Hello again everybody, and welcome to today’s MLB Full Count breakdown! I’m nilly and I run the carnage report and DraftKings tiers tools. I also coach NASCAR, so be sure to check us out every weekend over there, too. It’s Thursday, so it’s a split-slate sort of day. Things are divided almost equally though, as we have six early games followed by a five-game main slate. There’s a lot to cover, so let’s get to it!
A look at pitchers
There is no shortage of good options on either slate today. For the early games, Ohtani is a standout as usual, though there are others (such as Webb) who can offer some strikeout upside as well. On the main slate, Mahle is priced well for his plus-matchup, and there are some other obvious high-ceiling options such as Cole and McClanahan (though they don’t come with a discount). As always be sure to check out the coach’s notes page to see who they are most interested in!
Early games
Miami Marlins at Atlanta Braves
We’ll kick things off with the Marlins and Braves, with Garrett and Wright as the starters. Vegas is giving up an 8.5 total for our opener, with most of the love going towards the home team. All things considered, that seems fair, though for fantasy purposes there looks to be a few useful pieces of the Miami offense.
Marlins 4 star plays – Arraez/Chisholm
Marlins 3.5 star plays – Soler
GPP note – This is a pretty good spot for the lefties (Wright is allowing tons to them), and I could see them going over without a ton of issue.
Braves 5 star plays – Acuna
Braves 4 star plays – Riley/Albies, Olson
GPP note – Traditional splits are the way to go here, though Garrett is doing a decent job of mitigating damage, so don’t be afraid to pivot away from some of the chalk here (or at least consider a hedge).
Los Angeles Dodgers at Pittsburgh Pirates
Next up we have the Dodgers and Pirates, with Urias and Keller on the mound. At first glance this looks quite similar to our first game, but it’s the visitors that Vegas prefers here. Don’t neglect the Pittsburgh bats though, as they have shown they can bring the heat.
Dodgers 5 star plays – Freeman/Betts
Dodgers 4 star plays – Martinez/Outman
GPP note – Lefties get the power advantage while righties are hitting for more xwOBA against Keller, so don’t be afraid to try some RvR bats.
Pirates 4 star plays – McCutchen/Hayes, Reynolds
Pirates 3.5 star plays – Joe, Santana
GPP note – It’s not a great matchup against Urias, though he is allowing power to both sides of the plate. Contrarian/pivot stacks are viable here.
Seattle Mariners at Philadelphia Phillies
Moving on, we next have Kirby and the Mariners set to take on Strahm and the Phillies. Another 8.5 total, Vegas has this game split down the middle, though I personally like the Phillies here. We’ll see how that goes, but…well, I probably jinxed them.
Mariners 4 star plays – Rodriguez
Mariners 3.5 star plays – France/Hernandez
GPP note – It’s not a great matchup against Strahm, for however long he stays in, but he at least allowing some power to righties.
Phillies 4 star plays – Turner/Schwarber, Marsh
Phillies 3.5 star plays – Castellanos
GPP note – The implied total is the same but these guys get the better matchup (power is equal but allowed xwOBA is higher to both sides).
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San Diego Padres at Chicago Cubs
We’ll head out to Wrigley for our next game, this one between the Padres and Cubs. We’ll see Lugo and Wesneski face off here, with another 8.5 total. The visitors get the slight nod here, though with these lineups, one would think they would be closer to an overwhelming favorite. Baseball is a funny game, isn’t it?
Padres 5 star plays – Soto
Padres 4 star plays – Machado/Tatis/Bogaerts, Carpenter
GPP note – Lefties get the advantage in this matchup, and this is a spot where these guys could really flourish.
Cubs 4 star plays – Happ/Suzuki
Cubs 3.5 star plays – Wisdom, Rios/Hosmer
GPP note – Not a very good matchup, as Lugo isn’t allowing much power at all this season. Lefties are at least hitting modest xwOBA against him, but that’s about it.
St Louis Cardinals at San Francisco Giants
We’ll head out west for our next two games, starting with the Cardinals and Giants. We’ll have Mikolas and Webb as the starters, and with them, another 8.5 total. This one looks like a game the Giants can take, though I think the Cardinals can make a good argument as a pivot option as the underdog.
Cardinals 4 star plays – Goldschmidt/Arenado, Nootbaar
Cardinals 3.5 star plays – Gorman
GPP note – Not a great matchup here either, but Webb is at least allowing power to both sides to go with his strong strikeout rate (a good hedging spot, perhaps).
Giants 4.5 star plays – Yastrzemski
Giants 3.5 star plays – Pederson/Wade, Davis
GPP note – Mikolas is allowing plenty of contact and power to both sides of the plate, so this is a good spot to grab stacks of any size.
Oakland Athletics at Los Angeles Angels
Our final early game will feature Sears and Ohtani, as the Athletics take on the Angels. We have yet another 8.5 total, and to no surprise, Ohtani and his crew are the heavy favorites. I don’t think we’ll see anything unexpected here, but hey, maybe the near-impossible will happen.
Athletics 5 star plays – none
Athletics 4 star plays – none
GPP note – Oof.
Angels 5 star plays – Trout
Angels 4 star plays – Renfroe
GPP note – Righties get the much better matchup here, though Sears is allowing some decent contact to lefties (though not much power).
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Main slate
Baltimore Orioles at Detroit Tigers
We’ll switch over to the main slate next, starting with the Orioles and Tigers. Gibson and Wentz will get the start here, and with them an 8.0 total. It’s not the most exciting game at first glance, but there are plenty of cheap bats here that have a decent chance to make some noise today.
Orioles 4 star plays – Rustschman/Mountcastle
Orioles 3.5 star plays – Santander, Matteo
GPP note – Solid matchup for the righties, though not much for the lefties here. Traditional splits are probably the way to go here.
Tigers 4 star plays – Carpenter/McKinstry
Tigers 3.5 star plays – Maton
GPP note – Gibson does allow power to both sides, along with some good contact to lefties, so some budget contrarian/pivot stacks are a viable option here.
Tampa Bay Rays at Chicago White Sox
Next up we have the Rays and White Sox, with McClanahan and Cease on the mound. These sturdy pitchers are met with the lowest total on a day – a paltry 7.0. These bats won’t be the talk of the town, so perhaps some hedging could be in order.
Rays 4 star plays – Arozarena/Franco
Rays 3.5 star plays – Lowe
GPP note – Not a great spot for these bats, though we know what they can do if they get hot. They’re in play against anybody to at least some extent, including Cease.
White Sox 5 star plays – none
White Sox 4 star plays – Robert
GPP note – Another crappy matchup on the day. Contrarian stacks only, if you dare.
Washington Nationals at New York Mets
Williams and the Nationals will take on Lucchesi and the Mets next, complete with an 8.0 total. It looks like DraftKings forgot to price Lucchesi up again, so he’s bound to be a popular option as the heavy favorite. Got to love those free spaces!
Nationals 5 star plays – none
Nationals 3.5 star plays – Candelario/Call
GPP note – Same as the White Sox.
Mets 5 star plays – Lindor
Mets 4 star plays – Alonso, Nimmo/McNeil, Marte
GPP note – Williams allows plenty to both sides, but more power to righties, so be sure to attack him from his own side.
Kansas City Royals at Minnesota Twins
Greinke and my Royals will take on Mahle and the Twins next, along with another 8.0 total. We have some weather concerns for this one, so keep an eye on that in case you decide to stack KC to the moon (yes, I am kidding). You probably should keep an eye on things though, as the Minnesota bats look to be in a good spot against Greinke who seems to be going the way of Bumgarner. Too soon? Perhaps.
Royals 5 star plays – none
Royals 3.5 star plays – Perez/Witt, Pasquantino
GPP note – There’s not a ton to love here, though Mahle does allow some good power to righties.
Twins 4.5 star plays – Buxton/Correa
Twins 4 star plays – Gallo/Kepler, Taylor
GPP note – Greinke’s struggles continue, so you should probably just attack him here. Both sides of the plate are viable, as he allows about the same contact and power to them both.
New York Yankees at Texas Rangers
And finally, we’ll wrap up the day with the Yankees and Rangers, with Cole and Heaney on the mound. Cole represents another high-dollar arm on this small slate who will carry plenty of ownership, so it’ll be interesting to see if they pull through or if the budget arms win the day. Either way, I don’t think the Rangers will be doing as such.
Yankees 5 star plays – Judge
Yankees 4 star plays – Rizzo
GPP note – Heaney isn’t exactly a pushover, but he is allowing plenty of power to righties.
Rangers 4 star plays – Semien
Rangers 3.5 star plays – Lowe/Garcia/Heim
GPP note – Attacking Cole isn’t a whole lot of fun, but these bats are hitting righties for some power right now, so you can go contrarian here and not feel completely terrible about it.
And that’s going to do it for this one. Thanks for joining me, and be sure to check out the coach’s notes page to see who they are most interested in. Best of luck today!
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