Hello again everybody, and welcome to today’s MLB Full Count breakdown! I’m nilly and I run the carnage report and DraftKings tiers tools. I also coach NASCAR, so be sure to check us out every weekend over there, too. We get a few early games today, followed by a nice 13-game main slate. There are a lot of ways to go today, both chalky (yay, Coors) and off the beaten path, for pitchers and batters alike. We have a lot to cover, so let’s get to it!
A look at pitchers
Lopez is the easy option for the early games, though every pitcher comes into the day with at least a 440 KSCORE, so there’s some potential for all of them. That could make paying down for early pitchers the way to go, which would allow you to load up on whatever bats you desire. For the main slate, deGrom faces a softer Yankees offense, and with how he’s looked this year, he’ll probably be about as popular as he’s been all season. There are others to consider too, as we have a handful of other pitchers with KSCOREs (such as Castillo and Peterson), though they do see tougher matchups. As always be sure to check out the coach’s notes page to see who they are most interested in.
Early games
Kansas City Royals at Minnesota Twins
We’ll kick things off with the Twins hosting my Royals, with Lyles and Lopez on the hill. We’re greeted with an uninspiring 7.5 total and some bad looking weather, which isn’t the best start to the day that we could ask for. I promise, things do get better! Eventually, at least.
Royals 5 star plays – none
Royals 3.5 star plays – Perez/Witt, Pasquantino
GPP note – Tough matchup for these bats, though Lopez does allow a little bit of power to righties.
Twins 4.5 star plays – Buxton/Correa
Twins 3.5 star plays – Gallo
GPP note – Reverse splits bats are squarely in play here, as Lyles is allowing a lot of contact and power to righties.
Baltimore Orioles at Detroit Tigers
Up next, we have Rodriguez and the Orioles taking on E-Rod and the Tigers. Another 7.5 total with crappy looking weather, we’ll need to keep an eye on the skies as two of the three early games aren’t looking very promising. We do at least have a big main slate to look forward to.
Orioles 4 star plays – Rutschman/Mountcastle
Orioles 3.5 star plays – Mullins/Santander
GPP note – E-Rod has been hot and isn’t allowing much of anything right now, so be careful blindly stacking here.
Tigers 4 star plays – Maton
Tigers 3.5 star plays – Baez
GPP note – Grayson is allowing good contact to both sides, as well as some power to lefties, so some of these cheap bats might be worth investing in.
Chicago Cubs at Miami Marlins
Rounding out the early games, we have Stroman and the Cubs taking on Luzardo and the Marlins. We have another 7.5 total, but at least this time we don’t have to worry about the weather. It’s kind of funny to think that we’re potentially one power outage away from cancelling this early slate…oh, I hope I didn’t jinx anybody!
Cubs 4 star plays – Happ/Wisdom/Suzuki
Cubs 3.5 star plays – Bellinger
GPP note – This isn’t a terrific spot, but Luzardo does allow some power to righties.
Marlins 4 star plays – Arraez/Chisholm
Marlins 3.5 star plays – Soler
GPP note – Stroman hadn’t been allowing much until his last start, so going here might not be a bad idea in case he has another rough start.
Main slate
Pittsburgh Pirates at Washington Nationals
We’ll switch over to the main slate now, starting with the Pirates and Nationals. We’ll see Hill and Kuhl face off here, and they’ll get a 9.0 total to start with. Unfortunately, we still do have some big weather concerns here. On the flip side, there’s only one more rainy game ahead, so we only have to deal with this for so long.
Pirates 4.5 star plays – McCutchen/Hayes
Pirates 3.5 star plays – Reynolds/Santana/Joe
GPP note – Kuhl is allowing plenty of contact and power to both sides of the plate, so there’s no bad way to go here.
Nationals 4 star plays – Candelario
Nationals 3.5 star plays – Call
GPP note – Hill is holding his own, but is allowing some power to righties. Smaller pairings may work best here for us, however.
Seattle Mariners at Toronto Blue Jays
Next up we have Castillo and the Mariners set to take on Manoah and the Blue Jays. We move down to an 8.5 total, though that’s enough to make this one liking. Not having to watch the weather might make it worth loving.
Mariners 4 star plays – Rodriguez
Mariners 3.5 star plays – Kelenic
GPP note – Although Manoah hasn’t been allowing a lot of power, there has been a lot of xwOBA against him from both sides of the plate, which could quickly translate to some big hits against him.
Blue Jays 4 star plays – Guerrero/Springer
Blue Jays 3.5 star plays – Kiermaier/Merrifield
GPP note – Castillo can be a tough target who hasn’t been allowing much of anything, though we know these bats can explode against the best of them. Sounds like a good spot to hedge to me!
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Cleveland Guardians at Boston Red Sox
We’ll move on to our next matchup, this one between the Guardians and Red Sox. We get Bieber and Pivetta as the starters, complete with an 8.5 total. This one does look straight forward, but I can’t help but feel like there’s a good chunk of upside lurking just beneath the surface.
Guardians 5 star plays – Ramirez
Guardians 4 star plays – Rosario/Zunino
GPP note – Pivetta can rack up a few strikeouts, but he’s also allowing plenty of contact and power in between. Attacking him is on the table, as is hedging with him as a mid-ranged SP2.
Red Sox 5 star plays – Devers
Red Sox 4 star plays – Yoshida/Verdugo, Duran/Turner
GPP note – Bieber isn’t typically a target we’d go out of our way to attack, but he’s looked to be in a bit of a slump as of late. He’s allowed above average xwOBA to both sides of the plate, as well as some power to righties, so going a little contrarian here isn’t off the table.
Atlanta Braves at New York Mets
We’ll head back to some potential weather issues again (sorry, I know, but this is the last one!), this time with the Braves and Mets. Fried and Peterson will get the start here, along with a 7.5 total. There are a lot of strong bats here, so our starters will have their work cut out for them – should they not get kicked out early due to a second inning thunderstorm, that is.
Braves 5 star plays – Acuna
Braves 4 star plays – Riley/Albies/Olson
GPP note – Peterson is allowing plenty of power (a whopping five home runs in his last two starts), so I’m a little surprised by this total. Perhaps it will keep their ownership in check a little today?
Mets 4.5 star plays – Lindor/Alonso
Mets 3.5 star plays – Marte/Escobar
GPP note – Fried has been a tough target and doesn’t look to be a target to go all-in against. Some smaller stacks could be useful, though.
Tampa Bay Rays at Chicago White Sox
We’ll make our way to the Midwest next, starting with the Rays and White Sox. We’ll see Eflin and Giolito face off here, along with an 8.5 total. Vegas likes the visitors here, which I suppose shouldn’t be a surprise, but we’ll see which Giolito shows up to meet the challenge.
Rays 4 star plays – Arozarena/Franco/B Lowe
Rays 3.5 star plays – Diaz/Ramirez
GPP note – Giolito isn’t a prime target to attack, but he’s been allowing some power, and I would prefer to take shots here than against Fried or some of the other stingy pitchers today.
White Sox 5 star plays – none
White Sox 3.5 star plays – Burger/Benintendi/Robert
GPP note – Eflin is another tough target on the day, though he has allowed some big power to righties on occasion.
New York Yankees at Texas Rangers
We head down to Texas for our next two games, starting with the Yankees and Rangers. Schmidt will face deGrom, which hardly feels like a fair fight. But like they say, you got to “run what you’ve brung,” and the Rangers brought one of the top options on the day.
Yankees 5 star plays – none
Yankees 4 star plays – Rizzo
GPP note – This club does know deGrom well, but I don’t know how much that will matter without some of the big guns. Contrarian stacks only.
Ranger 4 star plays – Lowe/Semien
Rangers 3.5 star plays – Garcia/Heim
GPP note – Schmidt had a surprise game against Toronto in his last start, but aside from that he’s been allowing plenty of contact and power. Stacking against him is in play, but if you think he can have another gem, you could hedge with him as a punt option in big tournaments.
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Philadelphia Phillies at Houston Astros
Nola and the Phillies will face Valdez and the Astros next, and with that, a 7.5 total. If both pitchers show up and do their job, this one could certainly see the under, but it feels rather difficult to trust Nola right now. We’ll see how that goes, but anything short of an A-game performance could see him hitting the showers early.
Phillies 4 star plays – Castellanos/Turner
Phillies 3.5 star plays – Schwarber/Marsh
GPP note – Valdez is yet another tough target today, though he has been allowing some big power to lefties here and there.
Astros 4.5 star plays – Alvarez/Tucker, Bregman
Astros 3.5 star plays – Pena
GPP note – Nola continues to be a decent target to attack, as he’s allowed plenty of contact and power with a reduced strikeout rate. Both sides of the plate are in play here.
Los Angeles Angels at Milwaukee Brewers
Next up we have Anderson and the Angels taking on Miley and the Brewers. We move up to a 9.0 total, but as usual with Miley, a lot of that will probably depend on which version of him shows up. Like Nola, for his sake, he had better bring his A-game. If not, that Kabuto helmet might be getting a workout.
Angels 5 star plays – Trout/Ohtani
Angels 4 star plays – Renfroe, Ward/Rendon
GPP note – You never really know what to expect out of Miley, so attacking and/or hedging here is a good idea. Righties have the power advantage, though not by much.
Brewers 4 star plays – Yelich
Brewers 3.5 star plays – Adames/Contreras
GPP note – Anderson is a fine target today, and you can attack him from either side of the plate (righties do have a much better matchup, but he’s allowing some power to lefties as well).
Arizona Diamondbacks at Colorado Rockies
We’ll head to our chalky Coors game next, featuring the Diamondbacks and Rockies. Kelly and Freeland will get the start here, and Vegas has started them with an 11.0 total. While that does feel a little below average for a Coors game, they’re usually on or off switches anyway, and people will stack them regardless of what the total is.
Diamondbacks 4.5 star plays – Marte/Walker
Diamondbacks 4 star plays – Longoria
GPP note – It’s Freeland at Coors, so you know what to do.
Rockies 5 star plays – Blackmon
Rockies 4 star plays – Bryant/Cron/Diaz
GPP note – More of the same here, though Kelly has allowed more power to righties than lefties as of late.
Cincinnati Reds at Oakland Athletics
We’ll head out west as we wind down the day, as the Reds take on the Athletics. Cessa and Muller will get the start here in what might be the battle of the gas cans or the cheap bats. One side has to prevail, and unless we get a one-to-nothing dud, there is sure to be some solid value here somewhere. The trick will be finding it, but if you do, you might just win the day.
Reds 4 star plays – India
Reds 3.5 star plays – Newman
GPP note – Muller continues a rough 2023 campaign, and you can attack him from either side here. No, these bats aren’t exciting, but they’re cheap and face soft pitching. Sometimes that’s exactly what we need!
Athletics 4 star plays – Rooker
Athletics 3.5 star plays – Langeliers
GPP note – Swap “Muller” for “Cessa” and this is the exact same as above.
St Louis Cardinals at Los Angeles Dodgers
And finally, we’ll wrap up the day with the Cardinals and Dodgers. Flaherty and May will be our starters, and we end the day with a reasonable 9.0 total. These two pitchers have had a similar 2023, though unfortunately for them that means they’ve both been quite up and down. That means we may see some big scores from some of these players, though they won’t be as cheap as our previous game.
Cardinals 4 star plays – Goldschmidt/Arenado
Cardinals 3.5 star plays – Nootbaar
GPP note – May continues to be a coin-flip of a matchup, so it’s never a bad idea to hedge against him. Lefties have a slight xwOBA advantage, but neither side is getting a ton of power out of him.
Dodgers 5 star plays – Freeman/Betts
Dodgers 4 star plays – Muncy/Outman
GPP note – Flaherty has looked a bit like May this season (perhaps without the big hair), so hedging here isn’t a bad idea. He is allowing a good chunk of power to lefties and contact to both sides of the plate, so it’s easier to select bats from here.
And that’s going to do it for this one. Thanks for joining me, and be sure to check out the coach’s notes page to see who they are most interested in. Best of luck today!
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