Similar to MLB DFS, there are going to be player lines that stand out on every slate. One big difference is that you are betting against the house and not other users. Therefore, pick the most favorable over/unders to build the best entry.
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PrizePicks MLB Plays for Tonight…
Oct 2, 2022; Cumberland, Georgia, USA; Atlanta Braves shortstop Dansby Swanson (7) hits a home run against the New York Mets in the first inning at Truist Park. Mandatory Credit: Larry Robinson-USA TODAY Sports
Dansby Swanson O 6fpt / O 0.5r+rbi / O 1.5h+r+rbi
ATL vs PHI
The MLB playoffs are here! All 8 remaining teams will be playing today. Philadelphia will send Ranger Suarez to the mound for game 1. Atlanta has a right-handed heavy team which could pose issues for the lefty, Suarez. Swanson is the 2-hole hitter. He is sandwiched in between Atlanta’s two best bats in Ronald Acuna Jr. and Austin Riley. Suarez is a groundball pitcher but does have significant splits. He allowed a .231wOBA, .107ISO, and 71%GB rate to LHBs but to RHBs, those numbers were noticeably worse at ..326wOBA, .158ISO, and 52%GB rate. The Braves have a 4.5 implied run total which is only 0.1 lower than the Dodgers for the slate-high total. Against Suarez’s top 3 pitches, Swanson has run values of 4, 0, and 9. I like all three of these lines because of the high team total. Suarez has a 10%BB rate against RHBs which would allow Swanson to hit that 0.5r+rbi if he were to be driven home.
Alex Bregman O 5.5fpt
HOU vs SEA
We have a matchup of reverse splits. Logan Gilbert has allowed a .324wOBA, .178ISO, 37.2%FB rate, and 43.3%hard hit rate to RHBs this season. His xERA is nearly a full run higher than his actual ERA. Bregman will see a lot of fastballs and sliders. These are by far the two best pitches Bregman could possibly see. He has run values of 11 and 14 against these two pitch types. Next are the curve and splitter which have 3 run values. In addition, the Mariners bullpen is full of righties who throw fastball and sliders as their two top pitches. Erik Swanson, Diego Castillo, Penn Murfee, Andres Munoz, and Paul Sewald all have the fastball and slider in their repertoire. Some of them also have reverse splits. Bregman hits .305 at home compared to .215 on the road. This could be a big series for Bregman due to the pitches that he will see.
Aaron Judge O 0.5r
NYY vs CLE
Unless you have been living under a rock, you should be familiar with Aaron Judge. Normally, Judge is around a -120 for O 0.5 runs. Well, he is now the Yankee leadoff hitter. His odds for this game to go over this number sit at -150. Cal Quantrill ranks in the 78th percentile in walk rate. However, it does not matter who is on the mound. Opposing teams are electing to walk Judge whenever he comes to the plate. He will likely be on base multiple times in most games. This game is in hitter-friendly Yankee Stadium. That short porch in right suits the #2 hitter, Anthony Rizzo perfectly and will be aided by 5mph winds blowing out to RF. Walks are usually tilting when it comes to taking hitter overs. However, we welcome walks for the run category. We rarely get -150 plays.
Jean Segura U 0.5k
PHI @ ATL
Philadelphia will take on Max Fried in game 1. Fried has a 22.5% K rate to RHBs. That is solid but certainly not dominant. Fried is excellent but we just need Segura to not strike out. He only has a 13.2% K rate against LHPs. He should bat 7th which could cost him 1 AB but that is exactly what we want. The less opportunities he comes to the plate, the lower chance of him striking out. Fried is a very efficient pitcher. His pitching outs are only set at 15.5 but he has no problem getting thru at least 6 innings. The Braves bullpen is strong which is a little bit of a concern. Relievers such as Raisel Iglesias and Kenley Jansen have over 30% K rates against RHBs. Philadelphia is right-handed heavy. However, Segura still has a low 15.7% K rate against RHPs.
Ranger Suarez U 23.5fpt
PHI @ ATL
We unfortunately cannot play Dansby Swanson and Ranger Suarez in the same entries. Suarez will likely face 7 RHBs. He flashed some upside toward the end of last season but really has not been in that form. Suarez has a sub-20% K rate this year. He is not efficient meaning he likely will not record the quality start. The less innings a pitcher works, the lower their win chance becomes. With Max Fried on the other side, he already does not have great odds to record the win. His pitching outs line is set at 15.5 and the under is -155. His strikeout line is at 3.5 and the over sits at -135. Suarez’s run lie is at 2.5. Giving him 5IP, 2ER, 4K would be 21fpt. This is projecting him to over perform his earned runs and strikeout lines. Atlanta has not been as high of a K team in recent weeks. This potent offense is going to make pitchers work. It is a very tough spot for Suarez to open this series.
Just missed the cut: Fried U 33.5pt, Yordan O 1.5h+r+rbi
Final MLB PrizePicks Thought
Remember, ownership is not a factor here. Simply, pick the best lines available.
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