Full Slate Breakdown for MLB DFS 9/18:
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My Take on a Consistent MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start an MLB slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target, but gives you a holistic look at the slate as well. Breaking down pitching also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the MLB Carnage Report this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the three pitchers that jumped out to me at first glance, good or bad.
- Spencer Strider
- Sandy Alcantara
- Jacob deGrom (duh, obvious)
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Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves (-267)
Pitchers:
Phillies – Bailey Falter
Braves – Spencer Strider
Rundown:
This game opened with a total of 7.5. We know the elite upside that Strider offers us with his K ability. He hasn’t had any troubles with PHI outside of an HR allowed to Schwarber. I was thinking Falter had faced ATL before but he hasn’t. He has allowed 12 HRs to RHBs at the MLB, this season. I like Riley to wake up against him.
PHI 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Brandon Marsh, Kyle Schwarber
GPP Note: Team ISO of .245 over the last week.
ATL 5-star plays: Austin Riley
4-star plays: Ronald Acuna
GPP Note: Team ISO of .144 over the last week.
Miami Marlins (-190) @ Washington Nationals
Pitchers:
Marlins – Sandy Alcantara
Nationals – Anibal Sanchez
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. Man, I wish the MIA lineup wasn’t so bad because I love to pick on Anibal. Alcantara should put up a great performance against the WSH lineup and makes a ton of sense in all kinds of contests. I can’t wait to see what his K props are because I might look to ladder them.
MIA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Joey Wendle, Jordan Groshans
GPP Note: Team ISO of .111 over the last week.
WSH 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Joey Meneses
GPP Note: Team ISO of .147 over the last week.
Colorado Rockies @ Chicago Cubs (-130)
Pitchers:
Rockies – Ryan Feltner
Cubs – Javier Assad
Rundown:
This game opened with a total of 9.5. When I see this total at Wrigley, I generally get excited as it means we likely have wind factoring in. I don’t love either offense initially so I am going to have to dig in deeper this morning. Right now, I am thinking that I will lean towards more mini-stacks and one-offs.
COL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Ryan McMahon
GPP Note: Team ISO of .118 over the last week.
CHC 5-star plays: Ian Happ
4-star plays: Zach McKinstry
GPP Note: Team ISO of .159 over the last week.
New York Yankees (-178) @ Milwaukee Brewers
Pitchers:
Yankees – Gerrit Cole
Brewers – Jason Alexander
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. There is plenty of power in this game but we have two completely opposite pitchers on the mound. I wouldn’t be shocked if Judge gets to Alexander for 2 bombs today. I know, I know, I’m really walking out on a ledge with that statement. Adames and Yelich have been rolling but it is Cole, what do we do?
NYY 5-star plays: Aaron Judge
4-star plays: Gleyber Torres, Josh Donaldson
GPP Note: Team ISO of .202 over the last week.
MIL 5-star plays: Willy Adames
4-star plays: Christian Yelich
GPP Note: Team ISO of .198 over the last week.
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San Diego Padres (-155) @ Arizona Diamondbacks
Pitchers:
Padres – Yu Darvish
D’Backs – Ryne Nelson
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. Darvish has allowed 5 HR to ARI in the last 2 starts against them. Nelson was great in his debut, against SD, and then he went out and dominated the Dodgers in start #2. ARI has some very intriguing BvP in their favor but I kind of think Yu shows some vintage stuff today.
SD 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jurickson Profar, Juan Soto
GPP Note: Team ISO of .142 over the last week.
ARI 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Ketel Marte, Corbin Carroll
GPP Note: Team ISO of .148 over the last week.
Pittsburgh Pirates @ New York Mets (-480)
Pitchers:
Pirates – Johan Oviedo
Mets – Jacob deGrom
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 6.5. We get all the Mets action today. deGrom needs to be the highest-owned pitcher on the main slate while I want to target bats against Oviedo. I know the Mets have a ton of LHBs but it’s the RHBs that I really want against Oviedo’s reverse splits.
PIT 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Bryan Reynolds
GPP Note: Team ISO of .164 over the last week.
NYM 5-star plays: Francisco Lindor
4-star plays: Tomas Nido, Pete Alonso
GPP Note: Team ISO of .198 over the last week.
Los Angeles Dodgers (-178) @ San Francisco Giants
Pitchers:
Dodgers – Andrew Heaney
Giants – Alex Cobb
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. There are some weather concerns for this Sunday night baseball game, so make sure you check out our Weather Station! The Dodgers are in a plus spot with either BvP or how they’ve been dominating at the plate. Heaney has big-time K ability but he’s also capable of getting hit around a bit.
LAD 5-star plays: Freddie Freeman
4-star plays: Max Muncy, Mookie Betts
GPP Note: Team ISO of .216 over the last week.
SF 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Wilmer Flores, David Villar
GPP Note: Team ISO of .075 over the last week.
Cincinnati Reds @ St Louis Cardinals (-285)
Pitchers:
Reds – Luis Cessa
Cardinals – Jordan Montgomery
Rundown:
This game opened with a total of 8. Montgomery is in a very strong spot and I could see him being who I pair with deGrom on DK in my main lineup. Cessa offers us reverse splits to attack and the Cards definitely have a handful of strong RHBs for GPP play. Dickerson has had strong at-bats against him.
CIN 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Kyle Farmer
GPP Note: Team ISO of .125 over the last week.
STL 5-star plays: Nolan Arenado
4-star plays: Paul Goldschmidt, Corey Dickerson
GPP Note: Team ISO of .132 over the last week.
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Kansas City Royals @ Boston Red Sox (-205)
Pitchers:
Royals – Kris Bubic
Red Sox – Nick Pivetta
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 10. Man oh man, what the hell do we do with this game? We are looking at a total of 10 but the game is between two teams that have a COMBINED ISO of .160 over the last week. I have no desire to use either pitcher but do I have to force in multiple stacks of each team?
KC 5-star plays: Bobby Witt
4-star plays: Salvador Perez, Michael Taylor
GPP Note: Team ISO of .082 over the last week.
BOS 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: JD Martinez, Xander Bogaerts
GPP Note: Team ISO of .078 over the last week.
Oakland Athletics @ Houston Astros (-350)
Pitchers:
A’s – Ken Waldichuk
Astros – Framber Valdez
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. This one is very similar to the Mets game with deGrom. Valdez is in a great spot while the RHBs for HOU happen to be in a great spot as well. The question becomes, does Alvarez stay hot in a LvL match-up? My initial answer is a resounding yes.
OAK 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Dermis Garcia
GPP Note: Team ISO of .198 over the last week.
HOU 5-star plays: Yordan Alvarez
4-star plays: Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman
GPP Note: Team ISO of .273 over the last week.
Texas Rangers @ Tampa Bay Rays (-205)
Pitchers:
Rangers – Glenn Otto
Rays – Jeffrey Springs
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7. Springs has been really impressive this season but he has given up a bunch of HRs to the guys below, from Texas. Otto isn’t that strong of an SP so I want to get TB stack exposure but the issue is that the overall TB lineup has slowed down a bit the last week.
TEX 5-star plays: Marcus Semien
4-star plays: Nathaniel Lowe, Sam Huff
GPP Note: Team ISO of .244 over the last week.
TB 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Yandy Diaz, Isaac Paredes
GPP Note: Team ISO of .107 over the last week.
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Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays (-205)
Pitchers:
Orioles – Dean Kremer
Blue Jays – Alek Manoah
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. I don’t mind grabbing a one-off BAL bat against Manoah but I just don’t see myself wanting to stack against him. TOR bats do intrigue me but right now I think I want mini-stacks more than full stacks against Kremer.
BAL 5-star plays: Adley Rutschman
4-star plays: Gunnar Henderson
GPP Note: Team ISO of .149 over the last week.
TOR 5-star plays: Bo Bichette
4-star plays: Vlad Guerrero, Matt Chapman
GPP Note: Team ISO of .125 over the last week.
Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Angels (-125)
Pitchers:
Mariners – Marco Gonzales
Angels – Reid Detmers
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. I could honestly see this game turning into an HR fest today. Right now, Trout is at the top of my Dinger of the Day because of how well he has performed against Marco plus, duh, he’s Mike Trout. I hope J-Rod returns to the lineup for the Mariners.
SEA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Julio Rodriguez, Carlos Santana
GPP Note: Team ISO of .259 over the last week.
LAA 5-star plays: Mike Trout
4-star plays: Shohei Ohtani
GPP Note: Team ISO of .200 over the last week.
Chicago White Sox (-165) @ Detroit Tigers
Pitchers:
White Sox – Johnny Cueto
Tigers – Drew Hutchison
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. Cueto was scratched yesterday but gets the start today. He probably needs to carry a bit of ownership but he never excites me. The White Sox bats need to get back to being hot but they are trending towards their return to struggling.
CWS 5-star plays: Gavin Sheets
4-star plays: Andrew Vaughn, Eloy Jimenez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .162 over the last week.
DET 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jonathan Schoop
GPP Note: Team ISO of .108 over the last week.
Minnesota Twins @ Cleveland Guardians (EVEN)
Pitchers:
Twins – Joe Ryan
Guardians – Cody Morris
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. The Twins absolutely need to win this one and they might be in the better spot after last night’s game went on forever. Ryan needs to step up and provide 7 innings. Morris walks a ton of guys right now and I think the Twins find a way to get him out around the 4th inning.
MIN 5-star plays: Carlos Correa
4-star plays: Luis Arraez, Gio Urshela
GPP Note: Team ISO of .139 over the last week.
CLE 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jose Ramirez, Oscar Gonzalez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .134 over the last week.
Stacks of the Day: Main Slate
- New York Yankees
- New York Mets
- Atlanta Braves
MLB Dinger of the Day – Mike Trout, LAA
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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