Full Slate Breakdown for MLB DFS 9/27:
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My Take on a Consistent MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start an MLB slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target, but gives you a holistic look at the slate as well. Breaking down pitching also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the MLB Carnage Report this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the three pitchers that jumped out to me at first glance, good or bad.
- Hunter Greene
- Carlos Carrasco
- Logan Webb
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Miami Marlins @ New York Mets (-220)
Pitchers:
Marlins – Pablo Lopez
Mets – Carlos Carrasco
Rundown:
This game opened with a total of 7. I love the pitching match-up but I might grab a sneaky NYM stack as a bunch of them have hit Lopez really well in their careers. Carrasco should be extremely popular in a great match-up, with the Mets needing to keep the pressure on ATL for the division title.
MIA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Bryan De La Cruz
GPP Note: Team ISO of .170 over the last week.
NYM 5-star plays: Francisco Lindor
4-star plays: Brandon Nimmo, Jeff McNeil
GPP Note: Team ISO of .178 over the last week.
Cincinnati Reds @ Pittsburgh Pirates (-115)
Pitchers:
Reds – Hunter Greene
Pirates – Mitch Keller
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7. The current PIT roster has 7 Ks in 15 PAs against Greene this season. It’s not uttered often but I really like the pitching match-up in a game between the Reds and Pirates. Keller looks to be turning a bit of a corner in his career and while he is always a risk to blow up, the Reds aren’t very dangerous. On the other side, Greene has impressive K ability but his HR rate is really worrisome. Neither is cash safe for me.
CIN 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jonathan India
GPP Note: Team ISO of .086 over the last week.
PIT 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jack Suwinski, Bryan Reynolds
GPP Note: Team ISO of .140 over the last week.
Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants (-190)
Pitchers:
Rockies – German Marquez
Giants – Logan Webb
Rundown:
This game opened with a total of 7. The Vegas total is extremely low but each side has a few guys who have a positive history against the opposing pitcher. Webb should carry a lot of ownership and I agree with it. He’s been really good when pitching at home at the MLB level and we know how weak the overall COL lineup is away from home.
COL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Charlie Blackmon, Ryan McMahon
GPP Note: Team ISO of .152 over the last week.
SF 5-star plays: Brandon Crawford
4-star plays: Lamont Wade, Wilmer Flores
GPP Note: Team ISO of .173 over the last week.
Oakland Athletics @ Los Angeles Angels (-210)
Pitchers:
A’s – James Kaprielian
Angels – Patrick Sandoval
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. I know that I will be overweight on Sandoval in this one. I want to be on the LAA bats but the overall lineup is so damn weak. Sandoval seems like an excellent play with some safety pitching at home. Trout and Ward are my preferred bats but we can always add in Ohtani.
OAK 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jordan Diaz
GPP Note: Team ISO of .183 over the last week.
LAA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Mike Trout, Taylor Ward
GPP Note: Team ISO of .123 over the last week.
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St Louis Cardinals @ Milwaukee Brewers (-115)
Pitchers:
Cardinals – Miles Mikolas
Brewers – Adrian Houser
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. I was really shocked by the fact that Houser is a favorite against STL. He hasn’t been very good on the season and I find the STL lineup to be more dangerous overall. I know the MIL lineup probably has more HR upside from top to bottom but power slumps more. We shouldn’t have a ton of interest in either pitcher, to be honest.
STL 5-star plays: Paul Goldschmidt
4-star plays: Dylan Carlson, Lars Nootbar
GPP Note: Team ISO of .159 over the last week.
MIL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Rowdy Tellez, Garrett Mitchell
GPP Note: Team ISO of .174 over the last week.
New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays (EVEN)
Pitchers:
Yankees – Jameson Taillon
Blue Jays – Jose Berrios
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. My initial reaction to the Vegas info is, holy shit that total seems really low for this match-up. When I looked into the BvP history, I see more things to like in regards to the offenses. I would not be shocked to see this total approach 8.5 by the first pitch.
NYY 5-star plays: Aaron Judge
4-star plays: Gleyber Torres, Anthony Rizzo
GPP Note: Team ISO of .229 over the last week.
TOR 5-star plays: Teoscar Hernandez
4-star plays: Vlad Guerrero, Bo Bichette
GPP Note: Team ISO of .240 over the last week.
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Houston Astros (-225)
Pitchers:
D’Backs – Zach Davies
Astros – Lance McCullers Jr.
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. When I first noticed the total, I thought it was off. Then I began to look into recent form and I see why with how cold the overall HOU lineup has been. I do really think that this is a get-hot series for them leading up to the postseason. McCullers is definitely intriguing and worth a decent chunk of our ownership.
ARI 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Christian Walker, Ketel Marte
GPP Note: Team ISO of .116 over the last week.
HOU 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jose Altuve, Aledmys Diaz
GPP Note: Team ISO of .112 over the last week.
Los Angeles Dodgers (-120)@ San Diego Padres
Pitchers:
Dodgers – Tyler Anderson
Padres – Blake Snell
Rundown:
This game opened with a total of 7.5. I really wanted to suggest Joey Gallo in hopes of getting laughed at but I just can’t. He is 3 for 5 with 2 HR against Snell. This one really has me lost at first glance. I want to believe the Dodgers pick it up heading into postseason play but Snell has been really good and the Padres need to pick up a few wins over the next week. I won’t be fully stacking either side but there are a handful of mini-stacks that make sense to me.
LAD 5-star plays: Will Smith
4-star plays: Freddie Freeman, Mookie Betts
GPP Note: Team ISO of .140 over the last week.
SD 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Brandon Drury, Ha Seong Kim
GPP Note: Team ISO of .169 over the last week.
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Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers (EVEN)
Pitchers:
Royals – Zack Greinke
Tigers – Joey Wentz
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. Aside from Wentz’s first MLB appearance this season, he has been really solid for the Tigers. I wonder if that can continue over what should be two starts to close out the 2022 season. I generally love to pick on Greinke but I really don’t know how we can pick on him with this DET lineup.
KC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Salvador Perez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .198 over the last week.
DET 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Miguel Cabrera, Jeimer Candelario
GPP Note: Team ISO of .146 over the last week.
Tampa Bay Rays @ Cleveland Guardians (-145)
Pitchers:
Rays – Corey Kluber
Guardians – Shane Bieber
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7. The CLE lineup has really turned it on as the season winds down and while I really like how Kluber can still get outs, I have to be on the CLE stack. Bieber gets TB at a great time and he just needs to avoid the two guys below and I think he ends up with a top 5 performance on the slate.
TB 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Wander Franco, Randy Arozarena
GPP Note: Team ISO of .109 over the last week.
CLE 5-star plays: Steven Kwan
4-star plays: Andres Gimenez, Jose Ramirez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .187 over the last week.
Texas Rangers @ Seattle Mariners (-210)
Pitchers:
Rangers – Jesus Tinoco
Mariners – Robbie Ray
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. I know that Ray has been very erratic with the Mariners but this really feels like a get sharp type of a spot for him. He has definitely been at his best when pitching at home and the opponent should help him out a bit as he tries to help SEA wrap up a postseason berth. Kelenic has come back up to the MLB level on a mission and a no-fun attitude. I like seeing that as I was always told that I performed my best when I was pissed off.
TEX 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Marcus Semien
GPP Note: Team ISO of .111 over the last week.
SEA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Ty France, Jarred Kelenic
GPP Note: Team ISO of .173 over the last week.
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Atlanta Braves (-220) @ Washington Nationals
Pitchers:
Braves – Kyle Muller
Nationals – Paolo Espino
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. The Braves have plenty of favorable BvP to go along with the fact that they woke up the power bats yesterday. Muller hasn’t fared well at the MLB level but he does get one of the weakest lineups in baseball. I will keep singing the praises of Meneses, he’s been so damn impressive. Somehow this guy is a career minor leaguer who is already 30 but the dude just keeps hitting at the MLB level.
ATL 5-star plays: Austin Riley
4-star plays: Matt Olson, Marcel Ozuna
GPP Note: Team ISO of .129 over the last week.
WSH 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Joey Meneses
GPP Note: Team ISO of .103 over the last week.
Chicago White Sox (-120) @ Minnesota Twins
Pitchers:
White Sox – Lance Lynn
Twins – Bailey Ober
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7. We get a series between two of the biggest disappointments of the 2022 season. The Twins absolutely collapsed with all of their injuries and inexperience while the White Sox never really got it going in a season where they were the odds on favorite to win the Central. I wouldn’t be shocked by a couple of HRs in this game, mainly from Sheets or Correa.
CWS 5-star plays: Gavin Sheets
4-star plays: Jose Abreu, Yoan Moncada
GPP Note: Team ISO of .135 over the last week.
MIN 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Carlos Correa, Luis Arraez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .099 over the last week.
Baltimore Orioles @ Boston Red Sox (-130)
Pitchers:
Orioles – Kyle Bradish
Red Sox – Michael Wacha
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. Monday night’s game might still be going on yet, I haven’t looked. I don’t say that because it went extras, I say it because they just kept scoring runs. I like both teams against reverse splits pitching today. The Orioles really intrigue me with their upside but realize that Wacha has been absolutely dominant at home this season. Boston might be a sneaky GPP winning stack tonight.
BAL 5-star plays: Cedric Mullins
4-star plays: Ryan Mountcastle, Austin Hays
GPP Note: Team ISO of .101 over the last week.
BOS 5-star plays: Kike Hernandez
4-star plays: JD Martinez, Rafael Devers
GPP Note: Team ISO of .195 over the last week.
Philadelphia Phillies (-165) @ Chicago Cubs
Pitchers:
Phillies – Zack Wheeler
Cubs – Marcus Stroman
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 6.5. I have to assume we get wind blowing in with colder temps in Chicago. I really like the Phillies but I will need to pay attention to all the weather updates as the day goes on. Wheeler went 4 innings and threw just 58 pitches in his return but he looked really strong. I would think he gets to 75-80 pitches and that might be enough to be a top tier option against this Chicago lineup.
PHI 5-star plays: Kyle Schwarber
4-star plays: JT Realmuto, Rhys Hoskins
GPP Note: Team ISO of .165 over the last week.
CHC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Ian Happ
GPP Note: Team ISO of .109 over the last week.
Stacks of the Day: Main Slate
- Atlanta Braves
- New York Yankees
- Baltimore Orioles
MLB Dinger of the Day – Teoscar Hernandez, Toronto
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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