Full Slate Breakdown for MLB DFS 10/4:
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My Take on a Consistent MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start an MLB slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target, but gives you a holistic look at the slate as well. Breaking down pitching also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the MLB Carnage Report this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the three pitchers that jumped out to me at first glance, good or bad.
- Jeffrey Springs
- Zac Gallen
- Julio Urias
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Washington Nationals @ New York Mets (-320) – Game 1
Pitchers:
Nationals – Cory Abbott
Mets – Carlos Carrasco
Rundown:
This game opened with a total of 7.5. The Mets NEED Carrasco to wake back up and get them a W tonight. They were spanked by the Braves over the weekend and they need to win out while asking ATL to lose out in order to get the Division. I like the LHBs of the Mets a decent chunk against Abbott today.
WSH 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Joey Menses
GPP Note: Team ISO of .100 over the last week.
NYM 5-star plays: Jeff McNeil
4-star plays: Eduardo Escobar, Daniel Vogelbach
GPP Note: Team ISO of .103 over the last week.
Washington Nationals @ New York Mets (-267) – Game 2
Pitchers:
Nationals – Paolo Espino
Mets – Taijuan Walker
Rundown:
This game opened with a total of 7. I really like the Mets in this one as well, even if they have struggled of late. The Braves took an L last night so the Mets should come out with a little bit of fire. Walker should be a pretty solid option for us against an extremely weak lineup. McNeil has been swinging it well and should be somebody we can rely on today/tonight.
WSH 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Joey Menses, Lane Thomas
GPP Note: Team ISO of .100 over the last week.
NYM 5-star plays: Jeff McNeil
4-star plays: Pete Alonso
GPP Note: Team ISO of .103 over the last week.
St Louis Cardinals (-115) @ Pittsburgh Pirates
Pitchers:
Cardinals – Dakota Hudson
Pirates – JT Brubaker
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. I am not sure what to do with the Cardinals in this one. They are willing to rest guys or PH for some guys early after they get an at-bat or two to stay fresh. They do have some solid history against Brubaker but will that be enough for us tonight? I will probably stay away from this game for the most part, maybe ending up on a hitter from either side as a one-off GPP piece.
STL 5-star plays: Dylan Carlson
4-star plays: Nolan Arenado, Paul Goldschmidt
GPP Note: Team ISO of .174 over the last week.
PIT 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Oneil Cruz, Jack Suwinski
GPP Note: Team ISO of .111 over the last week.
Colorado Rockies @ Los Angeles Dodgers (-385)
Pitchers:
Rockies – Ryan Feltner
Dodgers – Julio Urias
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. I love me some Urias overall and tonight is going to be no different. The guys that have hit him well for the Rockies haven’t been in the lineup much recently. He’s an under-the-radar Cy Young candidate that I believe shouldn’t be under-the-radar. The Dodgers let us down last night but I pointed out in this article that I wasn’t going to be as high on the Dodgers as we normally would be.
COL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: CJ Cron
GPP Note: Team ISO of .124 over the last week.
LAD 5-star plays: Freddie Freeman
4-star plays: Mookie Betts, Max Muncy
GPP Note: Team ISO of .084 over the last week.
Los Angeles Angels (-135) @ Oakland Athletics
Pitchers:
Angels – Michael Lorenzen
A’s – Cole Irvin
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7. I was high on them last night and I am going to be high on them again tonight. The Angels have had some strong performances recently and they also have had some match-ups where they had plus BvP history as well. We should be riding the hot teams as the season winds down. Lorenzen intrigues me as a deep GPP option but he’s probably more of an SP2 on DK than your SP on FD.
LAA 5-star plays: Mike Trout, Taylor Ward
4-star plays: Shohei Ohtani, Luis Rengifo
GPP Note: Team ISO of .174 over the last week.
OAK 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Conner Capel
GPP Note: Team ISO of .100 over the last week.
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Arizona Diamondbacks (-115) @ Milwaukee Brewers
Pitchers:
Diamondbacks – Zac Gallen
Brewers – Eric Lauer
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7. My love affair of Zac Gallen is widely known. I will be on him again as he makes his last start of 2022. If we want to talk about under-the-radar Cy Young candidates, Gallen is the poster boy. He has allowed just 14 runs over his last 14 starts, which included a 7 straight start stretch in which he allowed 0 runs. The Brewers were eliminated last night so there might be a bit of a hangover plus they’ve been struggling as it is.
ARI 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Carson Kelly, Christian Walker
GPP Note: Team ISO of .144 over the last week.
MIL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Christian Yelich
GPP Note: Team ISO of .117 over the last week.
New York Yankees (-135) @ Texas Rangers – Game 1
Pitchers:
Yankees – Jameson Taillon
Rangers – Jon Gray
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7. I am going to go out on that trusty limb today and say that if Judge plays both games of the DH, he hits #62. Taillon gets the Rangers at a pretty decent time so I think he’s an interesting option. The Yankees lineup has been performing decently of late, with some lesser known guys stepping up. I wouldn’t be shocked to see Stanton hit another HR in this game.
NYY 5-star plays: Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton
4-star plays: Gleyber Torres, Josh Donaldson
GPP Note: Team ISO of .131 over the last week.
TEX 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Nathaniel Lowe, Corey Seager
GPP Note: Team ISO of .138 over the last week.
New York Yankees (-178) @ Texas Rangers – Game 2
Pitchers:
Yankees – Gerrit Cole
Rangers – Undecided
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7. We don’t know who the Rangers will send out for Game 2 but I don’t think it matters a whole lot. I would assume it turns into some sort of a bullpen game with the Yankees being in a great spot. I could see Cole putting up a ridiculous performance to close out his regular season as he has fared really well against most of the TEX lineup.
NYY 5-star plays: Aaron Judge
4-star plays: Gleyber Torres, Giancarlo Stanton
GPP Note: Team ISO of .131 over the last week.
TEX 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Adolis Garcia
GPP Note: Team ISO of .138 over the last week.
Philadelphia Phillies @ Houston Astros (-190)
Pitchers:
Phillies – Ranger Suarez
Astros – Justin Verlander
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7. With the Phillies clinching a postseason spot last night, I could see guys like Harper, Schwarber, and Realmuto getting the night off against Verlander. If we see a weakened PHI lineup tonight, I will be on Verlander quite a bit as he tries to solidify his Cy Young case. Suarez has been really good on the road but is tonight the night to trust him? I am not really sure at this point but I will definitely dig into him as the day goes on.
PHI 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Kyle Schwarber, Bryce Harper
GPP Note: Team ISO of .170 over the last week.
HOU 5-star plays: Jose Altuve
4-star plays: Jeremy Pena
GPP Note: Team ISO of .177 over the last week.
San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres (-140)
Pitchers:
Giants – Undecided
Padres – Sean Manaea
Rundown:
This game opened with a total of 7. I haven’t seen anything from the Giants in regards to pitching tonight. Manaea has been terrible for SD much of the second half so the Giants intrigue me a bit for GPP purposes. With the Padres in the postseason, I wonder if they get Machado and Soto a day off leading up to the postseason. I don’t think I will be full-stacking either side but I do think a case can be made for mini-stacks.
SF 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Wilmer Flores, JD Davis
GPP Note: Team ISO of .192 over the last week.
SD 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Manny Machado, Juan Soto
GPP Note: Team ISO of .106 over the last week.
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Kansas City Royals @ Cleveland Guardians (-190)
Pitchers:
Royals – Daniel Lynch
Guardians – Cal Quantrill
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. I am glad this game is earlier than the main slate as I just don’t have a whole lot of interest in this game. Waters has started to boil for the Royals while we know that the top half of the CLE lineup is always dangerous. Neither SP really excites me but I guess if I want to mainly be off of the bats, we should consider the SPs as GPP plays.
KC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Drew Waters, Salvador Perez (DTD)
GPP Note: Team ISO of .145 over the last week.
CLE 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Amed Rosario, Jose Ramirez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .091 over the last week.
Tampa Bay Rays (-120) @ Boston Red Sox
Pitchers:
Rays – Jeffrey Springs
Red Sox – Nathan Eovaldi
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. Eovaldi returned from the IL and managed to throw 72 pitches, which bodes well for him to get to around 90 in this one. I think both SPs have some upside to them as there are Ks to be had and each lineup has some weak spots. I have been impressed by Springs all season long so I will continue to roll with him because I think he goes overlooked way more than he should.
TB 5-star plays: Wander Franco
4-star plays: Manuel Margot
GPP Note: Team ISO of .111 over the last week.
BOS 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Kike Hernandez, Rafael Devers
GPP Note: Team ISO of .124 over the last week.
Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners (-165) – Game 1
Pitchers:
Tigers – Eduardo Rodriguez
Mariners – Chris Flexen
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. Flexen hasn’t made a start in nearly 2 months and has gone over 2 innings just once since that start on Aug 6th. I am not sure what to expect from him in terms of pitch count so he probably isn’t somebody we can rely on. Rodriguez always has upside but I think it’s a tough match-up for him today.
DET 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Akil Baddoo, Riley Greene
GPP Note: Team ISO of .123 over the last week.
SEA 5-star plays: Mitch Haniger
4-star plays: Ty France, Julio Rodriguez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .113 over the last week.
Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners – Game 2
Pitchers:
Tigers – Undecided
Mariners – Justus Sheffield
Rundown:
We are waiting on a ton of information for this game. Neither team has hinted at their SP plans as far as I have seen this morning. I will do my best to get back in here and update this as soon as we know who is pitching, as I think SEA is in play since DET’s SPs have been pretty weak overall.
DET 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Akil Baddoo
GPP Note: Team ISO of .123 over the last week.
SEA 5-star plays: Mitch Haniger
4-star plays: Ty France, Julio Rodriguez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .113 over the last week.
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Atlanta Braves (-165) @ Miami Marlins
Pitchers:
Braves – Jake Odorizzi
Marlins – Braxton Garrett
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. I know we hate to admit it but teams that come off of an extremely emotional series (like the Braves sweep against the Mets) tend to lay an egg immediately after. I do think they wake up a little bit here but I do have some worries about an extended hangover. The Marlins could be the sneaky play of the day/night as Odorizzi has NOT been sharp at all for ATL and De La Cruz has been rolling at the plate for the Marlins.
ATL 5-star plays: Austin Riley
4-star plays: Travis d’Arnaud, Dansby Swanson
GPP Note: Team ISO of .218 over the last week.
MIA 5-star plays: Bryan De La Cruz
4-star plays: Brian Anderson
GPP Note: Team ISO of .105 over the last week.
Minnesota Twins @ Chicago White Sox (-140)
Pitchers:
Twins – Josh Winder
White Sox – Lucas Giolito
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. I think the general thought will be to flock to the pitchers in this game and while I get the idea, I would prefer to gamble on the bats waking up a little bit. Giolito tends to always draw ownership but let’s be real for a second, he has been pretty bad since the MLB crackdown on pitchers using substances. Winder has been serviceable since his hot stretch early in the season but he isn’t somebody that we can trust, even if the White Sox lineup has kind of checked out.
MIN 5-star plays: Carlos Correa
4-star plays: Luis Arraez, Gio Urshela
GPP Note: Team ISO of .114 over the last week.
CWS 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Elvis Andrus, Gavin Sheets
GPP Note: Team ISO of .099 over the last week.
Toronto Blue Jays (-120) @ Baltimore Orioles
Pitchers:
Blue Jays – Mitch White
Orioles – Mike Baumann
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. I am pretty upset over the late calling of the game last night. Mainly upset because I was in a smash spot with a couple of lineups that had multiple guys on base plus Whit Merrifield coming to the plate with the bases loaded. Oh, what could have been! I will be going back to this game again tonight. I think that the Blue Jays are heating up as the playoffs approach and the young Orioles are still performing despite fading in the postseason race.
TOR 5-star plays: Whit Merrifield, Bo Bichette
4-star plays: Teoscar Hernandez, George Springer
GPP Note: Team ISO of .203 over the last week.
BAL 5-star plays: Adley Rutschman
4-star plays: Anthony Santander, Cedric Mullins
GPP Note: Team ISO of .160 over the last week.
Chicago Cubs @ Cincinnati Reds (-115)
Pitchers:
Cubs – Javier Assad
Reds – Luis Cessa
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. Despite both teams being very below average, this game has one of the highest totals on the slate. I do think there are a few HRs hit but it’s really difficult to pinpoint who is going to be the one to step up. I have no interest in either SP while also not having a ton of interest in fully stacking either side. The guys listed below are who I think are most likely to hit the HRs tonight.
CHC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Ian Happ, Willson Contreras
GPP Note: Team ISO of .143 over the last week.
CIN 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jake Fraley, Aristides Aquino
GPP Note: Team ISO of .089 over the last week.
Stacks of the Day: Main Slate
- Toronto Blue Jays
- Los Angeles Angels
- New York Yankees
MLB Dinger of the Day – Taylor Ward, LAA and Jose Altuve, HOU
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