Full Slate Breakdown for MLB DFS 9/28:
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My Take on a Consistent MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start an MLB slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target, but gives you a holistic look at the slate as well. Breaking down pitching also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the MLB Carnage Report this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the three pitchers that jumped out to me at first glance, good or bad.
- Aaron Nola
- Justin Verlander
- Josh Winder
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Miami Marlins @ New York Mets (-205)
Pitchers:
Marlins – Jesus Luzardo
Mets – Taijuan Walker
Rundown:
This game opened with a total of 7. Walker has a great match-up but we said that about Carrasco on Monday and we got hit hard by the Marlins. Luzardo has taken a step forward this year but I am not enamored with the match-up for him. The NYM LHBs can hit LHPs decently well and Alonso/Lindor can do a ton of damage.
MIA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Bryan De La Cruz
GPP Note: Team ISO of .171 over the last week.
NYM 5-star plays: Francisco Lindor
4-star plays: Pete Alonso, Brandon Nimmo
GPP Note: Team ISO of .150 over the last week.
Cincinnati Reds @ Pittsburgh Pirates (-120)
Pitchers:
Reds – Luis Cessa
Pirates – Bryse Wilson
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. I definitely have no interest in this game, so it’s a great thing it’s a day game. I have no idea why it’s so early but I won’t complain. If you are playing a single-game contest, I like power guys over the pitching in this one if you make me choose which side to be on.
CIN 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: TJ Friedl
GPP Note: Team ISO of .084 over the last week.
PIT 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Oneil Cruz, Bryan Reynolds
GPP Note: Team ISO of .140 over the last week.
Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants (-)
Pitchers:
Rockies – Jose Urena
Giants – Undecided
Rundown:
We are waiting on the Vegas information. I like the idea of attacking Urena with LH power from the Giants but my issue is that the park is built for pitching and the Giants aren’t exactly world-beaters at the plate these days. I am waiting on the Giants’ pitching decision because I am intrigued by the match-up.
COL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Charlie Blackmon, Ryan McMahon
GPP Note: Team ISO of .118 over the last week.
SF 5-star plays: Brandon Crawford
4-star plays: Lamont Wade, Mike Yastrzemski
GPP Note: Team ISO of .182 over the last week.
Oakland Athletics @ Los Angeles Angels (-190)
Pitchers:
A’s – Adrian Martinez
Angels – Michael Lorenzen
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. I do think that Lorenzen is an interesting guy but he might not have the upside we look for. The total in this game is a bit higher than I would expect. I don’t think I will be looking to fully stack either side but might be sold on mini-stacks from each one.
OAK 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Conner Capel, Seth Brown
GPP Note: Team ISO of .164 over the last week.
LAA 5-star plays: Mike Trout
4-star plays: Shohei Ohtani, Taylor Ward
GPP Note: Team ISO of .130 over the last week.
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St Louis Cardinals @ Milwaukee Brewers (-140)
Pitchers:
Cardinals – Jose Quintana
Brewers – Brandon Woodruff
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7. When I sat down to write this, I was going to surprise and tell you to be on an STL mini-stack but the more that I look at things, the more I think that MIL puts up 5+ runs tonight. I know that I have been anti-MIL when they face an LHP but this match-up favors the middle of their lineup.
STL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Paul Goldschmidt, Lars Nootbar
GPP Note: Team ISO of .196 over the last week.
MIL 5-star plays: Hunter Renfroe
4-star plays: Willy Adames, Andrew McCutchen
GPP Note: Team ISO of .182 over the last week.
New York Yankees (-125) @ Toronto Blue Jays
Pitchers:
Yankees – Gerrit Cole
Blue Jays – Mitch White
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. Judge has 12 walks over the last week. I don’t think the Blue Jays are going to pitch to him at this point. We know what kind of upside Cole offers but I think TOR could be a sneaky mini-stack spot. I also will be going to TOR for one-offs thanks to their power history against Cole.
NYY 5-star plays: Aaron Judge
4-star plays: Gleyber Torres, Anthony Rizzo
GPP Note: Team ISO of .190 over the last week.
TOR 5-star plays: George Springer
4-star plays: Vlad Guerrero, Cavan Biggio
GPP Note: Team ISO of .240 over the last week.
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Houston Astros (-195)
Pitchers:
D’Backs – Zac Gallen
Astros – Justin Verlander
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 6.5. Well, well, well, what do we have here? I absolutely love this pitching match-up! Verlander has a shot to wrap up his Cy Young resume with a great performance. Gallen was on an absolute tear and while his streak came to an end, he’s still been a stud for a weak team.
ARI 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Pavin Smith
GPP Note: Team ISO of .117 over the last week.
HOU 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jose Altuve, Kyle Tucker
GPP Note: Team ISO of .162 over the last week.
Los Angeles Dodgers (-140) @ San Diego Padres
Pitchers:
Dodgers – Julio Urias
Padres – Joe Musgrove
Rundown:
This game opened with a total of 7.5. I like this pitching match-up a bit as well but the only difference is that Musgrove hasn’t been as dominant against his opponent. The Dodgers have a few guys with great BvP but they aren’t swinging it overly well at the moment. Urias is my choice for NL Cy Young right now and I think a great performance here goes a long way for him.
LAD 5-star plays: Freddie Freeman
4-star plays: Max Muncy, Justin Turner
GPP Note: Team ISO of .119 over the last week.
SD 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Manny Machado
GPP Note: Team ISO of .158 over the last week.
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Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers (-130)
Pitchers:
Royals – Daniel Lynch
Tigers – Matt Manning
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. We have a match-up between teams that I rarely want exposure to. I do think that mini-stacks are very viable in this one with solid BvP and recent form. I wouldn’t blame you for looking at either pitcher but if I had to choose, it’d be Manning for me in GPPs and only on DK, to be honest.
KC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Salvador Perez, Bobby Witt
GPP Note: Team ISO of .190 over the last week.
DET 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Javy Baez, Willi Castro
GPP Note: Team ISO of .105 over the last week.
Tampa Bay Rays @ Cleveland Guardians (-120)
Pitchers:
Rays – Tyler Glasnow
Guardians – Triston McKenzie
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 6.5. I want to hold off on this game a bit as we really need to learn what the plan is for Glasnow in his return. Since this is the first-look article, I am lost as far as what to expect. If he’s being given a 5-6 inning leash, I am intrigued even though CLE isn’t a huge K match-up. McKenzie has a TON of upside for GPP purposes.
TB 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Wander Franco, Randy Arozarena
GPP Note: Team ISO of .109 over the last week.
CLE 5-star plays: Steven Kwan
4-star plays: Jose Ramirez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .187 over the last week.
Texas Rangers @ Seattle Mariners (-165)
Pitchers:
Rangers – Martin Perez
Mariners – George Kirby
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7. I am going to mainly be on the pitching in this game. I think that Kirby offers a ton of upside with a decent floor while Perez might be a pure upside play while SEA has been on the struggle bus to close out the season. A couple of the SEA bats have had success against Perez so there is a route to them waking up.
TEX 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Adolis Garcia
GPP Note: Team ISO of .129 over the last week.
SEA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Eugenio Suarez, Mitch Haniger
GPP Note: Team ISO of .136 over the last week.
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Atlanta Braves (-225) @ Washington Nationals
Pitchers:
Braves – Jake Odorizzi
Nationals – Josiah Gray
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. I love attacking Gray with power as he allows so many HRs. He does offer K ability as a really deep GPP play but I just don’t think I can get there with how strong I think the ATL lineup is for tonight. Odorizzi gets a plus match-up so he needs to be in our pitcher pool tonight.
ATL 5-star plays: Austin Riley
4-star plays: Matt Olson, Travis d’Arnaud
GPP Note: Team ISO of .157 over the last week.
WSH 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Nelson Cruz (not sure that he plays)
GPP Note: Team ISO of .121 over the last week.
Chicago White Sox (-115) @ Minnesota Twins
Pitchers:
White Sox – Johnny Cueto
Twins – Josh Winder
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. We just saw Ober completely shut down the White Sox last night and that should raise a flag for us. What flag is that you might ask? Well, I think it signals a bit of a give-up by the White Sox. Maybe not give-up as much of being hit with the disappointment of the season and no postseason. I don’t want to use many Twins bats but I do think a few make sense against Cueto. Winder has shown glimpses of being dominant (mostly early on).
CWS 5-star plays: Gavin Sheets
4-star plays: Yoan Moncada
GPP Note: Team ISO of .125 over the last week.
MIN 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Matt Wallner, Luis Arraez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .102 over the last week.
Baltimore Orioles @ Boston Red Sox (-115)
Pitchers:
Orioles – Deam Kremer
Red Sox – Rich Hill
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. We have seen all the runs put up in this series so far. I can’t bet against them doing the same thing at this point. The Red Sox are racking up hits in this series, while the Orioles keep racking up HRs. I don’t think we need to consider either pitcher in hopes of getting different.
BAL 5-star plays: Anthony Santander
4-star plays: Ryan Mountcastle, Austin Hays
GPP Note: Team ISO of .240 over the last week.
BOS 5-star plays: Alex Verdugo
4-star plays: JD Martinez, Xander Bogaerts
GPP Note: Team ISO of .159 over the last week.
Philadelphia Phillies (-190) @ Chicago Cubs
Pitchers:
Phillies – Aaron Nola
Cubs – Hayden Wesneski
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7. Nola is going to end up on my very short list of top pitching options on the slate. He’s a big favorite on the road while the total suggests that it’s going to be cold and windy at Wrigley. I wanted to be on the PHI bats but the weather will probably push me away.
PHI 5-star plays: Kyle Schwarber
4-star plays: JT Realmuto, Rhys Hoskins
GPP Note: Team ISO of .126 over the last week.
CHC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Willson Contreras
GPP Note: Team ISO of .103 over the last week.
Stacks of the Day: Main Slate
- Atlanta Braves
- Baltimore Orioles
- Boston Red Sox
MLB Dinger of the Day (x3 for fun!) – Hunter Renfroe, Austin Riley, George Springer (MIL-ATL-TOR)
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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