Full Slate Breakdown for MLB DFS 4/22:
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My Take on a Consistent MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start an MLB slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target, but gives you a holistic look at the slate as well. Breaking down pitching also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the MLB Carnage Report this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the three pitchers that jumped out to me at first glance, good or bad.
- Pablo Lopez
- Shane McClanahan
- Dustin May
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Washington Nationals @ Minnesota Twins (-285)
Pitchers:
Nationals – Chad Kuhl
Twins – Pablo Lopez
Rundown:
This game opened with a total of 7. Lopez has been an absolute beast for MIN and got a great contract extension recently. The Twins offense has really sputtered of late and I think they are going to have experiences like this throughout the season. If the lineup was in a good spot right now, they would absolutely crush Kuhl in this spot. Buxton might be my sneaky play on the day slate as I think he’s busting out a bit.
WSH 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: NONE
GPP Note: Team ISO of .081 against RHPs.
MIN 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Joey Gallo, Byron Buxton
GPP Note: Team ISO of .150 against RHPs.
Toronto Blue Jays @ New York Yankees (-165)
Pitchers:
Blue Jays – Alek Manoah
Yankees – Gerrit Cole
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. Manoah has looked like absolute trash in 3 of his 4 starts, with a ton of walks to go with very little K upside. He did dominate against KC but that came with 4 walks as well. I have zero desire to use him against the Yankees and Gerrit Cole. Cole is definitely somebody I want to be using, even against the TOR offense. He has double-digit Ks in 2 of his 4 starts, allowing just 3 runs total to begin the season. The Blue Jays have definitely hit some HRs off of him but he’s striking guys out against them and that’s the key.
TOR 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Vlad Guerrero Jr, George Springer
GPP Note: Team ISO of .158 against RHPs.
NYY 5-star plays: Anthony Rizzo
4-star plays: Franchy Cordero, Oswald Peraza
GPP Note: Team ISO of .199 against RHPs.
Oakland Athletics @ Texas Rangers (-240)
Pitchers:
A’s – Shintaro Fujinami
Rangers – Andrew Heaney
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. Heaney has impressive K upside but he just isn’t going to go deep into a game at this point. We can pick on OAK but the two guys I have listed below have dominated against LHPs to begin the 2023 season. Fujinami has NOT been impressive at the MLB level at this point so I think Semien is going to be one of my favorite plays on the day. Fujinami has been a bit of a reverse splits guy so far.
OAK 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Esteury Ruiz, Carlos Perez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .101 against LHPs.
TEX 5-star plays: Marcus Semien
4-star plays: Nathaniel Lowe
GPP Note: Team ISO of .181 against RHPs.
Detroit Tigers @ Baltimore Orioles (-178)
Pitchers:
Tigers – Joey Wentz
Orioles – Kyle Gibson
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. I actually think Wentz is a solid SP but this BAL squad can do a TON of damage to LHPs. I have Mateo listed below but he has been dealing with an injury. I’m just hoping he returns thanks to his power/speed upside. Mountcastle is the early front runner for my Dinger of the Day call as he just absolutely destroys LHPs. Gibson will carry ownership because of the match-up but I just don’t know if he has a ton of upside overall.
DET 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Kerry Carpenter
GPP Note: Team ISO of .132 against RHPs.
BAL 5-star plays: Ryan Mountcastle
4-star plays: Austin Hays, Jorge Mateo
GPP Note: Team ISO of .211 against LHPs.
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New York Mets @ San Francisco Giants (-120)
Pitchers:
Mets – David Peterson
Giants – Logan Webb
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. This is an interesting spot to look at today. The Giants haven’t been good against LHPs so far this season but Peterson is coming off of a game in which he gave up 3 bombs to the Dodgers. He does have 2 very strong starts to go with his 2 very bad starts this season. Webb is definitely the better overall pitcher of the two but the issue he has is that the Mets aren’t striking out and they are definitely getting it done on the offensive side.
NYM 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Mark Canha, Francisco Lindor
GPP Note: Team ISO of just .144 against RHPs.
SF 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Wilmer Flores
GPP Note: Team ISO of .103 against LHPs.
Miami Marlins @ Cleveland Guardians (-140) – Game 1
Pitchers:
Marlins – Sandy Alcantara
Guardians – Shane Bieber
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7. Please realize that the pitching match-ups for the double header could get flip-flopped around. Teams have often switched their SPs leading up to game one. With that being said, I have no desire to make sure I get exposure to bats in this game. With two Cy Young winners facing off, in what I would imagine is a cold game, let’s just use the SPs and move onto other day games. If the pitching flip-flops then I think you will be able to use some bats (against either Garrett or Plesac).
MIA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Luis Arraez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .138 against RHPs.
CLE 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jose Ramirez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .114 against RHPs.
Miami Marlins @ Cleveland Guardians (-140) – Game 2
Pitchers:
Marlins – Braxton Garrett
Guardians – Zach Plesac
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7. Please realize that the pitching match-ups for the double header could get flip-flopped around. Teams have often switched their SPs leading up to game one. With that being said, I don’t love the game all that much. I do think we can use a guy or two as one-offs but like I said above, I wouldn’t be shocked if it’s another cold and gloomy day in CLE (still waiting on our weather station to update).
MIA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jorge Soler
GPP Note: Team ISO of .138 against RHPs.
CLE 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Oscar Gonzalez, Mike Zunino
GPP Note: Team ISO of .119 against LHPs.
Houston Astros @ Atlanta Braves (EVEN)
Pitchers:
Astros – Framber Valdez
Braves – Kyle Wright
Rundown:
This game opened with a total of 8.5. It’s crazy to see Yordan hitting LHPs FAR better than RHPs to begin the season. It’s only a matter of time before that changes a bit. Tucker has hit Wright hard in the past so he seems like the logical Houston bat. Framber has dominated against much of the Atlanta roster so it’s tough to try and push them as a winning stack tonight. I think the pitchers are more interesting than the bats at this point in the morning.
HOU 5-star plays: Kyle Tucker
4-star plays: Yordan Alvarez
GPP Note: Team ISO of just .113 against RHPs.
ATL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Austin Riley, Ronald Acuna
GPP Note: Team ISO of .155 against LHPs.
San Diego Padres (-155) @ Arizona Diamondbacks
Pitchers:
Padres – Joe Musgrove
D’Backs – Merrill Kelly
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9.5. Kelly hasn’t been overly sharp to begin this season, walking 4 batters in 3 of his 4 starts so far. He is coming off of his best performance but that included just 3 Ks. Maybe we see the Padres and dare I say, Tatis, explode? Musgrove wasn’t sharp during his rehab but he did rack up 14 Ks in his two starts. I would expect him to be a little rusty but the K upside is really intriguing.
SD 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Fernando Tatis Jr, Xander Bogaerts
GPP Note: Team ISO of .157 against RHPs.
ARI 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Corbin Carroll
GPP Note: Team ISO of .161 against RHPs.
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Cincinnati Reds @ Pittsburgh Pirates (-155)
Pitchers:
Reds – Luis Cessa
Pirates – Rich Hill
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. We get two pitchers that I love to pick on but the issue is that both offenses are blah overall. I realize the Pirates are rolling right now so that’s the side I am going to roll with today. The Reds just aren’t getting it done even though I think they could get to Hill at some point. Cessa has given up 16 runs over his last 6.2 innings of work, allowing 21 hits and 3 HRs with just 1 K.
CIN 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Kevin Newman
GPP Note: Team ISO of .142 against LHPs.
PIT 5-star plays: Jack Suwinski
4-star plays: Bryan Reynolds, Connor Joe
GPP Note: Team ISO of .198 against RHPs.
Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays (-190)
Pitchers:
White Sox – Dylan Cease
Rays – Shane McClanahan
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7. What a freaking pitching match-up. Two guys that battled it out in the Cy Young race last season before McClanahan faded with an injury. I expect both guys to compete for Cy’s over the next handful of years. I trust McClanahan quite a bit more right now as Cease is walking too man guys (12 over his last 3 starts). We could see both SPs combine for something like 18+ strikeouts in this one.
CWS 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Luis Robert
GPP Note: Team ISO of .167 against LHPs.
TB 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Wander Franco, Brandon Lowe
GPP Note: Team ISO of .256 against RHPs.
Colorado Rockies @ Philadelphia Phillies (-190)
Pitchers:
Rockies – Kyle Freeland
Phillies – Cristopher Sanchez
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9.5. The weather in Philly appears to be great for hitting but I also believe we could see some sneaky SP performances in this game, despite the total sitting at 9.5 runs. There definitely are some bats that profile pretty well in this game so it’s going to be tough to not put a team like Philly in my top 3 on their slate. Bryant-Cron might end up being one of my favorite mini-stacks against the LHP.
COL 5-star plays: Kris Bryant
4-star plays: CJ Cron
GPP Note: Team ISO of .128 against LHPs.
PHI 5-star plays: Trea Turner
4-star plays: Nick Castellanos, JT Realmuto
GPP Note: Team ISO of .144 against LHPs.
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Los Angeles Dodgers (-135) @ Chicago Cubs
Pitchers:
Dodgers – Dustin May
Cubs – Hayden Wesneski
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. It’s going to be extremely cold in Chicago so I really wonder about the 9 total. I will need to dig in more in regards to the exact wind direction as that could make a huge difference. There have been plenty of runs scored in this series and I would think that has a shot at continuing. If it’s really cold, May looks like a great option as his sinker is ridiculous, especially at 100 mph.
LAD 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Freddie Freeman, James Outman
GPP Note: Team ISO of .224 against RHPs.
CHC 5-star plays: Cody Bellinger
4-star plays: Patrick Wisdom
GPP Note: Team ISO of .167 against RHPs.
Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Angels (-190)
Pitchers:
Royals – Zack Greinke
Angels – Tyler Anderson
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9.5. If this game was during the day, I would be in love with it from a runs standpoint. Being at night takes away some of my excitement but it still feels like a game that I want plenty of exposure to. Trout let me down last night by getting the night off against Yarbrough. I might have to go back to him as my main play today but there are some others that I like for the Dinger call, as well.
KC 5-star plays: Bobby Witt Jr.
4-star plays: Salvador Perez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .151 against LHPs.
LAA 5-star plays: Mike Trout
4-star plays: Hunter Renfroe, Gio Urshela
GPP Note: Team ISO of .125 against RHPs.
Boston Red Sox @ Milwaukee Brewers (-130)
Pitchers:
Red Sox – Garrett Whitlock
Brewers – Wade Miley
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. The Red Sox bats have been rolling over the last week while the Brewers have been pretty cool overall, despite averaging about 4 runs per game. Whitlock looked great in his last start and I am really intrigued by him going forward. Miley has been pitching better than expected but I would think there is some regression coming up soon, maybe today but definitely soon.
BOS 5-star plays: Rafael Devers
4-star plays: Alex Verdugo, Justin Turner
GPP Note: Team ISO of .155 against LHPs.
MIL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Rowdy Tellez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .158 against RHPs.
St Louis Cardinals @ Seattle Mariners (-165)
Pitchers:
Cardinals – Miles Mikolas
Mariners – Luis Castillo
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. Contreras has crushed Castillo in their previous NL Central match-ups and he’s hitting the ball extremely well right now so he is an interesting one-off option on this slate. Castillo has been absolutely dominant in his 4 starts, allowing just 11 hits across 24.2 innings of work. On the other side, Suarez has destroyed Mikolas in their previous meetings.
STL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Nolan Arenado, Willson Contreras
GPP Note: Team ISO of .144 against RHPs.
SEA 5-star plays: Eugenio Suarez
4-star plays: Teoscar Hernandez, Julio Rodriguez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .141 against RHPs.
Stacks of the Day: Main Slate
- Los Angeles Angels
- San Diego Padres
- Seattle Mariners
MLB Dinger of the Day – Ryan Mountcastle, Orioles
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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