Full Slate Breakdown for MLB DFS 4/25:
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My Take on a Consistent MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start an MLB slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target, but gives you a holistic look at the slate as well. Breaking down pitching also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the MLB Carnage Report this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the three pitchers that jumped out to me at first glance, good or bad.
- Justin Steele
- Blake Snell
- Mason Miller
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New York Yankees @ Minnesota Twins (-130)
Pitchers:
Yankees – Nestor Cortes
Twins – Joe Ryan
Rundown:
This game opened with a total of 6.5. Should be a great game to watch if you are a fan of pitching. The Yankees keep striking out quite a bit while the Twins aren’t a whole lot better right now. The total actually opened at 7 but it instantly went to 6.5 so I put 6.5 earlier. A few of the Twins have had success against Cortes but I am not banking on it tonight. I think each team is best left for a mini-stack option.
NYY 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Aaron Judge, Anthony Rizzo
GPP Note: Team ISO of .182 against RHPs.
MIN 5-star plays: Byron Buxton
4-star plays: Carlos Correa, Jose Miranda
GPP Note: Team ISO of .149 against LHPs.
Chicago White Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays (-210)
Pitchers:
White Sox – Mike Clevinger
Blue Jays – Jose Berrios
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9.5. The White Sox roster has hit Berrios really well in previous meetings so I am a little shocked to see the -210 favorite. I was thinking about using some Berrios tonight but I might have to back away at this point. Clevinger has had a couple of rough starts to go with a couple of strong ones but I am almost never using an SP against the Blue Jays offense.
CWS 5-star plays: Andrew Benintendi
4-star plays: Eloy Jimenez, Andrew Vaughn
GPP Note: Team ISO of .140 against RHPs.
TOR 5-star plays: Vlad Guerrero
4-star plays: George Springer, Bo Bichette
GPP Note: Team ISO of .168 against RHPs.
Texas Rangers (-145) @ Cincinnati Reds
Pitchers:
Rangers – Martin Perez
Reds – Luke Weaver
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9.5. This one feels like it’s all about the Rangers today. Perez is a guy that can contain opposing offenses and while the Reds have been better against LHPs than RHPs, they still aren’t destroying LHPs. The Rangers offense has been rolling, especially against RHPs so far. Weaver was lit up early last start and then settled in nicely so he’s always capable of slowing down a team but I just don’t see it happening here.
TEX 5-star plays: Adolis Garcia
4-star plays: Marcus Semien, Ezequil Duran
GPP Note: Team ISO of .186 against RHPs.
CIN 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Kevin Newman
GPP Note: Team ISO of .127 against LHPs.
Boston Red Sox @ Baltimore Orioles (-165)
Pitchers:
Red Sox – Corey Kluber
Orioles – Kyle Bradish
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. I was shocked to see an 8.5 total as I think that Boston has a few bats that can get to Bradish (great BvP history). I am a fan of Bradish overall so I would love to see him dominate, I’m just not sure it happens. The Orioles should do some damage to Kluber overall but he seems steady enough to not get lit up. He definitely hasn’t looked great so far this season, allowing 4+ in 3 of his 4 starts.
BOS 5-star plays: Rafael Devers
4-star plays: Alex Verdugo
GPP Note: Team ISO of .197 against RHPs.
BAL 5-star plays: Cedric Mullins
4-star plays: Anthony Santander, Jorge Mateo
GPP Note: Team ISO of .162 against RHPs.
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St Louis Cardinals (-115) @ San Francisco Giants
Pitchers:
Cardinals – Jake Woodford
Giants – John Brebbia/Sean Manaea
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. Honestly, if this game was in just about any other ballpark we would see a total of like 9.5 tonight. If Manaea is the actual long-reliever for SF tonight, I think STL smacks him around. Woodford has been hit by both RHBs and LHBs so far and the Giants have plenty of bats that can do damage. I am trying to contain my excitement for offensive potential here but it’s tough.
STL 5-star plays: Willson Contreras
4-star plays: Nolan Arenado, Paul Goldschmidt
GPP Note: The three above are a combined 7 for 14 with 5 extra-base hits against Manaea.
SF 5-star plays: Mike Yastrzemski
4-star plays: JD Davis, Joc Pederson
GPP Note: Team ISO of .212 against RHPs.
Colorado Rockies @ Cleveland Guardians (-210)
Pitchers:
Rockies – Ryan Feltner
Guardians – Peyton Battenfield
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. We get a couple of blah pitchers, who have actually surprised a little bit this season. We also get a couple of blah offenses which explains an 8.5 total despite having mediocre pitchers on the mound. I wouldn’t be shocked to see either offense put up a decent number but I just don’t know where to go to find those numbers. Going to view them both as one-off type offenses.
COL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Ryan McMahon
GPP Note: Team ISO of .135 against RHPs.
CLE 5-star plays: Jose Ramirez
4-star plays: Amed Rosario
GPP Note: Team ISO of .107 against LHPs.
Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves (-235)
Pitchers:
Marlins – Bryan Hoeing
Braves – Charlie Morton
Rundown:
This game opened with a total of 8.5. How excited are the Marlins to not have to see Strider today? Hoeing gave up 5 HRs in 12.2 innings at the MLB level in 2022. Morton has been decent in every start but he hasn’t been great overall. He isn’t racking up Ks but he is walking a few more guys than we would expect. Part of me thinks he’s in a great spot with a weak MIA squad but the other part of me thinks it’s really tough for him to follow up Strider’s electric stuff.
MIA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Luis Arraez, Bryan de La Cruz
GPP Note: Team ISO of just .135 against RHPs.
ATL 5-star plays: Ronald Acuna Jr.
4-star plays: Matt Olson, Sam Hilliard
GPP Note: Team ISO of .189 against RHPs.
Kansas City Royals @ Arizona Diamondbacks (-140)
Pitchers:
Royals – Brady Singer
D’Backs – Ryne Nelson
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 10. Singer has looked like complete trash, outside of his first start. The game total is pretty extreme tonight so I guess I have to ignore that I think that Singer is much better than what he has shown the last 3 starts. Nelson has been similar to Singer in that he hasn’t been very good to begin the season. Last night’s game was somewhat of a letdown so maybe some people jump off. I want to target some LHBs in this one.
KC 5-star plays: Vinnie Pasquantino
4-star plays: MJ Melendez, Bobby Witt
GPP Note: Team ISO of .108 against RHPs.
ARI 5-star plays: Corbin Carroll
4-star plays: Geraldo Perdomo
GPP Note: Team ISO of .164 against RHPs.
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Houston Astros @ Tampa Bay Rays (-190)
Pitchers:
Astros – Luis Garcia
Rays – Drew Rasmussen
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. Man it’s tough trying to figure out who is going to go off for the Rays right now. It seems like 67%+ of the lineup does each game. Their last 7 numbers are almost all through the roof. The Astros have been disappointing so far and I don’t think they bust out of it against Rasmussen. I do think their power starts showing up more and more but when is it going to get to where we expect it?
HOU 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Yordan Alvarez, Alex Bregman
GPP Note: Team ISO of .126 against RHPs.
TB 5-star plays: Brandon Lowe
4-star plays: Wander Franco, Yandy Diaz
GPP Note: Team ISO of .247 against RHPs.
Los Angeles Dodgers (-115)@ Pittsburgh Pirates
Pitchers:
Dodgers – Noah Syndergaard
Pirates – Johan Oviedo
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. We get an interesting game as Oviedo and the Pirates have both been getting it done. I would think the Dodgers pick up the W here but I don’t think it’s an easy game for them. The Pirates are overachieving for sure but we can’t predict regression to hit right this instant. Syndergaard allows a ton of stolen bases so if you can nail the Pirates player that picks up multiple steals, you are ahead of the field.
LAD 5-star plays: Max Muncy (might miss this game)
4-star plays: James Outman, Freddie Freeman
GPP Note: Team ISO of .242 against RHPs.
PIT 5-star plays: Jack Suwinski
4-star plays: Carlos Santana
GPP Note: Team ISO of .195 against RHPs.
Seattle Mariners (-120) @ Philadelphia Phillies
Pitchers:
Mariners – Logan Gilbert
Phillies – Bailey Falter
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. Gilbert has been pretty reverse splits heavy at the MLB level so I would look at Bohm, Turner, and Realmuto before Schwarber and Stott tonight. Falter hasn’t been bad but he hasn’t been great either and I think the SEA lineup has the kind of bats that could cause some problems for him. Teoscar Hernandez is at or near the top of my Dinger calls for tonight.
SEA 5-star plays: Teoscar Hernandez
4-star plays: Julio Rodriguez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .157 against LHPs.
PHI 5-star plays: Trea Turner
4-star plays: JT Realmuto
GPP Note: Team ISO of .180 against RHPs.
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Oakland Athletics @ Los Angeles Angels (-178)
Pitchers:
Athletics – Mason Miller
Angels – Griffin Canning
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. Canning may not have the strikeout ability that he did when coming up but I think he’s a smart enough pitcher to work to his strengths, along with the ballparks. The A’s aren’t a huge problem for him but they did just go off last night (Suarez is such a dumpster). Miller has more upside than Canning but it comes with a TON more volatility. I think the median projections would favor Canning but if we change to ceiling numbers, it’s all about Miller’s K ability.
OAK 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Brent Rooker, Shea Langeliers
GPP Note: Team ISO of .129 against RHPs.
LAA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Shohei Ohtani, Mike Trout
GPP Note: Team ISO of .157 against RHPs.
Detroit Tigers @ Milwaukee Brewers (-170)
Pitchers:
Tigers – Spencer Turnbull
Brewers – Eric Lauer
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. The Tigers have been atrocious against LHPs to begin the 2023 season so I think we have to be into Eric Lauer tonight. Against Turnbull, LHBs have an OPS of .977 so far in 2023 and that’s not a good thing when Yelich and Tellez are swinging it so well. I see zero reason to consider Turnbull right now but he did throw a no-hitter in a dome before (random fact).
DET 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jake Rogers, Eric Haase
GPP Note: Team ISO of .089 against LHPs.
MIL 5-star plays: Rowdy Tellez
4-star plays: Christian Yelich, Willy Adames
GPP Note: Team ISO of .163 against RHPs.
Washington Nationals @ New York Mets (-196)
Pitchers:
Nationals – Josiah Gray
Mets – Jose Butto
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. Gray has been strong over his last 3 starts but he was lit up to begin the season. He’s always had an HR issue at the MLB level and I think the Mets have some power that gets to him tonight. Butto is a decent option tonight but he isn’t a big K guy and he can have issues with walks. Washington has been so weak against RHPs that we should bump Butto up slightly so that we can get some exposure.
WSH 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Joey Meneses
GPP Note: Team ISO of .092 against RHPs.
NYM 5-star plays: Brandon Nimmo
4-star plays: Pete Alonso, Jeff McNeil
GPP Note: Team ISO of .143 against RHPs.
San Diego Padres @ Chicago Cubs (-120)
Pitchers:
Padres – Blake Snell
Cubs – Justin Steele
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7. The weather at Wrigley is going to be pretty damn cold with some wind blowing IN, which is why we see a 7 total. Snell has been pretty bad to begin the season but this feels like one of those get right spots, despite the Cubs having strong ISO numbers against LHPs. Steele is just disrespected as I see a lot of projections have him lower than he should be. I will continue to ride with Justin Steele!
SD 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jake Cronenworth
GPP Note: Team ISO of .169 against LHPs.
CHC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Patrick Wisdom, Nico Hoerner
GPP Note: Team ISO of .175 against LHPs.
Stacks of the Day: Main Slate
- Atlanta Braves
- St Louis Cardinals
- New York Mets
MLB Dinger of the Day – Teoscar Hernandez, Mariners
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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