Full Slate Breakdown for MLB DFS 10/5:
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My Take on a Consistent MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start an MLB slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target, but gives you a holistic look at the slate as well. Breaking down pitching also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the MLB Carnage Report this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the three pitchers that jumped out to me at first glance, good or bad.
- Shohei Ohtani
- Corbin Burnes
- Framber Valdez
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Washington Nationals @ New York Mets
Pitchers:
Nationals – Erick Fedde
Mets – Undecided
Rundown:
We are waiting on the Mets to decide their pitching plans as the game means very little for them. With the MLB rosters only expanded to 28, with 14 max being pitchers, we can’t see lineups sitting every regular. The question will be whether teams like the Mets rest 4 or so or if they start a normal lineup and then PH a few guys after a couple of ABs. I like the Mets’ match-up with Fedde.
WSH 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Joey Menses
GPP Note: Team ISO of .099 over the last week.
NYM 5-star plays: Jeff McNeil
4-star plays: Pete Alonso
GPP Note: Team ISO of .166 over the last week.
St Louis Cardinals @ Pittsburgh Pirates
Pitchers:
Cardinals – Matthew Liberatore
Pirates – Johan Oviedo
Rundown:
We are waiting on the Cardinals and Vegas numbers. I would guess that we might see Montgomery for a couple of innings but they are still finalizing their postseason pitching plans. It could be a regular bullpen game for them if they feel like Montgomery is their #2 or 3 for the postseason. Oviedo is an interesting option as he should see a normal start against what I assume isn’t the best STL lineup possible. *UPDATE* Looks like STL will go with the rookie Liberatore to close out the regular season. He’s an interesting play as he did dominate PIT in a start earlier this season but he also was knocked around by them in another start.
STL 5-star plays: Dylan Carlson
4-star plays: Paul Goldschmidt
GPP Note: Team ISO of .174 over the last week.
PIT 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Oneil Cruz
GPP Note: Team ISO of .111 over the last week.
Colorado Rockies @ Los Angeles Dodgers (-335)
Pitchers:
Rockies – Austin Gomber
Dodgers – Clayton Kershaw
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. Kershaw would be on my list but I really worry about him going 3-4 innings before giving way to the weaker side of the bullpen. This is one of the match-ups that I really want to look into bullpen usage of late to figure out where each team might go. The Dodgers haven’t been sharp so I can see them getting main guys 3 ABs to get ready for the postseason. Gomber has been really bad for COL this season so I could see a little bit of a wake up for the LAD lineup.
COL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Randal Grichuk, Brendan Rodgers
GPP Note: Team ISO of .169 over the last week.
LAD 5-star plays: Freddie Freeman
4-star plays: Mookie Betts, Justin Turner
GPP Note: Team ISO of .099 over the last week.
Los Angeles Angels (-250) @ Oakland Athletics
Pitchers:
Angels – Shohei Ohtani
A’s – Ken Waldichuk
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7. It looks like the total in this one has dropped since I began putting together this article. I do think that we get a normal Ohtani workload to a degree (maybe not 100 pitches) but there hasn’t been anything definitive yet. The match-up for LAA is inviting but I could see the lineup being a bit different. I do want to see Trout hit #40 though.
LAA 5-star plays: Mike Trout, Taylor Ward
4-star plays: Livan Soto, Luis Rengifo
GPP Note: Team ISO of .160 over the last week.
OAK 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Conner Capel
GPP Note: Team ISO of .095 over the last week.
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Arizona Diamondbacks @ Milwaukee Brewers (-178)
Pitchers:
Diamondbacks – Merrill Kelly
Brewers – Corbin Burnes
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7. I really like this pitching match-up but are we going to get 6 innings from either guy? I am not sure of the answer to that. Burnes could finish off the season with one last strong performance while racking up the NL K crown. Kelly has been strong when facing most other than the Dodgers. Neither offense is performing all that great but I think we could see a somewhat normal lineup from both.
ARI 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Daulton Varsho, Corbin Carroll
GPP Note: Team ISO of .114 over the last week.
MIL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Willy Adames
GPP Note: Team ISO of .134 over the last week.
New York Yankees (-155) @ Texas Rangers
Pitchers:
Yankees – Domingo German
Rangers – Glenn Otto
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. I am really intrigued by this game. I realize that the Yankees have been resting guys over the last few days but there are a couple of things in play here. First off, Judge needs to go 4 for 4 to get to where Arraez is for the batting title (depending on if Arraez plays). The Triple Crown HAS to carry some weight for Judge. Secondly, the young NYY bats have actually performed quite well and I would have NO problem at all stacking them up in my builds.
NYY 5-star plays: Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton
4-star plays: Gleyber Torres
GPP Note: Team ISO of .173 over the last week.
TEX 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Marcus Semien
GPP Note: Team ISO of .142 over the last week.
Philadelphia Phillies @ Houston Astros (-190)
Pitchers:
Phillies – Bailey Falter
Astros – Framber Valdez
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. Valdez hasn’t been sharp but I can see this match-up going well for him if the Phillies go with mostly a bench lineup as a lot of the extra PHI bats are LH. Falter can be a decent play but I like the HOU lineup. The worry is that we see a normal HOU lineup again and they give the regulars at the top (the vets) just 2 ABs.
PHI 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jean Segura, Rhys Hoskins
GPP Note: Team ISO of .166 over the last week.
HOU 5-star plays: Jose Altuve
4-star plays: Jeremy Pena
GPP Note: Team ISO of .165 over the last week.
San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres
Pitchers:
Giants – John Brebbia
Padres – Undecided
Rundown:
We are waiting on the pitching announcements. There is so much up in the air with this game. Obviously the pitching is going to be extremely important while the Padres probably give a guy like Machado the day off before the postseason starts on Friday. There are enough guys in this game that I think we can use either side as mini-stacks, again, depending on what the pitching is like.
SF 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Joc Pederson
GPP Note: Team ISO of .149 over the last week.
SD 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jake Cronenworth
GPP Note: Team ISO of .119 over the last week.
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Kansas City Royals @ Cleveland Guardians (-178)
Pitchers:
Royals – Jon Heasley
Guardians – Aaron Civale
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. The Cleveland side of this game really intrigues me. If we find out that they are going to let Civale throw a normal appearance, he becomes an interesting SP2 on DK. I like the match-up for the CLE hitters but I am wondering what their lineup might look like. Both Kwan and Ramirez have had strong success against Heasley in previous match-ups.
KC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Drew Waters, Vinnie Pasquantino
GPP Note: Team ISO of .110 over the last week.
CLE 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Steven Kwan, Jose Ramirez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .110 over the last week.
Tampa Bay Rays @ Boston Red Sox (-135)
Pitchers:
Rays – Josh Fleming
Red Sox – Nick Pivetta
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. If the weather doesn’t ruin our day, this could be the game to target. Both of the SPs can be hit hard and I don’t think the Rays want to waste their main bullpen arms prior to this weekend’s series. The Red Sox have ridiculously strong BvP against Fleming, which only excites me more for this one.
TB 5-star plays: Wander Franco
4-star plays: Randy Arozarena, Isaac Paredes
GPP Note: Team ISO of .100 over the last week.
BOS 5-star plays: Xander Bogaerts, Bobby Dalbec
4-star plays: Kike Hernandez, Rafael Devers
GPP Note: Team ISO of .133 over the last week.
Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners (-155)
Pitchers:
Tigers – Tyler Alexander
Mariners – Marco Gonzales
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. Gonzales has given up 9 HRs over his last 5 starts. That’s a dangerous statistic but the issue is that the Tigers have hit the fewest HRs in baseball this season. I would expect Gonzales to throw a normal amount of pitches to stay sharp as I don’t think he’s going to be used out of the bullpen and he’s definitely not going to be in the postseason rotation. If we get a normal SEA lineup, they are definitely in play for us today.
DET 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Javy Baez, Eric Haase
GPP Note: Team ISO of .161 over the last week.
SEA 5-star plays: Mitch Haniger
4-star plays: Eugenio Suarez, Julio Rodriguez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .141 over the last week.
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Atlanta Braves @ Miami Marlins
Pitchers:
Braves – Undecided
Marlins – Elieser Hernandez
Rundown:
We are waiting on the Vegas information. Hernandez will serve more as an opener than a starter, I would guess. The Braves might go with a bullpen game or they could find somebody from their minors to come up and throw this one today. I would expect the ATL lineup to rest a couple of regulars, such as Acuna and maybe Swanson. I really like the De La Cruz-Sanchez combo as long as the Braves don’t schedule an LHP.
ATL 5-star plays: Matt Olson
4-star plays: Marcell Ozuna
GPP Note: Team ISO of .168 over the last week.
MIA 5-star plays: Bryan De La Cruz
4-star plays: Jesus Sanchez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .102 over the last week.
Minnesota Twins @ Chicago White Sox (-120)
Pitchers:
Twins – Louie Varland
White Sox – Davis Martin
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. I actually like this game from a pitching standpoint. Martin has been really solid as the season has been winding down. A few of the MIN bats are swinging it decently well but I could see Correa and Arraez sitting this one out. Varland can be decent and the White Sox probably sit a couple of vets as they allow a couple of young guys to get some action today.
MIN 5-star plays: Carlos Correa
4-star plays: Luis Arraez, Gio Urshela
GPP Note: Team ISO of .103 over the last week.
CWS 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Elvis Andrus, Gavin Sheets
GPP Note: Team ISO of .123 over the last week.
Toronto Blue Jays (EVEN) @ Baltimore Orioles – Game 1
Pitchers:
Blue Jays – Trevor Richards
Orioles – Mike Baumann
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. I am pretty upset over the late calling of the game last night. Mainly upset because I was in a smash spot with a couple of lineups that had multiple guys on base plus Whit Merrifield coming to the plate with the bases loaded. Oh, what could have been! I will be going back to this game again tonight. I think that the Blue Jays are heating up as the playoffs approach and the young Orioles are still performing despite fading in the postseason race.
TOR 5-star plays: Whit Merrifield, Bo Bichette
4-star plays: Teoscar Hernandez, George Springer
GPP Note: Team ISO of .203 over the last week.
BAL 5-star plays: Adley Rutschman
4-star plays: Ryan Mountcastle, Cedric Mullins
GPP Note: Team ISO of .160 over the last week.
Toronto Blue Jays (EVEN) @ Baltimore Orioles – Game 2
Pitchers:
Blue Jays – Undecided
Orioles – Spenser Watkins
Rundown:
We are waiting on the Vegas information. I wouldn’t be shocked to see TOR go with Mitch White since he was supposed to start yesterday. I would assume they are still making decisions on their postseason pitching plans. If we get somewhat normal TOR lineups (we should see their main guys play in at least 1 of the 2 today), I like the upside that the bats offer us so I hope the regulars play game 2 over game 1 (I’m greedy).
TOR 5-star plays: Whit Merrifield, Bo Bichette
4-star plays: Teoscar Hernandez, George Springer
GPP Note: Team ISO of .203 over the last week.
BAL 5-star plays: Adley Rutschman
4-star plays: Ryan Mountcastle, Cedric Mullins
GPP Note: Team ISO of .160 over the last week.
Chicago Cubs (-125) @ Cincinnati Reds
Pitchers:
Cubs – Adrian Sampson
Reds – Graham Ashcraft
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. Maybe this ends up being the game to target, as 8.5 puts it at the top of the slate in terms of totals. I would expect both SPs to be allowed to throw 80+ pitches as long as they aren’t surrendering HRs. This game offers us the best hitting environment so I might make sure I have exposure to this game in nearly every lineup I build today. We have to take some stands on the last day of the season and this might be my stand.
CHC 5-star plays: Christopher Morel
4-star plays: Ian Happ, Franmil Reyes
GPP Note: Team ISO of .150 over the last week.
CIN 5-star plays: Jake Fraley
4-star plays: Jonathan India, Kyle Farmer
GPP Note: Team ISO of .111 over the last week.
Stacks of the Day: Main Slate
- Boston Red Sox
- Chicago Cubs
- Cincinnati Reds
MLB Dinger of the Day – Mike Trout, LAA (I need a double-dong day)
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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