgomery in certain match-ups so I don’t think this is a spot despite the increase in K projection. Kershaw is always in play for me but the Cardinals have some dangerous RHBs against an LHP.
STL 5-star plays: Nolan Arenado
4-star plays: Willson Contreras
GPP Note: Team ISO of .233 against RHPs.
LAD 5-star plays: Will Smith
4-star plays: Trayce Thompson, Miguel Vargas
GPP Note: Team ISO of .195 against LHPs.
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Colorado Rockies (EVEN)
Pitchers:
D’Backs – Tommy Henry
Rockies – Noah Davis
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 12.5. We get a match-up of very sub-par pitching, in Coors. The offenses should be at the top of our main slate target list. I am not sure there will be a combo I like more than Bryant-Cron on this slate. I am always going to be overweight on Corbin Carroll due to his power/speed combination raising his ceiling. Marte appears to be warming up a bit and there’s some random power in the rest of both lineups.
ARI 5-star plays: Corbin Carroll
4-star plays: Ketel Marte
GPP Note: Team ISO of .162 against RHPs.
COL 5-star plays: Kris Bryant
4-star plays: CJ Cron
GPP Note: Team ISO of .117 against LHPs.
Chicago Cubs @ Miami Marlins (-130)
Pitchers:
Cubs – Caleb Killian
Marlins – Edward Cabrera
Rundown:
This game opened with a total of 9. The Cubs are struggling a bit at the plate but Cabrera is allowing a TON of baserunners. He has nasty stuff so if he could ever figure out how to contain the walks, he has what it takes to put up an impressive performance. The Marlins are an offense that I don’t feel great about stacking up but they have such a strong implied run total that we have to consider them.
CHC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Ian Happ, Cody Bellinger
GPP Note: Team ISO of .166 against RHPs.
MIA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Luis Arraez, Jazz Chisholm
GPP Note: Team ISO of just .142 against RHPs.
Baltimore Orioles (-115) @ Detroit Tigers – Game 1
Pitchers:
Orioles – Dean Kremer
Tigers – Eduardo Rodriguez
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. Pay attention to the official starting pitching as teams can often flip-flop their SPs during doubleheaders based on a guys’ preference or how they are feeling that morning. I love the Orioles against LHPs but it looks like Rutschman will sit in game 1, which is a little annoying. Kremer hasn’t been great so I do have some interest in exposure to Detroit but I won’t be going too heavy.
BAL 5-star plays: Ryan Mountcastle
4-star plays: Jorge Mateo, Austin Hays
GPP Note: Team ISO of .177 against LHPs.
DET 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Kerry Carpenter, Riley Greene
GPP Note: Team ISO of .112 against RHPs.
Baltimore Orioles (-178) @ Detroit Tigers – Game 2
Pitchers:
Orioles – Grayson Rodriguez
Tigers – Matthew Boyd
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. How lucky are we that the Orioles get to face two LHPs in the doubleheader? Grayson has all the talent in the world, he just makes random mistakes. The nice thing is that the Orioles appear ready to allow him to pitch through them and learn. He’s in a great spot as a strong favorite, in a game with a low total. Could this be a signature start during his rookie season?
BAL 5-star plays: Ryan Mountcastle
4-star plays: Jorge Mateo, Austin Hays
GPP Note: Team ISO of .177 against LHPs.
DET 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Kerry Carpenter, Riley Greene
GPP Note: Team ISO of .112 against RHPs.
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Philadelphia Phillies @ Houston Astros (-115)
Pitchers:
Phillies – Zack Wheeler
Astros – Cristian Javier
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. Javier is getting into form as he has allowed just 1 earned in 3 of his last 4 starts. The last two starts have come against ATL and TOR so the opponent hasn’t mattered much to begin the season. He is always at risk of giving up some HRs with his extreme flyball rate. Wheeler has been on my fade list most of the season so far but he has shown K upside (Nola hasn’t). I am intrigued in this game but he’s definitely not going to be a priority.
PHI 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Brandon Marsh, Kyle Schwarber
GPP Note: Team ISO of .165 against RHPs.
HOU 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Yordan Alvarez, Jeremy Pena
GPP Note: Team ISO of .126 against RHPs.
Pittsburgh Pirates (-135) @ Washington Nationals – Game 1
Pitchers:
Pirates – Rich Hill
Nationals – Patrick Corbin
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. I have already started to see some places list Velasquez as the game 1 starter for PITT so we need to pay attention to the starting lineups being posted. We love picking on Corbin but I also love to point out that the Pirates should show some regression (or a lot of regression). I have no idea how Rich Hill is going it but he has given up 2 runs or less in 3 straight and 3 runs or less in 4 of his 5 starts this season. He gets a great match-up so he’s going to be in play for us.
PIT 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Bryan Reynolds, Andrew McCutchen
GPP Note: Team ISO of .167 against LHPs.
WSH 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Luis Garcia, Victor Robles
GPP Note: Team ISO of .105 against LHPs.
Pittsburgh Pirates (-150) @ Washington Nationals – Game 2
Pitchers:
Pirates – Vince Velasquez
Nationals – Chad Kuhl
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. Like I said for Game 1, I am already seeing chatter about Velasquez starting game 1. I really like the spot for Velasquez, in whichever game he starts. Washington has been so damn bad against RHPs. Kuhl will be pitching against his former team but he can’t stop walking people at this point and is rocking an ERA over 7 after 4 starts in 2023. I used to think he was good, what was wrong with me?
PIT 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Ke’Bryan Hayes, Jack Suwinski
GPP Note: Team ISO of .185 against RHPs.
WSH 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Luis Garcia
GPP Note: Team ISO of .093 against RHPs.
Atlanta Braves (-160) @ New York Mets
Pitchers:
Braves – Spencer Strider
Mets – Tylor Megill
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. We get a lot of weather to worry about in New York. I want to be all about Strider with ATL bats but it’s going to be really tough as this game is one of the last ones on the day slate of action. Surprisingly the Mets have hit Strider better than most teams so that’s an interesting thing. They have struck out quite a bit but both Lindor and Nimmo are 4 for 9 against him.
ATL 5-star plays: Matt Olson
4-star plays: Ozzie Albies, Austin Riley
GPP Note: Team ISO of .189 against RHPs.
NYM 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Francisco Lindor, Brandon Nimmo
GPP Note: Team ISO of .138 against RHPs.
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Los Angeles Angels @ Milwaukee Brewers (-150)
Pitchers:
Angels – Reid Detmers
Brewers – Corbin Burnes
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. I am a little shocked to see a total of 8.5 as I think both SPs have a shot at putting up a strong performance. I guess that means I would target the under in this spot. Burnes hasn’t been very sharp this season but this is a spot for him to pick up Ks, in my opinion. Detmers has actually allowed just 2 earned in 3 of his 4 starts. His K numbers have been strong and we have targeted the Brewers with LHPs this season.
LAA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Hunter Renfroe, Mike Trout
GPP Note: Team ISO of .166 against RHPs.
MIL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: William Contreras
GPP Note: Team ISO of .143 against LHPs.
Cincinnati Reds (-160) @ Oakland Athletics
Pitchers:
Reds – Hunter Greene
Athletics – Kyle Muller
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. Muller hasn’t been great but damn the match-up is intriguing. On the other side, Greene is going to be one of my favorite options today but realize that he has volatility no matter who he faces. His upside is extremely impressive and he’s actually been steady to begin the 2023 season. I don’t mind targeting one-off bats in this one as both SPs can give some things up but nobody is a priority other than Greene.
CIN 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Kevin Newman
GPP Note: Team ISO of .114 against LHPs.
OAK 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Brent Rooker, Shea Langeliers
GPP Note: Team ISO of .143 against RHPs.
Tampa Bay Rays (-140) @ Chicago White Sox
Pitchers:
Rays – Calvin Faucher/Yonny Chirinos
White Sox – Lance Lynn
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. The White Sox are striking out so damn much right now and the lineup is struggling almost across the board. Chirinos is such an interesting play, I just wish he was stretched out enough to be a traditional starter. Lynn has been horrible so far in 2023 while we know the Rays bats have been lighting dudes up, left and right. The numbers all say that the Rays put up runs today.
TB 5-star plays: Brandon Lowe
4-star plays: Isaac Paredes, Randy Arozarena
GPP Note: Team ISO of .231 against RHPs.
CWS 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Andrew Benintendi
GPP Note: Team ISO of .140 against RHPs.
San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres (-190) – IN MEXICO
Pitchers:
Giants – Sean Manaea
Padres – Joe Musgrove
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 14.5. Yeah you read that total correctly. It has actually been bet up to 15.5 as of right now. This game is being played in Mexico at a ballpark and elevation that makes Coors look like Dodger stadium. I do feel bad for the pitching in this series. The Giants have amazing BvP against Musgrove at this point. Even the Padres offer some strong BvP spots but they haven’t been as great against LHPs as you would expect.
SF 5-star plays: Joc Pederson, Michael Conforto
4-star plays: Mitch Haniger, Brandon Crawford
GPP Note: Team ISO of .205 against RHPs.
SD 5-star plays: Xander Bogaerts
4-star plays: Nelson Cruz, Manny Machado
GPP Note: Team ISO of .155 against LHPs.
Stacks of the Day: Main Slate
- Texas Rangers
- Tampa Bay Rays
- Coors Field Game (COL over ARI if needing to make a decision)
MLB Dinger of the Day – Joc Pederson, Giants
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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