Full Slate Breakdown for MLB DFS 4/26:
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My Take on a Consistent MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start an MLB slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target, but gives you a holistic look at the slate as well. Breaking down pitching also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the MLB Carnage Report this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the three pitchers that jumped out to me at first glance, good or bad.
- Zac Gallen
- Freddy Peralta
- Bryce Elder
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New York Yankees @ Minnesota Twins (-120)
Pitchers:
Yankees – Domingo German
Twins – Kenta Maeda
Rundown:
This game opened with a total of 8. We have an interesting match-up here as the Twins were dominated by German a couple of starts ago but there was a ton of talk about potential substances and forcing him to wash his hands. It was so much that Baldelli was ejected in that game. Maeda left his last start after taking a 100+ MPH shot off of his ankle/shin. I think the Yankees offense is in the slightly better spot but the Twins offense has outperformed them in this series.
NYY 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Aaron Judge, DJ LeMahieu
GPP Note: Team ISO of .171 against RHPs.
MIN 5-star plays: Jorge Polanco
4-star plays: Joey Gallo
GPP Note: Team ISO of .158 against RHPs.
Chicago White Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays (-190)
Pitchers:
White Sox – Michael Kopech
Blue Jays – Yusei Kikuchi
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9.5. For a game that’s expected to see some runs, there aren’t a lot of guys that really stand out for me. We know that I will always stack the Blue Jays because they have plenty of power throughout the lineup. The White Sox are struggling but I normally pick on Kikuchi, which has worked just once in 4 starts so far this season. I do think we end up seeing 3+ HRs in this game and it wouldn’t shock me if multiple guys double-dong.
CWS 5-star plays: Jake Burger
4-star plays: Luis Robert
GPP Note: Team ISO of .174 against LHPs.
TOR 5-star plays: Vlad Guerrero
4-star plays: Bo Bichette
GPP Note: Team ISO of .171 against RHPs.
Texas Rangers (-115) @ Cincinnati Reds
Pitchers:
Rangers – Jon Gray
Reds – Graham Ashcraft
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. We get a better pitching match-up in Cincy than we had yesterday as the team’s put up some runs. Gray wasn’t sharp in his first start after taking a line-drive off of his pitching arm. There could be some hangover effects yet but man, the Reds’ lineup has just been weak against RHPs so far this season. Ashcraft is one of my favorite young arms in baseball but his reverse splits could be an issue with the RH power that TEX can deploy.
TEX 5-star plays: Adolis Garcia
4-star plays: Marcus Semien
GPP Note: Team ISO of .195 against RHPs.
CIN 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Wil Myers (was scratched yesterday), Jonathan India
GPP Note: Team ISO of .108 against RHPs.
Boston Red Sox @ Baltimore Orioles (-115)
Pitchers:
Red Sox – Tanner Houck
Orioles – Tyler Wells
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. We saw these offenses explode a bit last night as each side hit a Grand Slam. Wells has been really solid in 2 of his 4 starts, coming off of 7 inning dominance of the Tigers. He’s generally been a reverse splits guy but the Red Sox have a few LHBs that are rolling at the plate right now. Houck can flash nasty stuff but he does make mistakes throughout his starts. He allowed 2 HRs to the Orioles in 5 innings to begin his season. Boston is 4-0 in Houck’s 4 starts to begin the season.
BOS 5-star plays: Jarren Duran
4-star plays: Alex Verdugo, Masataka Yoshida
GPP Note: Team ISO of .193 against RHPs.
BAL 5-star plays: Cedric Mullins
4-star plays: Gunnar Henderson, Jorge Mateo
GPP Note: Team ISO of .167 against RHPs.
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St Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants (-115)
Pitchers:
Cardinals – Steven Matz
Giants – Anthony DeSclafani
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. Both pitchers are coming off of rough starts but the difference is that Matz has struggled to begin the season while DeSclafani had been rolling to begin 2023. Matz gets a great match-up on paper as the Giants have been really bad against LHPs as a team. Some of the numbers are skewed as they just recently were healthy enough to get back to their platoon split lineup. Goldschmidt has hit DeSclafani extremely well (14 for 27 with 7 extra-base hits).
STL 5-star plays: Paul Goldschmidt
4-star plays: Tyler O’Neill, Nolan Gorman
GPP Note: Team ISO of .142 against RHPs.
SF 5-star plays: Wilmer Flores
4-star plays: Brandon Crawford, Mike Yastrzemski
GPP Note: Team ISO of .110 against LHPs.
Colorado Rockies @ Cleveland Guardians
Pitchers:
Rockies – German Marquez
Guardians – Tanner Bibee
Rundown:
We are still waiting on the Vegas information. Bibee is rumored to be making his MLB debut and I am pretty damn excited. I know he’s not available on DK, I haven’t had a chance to open up FD this morning. He has been absolutely dominant in his minor league career (28 starts worth of dominance). Marquez is expected to be activated from the IL and he gets a decent spot to make his return as we know the Guardians lack power at this point.
COL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Ryan McMahon
GPP Note: Team ISO of .137 against RHPs.
CLE 5-star plays: Jose Ramirez
4-star plays: Josh Naylor
GPP Note: Team ISO of .107 against RHPs.
Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves (-165)
Pitchers:
Marlins – Sandy Alcantara
Braves – Bryce Elder
Rundown:
This game opened with a total of 8. The Braves’ roster has some impressive numbers against Alcantara but I have a hard time buying in because of how great he was last season. He hasn’t been elite this season but he did dominate the Twins and pick up a complete game shutout. He had his last turn in the rotation skipped so we may see him limited to around 80-85 pitches today. Elder has been spectacular for the Braves and the Marlins are striking out a bunch right now, while they are without Arraez (day to day).
MIA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Bryan De La Cruz
GPP Note: Team ISO of just .138 against RHPs.
ATL 5-star plays: Ronald Acuna Jr.
4-star plays: Ozzie Albies
GPP Note: Team ISO of .187 against RHPs.
Kansas City Royals @ Arizona Diamondbacks (-267)
Pitchers:
Royals – Ryan Yarbrough
D’Backs – Zac Gallen
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. Despite the D’Backs not swinging for a ton of power against LHPs, they have a bunch of guys who are hitting .290+ (up to .385) against LHPs so far in 2023. Yarbrough feels like a guy who’s in for a long day, allowing a bunch of hits. Gallen is elite and I don’t care if you think otherwise. He’s back on his patented run of scoreless innings where he nearly set the record last season. He has 11 Ks in 2 of his last 3 starts, allowing 0 runs in all 3.
KC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: MJ Melendez, Bobby Witt
GPP Note: Team ISO of .109 against RHPs.
ARI 5-star plays: Corbin Carroll
4-star plays: Christian Walker, Nick Ahmed
GPP Note: Team ISO of .142 against LHPs.
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Houston Astros @ Tampa Bay Rays (-130)
Pitchers:
Astros – Hunter Brown
Rays – Calvin Faucher/Josh Fleming
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. I want to believe that the Astros will get to the pitching combination of the Rays, because they aren’t very good. The problem I have is that the Astros have been mediocre against LHPs as main guys like Abreu and Bregman have really struggled. I am a huge Hunter Brown fan but it’s REALLY difficult wanting to get on his side against this TB squad, even if they were dominated by Luis Garcia yesterday.
HOU 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Yordan Alvarez, Jeremy Pena
GPP Note: Team ISO of .166 against LHPs.
TB 5-star plays: Randy Arozarena
4-star plays: Harold Ramirez, Yandy Diaz
GPP Note: Team ISO of .237 against RHPs.
Los Angeles Dodgers (-145)@ Pittsburgh Pirates
Pitchers:
Dodgers – Tony Gonsolin/Andre Jackson
Pirates – Roansy Contreras
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. Gonsolin is making his return from the IL but he’s expected to top out at 4 innings of work. He made just one, 3 inning, rehab start. Jackson is being rumored to follow him but it’s tough to gauge how many innings he’s going to get. Contreras has been hit hard by LHBs but hasn’t given up an HR yet. If Muncy returns for this game, I would think that streak comes to an end.
LAD 5-star plays: Max Muncy (might miss this game)
4-star plays: James Outman, Freddie Freeman
GPP Note: Team ISO of .239 against RHPs.
PIT 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Ke’Bryan Hayes, Bryan Reynolds
GPP Note: Team ISO of .192 against RHPs.
Seattle Mariners (-120) @ Philadelphia Phillies
Pitchers:
Mariners – Logan Gilbert
Phillies – Taijuan Walker
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. Walker has continued his reverse splits numbers this season so Teoscar feels like another strong bet to hit an HR. Kelenic just keeps hitting HRs, it doesn’t matter if they throw right handed or left. Gilbert was scratched yesterday and moved to today. We learned that he had dealt with spasms over the weekend so it’s something that we need to keep an eye on. He has strikeout upside but I do worry about those spasms popping up at any point.
SEA 5-star plays: Teoscar Hernandez
4-star plays: Julio Rodriguez, Jared Kelenic
GPP Note: Team ISO of .150 against RHPs.
PHI 5-star plays: Trea Turner
4-star plays: Nick Castellanos
GPP Note: Team ISO of .178 against RHPs.
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Oakland Athletics @ Los Angeles Angels (-235)
Pitchers:
Athletics – Luis Medina
Angels – Patrick Sandoval
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. Medina has made 3 starts at AAA, totaling 179 pitches and topping out at 4 innings. He has a walks issue but there is K upside. With that said, he’s just not worth it for me today. I wish I knew which version of Sandoval would show up. He has solid upside but he either walks a bunch or he lacks K upside. It’s a decent spot, despite the A’s recently smacking around his left handed teammate, Suarez.
OAK 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Brent Rooker, Jesus Aguilar
GPP Note: Team ISO of .174 against LHPs.
LAA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Shohei Ohtani, Mike Trout
GPP Note: Team ISO of .156 against RHPs.
Detroit Tigers @ Milwaukee Brewers (-235)
Pitchers:
Tigers – Michael Lorenzen
Brewers – Freddy Peralta
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. I want to be all about the Brewers but Lorenzen has been pretty severe with his reverse splits this season. I think the Brewers could get to him but it’s not as slam dunk as I was initially thinking. Peralta is the best pitching option during the day as the Tigers are just weak overall. I originally was going to make Rowdy Tellez my Dinger of the Day but will be backing off of that stance.
DET 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Javy Baez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .115 against RHPs.
MIL 5-star plays: Willy Adames
4-star plays: Rowdy Tellez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .159 against RHPs.
Washington Nationals @ New York Mets (-220)
Pitchers:
Nationals – Mackenzie Gore
Mets – Kodai Senga
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. Senga has had a couple of issues to begin his MLB career. He can’t stop walking people and he is giving up HRs. That’s not a great combo, even against a very weak WSH lineup. Gore has looked really good this season, especially against RHBs. I could see the Mets struggling in this one a bit, as they were shut down by Josiah Gray last night. Alonso is always going to be a threat against LHPs.
WSH 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Joey Meneses, Keibert Ruiz
GPP Note: Team ISO of .093 against RHPs.
NYM 5-star plays: Brandon Nimmo
4-star plays: Pete Alonso
GPP Note: Team ISO of .165 against LHPs.
San Diego Padres @ Chicago Cubs (EVEN)
Pitchers:
Padres – Michael Wacha
Cubs – Drew Smyly
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. We saw both SPs benefit from the cold and wind last night (despite Snell not throwing strikes). It’s expected to be cold but not as cold tonight with some wind blowing in again. Smyly was dominant in his last start and could carry that over against a SD offense that’s struggling right now. Wacha is capable of doing great things but he’s been bad overall this season. Happ has crushed against Wacha in their previous meetings.
SD 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Manny Machado, Xander Bogaerts
GPP Note: Team ISO of .159 against LHPs.
CHC 5-star plays: Ian Happ
4-star plays: Dansby Swanson
GPP Note: Team ISO of .163 against RHPs.
Stacks of the Day: Main Slate
- Seattle Mariners
- Houston Astros
- Los Angeles Dodgers
MLB Dinger of the Day – Julio Rodriguez, Mariners
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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