Full Slate Breakdown for MLB DFS 4/23:
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My Take on a Consistent MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start an MLB slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target, but gives you a holistic look at the slate as well. Breaking down pitching also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the MLB Carnage Report this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the three pitchers that jumped out to me at first glance, good or bad.
- Jacob deGrom
- Kevin Gausman
- Hunter Greene
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Washington Nationals @ Minnesota Twins (-278)
Pitchers:
Nationals – Patrick Corbin
Twins – Bailey Ober
Rundown:
This game opened with a total of 8.5. I wish it wasn’t so cold in Minnesota today. According to Mark and our weather station this is the worst environment for hitters. We know that I LOOOOVE to pick on Corbin so I will certainly be doing so but it might not be with as many full stacks as normal. Ober has looked strong at AAA to begin the season and now he gets a pretty weak squad, despite the fact they put up 10 runs yesterday.
WSH 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jeimer Candelario
GPP Note: Team ISO of .095 against RHPs.
MIN 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Carlos Correa, Byron Buxton
GPP Note: Team ISO of .137 against LHPs.
Toronto Blue Jays (-140) @ New York Yankees
Pitchers:
Blue Jays – Kevin Gausman
Yankees – Clarke Schmidt
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. Gausman was dominant against the Yankees in 2022, striking out 16 over his 2 starts while allowing just 2 runs. he has struggled with Judge in their meetings but has K’d him 10x in 30 PAs. Schmidt has struggled MIGHTILY with LHBs so far this season but the Blue Jays don’t have a lot of them in their lineup. We know that guys like Springer, Bichette, and Vladdy can hit whoever is on the mound.
TOR 5-star plays: Daulton Varsho
4-star plays: Vlad Guerrero Jr, Kevin Kiermaier
GPP Note: Team ISO of .160 against RHPs.
NYY 5-star plays: Aaron Judge
4-star plays: Isiah Kiner-Falefa
GPP Note: Team ISO of .193 against RHPs.
Oakland Athletics @ Texas Rangers (-365)
Pitchers:
A’s – Kyle Muller
Rangers – Jacob deGrom
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7. Do we keep riding the Rangers bats at this point? They haven’t been great against LHPs so that does give me some concern but I think we just ride out a hot streak. Can we trust deGrom? That’s another story at this point but I would assume he’s good to go. The issue here is that he may have to be ramped back up as I am not sure he jumps back to 90+ pitches immediately. I expect them to handle him with some kid gloves and maybe top him around 85 pitches if things go smoothly.
OAK 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Brent Rooker
GPP Note: Team ISO of .131 against RHPs.
TEX 5-star plays: Marcus Semien
4-star plays: Josh Jung
GPP Note: Team ISO of .109 against LHPs.
Detroit Tigers @ Baltimore Orioles (-178)
Pitchers:
Tigers – Eduardo Rodriguez
Orioles – Grayson Rodriguez
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. We get some slightly better weather in Baltimore after Saturday’s wasn’t looking great. I ended up swapping my Mountcastle Dinger call to Trout yesterday afternoon and the VIP chat was alerted of that. He is back on my short list for today’s action. This feels like a coming out spot for Grayson Rodriguez as his underlying numbers have been far better than his posted stats so far.
DET 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Zach McKinstry
GPP Note: Team ISO of .123 against RHPs.
BAL 5-star plays: Ryan Mountcastle
4-star plays: Austin Hays, Jorge Mateo
GPP Note: Team ISO of .202 against LHPs.
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New York Mets (-115) @ San Francisco Giants
Pitchers:
Mets – Tylor Megill
Giants – Ross Stripling
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. An interesting stat for this match-up, the Mets roster is a combined 6 for 49 with 1 RBI against Stripling. The Mets bats have been pretty solid, specially Nimmo. I would imagine they have more success against Stripling today than in years past. I could see Megill surprising but I also could see him giving up a couple of HRs and 5 runs in 4-5 innings of work tonight.
NYM 5-star plays: Brandon Nimmo
4-star plays: Jeff McNeil, Pete Alonso
GPP Note: Team ISO of just .143 against RHPs.
SF 5-star plays: Mike Yastrzemski
4-star plays: Wilmer Flores
GPP Note: Team ISO of .211 against RHPs.
Miami Marlins @ Cleveland Guardians (-115)
Pitchers:
Marlins – Jesus Luzardo
Guardians – Logan Allen
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7. Soler has a ridiculous ISO of .818 against LHPs so far in 2023. Cooper is 10 for 15 against LHPs so far but he hasn’t done a whole lot as 9 of those 10 hits have been singles. The Guardians have hit just 3 HRs in nearly 270 PAs against LHPs so far this season. That number is not attractive at all but I have a hard time wanting to use Luzardo because they are striking out at just a 20% clip.
MIA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jorge Soler, Garrett Cooper
GPP Note: Team ISO of .125 against LHPs.
CLE 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jose Ramirez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .103 against LHPs.
Houston Astros @ Atlanta Braves (-140)
Pitchers:
Astros – Cristian Javier
Braves – Max Fried
Rundown:
This game opened with a total of 8. The Braves roster has 5 HRs in 50 PAs against Javier but they also have 20 strikeouts against him. Alvarez and Dubon are a combined 15 for 35 against LHPs so far in 2023. I don’t want to get too heavy in the offenses of this game as I think both SPs are very strong but there are some interesting numbers that makes taking a mini-stack very intriguing for GPP upside.
HOU 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Yordan Alvarez, Mauricio Dubon
GPP Note: Team ISO of just .199 against LHPs.
ATL 5-star plays: Ronald Acuna Jr.
4-star plays: Ozzie Albies
GPP Note: Team ISO of .162 against RHPs.
San Diego Padres (-145) @ Arizona Diamondbacks
Pitchers:
Padres – Yu Darvish
D’Backs – Drey Jameson
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. Jameson is still being stretched out and he dealt with some walks the last time out. I would think he throws up to about 85 pitches today which should be a decent amount. He has been somewhat impressive at the MLB level. He has given up 3 HRs in 16 innings this year so there is some concern in this match-up. Normally we think that Yu is an option for us but this doesn’t feel like the best of match-ups. There are a handful of ARI guys that have had strong at-bats against him over the last couple of seasons.
SD 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Fernando Tatis Jr, Xander Bogaerts
GPP Note: Team ISO of .157 against RHPs.
ARI 5-star plays: Corbin Carroll
4-star plays: Ketel Marte, Pavin Smith
GPP Note: Team ISO of .161 against RHPs.
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Cincinnati Reds @ Pittsburgh Pirates (-115)
Pitchers:
Reds – Hunter Greene
Pirates – Vince Velasquez
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. As I am writing this, I just learned that Reynolds will be out for PIT today, which is a boost to Greene. It’s tough to want to use any CIN bats as they have a team ISO of just .067 on the road this season. That number is disgustingly low. Greene feels like the ultimate feast or famine play today as he could just dominate and strike out 12 or he could give up 4 random HRs and be done after 3.
CIN 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: TJ Friedl
GPP Note: Team ISO of .112 against RHPs.
PIT 5-star plays: Jack Suwinski
4-star plays: Connor Joe
GPP Note: Team ISO of .202 against RHPs.
Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays (-165)
Pitchers:
White Sox – Lucas Giolito
Rays – Zach Eflin
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. Quick question, answer fast or you lose, which SP will I never roster for DFS/Best Ball/Season long action? You win if you snap guessed Lucas Giolito. The Rays have some guys that are hitting .400+ over the last week, with plenty of power (11 team HRs over the last 6 games). Eflin returns from the IL with a back issue. He didn’t make a rehab start and only threw a bullpen session so that has me worried but the game total is pretty damn low. The White Sox are hitting .199 over the last week.
CWS 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Yasmani Grandal
GPP Note: Team ISO of .150 against RHPs.
TB 5-star plays: Randy Arozarena
4-star plays: Josh Lowe, Yandy Diaz
GPP Note: Team ISO of .248 against RHPs.
Colorado Rockies @ Philadelphia Phillies (-320)
Pitchers:
Rockies – Jose Urena
Phillies – Zack Wheeler
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. This is a stand-alone game early on Peacock so it’s most likely just a showdown option. Wheeler is in a great spot while the Phillies offense should feast on whatever it is that Urena throws up at the dish. The biggest question I have is how far will Kyle Schwarber’s HR ball travel? I am going to go out on a limb and say 447 feet to right center field. Who else is going deep for Philly?
COL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Charlie Blackmon
GPP Note: Team ISO of .1243 against RHPs.
PHI 5-star plays: Kyle Schwarber
4-star plays: Trea Turner, Brandon Marsh
GPP Note: Team ISO of .167 against RHPs.
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Los Angeles Dodgers (-140) @ Chicago Cubs
Pitchers:
Dodgers – Clayton Kershaw
Cubs – Marcus Stroman
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7. This is a super low total in Wrigley so you can expect it to be cold. My thoughts are that it goes over the total with how the offenses have been performing in this series. Kershaw has been solid but hasn’t been overly sharp to begin the season while Stroman has been pitching out of his butt and should be due for some regression. My dude Outman just keeps destroying baseballs at the MLB level.
LAD 5-star plays: James Outman
4-star plays: David Peralta, Max Muncy
GPP Note: Team ISO of .236 against RHPs.
CHC 5-star plays: Nico Hoerner
4-star plays: Patrick Wisdom
GPP Note: Team ISO of .182 against LHPs.
Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Angels (-220)
Pitchers:
Royals – Jordan Lyles
Angels – Reid Detmers
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9.5. I was shocked to see a 9.5 total in this one but I love the idea that the Angels put up runs today. The LAA roster has dominated against Lyles in previous match-ups, combining to go 28 for 88 with an OPS of .912. Detmers could be a great option as the Royals aren’t all that dangerous offensively and I really believe in Detmers talent and his long term upside.
KC 5-star plays: Bobby Witt Jr.
4-star plays: Matt Duffy
GPP Note: Team ISO of .158 against LHPs.
LAA 5-star plays: Mike Trout
4-star plays: Jake Lamb, Brandon Drury
GPP Note: Team ISO of .141 against RHPs.
Boston Red Sox @ Milwaukee Brewers (-170)
Pitchers:
Red Sox – Brayan Bello
Brewers – Corbin Burnes
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. Burnes hasn’t been very sharp so far in 2023 so that gives me some concern. With that said, I don’t think we can start to just fully stack against him. Bello has all the talent in the world but his MLB starts have been all over the place. I’m not a huge believer in the Milwaukee offense overall so it’s tough to get behind them but they are in a spot that could reward us with some upside. Bello could shut them down over 6 innings or he could allow 10 baserunners in 3 innings.
BOS 5-star plays: Rafael Devers
4-star plays: Alex Verdugo
GPP Note: Team ISO of .187 against RHPs.
MIL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Rowdy Tellez, Willy Adames
GPP Note: Team ISO of .160 against RHPs.
St Louis Cardinals @ Seattle Mariners (EVEN)
Pitchers:
Cardinals – Jack Flaherty
Mariners – Chris Flexen
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. I really think this game has a shot to push to 12+ runs with these two on the mound. Flaherty has pulled some houdini stuff in his starts as he’s walking way too many guys without racking up strikeouts. Flexen doesn’t scare anybody at this point and I love the way some of the Cardinals’ bats have been getting it done recently. I wouldn’t be shocked if we see 3+ HRs in this game (big limb I’m going out on).
STL 5-star plays: Nolan Gorman
4-star plays: Tommy Edman, Willson Contreras
GPP Note: Team ISO of .144 against RHPs.
SEA 5-star plays: Eugenio Suarez
4-star plays: Jared Kelenic, Julio Rodriguez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .149 against RHPs.
Stacks of the Day: Main Slate
- Toronto Blue Jays
- Tampa Bay Rays
- Texas Rangers
MLB Dinger of the Day – Daulton Varsho, Blue Jays
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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