Hello again everybody, and welcome to today’s MLB Full Count breakdown! I’m nilly and I run the carnage report and DraftKings tiers tools. I also coach NASCAR, so be sure to check us out every weekend over there, too. We get a couple of early games, but the real treat is the 14-game main slate that follows. This is the final big slate Friday of the season, so make it a good one! Alas, as the regular season winds down and my work life picks up, this may be my last post this season. If it is, I hope you all have enjoyed my articles this year and had lots of success that will continue into the rest of the NFL season. For now, let’s take a peek at these games and see where we stand!
A look at pitchers
Big slates give us plenty of pitching options, and this one is no different. We have everything from studs facing potent offenses (like deGrom), gas cans facing potent offenses (sorry Kuhl), capable mid-salary pitchers facing weak offenses (hello, Gilbert), and everything in between. As always be sure to check out the coach’s notes page to see who they are most interested in.
Cincinnati Reds at Chicago Cubs
We’ll sneak in an early game first, this one between the Reds and Cubs. Ashcraft and Sampson will get the start here, and Vegas is giving this one a 7.0 total to start. Unfortunately, like yesterday, we get a lot of games in that range today. Well, unfortunate for most offenses at least. It does make the pitching options more fun!
Reds 5 star plays – none
Reds 4 star plays – India, Aquino
GPP note – Sampson comes in with a low strikeout rate and a good chunk of xwOBA and ISO allowed to righties. Going with some righties here could prove useful.
Cubs 5 star plays – none
Cubs 4 star plays – Suzuki
GPP note – Reverse splits are a good way to go here too, as Ashcraft has allowed much more power to righties than he has to lefties lately.
Main slate
Baltimore Orioles at New York Yankees
We’ll start with the main slate now, beginning with the Orioles and Yankees. Lyles and German will get the start here, and with them, an 8.5 total. This game will probably have a healthy chunk of fantasy goodness, though most of it will probably come from the home team.
Orioles 5 star plays – none
Orioles 4 star plays – Rutschman/Santander
GPP note – It’s not a great spot, but German has allowed modest power to lefties, so a contrarian bat or two could be useful.
Yankees 5 star plays – Judge
Yankees 4 star plays – Stanton/Rizzo
GPP note – A great matchup on all fronts, Lyles is another pitcher allowing big reverse splits numbers, so consider some righties outside of just Judge here.
Philadelphia Phillies at Washington Nationals
Next up we have the Phillies and Nationals, with Syndergaard and Sanchez on the mound. This will actually be game two of a double-header, but looking at the forecast, they may have to postpone this one, too. Keep an eye on the sky, as there are some interesting pieces here that we’ll want to be sure are (or are not) playing.
Phillies 5 star plays – Harper
Phillies 4 star plays – Hoskins/Realmuto/Castellanos
GPP note – Another place you can consider some reverse splits bats, Sanchez has allowed much more contact and power to righties in his return.
Nationals 5 star plays – none
Nationals 4 star plays – Meneses/Thomas
GPP note – Syndergaard comes into this game with a low strikeout rate and plenty of power given up to both sides. If this game plays, be sure to run a few bats against him for some cheap potential upside.
Boston Red Sox at Toronto Blue Jays
Pivetta and the Red Sox will take on Manoah and the Blue Jays next, with another 8.5 total coming from Vegas. Personally, I’m feeling the under here, as I think Vegas might be overselling the home team just a bit. We’ll see how it goes, but be sure to watch that line to see if others agree.
Red Sox 5 star plays – none
Red Sox 4 star plays – Devers/Martinez/Bogaerts
GPP note – Manoah can prove a difficult matchup for these bats, but some of these bats are hitting righties for power. It wouldn’t be a bad hedge spot, just in case.
Blue Jays 5 star plays – none
Blue Jays 4 star plays – Springer/Guerrero, Chapman
GPP note – Pivetta can get some strikeouts, but he does allow a good chunk of power to both sides of the plate, so attacking him here from either side is in play.
Kansas City Royals at Cleveland Guardians
Moving on, we next have Singer and my Royals taking on Civale and the Guardians. An uninspiring 7.0 total, I guess that shouldn’t be too surprising considering the matchups here. Both pitchers will have a chance to return some value, and I could see both of them making this one unexciting for the offenses for 4-6 innings.
Royals 5 star plays – none
Royals 4 star plays – Perez/Witt
GPP note – Civale allows modest power to righties, which are probably the only bats worth a look here. I wouldn’t go with big stacks, but some smaller ones could be useful.
Guardians 5 star plays – none
Guardians 4 star plays – Ramirez, Gimenez/Rosario
GPP note – Singer can certainly hold his own, but there’s not a ton of strikeout upside for him and he does allow modest power to lefties. Quite a few of these bats are hitting righties for power, so this could be a good place to grab some small or medium-sized stacks.
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Minnesota Twins at Detroit Tigers
Next up we have Ryan and the Twins set to take on Alexander and the Twins. Another 7.0 total, that’s probably a fair total from Vegas, but I think the Twins will have a good chance to do some damage here. We’ll see if they can carry this one to the over, but I wouldn’t be too surprised if they did.
Twins 5 star plays – Correa
Twins 4 star plays – Miranda
GPP note – Alexander allows plenty of contact and power to both sides, and doesn’t rack up many strikeouts. This could be a good spot for these bats to go off, and their low implied total should keep their ownership down.
Tigers 5 star plays – none
Tigers 4 star plays – Baez
GPP note – Ryan allows good power to righties, so a contrarian bat or two here could be useful, though probably not much else.
New York Mets at Atlanta Braves
We get two of our stud arms next, as deGrom and the Mets will take on Fried and the Braves. A 6.5 total, this is one of the lower totals on the day, and for good reason. You can always hedge here if you can’t make up your mind, which would be hard to do, seeing as all sides of this one are potent.
Mets 5 star plays – none
Mets 4 star plays – Lindor/Alonso
GPP note – Another good hedge spot, Fried allows some power to righties but carries a decent strikeout rate, and we know he has plenty of upside in him. Some of these bats are hitting lefties for power, hence the hedge option.
Braves 5 star plays – none
Braves 4 star plays – Acuna/Harris
GPP note – Same idea as above, though the matchup favors deGrom better.
Miami Marlins at Milwaukee Brewers
We get our lowest total of the day with our next game, a whopping 6.0, which will be between the Marlins and Brewers. Alcantara and Burnes will get the start here, and at least this time we don’t have to dwell over hedging quite as much here. The home team could be a candidate for that, but I don’t think many people will be taking any bets on the Marlins.
Marlins 5 star plays – none
Marlins 4 star plays – none
GPP note – Another tough spot, it’s hard to recommend much, but Burnes does allow some power to both sides. However, it might be best to go contrarian elsewhere.
Brewers 5 star plays – none
Brewers 3.5 star plays – Yelich/Adames
GPP note – Same as above, but these bats are at least more interesting. Alcantara allows power to both sides too, so you can try contrarian bats from either side.
Tampa Bay Rays at Houston Astros
We’ll head down south for our next game, where the Rays will take on the Astros. Rasmussen and Valdez will get the start here, and with them, another 6.5 total. It’s easy to sell Valdez for tournament use, but Rasmussen might require extra convincing.
Rays 5 star plays – none
Rays 3.5 star plays – Arozarena/Franco
GPP note – This isn’t a great spot against Valdez, but these contrarian bats do at least offer some upside. Some hedging could be useful here.
Astros 4 star plays – Alvarez/Altuve
Astros 3.5 star plays – Bregman/Tucker
GPP note – While this isn’t a super great spot, it’s not the worse one could ask for. Rasmussen allows some power to righties, so if you go here, be sure to include some of them.
Pittsburgh Pirates at St Louis Cardinals
Next up we have Oviedo and the Pirates taking on Flaherty and the Cardinals. A 7.5 total, this is another game that I could see going the under by a few runs. If Flaherty comes out as strong as he did in his last performance, that will be an easy task to manage, seeing as Oviedo can hold his own a bit more than what his salary might indicate.
Pirates 5 star plays – none
Pirates 4 star plays – Cruz
GPP note – Flaherty finally had his big comeback outing, so he might be back to form. I’d be careful here.
Cardinals 4 star plays – Goldschmidt/Arenado
Cardinals 3.5 star plays – Nootbaar/Edman
GPP note – Oviedo is inexpensive, but hasn’t allowed much power and home runs seems to be a rare find against him. I’d still take some bats here, but don’t blindly take huge stacks just because he carries such a low salary.
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Late slates
Texas Rangers at Los Angeles Angels
We’ll switch over to the late games next, starting with the Rangers and Angels. Another 7.5 total, we’ll see Otto and Detmers get the start for this one. I do feel like this game has a decent chance of going to the over, so perhaps it could be a source of some lower-owned bats with some upside.
Rangers 5 star plays – none
Rangers 4 star plays – Seager, Semien/Garcia
GPP note – Detmers hasn’t allowed very much power, but does come in with a fair amount of xwOBA allowed to lefties, as well as a low strikeout rate. I’d take a few swings here with some power bats, but maybe not giant stacks.
Angels 5 star plays – Trout/Ohtani
Angels 4 star plays – Ward
GPP note – Otto allows a good chunk of power to righties, so consider some cheaper righties to go along with any Trout/Ohtani exposure you may have.
Oakland Athletics at Seattle Mariners
Next up we have Waldichuk and the Athletics taking on Gilbert and the Mariners. Another 6.5 total, this one could see the under if the Seattle offense forgets to show up. Gilbert will probably handle the A’s fine, making him a good all-purpose starter today at an attractive price.
Athletics 5 star plays – none
Athletics 3.5 star plays – Brown/Kemp
GPP note – It’s hard to get behind these bats, but one or two of them might be okay as a contrarian dart.
Mariners 5 star plays – none
Mariners 4 star plays – Santana/Haniger/France/Suarez
GPP note – This is a good spot for the righties as Waldichuk tends to allow plenty of contact and power to them, but he can be strict to lefties.
Chicago White Sox at San Diego Padres
Martin and the White Sox will take on Darvish and the Padres next, this one taking a huge leap up to a 7.0 total. Weak sarcasm aside, this game feels like some of the other ones today, as one side will probably do all of the heavy lifting for fantasy purposes.
White Sox 5 star plays – none
White Sox 3.5 star plays – Sheets/Moncada
GPP note – If you go here, be sure you’re hedging.
Padres 5 star plays – Soto/Machado
Padres 4 star plays – Drury/Bell
GPP note – Martin comes in with a low strikeout rate and allows a good amount of power to lefties. They don’t have a huge implied total, so consider going heavier here if their projected ownership is lower than expected.
Colorado Rockies at Los Angeles Dodgers
Next up we have Kuhl and the Rockies set to take on Kershaw and the Dodgers. Like the previous game, the home team looks like they’ll do all the heavy lifting here as well. This one may not be at Coors, but with as good of a spot the home team is in, they may as well be.
Rockies 5 star plays – none
Rockies 3.5 star plays – Cron/Grichuk
GPP note – Like the White Sox, if you go here, be sure you’re hedging.
Dodgers 5 star plays – Freeman/Betts
Dodgers 4 star plays – Turner/Smith/Gallo
GPP note – These bats will be chalky but there’s a good chance they will be needed, with how good of a spot this is. You’ll want to find lower-owned secondary stacks or find some other way to help ease the ownership, or you could be bold and fade them in hopes that they fall short somehow.
Arizona Diamondbacks at San Francisco Giants
And finally, we’ll wrap up the day with the Diamondbacks and Giants. Kelly and Cobb will get the start here, and like most of the other games, we don’t get an amazing total. However, it did start at a 7.0 and has worked its way up to a 7.5 already, so maybe there’s some hope for this one.
Diamondbacks 5 star plays – none
Diamondbacks 3.5 star plays – Walker/Marte/Varsho/McCarthy
GPP note – Cobb has been a little up-and-down lately, so you don’t have to avoid these bats. He doesn’t allow a whole lot of power, but a lot of these bats are hitting righties for power, so they’re in play as a contrarian move.
Giants 5 star plays – none
Giants 4 star plays – Yastrzemski/Pederson
GPP note – Kelly can be volatile, as he gets his strikeouts but allows plenty of homers (10 in his last 7 starts), so this makes a good “budget hedge” spot. The power tends to come from lefties, so attack him with traditional splits.
And that’s going to do it for this one. Thanks for joining me, and be sure to check out the coach’s notes page to see who they are most interested in. Best of luck today!
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