Similar to MLB DFS, there are going to be player lines that stand out on every slate. One big difference is that you are betting against the house and not other users. Therefore, pick the most favorable over/unders to build the best entry.
Hello DFS Army fans! I am William and am super excited to be a part of the MLB staff this season. Feel free to call me Will and you can find me @wlin018 on Twitter. These articles are written many hours before lock so the lines could change. The lines will be adjusted as people place bets or the player could be removed from the board. To find the most up-to-date player lines with the best edge, check out our MLB Prizepicks Tool. This tool is included as part of our VIP subscription which you can get your first month for free by signing up and depositing on PrizePicks! There is even another bonus which you will find at the end of this article…
PrizePicks MLB Plays for Tonight…
Sep 7, 2022; St. Louis, Missouri, USA; St. Louis Cardinals starting pitcher Jordan Montgomery (48) pitches against the Washington Nationals during the first inning at Busch Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Curry-USA TODAY Sports
Jordan Montgomery O 5k
STL vs MIL
This line might move to 6 by game time. On the year, Milwaukee has a 26% K rate vs LHPs. Cutting the sample size down to August 1 until now, the Brewers strike out at a 29.2% which ranks 2nd most in the league only by 0.1% behind the Marlins. This game will be played in St. Louis. On the road, Milwaukee has an even higher K rate at 30.9% and only a 57wRC+. The Brewers simply struggle to even make contact against LHPs. Every single batter in teh projected lineup has a K rate north of 23.8% against left-handed pitching. Montgomery’s strikeout rate has dropped about 3% from last season but still sits at 21.3%. The last time he faced Milwaukee, he went 6 shutout innings with 8Ks. This line is a misprice and will bump before the game starts.
Ken Waldichuk U 24.5fpt
OAK @ TEX
Waldichuk has had two serviceable starts in the majors. Those two opponents were the Nationals and Braves. The start against Atlanta was in Oakland. He will be facing the Rangers away from his pitcher-friendly ballpark. Waldichuk’s xERA sits at 3.44. However, his xFIP is at 6.07. Since August 1, Texas has a 17% K rate and a league-leading 171wRC+ against LHPs at home. The Rangers recently called up top prospect Josh Jung who is off to a great start. This is an extremely troubling start for the youngster. RingCentral Coliseum ranks as the 3rd best pitcher’s park including allowing the 2nd least amount of HRs. He now heads into Arlington which is about a league average stadium. Both the QS and win seem unlikely meaning he will have to rack up the strikeouts. This Rangers lineup just is not the right matchup for Waldichuk.
Michael Kopech O 4k
CWS vs COL
Kopech returned from injury and threw 74 pitches. His pitches thrown line is set at 85.5. The Rockies struggle mightily when they play away from Coors Field. Since August 1, they have a 24.9% K rate on the road against RHPs. Koepch’s strikeouts have mysteriously dipped this season but did show what he is still capable of with 11 Ks against the Tigers. The Rockies offense really is not much better. Kopech should get at least 5 strikeouts in this one pitching at home. A line of 4 gives us the opportunity for at least a push if things do not go as planned.
C.J. Cron U 7fpt / Charlie Blackmon U 7fpt
COL @ CWS
Going to the opposite side of Kopech, the Rockies bats do not perform on the road. For some reason, Cron and Blackmon’s fantasy scores are set at 7. These are numbers we see when they are playing at home. Kopech has reverse splits and Cron and Blackmon actually both share these reverse characteristics as well this season. Kopech uses a fastball and slider against RHBs and relies heavily on the fastball against LHBs. Cron has a -9 run value against the slider, bats over 60 points lower on the road, and has a third of the home runs in close to the same amount of ABs as at home. Blackmon has a a -11 run value against the fastball and bats over 40 points lower on the road compared to home.
Yordan Alvarez O 1.5tb
HOU @ DET
If walks were not a thing, Alvarez would go over 1.5 total bases plenty of times. Walks are going to be an issue today again going up against Drew Hutchison. Hutchison has a 9.7% walk rate ranking in the 26th percentile. Alvarez leads the Astros with a 14.5% BB rate against RHPs. Now on to the positives. The Astros will be the road team which will allow them to hit in the top of the 9th. This could mean an extra AB for Alvarez. Hutchison sues the fastball, slider, and changeup against LHBs. Alvarez has run values of 22, 5, and 6 against these three pitches. These are the three pitches he hits best. We know how great of a hitter Alvarez is. Hopefully, he does not get crushed by walks. If he gets to swing the bat, this is an excellent spot.
Just missed the cut: Alcantara O 98.5pt, JRod O 6.5fpt
Final MLB PrizePicks Thought
Remember, ownership is not a factor here. Simply, pick the best lines available.
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