Full Slate Breakdown for MLB DFS 10/03:
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My Take on a Consistent MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start an MLB slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target, but gives you a holistic look at the slate as well. Breaking down pitching also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the MLB Carnage Report this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the three pitchers that jumped out to me at first glance, good or bad.
- Brandon Woodruff
- Bryce Elder
- Hunter Greene
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Washington Nationals @ New York Mets (-320)
Pitchers:
Nationals – Cory Abbott
Mets – Carlos Carrasco
Rundown:
This game opened with a total of 7.5. The Mets NEED Carrasco to wake back up and get them a W tonight. They were spanked by the Braves over the weekend and they need to win out while asking ATL to lose out in order to get the Division. I like the LHBs of the Mets a decent chunk against Abbott tonight.
WSH 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Joey Menses
GPP Note: Team ISO of .100 over the last week.
NYM 5-star plays: Jeff McNeil
4-star plays: Eduardo Escobar, Daniel Vogelbach
GPP Note: Team ISO of .103 over the last week.
St Louis Cardinals @ Pittsburgh Pirates
Pitchers:
Cardinals – Undecided
Pirates – Mitch Keller
Rundown:
Waiting on the Vegas information which coincides with waiting on the STL starting pitcher. I know that Keller has surprised me a bit with how he has adjusted and he could be one of those sneaky GPP winning pitchers tonight. The Cardinals are a dangerous offense but they can randomly afford to sit guys in preparation for the postseason. Initially I saw that STL was going to be throwing Mikolas tonight but that might be changing.
STL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Nolan Arenado, Paul Goldschmidt
GPP Note: Team ISO of .186 over the last week.
PIT 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Oneil Cruz, Ben Gamel
GPP Note: Team ISO of .093 over the last week.
Colorado Rockies @ Los Angeles Dodgers (-355)
Pitchers:
Rockies – Jose Urena
Dodgers – Tony Gonsolin
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. The LAD offense has been a bit sluggish over the last week but a few bats have hit Urena well, especially Freeman. Gonsolin is making his return from the IL so we need to monitor the news on his workload as the Dodgers get him ready for the postseason. The Dodgers should be popular tonight and while I agree with the spot, I might end up going with mini-stacks with how cold they have been overall.
COL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Randal Grichuk, Brendan Rodgers
GPP Note: Team ISO of .136 over the last week.
LAD 5-star plays: Freddie Freeman
4-star plays: Mookie Betts, Cody Bellinger
GPP Note: Team ISO of .083 over the last week.
Los Angeles Angels (-178) @ Oakland Athletics
Pitchers:
Angels – Patrick Sandoval
A’s – Adrian Martinez
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7. I am very interested in the LAA side of this game. Their offense has picked it up to close out the season and we know that Martinez has been smacked around a decent amount at the MLB level. Sandoval is a guy that I always feel like I should be using and while he is on the road, where his numbers aren’t as great, he gets a decent match-up. Langeliers sticks out to me as a great one-off C play, especially for DK purposes.
LAA 5-star plays: Mike Trout, Livan Soto
4-star plays: Shohei Ohtani, Taylor Ward
GPP Note: Team ISO of .186 over the last week.
OAK 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Shea Langeliers
GPP Note: Team ISO of .105 over the last week.
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Arizona Diamondbacks @ Milwaukee Brewers (-235)
Pitchers:
Diamondbacks – Tommy Henry
Brewers – Brandon Woodruff
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. Henry has given up 17 runs over his last 3 starts and 6 HRs over his last 2. Those trends are not great for him in this game, despite the fact that MIL is definitely a below average offense against LHPs. Milwaukee comes in struggling but they still have faint postseason chances so this game is of EXTREME importance to them. Knowing that, I am right back on the Woodruff train to finish the season. I know he struggled against ARI earlier but the trends and circumstances were far different at that time.
ARI 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Josh Rojas, Christian Walker
GPP Note: Team ISO of .121 over the last week.
MIL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Luis Urias, Hunter Renfroe
GPP Note: Team ISO of .102 over the last week.
New York Yankees (-145) @ Texas Rangers
Pitchers:
Yankees – Luis Severino
Rangers – Martin Perez
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. I know that Perez has been really good but the Yankees have some positive history against him and I am not going to bet against Judge hitting his 62nd HR. Severino looks to sharpen up heading into the postseason and he gets the Rangers at a pretty solid time with how they have struggled at the plate overall. I think the Yankees hit 2+ HRs tonight, can we nail who they come from?
NYY 5-star plays: Aaron Judge, DJ LeMahieu
4-star plays: Gleyber Torres, Giancarlo Stanton
GPP Note: Team ISO of .119 over the last week.
TEX 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Nathaniel Lowe
GPP Note: Team ISO of .157 over the last week.
Philadelphia Phillies @ Houston Astros (-125)
Pitchers:
Phillies – Aaron Nola
Astros – Lance McCullers
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. I am really torn on what to do in this game, outside of making sure I get exposure to Altuve. I know that both pitchers are capable of putting up dominant performances but I like both offenses overall. This might end up being a game where I sprinkle in the pitchers while relying on one-off bats and hoping that neither side really dominates one way or another.
PHI 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Kyle Schwarber, Bryce Harper
GPP Note: Team ISO of .148 over the last week.
HOU 5-star plays: Jose Altuve
4-star plays: Jeremy Pena, Yuli Gurriel
GPP Note: Team ISO of .207 over the last week.
San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres (-240)
Pitchers:
Giants – John Brebbia
Padres – Joe Musgrove
Rundown:
This game opened with a total of 7.5. The Giants come into this one in better form than the Padres do. With that said, the Padres side is in the better spot overall. I know that a few Giants bats have had success against Musgrove, so I may not go very heavy on him in my pool. We will have to monitor updates as far as the Giants’ pitching plans to follow Brebbia.
SF 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Brandon Crawford, Joc Pederson
GPP Note: Team ISO of .223 over the last week.
SD 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Manny Machado, Juan Soto
GPP Note: Team ISO of .093 over the last week.
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Kansas City Royals @ Cleveland Guardians (-190)
Pitchers:
Royals – Zack Greinke
Guardians – Triston McKenzie
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7. I was shocked to see such a low total in this game but the more that I think about it, the more it makes sense. McKenzie can be extremely dominant against a team like KC and the CLE lineup has cooled off/might be resting a couple of the regulars as the postseason approaches. I do believe that each side has a solid-strong one-off with the lineup tonight, just a matter of fitting them into your builds.
KC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Drew Waters, MJ Melendez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .155 over the last week.
CLE 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Will Brennan, Steven Kwan
GPP Note: Team ISO of .103 over the last week.
Tampa Bay Rays (-140) @ Boston Red Sox
Pitchers:
Rays – Tyler Glasnow
Red Sox – Rich Hill
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. Since I started this article, the game has moved to a total of 7.5. I am definitely not a believer in Rich Hill, especially when he pitches at Fenway park. He has an ERA of 5.19 and a WHIP approaching 1.50 when at home. Glasnow looked pretty solid in his return from Tommy John but we have to realize that he might not be pushed beyond 4 innings tonight as he threw just 3 innings (50 pitches) in his return.
TB 5-star plays: Randy Arozarena
4-star plays: Yandy Diaz, Wander Franco
GPP Note: Team ISO of .089 over the last week.
BOS 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: JD Martinez, Tristan Casas
GPP Note: Team ISO of .139 over the last week.
Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners (-250)
Pitchers:
Tigers – Bryan Garcia
Mariners – George Kirby
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7. I would love the Mariners in this spot if I believed they were going to be focused on this game. Garcia has shown reverse splits this season and he walks plenty of guys while allowing some HRs. All of that points to some big upside for the SEA lineup. Kirby should be popular tonight and I am not going to argue against it because it makes sense. Haase has been rolling at the plate for DET.
DET 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Eric Haase
GPP Note: Team ISO of .124 over the last week.
SEA 5-star plays: Mitch Haniger
4-star plays: Ty France
GPP Note: Team ISO of .127 over the last week.
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Atlanta Braves (-160) @ Miami Marlins
Pitchers:
Braves – Bryce Elder
Marlins – Jesus Luzardo
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7. The Braves are hitting a TON of HRs right now as they can clinch the division this evening. I know that I generally love Luzardo and I do think he makes a great GPP play, I am going to be heavy on the Braves lineup. Elder has been pitching phenomenally of late and I will be overweight on him as well.
ATL 5-star plays: Austin Riley
4-star plays: Matt Olson, Dansby Swanson
GPP Note: Team ISO of .260 over the last week.
MIA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Bryan De La Cruz
GPP Note: Team ISO of .092 over the last week.
Minnesota Twins @ Chicago White Sox (-125)
Pitchers:
Twins – Bailey Ober
White Sox – Johnny Cueto
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7. Ober just dismantled this CWS team last week but I don’t think he finds the sledding to be easy tonight. I know the White Sox have been a disappointment much of the season but I think this game goes over the total. Minnesota collapsed and while that could destroy them, they have a few guys who are swinging it really well to close out the season and a number of those have hit Cueto really well in their previous match-ups. Minnesota is going to make my top 3 for tonight.
MIN 5-star plays: Jake Cave
4-star plays: Luis Arraez, Gio Urshela
GPP Note: Team ISO of .113 over the last week.
CWS 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Elvis Andrus, Yoan Moncada
GPP Note: Team ISO of .093 over the last week.
Toronto Blue Jays (-135) @ Baltimore Orioles
Pitchers:
Blue Jays – Jose Berrios
Orioles – Dean Kremer
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. My dinger of the day probably comes from this one, it’s just a matter of trusting BvP or recent form more in making my selection. Both teams have hit plenty of HRs over the last week so I do feel like we see some offensive fireworks tonight. We know that Berrios can put up elite performances but I just don’t see one of those coming tonight. UPDATE: The weather looks extremely questionable for this one!
TOR 5-star plays: Vlad Guerrero, Bo Bichette
4-star plays: Teoscar Hernandez, George Springer
GPP Note: Team ISO of .188 over the last week.
BAL 5-star plays: Adley Rutschman
4-star plays: Anthony Santander, Kyle Stowers
GPP Note: Team ISO of .236 over the last week.
Chicago Cubs @ Cincinnati Reds (-135)
Pitchers:
Cubs – Hayden Wesneski
Reds – Hunter Greene
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. I know this game is taking part in a small park but I think both SPs are worthy of strong GPP consideration. Wesneski has been extremely good without much fanfare. We know that Greene allows a ton of HRs but he also has a massive K-rate and that’s always going to be inviting for GPP purposes. I don’t think we want to stack either side but using one-offs from the Cubs makes sense, thanks to the Greene HR issues.
CHC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Ian Happ, Seiya Suzuki
GPP Note: Team ISO of .158 over the last week.
CIN 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jake Fraley
GPP Note: Team ISO of .108 over the last week.
Stacks of the Day: Main Slate
- Toronto Blue Jays (weather looks questionable)
- Los Angeles Angels
- Minnesota Twins
MLB Dinger of the Day – Freddie Freeman, LAD
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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