Hello again everybody, and welcome to today’s MLB Full Count breakdown! I’m nilly and I run the carnage report and DraftKings tiers tools. I also coach NASCAR, so be sure to check us out every weekend over there, too. We get another large slate for our Friday, this time of the 12-game variety. If you need to scratch the itch early, there are three games prior to those that you can choose from. Either way, there’s a lot to cover, so let’s get to it!
A look at pitchers
We get a lot of options on our main slate today, though at first glance, pretty much all of them seem to be average matchups or better for the starters. Somebody like Ohtani will be an easy all-purpose option with him going up against KC, but who you decide to use with him as an SP2 might be the more interesting discussion. As always be sure to check out the coach’s notes page to see who they are most interested in!
Early games
Los Angeles Dodgers at Chicago Cubs
We’ll kick things off with our early games, starting with the Dodgers and Cubs. We get a 9.5 total here, along with Urias and Smyly as the starters. This looks like a pretty standard way to start the day, and there won’t even be any weather concerns today! Hopefully the bats aren’t too tired from yesterday’s later-than-expected finish.
Dodgers 5 star plays – Betts/Freeman
Dodgers 4 star plays – Muncy
GPP note – Smyly is allowing a big chunk of power to lefties, so consider attacking him from that angle
Cubs 4.5 star plays – Happ/Wisdom/Suzuki
Cubs 3.5 star plays – Bellinger
GPP note – There are reverse splits in play against Urias as well, so don’t be afraid to try some lefties here either
Cincinnati Reds at Pittsburgh Pirates
Next up we have the Reds and Pirates, with Ashcraft and Keller on the mound. We get an 8.5 total here, along with some possible weather issues, though nothing that looks too severe. While I don’t think that there’s anything too wild that stands out here, these Pirates can seemingly turn it on at a moment’s notice, so perhaps today will be another one of those days for them.
Reds 4.5 star plays – India
Reds 3.5 star plays – Friedl
GPP note – Traditional splits work best against Keller, but there is still plenty of contact given up to lefties
Pirates 4.5 star plays – McCutchen/Reynolds
Pirates 4 star plays – Joe/Bae/Santana
GPP note – Ashcraft hasn’t been allowing a ton of power as of late, but still some good contact to righties
Chicago White Sox at Tampa Bay Rays
We’ll wrap up the early games with the White Sox and Rays, with Kopech and Faucher to get the start. We move up slightly to a 9.0 total for this one, but considering the starters, I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised to see this one go well beyond the over.
White Sox 4.5 star plays – Benintendi/Robert
White Sox 4 star plays – Burger
GPP note – They probably won’t see Faucher very long, but he allows power to both sides, so you can start with either hand here as it probably won’t matter which way you choose
Rays 5 star plays – Lowe/Franco
Rays 4 star plays – Arozarena/Diaz/Raley
GPP note – Kopech is allowing big power (in big spurts too, it would seem) to both sides of the plate, so you can take any of these hot bats against him
Main slate
Colorado Rockies at Philadelphia Phillies
We’ll switch over to the main slate now, starting with the Rockies and Phillies. We get Davis and Nola as the starters here, along with a modest 9.0 total. That will set the tone for most of the slate, as there aren’t really and standout games with huge totals. That said, I could see this one running a little flat, but we’ll see how that goes.
Rockies 4.5 star plays – Blackmon/McMahon
Rockies 4 star plays – Bryant/Cron
GPP note – Most of the power that Nola is allowing is going to lefties, so if you go here, it’s probably best to keep it simple
Phillies 4.5 star plays – Turner, Schwarber
Phillies 4 star plays – Marsh/Castellanos
GPP note – Davis has looked decent (good strikeout rate and very little power given up) and might be getting more innings, so he might be able to navigate these bats without getting beat up as badly as Vegas is predicting. That said, they have the highest total on the slate, so expect them to be chalky
Toronto Blue Jays at New York Yankees
Next up we have the Blue Jays and Yankees, with Kikuchi and German on the mound. We only get an 8.5 total here, but we also have two of the most volatile starters out there, so expect this game to be very boom or very bust. I’d probably try to look elsewhere for cash games, but several pieces from this game could easily help somebody take down a tournament or two today.
Blue Jays 4 star plays – Guerrero/Springer
Blue Jays 3.5 star plays – Kiermaier
GPP note – It’s not a great matchup, but German does allow some power to lefties, so taking small groups against him isn’t a terrible idea
Yankees 5 star plays – Judge
Yankees 4 star plays – Rizzo/LeMahieu
GPP note – Kikuchi is as random as always, though coming off of such a strong performance could be the clue we need to figure he’s getting shelled today. He is allowing plenty of power to both sides of the plate
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Detroit Tigers at Baltimore Orioles
Moving right along, we next have Lorenzen and the Tigers taking on Wells and the Orioles. A 9.0 total, I really like this game as a source of cheap bats in good spots. You could try full stacks of some of these bats, or use them as a cheap secondary stack to allow you to pay up for whoever you’d like as a primary stack.
Tigers 4 star plays – Baez
Tigers 3.5 star plays – Baddoo
GPP note – There’s not a ton to love here, but Wells does allow some power to righties and these bats are cheap
Orioles 4.5 star plays – Mullins/Rutschman/Hays
Orioles 4 star plays – Matero/Mountcastle/Santander
GPP note – Lorenzen allows plenty to both sides of the plate, so the inexpensive bats down low are in a pretty good spot along with more more expensive ones up top
Miami Marlins at Cleveland Guardians
Garret and the Marlins will take on Plesac and the Guardians next, as we move down to an 8.0 total. As of right now the weather looks pretty bad, so keep an eye on that as the day progresses.
Marlins 4 star plays – Chisholm, Soler
Marlins 3.5 star plays – Arraez
GPP note – Traditional splits are your best bet against Plesac, provided they get a chance to see him today
Guardians 4.5 star plays – Ramirez
Guardians 4 star plays – Bell/Zunino
GPP note – Traditional splits are the way to go against Garrett as well, should this game play out
Houston Astros at Atlanta Braves
We’ll make our way south for our next two games, starting with the Astros and Braves. Vegas has this game split down the middle with an 8.5 total, and that’s mostly fair, I think. I see the Braves taking this one, though perhaps not by much, as there is solid pitching on both sides. It may just depend on which team can strike first against the other’s bullpen. If that winds up being the case, it’s going to be a bit difficult for many of these pricey bats to pay off.
Astros 5 star plays – Alvarez
Astros 4 star plays – Gregman
GPP note – Elder has been steady and hasn’t allowed a homer in his last three starts. However, he is allowing some good contact to righties, so perhaps one of them will get to him here
Braves 4.5star plays – Acuna
Braves 3.5 star plays – Murphy/Olson/Albies
GPP note – Brown isn’t allowing much of anything to either side and is collecting a fair share of strikeouts, so be a little cautious here
Oakland Athletics at Texas Rangers
Next up we have Sears and the Athletics taking o Gray and the Rangers. We drop down once again to an 8.0 total, and while that is lower than the previous game, most of these bats come in at a big discount. I do like the Tigers/Orioles game a little better for cheap bats, but this one isn’t a bad backup option.
Athletics 4 star plays – Ruiz
Athletics 3.5 star plays – Kemp
GPP note – Traditional splits seem to be the way to go against Gray, as that’s where all of the allowed contact and power is going
Rangers 4 star plays – Lowe/Heim
Rangers 3.5 star plays – Semien
GPP note – Same as above, except that Sears is allowing much more power (and also some good contact to lefties)
Boston Red Sox at Milwaukee Brewers
Our next game features Pivetta and the Red Sox taking on Peralta and the Brewers, along with an 8.5 total. Vegas prefers the home team here, and aside from a select bat or two, I can’t really disagree. Contrarian moves are in play here, but I’d probably keep it to a minimum.
Red Sox 4 star plays – Devers
Red Sox 3.5 star plays – Verdugo/Yoshida
GPP note – This isn’t a great matchup by any means, but Peralta does allow a little bit of power to lefties
Brewers 4.5 star plays – Yelich, Tellez
Brewers 4 star plays – Winker/Adames
GPP note – Pivetta allows more power to lefties, but also just a slight amount of xwOBA to righties, so both sides of the plate are in play here
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Washington Nationals at Minnesota Twins
Our next game has some potential weather issues to go with the lowest total on the day. What a stinker! If they play, we’ll see Williams and the Nationals take on Mahle and the Twins. If they don’t play, well, perhaps we won’t miss much. The best I can say about this game is that if they do play, there shouldn’t be much ownership coming from here.
Nationals 4 star plays – Candelario
Nationals 3.5 star plays – Call
GPP note – There’s not a ton to love here, but Mahle does allow good power to both sides of the plate. You could do worse for a budget pivot option
Twins 5 star plays – Correa
Twins 4 star plays – Buxton, Gallo
GPP note – Reverse splits are in play against Williams, so grab a righty or two or three
Late games
Kansas City Royals at Los Angeles Angels
We’ll head out west for our late games, starting with KC’s bullpen and the rest of my Royals facing off against Ohtani and the Angels. I think we all know what to expect here, so all I can really add is that I hope that my guys had a nice enjoyable flight out to LA, and have long forgotten about the 24 runs given up these last two games. Is it Mahomes season yet??
Royals 5 star plays – none
Royals 3.5 star plays – Perez, Witt
GPP note – 🙁
Angels 5 star plays – Trout
Angels 4 star plays – Renfroe/Rendon/Ward
GPP note – It’s business as usual here. I wouldn’t even bother with hand matchup as KC will probably go through pitchers somewhat quickly
San Diego Padres at Arizona Diamondbacks
Next up we have Lugo and the Padres taking on Gallen and the Diamondbacks. We get a 9.0 total for this one, which does seem fair, though I sort of see this one as a less-volatile version of the Blue Jays/Yankees game. By that I mean that I think we’ll be really under or really over, but a lot of that will depend on the starters, who I think are up to the task of keeping a lid on things for a while. We’ll see how it all plays out!
Padres 4.5 star plays – Soto, Machado
Padres 4 star plays – Bogaerts/Tatis
GPP note – Gallen allows decent power to righties, so that could be a good way to find a lower-owned power bat
Diamondbacks 4.5 star plays – Marte
Diamondbacks 4 star plays – Rojas, Gurriel
GPP note – Lugo isn’t allowing much power but he is allowing some decent contact to lefties, so don’t be afraid to take a small group of them here
St Louis Cardinals at Seattle Mariners
Matz and the Cardinals will take on Kirby and the Mariners next, as we move down to another 8.0 total. This game doesn’t look overly exciting, but I could see this one going over by a few runs with average (or less) ownership. It might not be by way of effort from everybody, but I think a handful of bats will shine.
Cardinals 4 star plays – Goldschmidt/Arenado
Cardinals 3.5 star plays – Donovan/Gorman
GPP note – Kirby isn’t throwing dominant strikeout stuff and is allowing some contact and power to lefties, so don’t let that sub-4.0 implied total scare you off completely
Mariners 5 star plays – Rodriguez
Mariners 4 star plays – France, Kelenic
GPP note – Matz is allowing all sorts of contact and power to righties, though almost nothing to lefties
New York Mets at San Francisco Giants
And finally, we’ll wrap up the day with the Mets and Giants. Lucchesi makes his return to send the Mets against DeSclafani and the Giants, and we end the day on an 8.5 total. Vegas has this one split mostly down the middle, but I think that the New York offense will prevail. How much damage Lucchesi does or does not allow is the question, as you never know how a pitcher will look upon their return.
Mets 4.5 star plays – Lindor/Nimmo
Mets 4 star plays – McNeil, Alonso
GPP note – DeSclafani has been solid but does allow a little bit of power to lefties, so that’s where I would attack him from
Giants 4.5 star plays – Estrada
Giants 4 star plays – Conforto
GPP note – There’s no telling where Lucchesi will be, but stacking against somebody in their season debut is always on the table
And that’s going to do it for this one. Thanks for joining me, and be sure to check out the coach’s notes page to see who they are most interested in. Best of luck today!
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