Similar to MLB DFS, there are going to be player lines that stand out on every slate. One big difference is that you are betting against the house and not other users. Therefore, pick the most favorable over/unders to build the best entry.
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PrizePicks MLB Plays for Tonight…
Aug 7, 2022; Los Angeles, California, USA; Los Angeles Dodgers starting pitcher Tyler Anderson (31) throws a pitch against the San Diego Padres during second inning at Dodger Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jonathan Hui-USA TODAY Sports
Tyler Anderson O 4k / O 30.5fpt
LAD vs SF
Anderson’s strikeout line should probably be 4.5. 4 gives us the possibility of a push. I expect this line to be bumped up some time soon. When it does, I would prefer the fantasy points then. San Francisco is currently dealing with a plethora of injuries. They put out a pretty poor lineup last night against another lefty, Andrew Heaney. The Giants actually won the game but they are heavy underdogs tonight. Their usual players who play against LHPs are hurt. This leaves a very high K lineup including Lewis Brinson, JD Davis, Evan Longoria, David Villar, and Joey Bart. 4 strikeouts just seems very obtainable. There is no listed starter yet for the Giants, but there are rumors that Wei-Chieh Huang could be called up to start this game. This should put Anderson in a great position for the win.
Jesus Luzardo U 28.5fpt
MIA @ PHI
Luzardo has great stuff but this is just a very tough matchup against the Phillies. Since August 1, Philadelphia has a 140 wRC+, .317 avg, and .408 BABIP against LHPs. That wRC+ ranks 3rd while the batting average and BABIP are both first in the league. This game will be played at Citizens Bank Park so Luzardo will not be pitching in his home pitcher-friendly ballpark. The Phillies are among the best at working counts which will drive Luzardo’s pitch count up. This will make it difficult for Luzardo to go 6 innings to get the quality start. It would not be surprising to see Luzardo give up more than 3 runs against this high-powered offense. He is projected for 5 strikeouts according to the odds. If he cannot go 6 innings, it will be very tough to score at least 29 fantasy points especially with Aaron Nola starting on the other side.
Joe Musgrove U 37.5fpt
SD vs ARI
This might be surprising but the Arizona Diamondbacks have been hitting right-handed pitching extremely well as of late. Since August 1, they have a 111 wRC+ which ranks 6th in the league. Not only can they hit, but also they do not strike out. They have a 16.5% K rate which is the lowest in the league against RHPs in that time span. Merrill Kelly is a quality pitcher and the Padres offense has been a letdown since the Juan Soto trade. One of their other acquisitions, Brandon Drury, is out of the lineup with a concussion. Musgrove’s odd for the win are not the best tonight. Even if he gets the win, a line of 6IP, 2ER, 5K, QS, would only net him 37fpt. He would need to earn the win and outperform a certain stat.
Rafael Ortega O 0.5tb
CHC vs CIN
The Chicago Cubs will be back at home today. They play significantly better there as opposed to on the road. Chicago will be hosting the Cincinnati Reds and Justin Dunn. Dunn has probably pitched better than expected. However, his xERA is 6.46 compared to his actual ERA which sits at 4.63. His other numbers really do not look good. Against LHBs, Dunn is allowing a .409wOBA, .289ISO, 48.6% flyball rate, and 54.1% hard hit rate. These numbers are eye-opening. Ortega has been hitting in the 6th spot against RHPs. The one concern is that Dunn and Ortega both have high walk rates. However, Ortega is at 0.5tb, not 1.5. All he needs is a single. Usually, these 0.5tb lines are for batters who are hitting around .200. Ortega is hitting .233 on the year with an XBA of .235.
Randy Arozarena O 6.5fpt
TB vs BOS
Arozarena hits 2nd or 3rd against LHPs. The Rays do have some of their regulars back so he could also hit 4th. Wherever he hits in the order, he will be in a great spot against Rich Hill. Hill is pretty much a two-pitch pitcher against RHBs. Arozarena absolutely rakes against those two pitches, the fastball and curveball. He has run values of 7 and 6, respectively. One issue for Arozarena is his high strikeout rate. Hill ranks in the 27th percentile in Ks, 14th in whiff rate, and 17th in chase rate. Hill allows a .324wOBA and .204ISO to RHBs this season. Arozarena has a .365wOBA and .206ISO against LHPs. For a lefty, Hill does not particularly hold runners well. Arozarena has 27 steals on the year which ranks 4th in the league. This gives him an extra way of obtaining fantasy points.
Just missed the cut: Riley O 1.5tb, Acuna O 1.5tb, Quintana O 82.5pt, Hoskins O 6.5fpt
Final MLB PrizePicks Thought
Remember, ownership is not a factor here. Simply, pick the best lines available.
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